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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • A Conservative portfolio design
    I noticed nobody has proposed for consideration a portfolio solely made up of ETFs...kind of surprising as there are many model portfolio's like that floating out there..."The Lazy Portfolio", the three ETF portfolio, etc...
    Also find it interesting that some are looking at past results as a comparison...last 15 years relatively low inflation until recently...also tremendous fiscal and monetary stimulus. Who knows that the future holds...some of you might remember a few years ago when I mentioned high grade rubies, you can fit a million dollar of them in your sock and no one would know..also interesting that no one has mentioned bitcoin...are we just a bunch of older dudes fighting the last war or are we going to open our minds and skate to where the puck is headed not where it is and has been?
    Looking forward for this exercise, I am considering "continuity of fund managers", what are their ages and what is the bench strength and financial soundness of the fund company? Maybe need some international exposure as what if dollar weakens substantially?
    What other inputs are folks pondering that maybe haven't been discussed yet?
  • A Conservative portfolio design
    A lot of people are showing fascination with these "newfangled" trading funds. Not only newfangled but new - PHEFX is barely a year old. So how much one can understand about a relatively complex fund beyond the fact that it started hot out of the gate?
    (See the original thread on this fund.)
    That said, I ran Portfolio Visualizer efficient frontier analyses. Because a couple of funds were extremely new, I had to make substitutions. In lieu of PHEFX I used IPSAX; also near the top of 1 year performance for options trading funds. And FWIW over such a short period, it correlates 99%. For HELO I substituted JHQEX.
    I also threw in the four funds Vanguard uses for its model 60/40 portfolio: VTI, VXUS, BND, BNDX. Not surprisingly, at the high volatility end of the efficient frontier curve one finds pure VTI. (Throw in VFIAX and that will be the selected fund; it's been hard to beat S&P 500 if one doesn't care about volatility.)
    PV efficient frontier analysis
    At different levels of volatility, a portfolio with a single fund, PVCMX (lower volatility), JHEQX (medium volatility), or PRPFX (high volatility) comes pretty close to the efficient frontier. At 7% standard deviation, the highest return (over life of the funds analyzed) is 44% PVCMX, 46% JHEQX, 6% VTSMX, and 4% PRPFX.
    Throw in the fund I mentioned in the original thread, HSFAX, and that replaces most of PVCMX.
    Portfolio Visualizer second efficient frontier analysis
  • A Conservative portfolio design
    Excellent topic @JD_co
    As you realize, PRPFX wasn’t a recommendation. But I was struck by how close that +6.98% was to your hypothetical 7% goal. Like you, I prefer to diversify well beyond a single fund - no matter how good it is. The biggest problem, I think, is that shorter term (5-10 years) anything can happen, and so trying to extrapolate future return armed only with a decade’s historical performance is tough and might not lead to your desired result.
    As a very conservative investor, I use 3 funds only for trying to gage daily volatility and yearly return. They are not benchmarks. They are not goals. They are simply markers for what I think a conservative investor might reasonably expect to earn over time with very limited volatility. I do not own any of these.
    AOK - Globally diversified. 30% equity / 70% fixed income. Relies on index funds. Low ER
    TRRIX - A fund of funds from T. Rowe Price. 40% equity / 60% fixed income. Moderate ER
    ABRZX - An “alternative” style investment from Invesco. Stocks, bonds, commodities (including precious metals). Attempts to hedge market risk using derivatives. ER exceeds 1%
    Over the past 15 years the 3 have averaged +5.40% annually. TRRIX led the pack with a slightly better 6.07% return over that period. Sound bad? For some perspective I compared that number to T. Rowe’s short-term bond fund PRWBX. It has returned +1.86% annually over the same period.
    *** I should have checked VWINX, arguably the gold standard, for conservative funds. True to form VWINX has topped all three of my afore mentioned tracking funds with a +7.06 15 year average return. However, not that much better thanPRPFX’s +6.98% return over the same period. Personally, I’d pick PRPFX over VWINX, being willing to sacrifice the 0.08% advantage enjoyed by VWINX for better inflation protection.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/21/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/21/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (51.6%, high) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (23.7%, below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (24.7%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +27.9% (high). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (130+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (45+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth up, cyclicals flat), bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 67.88% (positive). Fed's Jackson Hole Conf Aug 22-24 w/Powell speaking at 10am Eastern on Fri. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1618/thread
  • A Conservative portfolio design
    Fun. I'll bite.
    35-40% bonds. (DODIX and WCPNX, 50/50)
    PRCFX (GIROUX) 30-35%
    VLAAX 25% or so.
  • A Conservative portfolio design
    Would you settle for only 6.98%? That’s the annualized return of PRPFX over 15 years according to M*. If I were going to own just one fund, that would be my choice. Over that 15 year period the fund’s worst year was 2008 when it lost -8.36%. Its best year was 2003 when it gained +20.45%. (These numbers came from Yahoo Finance.)
  • A Conservative portfolio design
    VELIX 20%
    TSUMX 20%
    PRCFX 25%
    BIL 35%
    Maybe?
  • A Conservative portfolio design
    Shooting for 7% returns over time, but with very low volatility (SD). I am considering the following allocation:
    PHEFX 15%
    FMSDX 15%
    CBLDX 15%
    SWHFX 10%
    PVCMX 10%
    HMEZX 10%
    HELO 10%
    PRPFX 5%
    LCORX 5%
    RSIVX 5%
    Can you do better? Please share your ideas.
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    Talking about 2000-2002 bear market and GFC, from Jan 2000 through December 2011, S&P 500 returned nearly 0. Which blend funds fared significantly better during that 12 year period?
  • Franklin Resources (BEN) falls 12.5% Wednesday on SEC Probe of Western Asset Management CEO
    Franklin Resources can’t seem to get out of their own way. They’ve acquired a lot of other firms during the past 5 decades. My early 403-B in the ‘70s was with Templeton Funds which was later merged into Franklin. Sir John Templeton, who founded Templeton Funds and was a class act himself, would not be cheered by this news.
    Story
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    @hank, I would hesitate to call any duration bond fund as a "hedge." It is a volatility damper or ballast, but IMHO only cash or T-bills or a skilled execution of a puts/shorts/options strategy constitutes a true "hedge".
    It’s probably age showing. We old folks have a tendency to live in the past. However, in 2008 I was happy to hold Price’s GNMA fund (PRGMX). It rose +5.62% that year while the S&P tumbled about - 38%. PRGMX also posted returns in the vicinity of 6% in the year before (2007) and the year after (2009). I don’t have the fund’s duration at the time, it’s typically about a 5-7 years. Even better was Price’s Long-Term Treasury Bond Index (PRULX) which rose +23% in 2008. Tell me longer dated high quality bonds aren’t a good equity hedge.
    If you’re wondering how cash performed back then, 2008 began with the FOMC overnight lending rate at 3.5% and ended with the rate at 2.0%.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    In the IRA: Added to positions in THOPX, WSHNX, and MNHAX. Sold positions in VRIG, VNLA, and GSY. Bought new positions in USTB and TBUX. I'll consolidate the short-term funds as things become clearer to me over the coming months. I am considering LMBS to go with stake in XONE.
    Currently sitting at 56% equity split 44% domestic and 12% foreign. I'll leave it at that until I can unload some marginal funds, like USAGX. I missed the early August blowup. I don't feel the need to add to equities just to achieve 60/40.
    In the taxable: Nothing shaking but the leaves on the trees.
  • Fidelity Latin America Fund is being merged into another fund
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/744822/000113322824007862/flafa-efp9504_497.htm
    97 1 flafa-efp9504_497.htm FIDELITY LATIN AMERICA FUND AMCIZ - 497
    Supplement to the
    Fidelity® Latin America Fund
    Class A, Class M, Class C, Class I, and Class Z
    December 30, 2023
    Prospectus

    Effective after the close of business on or about September 6, 2024, new positions in the fund may no longer be opened. Existing shareholders may continue to hold their shares and purchase additional shares through the reinvestment of dividend and capital gain distributions until the fund’s Reorganization takes place on or about September 13, 2024.
    Proposed Reorganization. The Board of Trustees of Fidelity Investment Trust has unanimously approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (“Agreement”) between Fidelity® Latin America Fund and Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund pursuant to which Fidelity® Latin America Fund would be reorganized on a tax-free basis with and into Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund.
    As a result of the proposed Reorganization, shareholders of each class of Fidelity® Latin America Fund would receive shares of the corresponding class of Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund.
    The Agreement provides for the transfer of all of the assets of Fidelity® Latin America Fund in exchange for corresponding shares of Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund equal in value to the net assets of Fidelity® Latin America Fund and the assumption by Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund of all of the liabilities of Fidelity® Latin America Fund. After the exchange, Fidelity® Latin America Fund will distribute the Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund shares to its shareholders pro rata, in liquidation of Fidelity® Latin America Fund. As a result, shareholders of Fidelity® Latin America Fund will become shareholders of Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund (these transactions are collectively referred to as the “Reorganization”).
    A Special Meeting (the “Meeting”) of the Shareholders of Fidelity® Latin America Fund is expected to be held during the third quarter of 2024 and approval of the Agreement will be voted on at that time. A combined proxy statement and prospectus containing more information with respect to the Reorganization will be provided to shareholders of record of Fidelity® Latin America Fund in advance of the meeting.
    If the Agreement is approved at the Meeting and certain conditions required by the Agreement are satisfied, the Reorganization is expected to take place on or about September 13, 2024. If shareholder approval of the Agreement is delayed due to failure to meet a quorum or otherwise (an “Adjournment”), the Reorganization will become effective, if approved, as soon as practicable thereafter.
    In connection with seeking shareholder approval of the Agreement, effective the close of business on March 22, 2024, new positions in Fidelity® Latin America Fund (the fund) may no longer be opened. Shareholders of the fund on that date may continue to add to their fund positions existing on that date. Investors who did not own shares of the fund on March 22, 2024, generally will not be allowed to buy shares of the fund except that new fund positions may be opened: 1) by participants in most group employer retirement plans (and their successor plans) if a qualifying fund is already established as an investment option under the plans (or under another plan sponsored by the same employer), 2) by participants in a 401(a) plan covered by a master record keeping services agreement between Fidelity and a national federation of employers that included a qualifying fund as a core investment option, 3) for accounts managed on a discretionary basis by certain registered investment advisers that have discretionary assets of at least $500 million invested in mutual funds and already included the fund in their discretionary account program, 4) by a mutual fund or a qualified tuition program for which Fidelity serves as investment manager, 5) by a portfolio manager of the fund, 6) by a fee deferral plan offered to trustees of certain Fidelity® funds, if the fund is an investment option under the plan, and 7) by qualified intermediaries to facilitate in-kind redemption activity when deemed by the Adviser to be in the best interests of the fund, and 8) by certain asset pools associated with an organization that already offers a qualifying fund as an investment option in its retirement plan(s). These restrictions generally will apply to investments made directly with Fidelity and investments made through intermediaries. Investors may be required to demonstrate eligibility to buy shares of the fund before an investment is accepted.
    If shareholder approval of the Agreement cannot be achieved, the Board of Trustees has approved a plan of liquidation for Fidelity® Latin America Fund. Prior to such liquidation the fund’s assets will be managed to provide for sufficient liquidity to meet redemptions prior to liquidation. In this event, effective after the close of business on July 16, 2024 (or such later date as may be required in connection with an Adjournment), the fund will no longer permit new positions in the fund to be opened. Existing shareholders will be permitted to continue to hold their shares and purchase additional shares through the reinvestment of dividend and capital gain distributions until the fund’s liquidation on or about September 13, 2024 or as soon as practicable thereafter in the event of an Adjournment.
    The foregoing is not a solicitation of any proxy. For a free copy of the Proxy Statement describing the Reorganization (and containing important information about fees, expenses and risk considerations) and a Prospectus for Fidelity® Emerging Markets Fund please call 1-877-208-0098. The prospectus/proxy statement will also be available for free on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s web site (www.sec.gov).
    Effective March 1, 2024, the fund’s management contract was amended to incorporate administrative services previously covered under separate services agreements. The amended contract incorporates a management fee rate that may vary by class. The Adviser or an affiliate pays certain expenses of managing and operating the fund out of each class’s management fee...
  • Ransomware attack on Patelco Credit Union
    Everyone these days should lock their credit records at (at least) the Big 5 companies, set alerts for big (or suspicious) purchases if they can, and check their statements/registers for oddities.
    As much as I hate having too many accounts open, it's good to have multiple credit cards and bank accounts just in case one of them gets hit by something bad.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    $21.415 at the close... down 3.71%. Maybe his national polling is down 3.71% also... (one can hope).
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Gold keeps rising....the typical gold bar (~400 troy ounces x $2,500 spot price) is now worth $1M.
    Of course, I keep my bullion stacked in a little fortress formation in the middle of my concrete panic room. ...just kidding
    With USAGX I was able to turn a 5% position in the IRA into a 1.24% position since August 2011. Now that I'm approaching green, I'm wondering if I should hold on just a little bit longer or chuck that durn thang.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Might be tracking his poll numbers …
    Interesting price $21.65 / Paid $23 for a few shares of Flower Foods (FLO) this morning. Somewhat more appetizing.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Gold keeps rising....the typical gold bar (~400 troy ounces x $2,500 spot price) is now worth $1M.
    Of course, I keep my bullion stacked in a little fortress formation in the middle of my concrete panic room. ...just kidding
    I think it will get nutty. Too old & conservative to join in the celebration. A couple of my funds have some limited exposure. Prefer to play it that way: PRPFX, GAA / Also own some investment grade Morgans. All that garbage tends to rise together.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Gold keeps rising....the typical gold bar (~400 troy ounces x $2,500 spot price) is now worth $1M.
    Of course, I keep my bullion stacked in a little fortress formation in the middle of my concrete panic room. ...just kidding
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    I'm sure 'Truth'Social CEO Devin MOOOOOnes** will be out with another letter begging Congress to outlaw short sellers of his stock and/or suing anyone who closes their long DJT position before his boss can dump his shares next month.
    ** https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/article261975090.html