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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • NAESX
    NAESX Vang. sm-cap index.
    AUM = $46.7 BILLION. Stocks held = 1,451. "Other" holdings = 14. Just 1.37% of the money is held in its top 5 positions. Talk about spread-out! But with $46.7B, I suppose it would be like steering an aircraft carrier with a rudder meant for a 2-stroke diesel fishing scow.
  • Get the same stock market returns with half the risk
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-the-same-stock-market-returns-with-half-the-risk-2014-06-06?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
    Since 1985, some 80% (edit: make that 75%) of my total returns have come from bond funds, primarily junk related. But the key was when I had a smaller account, the returns came from sector funds ala tech/telecom/health in the roaring 90s and to a lesser extent stock index futures before that. I'm at the point now financially where I doubt I will ever again buy individual stocks or even an equity mutual fund. Boring maybe but I don't need any meaningful drawdown in my nest egg at this stage in my life.
    Junkster,
    Congratulations and I am thrilled to see you posting!
    Mona
  • A Character Assassination (closed)
    Coming from a relatively new member here. I enjoy the comments of most of the posters. Even if the post is long, I still look forward to any tidbits of knowledge. The personal attacks are the big turnoff. Old_Joe mentions the alpha male concept and he is spot on. Every forum has a few.
    My process on the links of one member here is that out of the 30 or so he puts up there are only about 3-5 that I pick to read. Usually have of those are disappointments. They are more of a tabloid than educational.
    I hope some of the old timers come back. I miss the info they provided.
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Close Higher On Jobs Data
    Small caps move into the green for 2014
    Jun 6 2014, 15:03 ET Seeking Alpha
    This just in: Continuing to bounce from a tough 10-week stretch which saw the index lose about 10% of its value from the start of March, the Russell 2000 (IWM +0.9%) has turned positive for the year.
    The small cap index, however, continues to trail the S&P 500 which is ahead 5.7% YTD, as well as the Nasdaq, which is up 3.4%.
    Besides some off beat Alt funds(bear market/inverse) ,M* shows only Small Growth and China Funds with negative average returns Y T D.
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/
  • Get the same stock market returns with half the risk
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-the-same-stock-market-returns-with-half-the-risk-2014-06-06?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
    Since 1985, some 80% (edit: make that 75%) of my total returns have come from bond funds, primarily junk related. But the key was when I had a smaller account, the returns came from sector funds ala tech/telecom/health in the roaring 90s and to a lesser extent stock index futures before that. I'm at the point now financially where I doubt I will ever again buy individual stocks or even an equity mutual fund. Boring maybe but I don't need any meaningful drawdown in my nest egg at this stage in my life.
  • Your Brain on Stocks
    Hi Guys,
    Perhaps I’m having a senior moment, but Barry Ritholtz has made numerous presentations on his “This is Your Brain on Stocks” theme. Well, he made yet another such presentation a few days ago. My senior moment is that I may have posted this reference earlier.
    Regardless, it is an excellent and often humorous summary of his integration of the probability and behavioral aspects of investing. Here is the Link, perhaps once again:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/05/norcal-fpa-this-is-your-brain-on-stocks/
    Enjoy. Ritholtz has culled his graphics from many sources and has properly credited them. Over the several years that he has been making similar presentations, some of the viewgraphs have changed and several have been reordered, but his recommendations have remained fairly constant.
    Ritholtz has generated a short 3 item math oriented list and a 12 item behavioral oriented list that summarize his position. He doesn’t include those lists in his recent presentation, but he has documented them elsewhere. Here are the Links to both lists without further comment by me:
    http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/06/02/the-trick-to-making-better-predictions
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/this-is-your-brain-on-stocks/
    Sorry if these have been previously posted. Reviews are often helpful.
    Best Regards.
  • GTAA ETF to be dissolved at AdvisorShares, Cambria plans relaunch of strategy as GMOM ETF
    Honestly, think this is good news...
    Letter yesterday:
    Cambria Investment Management, LP and AdvisorShares issued notice today that the two parties plan on separating, and Cambria will move on from sub-advising the Cambria Global Tactical EtF (GTAA) pending board and shareholder approval.
    Cambria, as a fiduciary, is committed to offering the best possible investment portfolios to our investors. Cambria will be launching the successor to GTAA, the Cambria Global Momentum EtF (GMOM), at a management fee of 0.59% in the coming months. GMOM is currently subject to an effective registration statement, and we are finalizing the terms of the listing with the NYSE and the SEC.
    Cambria has been managing global tactical portfolios since 2007, and together with GMOM we will continue to manage these strategies in separate accounts and private funds.
    Cambria has launched three EtFs under our own sponsorship, including the Cambria Shareholder Yield EtF (SYLD), the Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield EtF (FYLD), and the Cambria Global Value EtF (GVAL).
    Here is article on Mebane Faber from last month's commentary: The Existential Pleasures of Engineering Beta.
  • How To Invest In An Aging Bull Market
    Do some research,which takes a little longer now that the 2008-early 2009 debacle falls between published 5 and 10 year past performances,but there is info out there and also on this site. Harvest some gains into a L/S fund you can feel comfy with or a hedged equity fund similar to RGHVX or MARVX. I've been scolded on this site concerning BRUFX and it's performance in the down draft,but the fund continues to set new highs and check out the M* 15 yr ratings and risk.http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/ratings-risk.action?t=BRUFX&region=usa&culture=en-US .It's my largest holding.Takes a little work to invest because the fund is not available in the fund super markets,but the long term record makes a compelling case.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/mutual-fund/screener?FundType=0&FundValue=0&ReturnFundPeriod=11
    Everyone has a favorite fund story for down markets.Maybe this thread will bring some of those "big fish" stories to light.Thanks to rsorden 's post on OTCRX ,never was aware of the fund until I read about it on this site. I opened a position in the fund and also in HHCAX. Will the funds protect me in a 20%-40% bear market? Which funds have?Which funds haven't had "lagging years"?
    Thoughts on Otter Creek Long/Short (OTCRX)
    It's a new fund, but the predecessor LP was successful despite a few lagging years. Looking for something to compliment a heavy equity portfolio, in addition to William Blair Macro Allocation (WMCNX).
    rsorden April 5 in Fund Discussions http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/41143/#Comment_41143
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/longshort-equity/$FOCA$LO.aspx
  • the June commentary is up!
    @David_Snowball
    Your review of DODLX is fine. I am hopeful it will prove to be a good choice for a core global bond fund; unless one is enraptured by the "Hasenstaub method" (which is o.k. if caught at the right price for entry), other global bond funds, post-analysis, just leaving me asking, "why?" (and no answer comes back). Regarding DODLX's aggressiveness, there is one thing I thought you would note but didn't:
    footnote (c)
    "Data as presented excludes the effect of the Fund’s short position in Treasury futures contracts (notional value = 15.4% of the Fund’s net assets). If exposure to Treasury futures contracts had been included, the effective maturity would be 1.3 years lower."
    https://www.dodgeandcox.com/GBF_character.asp
    This seems a rather aggressive position for a global bond fund to take, right out of the chute. Perhaps we need a new subcategory--- unconstrained global bond (loosely-constrained global bond)(flexible global bond)? :)
  • Gross Has Lesson For Gundlach With New ETF
    Sorry; my bad for wrong period terminology/characterization. I bought a lot 4/13 and 5/13 and am underwater ~2% and ~1% on those purchases. Must've been a high back then, sort of. Until the recent runup I was under by quite a bit more than that. All a little surprising to me; quite a bit worse than FSICX, PONDX (my two faves), DODIX, and of course PDI. Even than FTBFX, and about the same as AGG for that span. Big slump end of last year what did it, if you zoom in on the curves. I would not have thought it would do significantly worse than FTBFX.
  • A Character Assassination (closed)
    Flack. I agree with the gist of what you are saying. Just that my idea of market beating returns and especially drawdowns are worlds apart from Charles' moving average studies. Admittedly though, they are better than the buy and hold crowd. (But did Charles account for slippage and commissions in his studies of moving averages) As for Larry Williams, yes, while he is a sleezy vendor to the max, he actually has done about as much innovative research as anyone in the business. Unlike most vendors, he actually trades, and for better or worse has been doing so for more than 50 years.
  • the June commentary is up!
    Yes, there is quite a bit of material on FF divestment & fiduciary duty, and at least some of the ~ 95 institutions that have already pledged to divest per the campaign parameters specifically state that investment committees are to continue to exercise those duties as they determine what, when, and how much to divest over time, and even whether they'll fully divest within the specified 5 year period. That's the way the institution I'm involved with is handling it.
    To pick one angle, the conclusions of Aperio's latest multiple-backtest exercise were that replacing FFs with a combination of utilities and materials mimics index returns, Sharpes, and standard deviations very closely. Any analysis of fiduciary duty should also take into account the possibility that divesting FFs may be a positive for endowment returns longer term.
    I didn't mean to imply that PARWX or any other specific fund is suitable for every investor, and of course institutions and high net-worth individuals have many more options for specialized portfolios.
  • What's The Best Basket For Global Stocks ?
    The author chose Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF for ex-US stocks.
    A better index fund is the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund, which is also found in exchange traded fund format with the symbol VXUS.
    It's very similar to the fund he mentioned above, but has broader exposure to mid and small caps.
    For example, the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF invests in 2,291 stocks.
    The Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund invests in 5,422 stocks. It's got a lot more mid and small caps, and makes a better index fund.
  • Gross Has Lesson For Gundlach With New ETF
    Well, if you went into BOND several months ago you are still be underwater
    1. Kudos for apples/orangutans -:)
    2. I'm not in the fund, but I looked at Morningstar's total return figures.....don't see how an investor would be underwater if they went in "several months ago"
    Please correct me if I am wrong.
    3 month return, as of 6/4/2014: 1.82%
    YTD return, as of 6/4/2014 : 3.56%
    1 year return, as of 6/4/2014 : 2.35%
  • Bloomberg IPO Index Breaks Downtrend; Still Work To Do
    The biggest of all!
    (Reuters) - As Alibaba prepares for what could be the biggest tech company IPO to date, the Chinese e-commerce giant has been counseling employees on how to deal with the roughly $41 billion they could unlock through a New York listing.
    While some staffers have inquired if premium brand BMW (BMWG.DE) sells cars in Alibaba's corporate orange, others may invest windfall stock gains in property in North America or channel funds back into start-up ventures in China, hoping to build future Alibabas, bankers and financial planners say.
    Current and former Alibaba employees hold 26.7 percent of the company, having built up their holdings through stock options and other incentives awarded since 1999, according to securities filings, though these didn't detail the number of employee shareholders.
    The IPO windfall - Alibaba could be worth $152 billion, according to the average from a Reuters survey of 25 analysts - will be larger than anything China has seen because of the depth of the group's employee ownership and the size of the company.
    HOW TO SPEND IT
    As happened after Facebook Inc's (FB.O) IPO in 2012, the new Alibaba millionaires are seen driving up demand for luxury cars and apartments, giving a boost to the economy of China's eastern city of Hangzhou, where the company is based.
    But the Chinese government's austerity campaign is likely to keep a lid on too much ostentatious spending, and because the stock listing will be in the United States most of the money employees receive from eventual stake sales would likely be kept offshore rather than flow back to Alibaba's Chinese base.
    "Check real estate in Vancouver, not so much Ferraris and real estate in China," said a person closely involved with the IPO who was not authorized to speak publicly on the issue.
    Hangzhou is in a part of China already known as a hotbed for entrepreneurship. As of last year, the city had more than 560 multi-millionaires and in a decade is expected to rival Los Angeles in the number of so-called ultra high net worth individuals, according to property consultant Knight Frank.
    Alibaba's biggest single shareholder, with a 34.4 percent stake, is Japanese telecoms firm SoftBank Corp (9984.T), followed by U.S. internet group Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O), with 22.6 percent. Other large shareholders include Silver Lake, DST Global and Singapore state investor Temasek [TEM.UL].
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/05/us-alibaba-group-millionaires-idUSKBN0EF29W20140605?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
    Other China News
    Environmental Initiatives Continue in China
    China’s Middle Class Develops a Greater Taste for Foreign Goods
    UGHHH ?
    China Internet Fosters Free Speech In an open recognition of free speech, China news agency Xinhua has
    cited a government report that China’s internet has become a forum
    for free speech in the country.
    Baidu Expands in Google’s Backyard
    http://kraneshares.com/resources/kraneshares_capitalvue_may27.pdf?utm_source=KraneShares+Weekly+-+General&utm_campaign=83e990e7f5-KraneShares_Weekly_Email10_17_2013&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6d32ba24ce-83e990e7f5-27509461
    Winners and Losers in the U.S.-China Solar-panel War
    June 4, 2014, 1:15 PM ET by Claudia Assis ,Energy Ticker
    The U.S. government’s decision to impose new, steep anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese solar panels roiled solar stocks on Wednesday — and it will have wide-ranging implications for consumers and companies just as cheap and plentiful solar products from China have fueled the boom in rooftop solar-power systems.
    For a start, there’s no denying that solar modules will become more expensive, and in fairly short order. Who will pay for that increase, however, is unclear. The solar-panel makers affected could absorb some of the costs, or move some of their production out of China. Buyers could switch manufacturers, seeking those not affected by the ruling.
    The Solar Energy Industries Association called the tariffs “damaging” for U.S. consumers, and said they will slow the adoption of solar power in the U.S.
    The U.S. imposed duties of up to 36% on Chinese solar products in 2012 after concluding the companies had received unfair subsidies from the Chinese government and sold products in the U.S. market below cost, but the duties didn’t include solar panels made with solar cells assembled in other countries.
    The Commerce Department set up preliminary duties between 18.56% to $35.21% late Tuesday, but don’t let “preliminary” fool you — tariffs will be collected right away.
    China’s Ministry of Commerce said it is “strongly dissatisfied” with Tuesday’s decision. The move “is an abuse of trade remedies, has an obvious hint of trade protectionism and will inevitably lead to the escalation of trade disputes between China and the U.S.,” the ministry said in a statement on its website, according to The Wall Street Journal.
    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2014/06/04/winners-and-losers-in-the-u-s-china-solar-panel-war/?mod=WSJBlog
    Either Sunshine Or Thunderstorms
    For investors, solar stocks seem to whipsaw on any bit of good or bad news. TSL jumped 31% of its earnings beat, only to fall by the wayside over the next few days. Given just how quickly they move from profits to losses, quarter-to-quarter doesn’t necessarily place them firmly in the “investment” camp.
    To that end, the best way to play solar stocks is still the previously mentioned TAN ETF or its rival Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (KWT[12]). Both offer a broad way to play the entire solar spectrum. And given just how varied the earnings and guidance reports have been, that’s probably the best choice for investors at this point. The good should even out the bad.
    The bottom line: Don’t get too excited over the recent gains in solar stock world; there still could be plenty of clouds ahead. A variety of factors will continue to pull the sector in both directions.
    http://investorplace.com/2014/06/solar-stocks-fslr-tsl-tan/print
  • A Character Assassination (closed)
    Seems there is a cman financial that does post on facebook ...
    Check it out ... as I have linked it below.
    https://www.facebook.com/pages/Cman-Investments/156859291015222
    Now, I womder if his compliance department, if there is one, told him he had to quit posting on MFO?
    Old_Skeet
  • The Truth Behind The Q1 Earnings Numbers
    We're not the only ones wondering!(Disagreeing?)
    "Four years after enactment of what is widely viewed as President Barack Obama’s key legislative achievement, however, it’s unclear whether the health care law is still on track to reduce the deficit or whether it may actually end up adding to the federal debt. In fact, the answer to that question has become something of a mystery....
    In its latest report on the law, the Congressional Budget Office said it is no longer possible to assess the overall fiscal impact of the law. That conclusion came as a surprise to some fiscal experts in Washington and is drawing concern. And without a clear picture of the law’s overall financing, it could make it politically easier to continue delaying pieces of it, including revenue raisers, because any resulting cost increases might be hidden."
    Fiscal Diagnosis Only Gets Tougher for Health Care Law
    By Paul M. Krawzak
    June 4, 2014, 12:01 p.m.
    http://www.rollcall.com/news/-233551-1.html?pg=1&dczone=policy
  • the June commentary is up!
    David,
    As always thank you for all you do. I'm not sure if you take requests, and I'm not sure if the 350 divestment campaign has stretched to your campus and student body, but it has to my alma mater and any wisdom or insight you might be able to share regarding ESG or SRI issues in investing and related funds would be very appreciated. Hopefully, even relevant close to home as well.
    Cheers,
    JLev