Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts Anxious to see how the bond markets respond to Fed day Wednesday as well as the following day, I usually have an opinion (which thankfully I never base my trades on) but haven’t the slightest idea of how the markets will react Wednesday and Thursday. If forced to wager a guess, still looking for a move down to 3.
50% in the ten year and lower by end of 2024.
The past few months have been nirvana for bond traders and investors. And YTD many bond funds are already up double digits. How long can this continue? Besides the two funds I mentioned last month as well as my MBS fund, I also hold an emerging markets debt fund. Rising gold, falling dollar, lower Fed funds ahead of us and investor apathy on the various boards towards emerging markets are just a few of the reasons. I also wanted a fund with more fixed rate debt as much of what I own are funds with a larger proportion to floating rate. The CLOs bond ETFs just keep rolling on as does HOSIX, a CLO OEF. The later has also been great substitute for cash. Curious to see how the CLOs respond this week.
Lastly, wanted some exposure to the subprime non agency RMBS market much akin to IOFIX. But wouldn’t touch that one with a ten foot pole. So found a fund that has a foothold there but with a far better track record YTD than IOFIX.
Edit. To contradict my feelings about the 10 year above. If the economy was weakening why are junk bonds at all time historic highs. Not what you would see if a recession is on the horizon.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV
Talking 2025 Tax & COLA Adjustments
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. Been adding to home builder stocks, DHI (DR Horton) and PHM (Pultegroup). Still pretty small positions overall but I want to play the trend. My biggest holding in that arena is BLDR (Builders Firstsource) which I've bought and sold a few times over the years. Also been moving more MM cash to existing bond funds, CSOAX (Credit Suisse strategic income) and IGIB (iShares 5-10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond)... FWIW.
Tech XLK Rebalancing September rebalance of
XLK won't be much in the news for a good reason. It changed to proportional reduction in weights of the largest
5%+ holdings, rather the the old stupid "stick it to smallest of the
5%+ bunch". This is GOOD.
Edit/Add. Rebalance date 9/20/24 after market close. Effective date 9/23/24.
https://x.com/YBB_Finance/status/1835671248182862197
Lower rates, wall of monies looking for a home? I'm cribbing some of my response to the Crossing Bridge thread. The return period under discussion is since April 30.
I added CBLDX to the bond fund gaggle in my IRA because it had a positive return in 2022. I'm guessing XONE would have too. Since April 30 XONE is up 2.87 to CBLDX's 2.54.
The rest of my deck chairs are THOPX, up 5.08%, USTB up 4.72, and TBUX up 3.05. Stock Charts doesn't seem to recognize WSHNX. These funds all had various negative returns in 2022
As you can see, a mix of shorter durations and credit qualities. By this time next year I expect 'll have this list narrowed down considerably.
All of these buys have been commented on in the buy, sell, why thread.
I'll leave a small amount in the mmk in my IRA in case of unforeseen buying opportunities.
I am definitely staying on the short side of duration since I am inclined to think that amnesia is a comorbidity with inflationary periods. I don't trust either party to avoid foolish behavior after the election is over and everyone is seated. I do follow the Anna Karenina formula, which I paraphrase here: Happy families are all alike. Unhappy families are each unhappy in their own way.
I'm not interested in complex alternatives to bonds.
Crossing Bridge question I added CBLDX to the bond fund gaggle in my IRA because it had a positive return in 2022. I'm guessing XONE would have too. Since April 30 XONE is up 2.87 to CBLDX's 2.
54.
The rest of my deck chairs are THOPX, up
5.08%, USTB up 4.72, and TBUX up 3.0
5. Stock Charts doesn't seem to recognize WSHNX. These funds all had various negative returns in 2022
As you can see, a mix of shorter durations and credit qualities. By this time next year I expect 'll have this list narrowed down considerably. So I'm not too worried about key-man risk.
Per
@Devo's point two: Team management seems to work well for some companies that have been around a long time. Some companies have deep analytic benches. PRWCX was a successful fund before Giroux took over. Am I the only one that likes to look up older funds on older editions of Kiplingers on google books?
Lower rates, wall of monies looking for a home? If you liked ”CDs/Tbills/MMKT funds” a year ago, you should love them now. On a relative basis they’ve gotten cheaper. Both the S&P and NASDAQ are ahead more than 27% year-over-year. I wouldn’t be throwing new money into the latter.
“Walls of money” is a curious figure of speech. Apparently reference to cash-centric investors who were happy to settle for 5 - 5.5% returns, but who are disillusioned at the prospect of 4 - 4.5%? It’s all relative. The higher rates were available as consumer prices spiked 5 or 6% year-over-year. With annual price rises coming in at half that (or less) the return on safe money should be lower - a lot lower.
If the question is about where to get the best short-term interest rates now, it’s a good question. I don’t really know. You pretty much have to “go with the flow” and take what’s available (if you want super-safe money). If you have a 3 year time horizon … maybe short to intermediate term bond funds? NEAR was mentioned recently. I’m looking at that and also TDTT. For 5 years out I’m using CVSIX and LQDH for my conservative money. Should net a percent or so over cash. But over shorter periods both have the potential to lose money.
BTW - TBUX is highly rated. But it is what it is - an ultra-short bond fund. (“Nothing to see here. Move on.”)
SmartETFs Advertising & Marketing Technology ETF (MRAD) will be liquidated
Crossing Bridge question Pardon a dumb question - Why is it harder to manage a larger amount? To wit - Buffett claims he could do better as a small investor because adding to and disposing of holdings wouldn’t cause as much price change / front-running. But that’s a different issue. I can’t see where 5 different managers managing $1.5B ($300M each) would necessarily improve performance. How much does Giroux manage?
Purely an academic question / no involvement in the funds under discussion.
Lower rates, wall of monies looking for a home? @Baseball_Fan. Asking myself the very same question. If this bunch of low risk money is in a taxable account the answer will be different than if a tax deferred situation. Are you willing to increase the risk level for this pile of money? Is it money you will want access to in the next 36 months or so? Sorry,,,,, more questions than answers. We knew that
5% risk free wouldn’t last forever …
BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024 Fred thanks,
that's good info. Last week, NVHAX lost 1.3% and NHMAX -0.95% while other HY Munis made money.
Crossing Bridge question A proxy for estimating how CBLDX might do once the Fed cuts interest rates may be to look at how the fund has done since the 2-year treasury note peaked this year at
5.04% on April 30 (It now stands at 3.
57%)
Since April 30:
CBLDX +2.
54%
TBIL +2.00% (3-Month T-Bill)
OSTIX +3.76%
SHYG +
5.70%
PYLD +7.60%
BINC +
5.47%
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?CBLDX,TBIL,OSTIX,SHYG,PYLD,BINCPS: Set number of days to 9
5 to match April 30 start date.
Crossing Bridge question Hello sfnative. I too, have thought the same about whether the extremely talented and skillful money manager David Sherman is being stretched too thin. The depth of his security analysis is phenomenal as illustrated in his quarterly commentaries, which I greatly appreciate. But how many securities can be scrutinized to that degree? I don't know. Only Mr. Sherman and his team know that answer.
According to the most recent CrossingBridge Funds SAI, David Sherman manages roughly $1.5B and his assistant manager Kirk Whitney manages $315M. Perhaps Mr. Sherman could address whether he perceives this as being an issue going forward, and if so, how he plans to mitigate it (close CBLDX?). Thanks for the question, sfnative.
Mike
WealthTrack Show Sept 14 Episode - Part 2 with Whitney Tilson
Former fund manager turned financial journalist Whitney Tilson shares lessons learned from knowing and studying great investors Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and Bill Ackman.
