I’ve looked at CAT in the past and taken a pass. I incorrectly felt it had some AG ties - but a quick check today revealed it does not have much, if any. As you say, it’s cyclical. A serious recession could affect it a lot. Note the thread now running on home sales (prices down). FWIW I recently bought a little RIO and it bounced nicely. Plan to hang on. Also, like CAT, a bellweather of the economy.
It appears Morningstar is positive on CAT according to their in depth March 31 analysis. I’ve found their analysis of individual stocks pretty good - far superior to what they generally offer-up for funds.
“ … after reporting 2024 results, we reduced our fair value estimate to $422 per share from $425, reflecting Caterpillar's modestly weaker guidance for 2025.” (CAT closed at $306.45 Friday.)
Agree it looks appealing as a long term value play - a small part of a larger more diverse basket of stocks or other risk assets.

I am looking at GQFPX as my next add.

@Observant1, good move! Moving from QLTY to MRFOX certainly reduces the Mag 5 stock exposure (no Tesla and NVIDA). MRFOX is the opposite of QLTY where the largest sector is consumer discretionary, and not technology. Tho fund managers are doing a good job navigating different sectors in mitigating market risk. This fund reminds me of Fidelity Low Priced Stocks in the early days.
For now I am researching the new GMO “quality” ETFs, and GQG funds with the goal to reduce Mag 7 stock exposure.

@Observant1, good move! Moving from QLTY to MRFOX certainly reduces the Mag 5 stock exposure (no Tesla and NVIDA). MRFOX is the opposite of QLTY where the largest sector is consumer discretionary, and not technology. Tho fund managers are doing a good job navigating different sectors in mitigating market risk. This fund reminds me of Fidelity Low Priced Stocks in the early days.
For now I am researching the new GMO “quality” ETFs, and GQG funds with the goal to reduce Mag 7 stock exposure.

Thanks to @bee. Both WealthTrack shows with Mary Ellen Stanek and Nick Sargen are excellent in light of today tariffs environment.
Stanek is the PM of Baird core-Plus bond fund. She provided a summary on Baird’s bond strategy to explore opportunities created in the market volatility.
Sargen has been around since the Nixon administration under Paul Volker. His perspective on the current condition is spot on! There are lots of great information on this. Please take time and watch this. One of Nick advice is diversifying internationally (my comments under parentheses):
1. European stocks are much more attractive on valuation basis (PE 11 vs 20+, US)
2. Potentially decoupling between US from developed markets (this has started since February 2025 as part of the deglobalization)
3. Pay attention to your investment horizon that recovery may take longer than expected (for retirees this a great reminder)

Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 25 April 2025. Flows remain updated through 19 April.
Things generally continue to recover in April, but SPY and QQQ still underwater for year: -7.4% and -5.8%, respectively. And both even more off their January highs, which helps explains the sour mood. Both below their 10-mo average.
AGG sitting at a nice +2.8%, trending up again, fortunately.

"President Donald Trump, while en route to Italy for Pope Francis’ funeral, seemed to be more focused on football."
Reminiscent of one of his predecessors.
"On Nov. 15, 1969, the Vietnam Moratorium Committee staged what [was] believed to be the largest antiwar protest in United States history when as many as half a million people attended a mostly peaceful demonstration in Washington."
"On the day of the November march, Nixon devoted the morning to foreign policy and announced to reporters that he was going to spend the afternoon the right way: 'It was a good day to watch a football game.'"
I'd reference a Pete Seeger song of the era but I wouldn't want to be accused of playing the Nazi card.

Yet, a large plurality voted him into office---AGAIN. Seems to me that holding any hope for the country entails an expectation that about half the country will grow a spine and a brain and a conscience, rather quickly. Chances? Nil.

@Crash, I'm a little more optimistic; 5% with spine and brain growth (or maybe slightly more for insurance) would be just enough. even counting the usual level of dirty tricks and outright cheating on the right. Dump's approval rate among independents as of early this last week is 29% (NY Times-Sienna poll.)

Sorry. It is a typo. SFGIX is the correct one. Both the investor and institutional shares are closed to new investors for some time. However, Andrew Foster and his team also run the smaller value-oriented fund, and it is open. However, only the institutional share is available - $25K minimum and $49.95 at Fidelity.

SIVLX is the symbol for the value fund. I purchased this week. First equity fund I have bought in many a moon. Hope I don’t jinx it,

@Junkster, I am a fan of Paul Espinosa and have owned Seafarer Overseas Value Fund for a few years now. Why are you interested in the fund?

@Mona nothing more than an international datelining play this Tuesday due to the action in our markets that day coming after the huge decline Monday, Will stay with it, maybe increase, until it begins to retrace back to my entry point, More to this story but that is the gist of it. Also a lucky trade as they used fair market pricing on Tuesday. Also bought EIDOX that day as it has been my go to emerging market debt fund over the years, I have been super bullish since that 65 to 1 day a few weeks back. But I prefer junk bond and emerging market debt funds to equity on such signals. Had I used an equity fund back then would have been stopped out. Now let’s hope everything doesn’t unravel next week.
Edit: The smart people here are the ones in funds like BISAX who have stuck with it in spite of all the naysayers calling for the end of the world.

Pretty impressive 4-day bear market rally based largely on hopes of tariff deals and an oversold condition, despite an increasingly ominous economic outlook.
That said, here's commentary on that S&P 5,500 target level again! See video at ~1:55.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/25/were-getting-close-to-a-technical-confirmation-of-a-bottom-says-3fourteen-researchs-warren-pies.html
Art Cashin (RIP): "I learned long ago that hope is not a viable investment strategy."
YMMV.
--------------------
Aside: Scoring TOT's Term 2 S&P performance at home:
Four UP weeks
Ten DOWN weeks
PTD: -7.86%

This is the LAST ONE of the series. Hoping the numbers helped a bit.
AND, for today only (Friday, April 25); although you've probably already looked. NICE price gains in bond related areas, with lower yields, as of 5:30pm, EST.
NOTE: for below list. TIP indicated +.50% post market
--- AGG = +.37% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.03% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.08% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEF = +.38% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +.05% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- TLT = +.74% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- BAGIX = +.42% (Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = +.53% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- HYG = +.09% (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
U.S. Dollar Index Data indicated +.21% @99.59 @ 5:30pm.

Sorry. It is a typo. SFGIX is the correct one. Both the investor and institutional shares are closed to new investors for some time. However, Andrew Foster and his team also run the smaller value-oriented fund, and it is open. However, only the institutional share is available - $25K minimum and $49.95 at Fidelity.

SIVLX is the symbol for the value fund. I purchased this week. First equity fund I have bought in many a moon. Hope I don’t jinx it,

@Junkster, I am a fan of Paul Espinosa and have owned Seafarer Overseas Value Fund for a few years now. Why are you interested in the fund?

Have any of these indicators ever met up with the current idiot in charge?
Stay tuned and keep your finger on the button.

Not an "indicator" per se, but a veteran T/A pulled off this Daily Double of sorts during the buffoon's current term, per my post on another thread from April 23:
As it turns out, not all T/A are created equal!
One particular T/A from BellCurveTrading has, even in these seemingly blindfolded times, successfully projected and predicted the recent, respective index tops AND the respective index % drawdowns that we've seen to date. Pretty remarkable!
Today on CNBC he stated these levels as the likely bottoms on the respective indexes:
S&P: 4,500-4,100
N100: 16,000-14,500
Dow: 35,000-33,000

Announcing 'trade deals' is going to become the 2025 version of 'Infrastructure Week' I think...
https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-stuns-time-magazine-with-outlandish-claim-when-they-confront-him-on-zero-trade-deals/

Thanks for the update. Here's the details on that:
https://www.investopedia.com/stocks-trigger-100-percent-accurate-bullish-signal-after-3-day-rally-11722168#:~:text=Stocks on the New York,within a 10-day period.
Excerpt:
Since the 1940s, the S&P 500—or its predecessor index before 1959—has averaged a 6-month return of 14.8% and a 12-month return of 23.4% after ZBT signals.
And a contrarian/skeptical view from Tom McClellan:
Excerpt:
ZBT's Long-Term Record Is Spottier
Interesting stuff.
I too will however be skeptical of it as an accurate indicator THIS (bizarro world) TIME until the S&P makes a meaningful move above 5,500 and takes out the 50% (5,491) and 61.8% (5,646) Fibo retracement levels.
FWIW, no chance I would at this level add new money or re-deploy our stock sale proceeds from our March 31 SELLs (with S&P at 5,612) into Domestic stocks. We did however re-deploy some on April 21 with the S&P at 5,158. YMMV.

For those who have joined MFO relatively recently (i.e. any time after 2011)-
I realize that this is going to sound a little strange, but many parts of the MFO platform were designed by a fellow who called himself Accipiter, if I remember correctly. He worked from a remote geographical location with only a dial-up modem for communication. His record shows that he had made 2,350 visits to MFO before 2015, and most of those "visits" involved his programming work here.
2,350 visits, via a glacially slow dial-up modem to construct the underpinning of MFO. Who among us would have the dedication or patience to do something like that?
He was positively brilliant and worked his butt off for a very long time to design many of the MFO features which we still use today. Due to the wear and tear of time, there have been changes in web addresses and such which have rendered some of his gadgets somewhat flaky.
Remember that MFO is pretty much a volunteer operation, and has only the resources available which can be supported by our infrequent financial contributions. It's a real wonder that MFO is still here at all.

Sorry. It is a typo. SFGIX is the correct one. Both the investor and institutional shares are closed to new investors for some time. However, Andrew Foster and his team also run the smaller value-oriented fund, and it is open. However, only the institutional share is available - $25K minimum and $49.95 at Fidelity.

SIVLX is the symbol for the value fund. I purchased this week. First equity fund I have bought in many a moon. Hope I don’t jinx it,

Yesterday the rare Zweig breath thrust was triggered. (Zweig’s other momentum indicator had been triggered a few weeks ago) Twitter was all a flutter with this infallible indicator. Carson Research shows 19 signals since 1943. In all instances the S@P was up six and 12 months later by an average of 15% and 23% respectively. There were other breath thrust indicators this week also such as the Triple 70 to name just one.

@Observant1
Is this fund available as NTF?
I see it as fees only option at Schwab and Fido.

@rmt,
I only checked Fidelity and Schwab.
Subsequent TF fund purchases can be made for $5 at Fidelity
or $10 at Schwab when the appropriate buy options are selected.
Fidelity
ARDBX - $49.95 transaction fee, $2,500 min. to invest
MIEIX - not available, other share classes available
Schwab
ARDBX - $49.95 transaction fee, $1 min. to invest
MIEIX - $49.95 transaction fee, $1 min. to invest

You gotta commend market participants for trying a coupla times now, but the S&P NOT rising above the 5,500 level appears to help validate the views of many T/A's who believe it will be the upper level of the trading range for the time being.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p21909272695&a=412512122&listNum=86

Sorry. It is a typo. SFGIX is the correct one. Both the investor and institutional shares are closed to new investors for some time. However, Andrew Foster and his team also run the smaller value-oriented fund, and it is open. However, only the institutional share is available - $25K minimum and $49.95 at Fidelity.