Here's a recent M* interview of Christine Benz on the topic.
https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/260559/do-market-forecasts-really-matter.aspx
Well on the glass half full side, it kinda disproves one poster's incessant claims that ALL forecasts (except his) are ALWAYS wrong, ALL the time!
FWIW, we use forecasts in a manner similar to what CB suggests, to help shape LT planning assumptions. We annually look briefly at a different forecasts but look daily/weekly at a lot of different T/A's work.
We take deep dives into WHY they are making their respective T/A conclusions. (We spend far more time on T/A than forecasts.) Then like our process of selecting PMs for active funds, we look at who has worthy LT performance records and who are making similar, strong cases for their conclusions. (Note the PM hurdle is consistent S&P outperformance.)
Forecasts are more like guardrails for LT planning, while the aggregate work of T/A's we follow and trust play a large part in our investment strategy, mostly ST, but at times relatively LT as well.

I came across the following study which evaluates and ranks 68 market forecasters.
Although the study is from 2017, I believe overall results are still pertinent today.
Major finding: the majority of forecasters perform at levels not significantly different than chance,
which makes it very difficult to tell if there is any skill present.
• Across all forecasts, the accuracy is around 48%.
• Two-thirds of forecasts predict as far as only a month.
• Only one-third of forecasts predict periods over one month.
• Two-thirds of forecasters have an accuracy level below 50%.
• Only about 6% of forecasters have their accuracy values between 70% and 79%.
• The highest accuracy value is still below 80%.
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/afca/37db6aa17f5be8e5d1ebb93c40cf52413123.pdf
SSRN paper

mkt is voting things are ok and chaos ceases 'soon enough'.
potential is valid for trump to realize more trade bribes are not arriving, gets bored, and tariffs mostly normalize.
apollo data show ~95% negative indicators, and a few point things will take longer to 'fix'.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf
(broken link corrected)

Here is the related filing:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1936157/000199937125004898/cefz-485apos_042825.htm

Thanks.
It's good to hear Bengen.
His 4% initial w/COLA is a good start, or a good benchmark.
But there are many approaches - variations of Bengen's, dynamic approaches, increasing equity gradually in retirement, % withdrawals with or without residual values.
I have explored my own that is a bit more flexible - start with 5% initial and review every 5 yrs and reset if portfolio balance is higher. Another is modification of SWR to SWRM.
All this means that the retirement withdrawal problem is still searching for a satisfactory solution decades after Bengen's pioneering work.

Yeah my parents are taking a very flexible approach to this as they ease into retirement. they are working part time because their hobby/passion even in retirement is their work. But beyond that they are W/D 5% of the portfolio and taking trips, annoying their children by spoiling their grandchildren and just paying attention to the balance while holding a 2 year cash bucket (will go to 3 when fully retire).
I took their 8 fund capital group portfolio and turned it into a single fund capital group portfolio. its a 65/35 portfolio its a single balanced fund and very easy to manage.
I read about 5 books FOR them on the subject and in the end I was like this isn't that difficult at least as it appears.

I think the biggest mistake I'm making today is being in the market.

Right there with ya @Mark. Does feel a bit like standing on the deck of the Titanic.

That might qualify as wishful thinking here! Leonardo still appeared to have happy thoughts about a possible roll in the hay with Kate while standing on the deck!
The Titanic's intended distance of the longest leg of the voyage, from Queenstown to New York, USA, was 2,825 miles. It made it very far, but sank only about 400 miles before its intended destination.
Conversely, we are only ~100 days into an intended ~1,460 day hallucinogenic trip of sorts, have already taken on a LOT of water, and are clearly starting to list, with many patrons feeling pretty much dead in the water.
Perhaps you meant to say, "...hanging on the deck of the Titanic as it was going vertical"?

There is a PRCFX Prospectus Supplement that indicates change to daily accrual and payment of monthly dividend on the 1st of the month. Websites, including Price itself, have yet to catchup.
It looks like a sudden change. Supplement dated 3/7/25 became effective 3/19/25 for the new Prospectus dated 3/1/25.
Daily accrual with monthly payments is usual for bond funds, but a bit unusual for allocation funds - maybe posters can point out other examples for conservative-allocation funds.
https://www.troweprice.com/literature/public/country/us/language/en/literature-type/prospectus/sub-type/mf?productCode=CFN&currency=USD
"T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation and Income Fund
Supplement to Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated March 1, 2025
On or about March 19, 2025, the fund will begin to declare dividends daily, rather than monthly, and will pay them the first business day each month. Capital gains will continue to be declared and paid annually, usually in December....."

In T Rowe Price April 2025 distribution table, PRCFX / PRCHX is shown as N/A. Looks like skipped for some reason.
https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/planning/tax/dividend-distributions/mutual-funds/2025-monthly-distributions.html

https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/planning/tax/dividend-distributions/mutual-funds/2025-monthly-distributions.html
No APRIL-2025 divy for PRCFX listed at TRP's website.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886244/000110465925040257/tm2512919d2_497.htm
The UBS Funds
Prospectus Supplement | April 28, 2025
Includes:
• UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund
Dear Investor,
The purpose of this supplement to the Prospectuses for UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund (the "Fund"), a series of The UBS Funds (the "Trust"), dated October 28, 2024, previously supplemented, is to notify you that the Board of Trustees (the "Board") of the Trust has approved certain actions to liquidate and dissolve the Fund.
UBS Asset Management (Americas) LLC ("UBS AM"), the investment advisor to the Fund, has announced that it will cease to offer the investment strategy pursued by the Fund (the U.S. Small Cap Growth strategy). Based upon information provided by UBS AM, the Board determined that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to liquidate and dissolve the Fund pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation (the "Plan").
The liquidation is expected to be completed on or about August 1, 2025 (the "Liquidation Date"). The liquidation may be delayed if unforeseen circumstances arise.
Liquidation of the Fund
The Plan provides that: (a) all the Fund's assets be converted into cash or cash equivalents or be otherwise liquidated and (b) the Fund distribute pro rata to its shareholders all of its existing assets, in a complete liquidation of the Fund. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may exchange their shares of the Fund for shares of the same class of any Family Funds ("Family Funds" include other UBS Funds, PACE Select funds and other funds for which UBS Asset Management (US) Inc. serves as principal underwriter), as described under "Managing your fund account—Exchanging Shares" in the Prospectuses. Shareholders may also redeem their shares of the Fund and receive the net asset value thereof, pursuant to the procedures set forth under "Managing your fund account—Selling shares" in the Prospectuses.
On the Liquidation Date, all remaining shareholders will have their accounts liquidated and the proceeds will be delivered to them. The liquidation will be considered a taxable transaction, and shareholders may recognize a gain or loss for Federal income tax purposes. Shareholders may wish to consult their tax advisers regarding the effect of the Fund's liquidation in light of their individual circumstances.
In preparation for the liquidation of the Fund, the Fund's assets may be invested in money market instruments or held in cash. In this regard, the Fund will no longer be investing with a goal of achieving its investment objective, but instead to position for liquidation. To the extent the Fund holds cash or cash equivalents rather than securities or other instruments in which it primarily has invested, the Fund risks losing opportunities to participate in market appreciation and may experience potentially lower returns than the Fund's benchmark or other funds that remain fully invested.
ZS-1277
Closure of Fund to new investments and exchanges
Given the upcoming liquidation, the Board has approved the closure of the Fund to new investments, effective May 5, 2025, with the following two exceptions: (1) additional purchases by existing shareholders through certain retirement plans, for whom the closure date is July 1, 2025, and (2) purchases by existing shareholders through dividend reinvestment. This means that effective May 5, 2025, purchases by new investors, additional purchases by existing shareholders, and purchases through exchanges from other funds will cease, except as noted above. The Fund reserves the right to change this policy at any time. Of course, shareholders will continue to be able to exchange or redeem their shares in accordance with the policies in the Prospectuses, as noted above.
Elimination of contingent deferred sales charges on redemptions
Also in connection with the liquidation, effective May 5, 2025, all contingent deferred sales charges ("CDSC") assessed on redemptions that are charged on Class A shares (on purchases over $1 million) are eliminated. With respect to exchanges of shares of the Fund for shares of another Family Fund, the length of time you held your shares of the Fund will still be considered when determining whether you must pay a CDSC when you sell the shares of the Family Fund acquired in the exchange.
Effective August 1, 2025, the Prospectuses, which also offer other series of the Trust, are revised to delete in their entirety all references to the Fund.
PLEASE BE SURE TO RETAIN THIS IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
2
The UBS Funds
Supplement to the Statement of Additional Information | April 28, 2025
Includes:
• UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund
Dear Investor,
The purpose of this supplement to the Statement of Additional Information ("SAI") for UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund (the "Fund"), a series of The UBS Funds (the "Trust"), dated October 28, 2024, previously supplemented, is to notify you that the Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved certain actions to liquidate and dissolve the Fund.
The liquidation of the Fund is expected to be completed on or about August 1, 2025. In connection with the Fund's liquidation, effective August 1, 2025, the SAI is revised to delete in its entirety all references to the Fund.
PLEASE BE SURE TO RETAIN THIS IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
ZS-1278

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370177/000139834425007944/fp0093430-1_497.htm
497 1 fp0093430-1_497.htm
RIVERNORTH FUNDS
RiverNorth Core Opportunity Fund
Retail Share Class
(Ticker Symbol RNCOX)
Institutional Share Class
(Ticker Symbol RNCIX)
April 28, 2025
SUPPLEMENT TO PROSPECTUS DATED
January 28, 2025
The RiverNorth Core Opportunity Fund to convert to an Exchange Traded Fund.
At a meeting of the Board of Trustees (the "Board") of RiverNorth Funds held on April 23, 2025, the Board unanimously voted to approve, subject to shareholder approval, an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization and Termination (the “Plan”) to reorganize the RiverNorth Core Opportunity Fund (the “Fund”) into the RiverNorth Active Income ETF, an exchange traded fund (“Acquiring Fund”) which will be a series of the Elevation Series Trust (the “Reorganization”). The Acquiring Fund is being formed for the purpose of effecting the Reorganization, and the Acquiring Fund will not have engaged in any business prior to the Reorganization. RiverNorth Capital Management, LLC, the investment adviser to the Fund, would serve as the Acquiring Fund’s investment sub-adviser and TrueMark Investments, LLC would act as the Acquiring Fund’s investment adviser.
The Reorganization is subject to shareholder approval and shareholders should expect to receive proxy materials in May 2025. If approved by shareholders, the Reorganization is expected to occur early in the third quarter of 2025.
The Plan approved by the Board of Trustees also contains provisions for the merging of the Fund’s Class I share class into the Class R share class and the termination of the Fund’s Class R share Rule 12b-1 plan at future dates to be determined. These steps will align the Fund’s fee structure with the Acquiring Fund’s proposed fee structure.
Additional information regarding the proposed Reorganization will be included in the upcoming proxy materials and additional supplements to the Fund’s prospectus.
RIVERNORTH FUNDS
c/o ALPS Fund Services, Inc.
1290 Broadway, Suite 1100
Denver, Colorado 80203
1-888-848-7569
Please retain this supplement with your Prospectus for future reference.

To fund the SEC, Section 31 transaction fees are levied when equities and ETFs are sold.
These fees will be temporarily removed until at least the next periodic review.
Section 31 transaction fees are miniscule.
"The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that starting on May 14, 2025,
the fee rates applicable to most securities transactions will be set at $0.00 per million dollars."
"Consequently, each SRO will continue to pay the Commission a rate of $27.80 per million for covered sales occurring on charge dates through May 13, 2025, and a rate of $0.00 per million for covered sales occurring
on charge dates on or after May 14, 2025."
https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/fee-rate-advisories/2025-2
https://www.supermoney.com/encyclopedia/sec-fee

Reversal today came at 5553 (Yahoo Hist. Data).

David Blanchett researched how average spending evolves during retirement.
He discovered that spending tends to decline in today's dollars
for younger retirees especially those entering their 70s.
At around age 90 to 95 spending can increase sharply
often because of significant health care costs¹.
Blanchett calls this the "retirement spending smile."
https://retirementresearcher.com/retirement-spending-smile/
¹ Many retiree's spending keeps decreasing in today's dollars for their entire lives.

@Junkster, EGRIX is a less predictable brother of EIDOX in the medium term, but it has performed much better than EIDOX during the last five months. I do not invest in it now, but I consider returning to it. And I like QMNNX and BISAX.

I'm unclear as to what is the ER of QMNNX - AQR Equity Market Neutral Fund? I see anywhere from 1.59% to 5.38%. Can anyone clarify?

Somebody knows who made those trades but will we ever know. They'll just sow more chaos so this becomes a 5th page story. Just export another US citizen or three.

Prior MFO post on CCLFX; there are also related posts in MFO/MFOP Ratings thread.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/182683/#Comment_182683
Morningstar has an updated feature on CCLFX - how it became the biggest interval-fund. There is also a good background on interval-funds.
"Along with privately held Cliffwater, big sponsors like Blackstone, Blue Owl Capital, Ares, KKR, and Apollo Global Management have been loading up on capital raised through open-ended evergreen funds that are registered as 1940 Act vehicles. More than new 30 such products hit the market in the past two years, according to Morningstar, and there were more than 115 vehicles in the interval category (AUM $93.4 billion) alone through February."
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/how-cliffwater-interval-funds-led-private-wealth-fundraising-bonanza

Thanks.
It's good to hear Bengen.
His 4% initial w/COLA is a good start, or a good benchmark.
But there are many approaches - variations of Bengen's, dynamic approaches, increasing equity gradually in retirement, % withdrawals with or without residual values.
I have explored my own that is a bit more flexible - start with 5% initial and review every 5 yrs and reset if portfolio balance is higher. Another is modification of SWR to SWRM.
All this means that the retirement withdrawal problem is still searching for a satisfactory solution decades after Bengen's pioneering work.

On April 9, 2025, someone risked $2.5 million on SPY call options—and walked away with $70+ million in under an hour. The trade was placed at 1:01 pm. At 1:30 pm, Trump announced tariff pauses. The market exploded upward. These options that cost 85 cents were suddenly worth more than $25. Similar trades occurred in SPY 504, 505, 507, and QQQ contracts as well, suggesting that the total take may have been far larger.
We don’t know who placed the trades. We don’t know what they knew. But we do know this: if they were guessing, they guessed better than almost anyone in modern market history. And if they weren’t guessing, then someone made a fortune off of information the public didn’t yet have.

70-million-in-60-seconds-how-insider-information-helped-someone-28x-their-money/