Looking at the Plumb performance chart, looks like he is always overweight metals. Nice gains into 2011. Terrible performance since 2012.
I've always thought risk parity made sense in tactical allocation between stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. Plumb's portfolio risk is weighted heavily towards commodities.

Wake me up when inflation starts heating up.
Until then, the S&P at less than 20x forward earnings working on a third straight quarter of 3%+ GDP is not a recipe for a "crash."
Now, the market will NOT post another 13 straight months of gains. There will be ups and downs. The naysayers like Mauldin will pronounce every "down" as "the one."

oh, he is close to permabear (note 'buy gold / silver' at the bottom of his own site)
this may have been posted already but I did not see it, an extraordinary summary of risks real and imagined:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-overwhelming-evidence-that-the-us-stock-market-is-heading-for-disaster-2017-12-05

Just read about munis in Sat's Barron's- not sure if this provides any insight:
"One certain impact of tax reform will be a huge week for municipal-bond sales, with over $17 billion on tap, according to the Bond Buyer, as states and localities rush to issue bonds that would be curbed under the proposed legislation. With the probability of cheaper prices and higher yields, which are needed to clear the market, maybe you should consider stuffing munis in your family’s holiday stockings."

I receive updates to the "model portfolio" which relies heavily on Gold and Silver to color its performance returns. It December allocation is as follows:

The Author attempt to out perform 95% of all mutual funds over a 10 year period...not always successfully I might add.
plumbreport.com/?page_id=51

Our CC info was stolen somehow long ago, so I set up an alert on all our CC so i get an email every time they are used for transactions greater than $0.01... Some days i get two or three emails a day. Big deal. 99% of the time I recognize them Maybe once a year I do a little digging, but it is very little work and worth the peace of mind.
I would not waste my time calling the merchants or the card company with more information.. They don't care. I have a card I use about once every six months whose info was stolen and misused... right after I used it for the first time in months at a liquor store. It seemed obvious the information was stolen by a store employee and a little investigation would have caught them. Visa couldn't care less. The store denied everything

Hi @bee,
Thanks for posting your findings on IOFIX. Indeed, I found the review of the material to be interesting. Don't know how Junkster finds these kind of funds ... but, I am sure glad he makes "some" of his better findings know on the MFO board.
I'm looking to read what he has to say (on his picks and thoughts) come January.
In addition, I just came form viewing the earnings outlook on the S&P 500 Index for 2018 on several sites I use for reference. Seems forward estimates are looking towards $155.00 full year on down towards the $135.00 range. Let's see ... $135.00 X 20 = 2700 ... $155.00 X 20 = 3100 ... and, a blended number of $145.00 X 20 = 2900.
Your guess is a good as mine ... but, the blended number bubbles pretty good.

Maybe it is a good time to sell. Any of you remember how much the market loved the turmoil Nixon brought on? I wish I had an in-house lawyer who would say he was the one speaking when I had put my foot in my mouth. More will be revealed, but it won't be good for the market.

All I remember about RMN’s impact on markets is that he is/was the only Pres. during my lifetime to impose unilaterally an immediate temporary freeze on wages and prices. (Hope I’ve described the 1971 executive order accurately.) I was 20-something at the time and enroute to my first good paying post-college job when the news broke over the radio.
Sell decisions are fraught with peril as several here and at FA have noted over the years. For longer term investors there’s the dilemma of when to get back into the market. It’s a coin-toss at best that they’ll manage to re-enter at lower prices than they sold. Even for older investors with shorter time horizons there’s the risk of forgoing substantial future gains should the markets run hot for several more years. Than there’s the sector issue. An overvalued S&P or high yield market doesn’t necessarily mean that deep value, financials or industrial metals are overvalued. Sometimes the opposite is the case as hot sectors tend to pull money away from more tepid markets. Hope I’ve made clear that despite my misgivings about the current market euphoria, I could never recommend to someone else that they sell.
What I haven’t heard mentioned lately is the Presidential election cycle. But that’s a whole different topic.

lots else going on then, though
http://jasonzweig.com/learning-from-the-bear-market-of-1973-1974/
not only the awful malaise and conflict

"Obviously now we owed late charges ..."
Most Discover cards have late/missed payment forgiveness - they don't charge a late fee for your first late payment. So whether you're charged a penalty may not not as obvious as it might seem. Perhaps Discover is suggesting you wait to see if there is a late fee assessed before asking to reverse the charge?

your first missed minimum payment won’t incur a $27 late fee, subsequent missed minimum payments will.

https://www.discover.com/credit-cards/resources/credit-card-grace-period
"Please vote who the !@#$%^&* is : Lyft or Discover. There is no 3rd option here"
Equifax? https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/blog/2017/09/equifax-data-breach-what-do

I cruise through the Fidelity family funds to look at the various funds and their actions. At the Thanksgiving period I noticed that most of the funds that were associated with "value" were having positive days when growth funds were either neutral or down. I continued to watch and perhaps the hot money wants to move to the down trodden market area; at least relative to growth for this year.
You do not need to login to view this Fidelity list. Click upon the the NAV% column to sort for return percentage for the day.
Another day of significant change between growth and value types.
http://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/fidelity-funds-daily-pricing-yields?refpr=MFRes_016
Value and Growth do rotate.....a short view in this chart.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?JKF,JKE&p=5&O=011000
Chart for etf's listed in below link. The visual short term changes between value and growth of all capsizes, which started a more dramatic move around Nov. 25.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?JKF,JKE,JKI,JKH,JKL,JKK&p=0&O=011000
Lipper over view of categories/styles:
http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-lipperindx.html?mod=topnav_2_3023
Lastly, the daily return for these two today:
---JKF = +1.1%
---JKE = -1.2%
The past week for these two:
--- JKF =+4%
--- JKE = -1.2%
JKF has a YTD return of: +13%
JKE has a YTD return of: +28.9%
Well, anyway; perhaps something to think about viewing your favorite growth and value investments comparison.
Most assuredly would appreciate comments.
Take care,
Catch

So first, my wife's CC bill arrives in the month 1 month late, around the time the next bill normally arrives. We always wait for bill to arrive and then pay immediately. Obviously now we owed late charges, which is probably why I looked at the bill a little closely. So what do I see?
For 2 months someone has been taking rides on LYFT on my wife's CC. Neither of us has account with LYFT, which is a good thing because that's another reason I spotted transactions quickly. There were several of them. My wife didn't see any other transactions she did not recognize. Needless to say we called and had a new card sent.
My question is HTF does this happen? The Lyft App asks for CC#, expiry date, security code, mailing address. 1) HTF does someone have all of this? 2) Assuming someone didn't have it WTF is LYFT doing allowing the charges?
Either Lyft does not care about protecting consumers and/or there is an insider problem at Discover since someone at a shady hotel at which my wife's DID NOT eat might have somehow got hold of all information but not address!
Please vote who the !@#$%^&* is : Lyft or Discover. There is no 3rd option here. Maybe both. Especially since there is no reason for bill to arrive 1 month late in my mailbox. Almost as if someone "held" it back so we couldn't see all those charges.
PS - We were told to wait till new card arrives before asking whether late fees will be refunded. They wouldn't even say at the point we called they would be. If late fees are not returned - nothing to do with fraudulent transactions, they should mail bill on time - we will be canceling the card because Discover will then be the WFC of CCs for us.

FYI: The municipal bond market is seeing a flood of fresh issuance ahead of tax legislation that could limit the ability for certain issuers to attach tax-exempt status to sizable swaths of the market.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/municipal-bonds-see-deluge-of-supply-as-republican-tax-plan-fears-build-2017-12-04/print

I guess the author of this WSJ article didn't have much time before his deadline -- it's brief and doesn't say much.
I think Morningstar had more information recently, comparing donor-advised funds from different investment firms. Their focus was more on how these funds perform as investments over time.
I've used the Fidelity Charitable Trust for about ten years and never considered this as a place to grow money. My time horizon is generally fairly short. I'll move some mutual fund shares or shares of stock into FCT and place the funds in the money market fund there, then direct the "grants" to charities fairly quickly.
There are several advantages. As the article says, I get the credit for the charitable contribution in the year I make the deposit, even if the individual grants are not delivered until the next year. Fidelity allows small grants; I've given $100 to a local homeless shelter (which met Fidelity's guidelines), whereas some other donor-advised funds have much a larger minimum.
Fidelity sends cash; some charitable organizations might have a hard time handling shares of stock, or especially shares of mutual funds.
Donating this way gives you a tax deduction for the entire amount of your contribution, no matter what your basis. I've donated some small spinoffs just because I didn't want to figure out the basis. I gradually donated one entire mutual fund position over a period of years, after accumulating it over a very long period of years (with reinvested dividends and monthly contributions); I did not want to try to establish my cost basis.
Of course, there is a small fee assessed annually.
It's usually best to donate appreciated assets and a donor-advised fund makes it simple to do this. It's all online and your past giving history is readily available.
David

I found this presentation interesting of IOFIX (IOFAX).
Website:
alphacentricfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/IOFAX-Presentation-January-2017-Retail.pdf

Potential Impact of Cash Repatriation on EPS of Stocks (S&P 500 and Tech) :
fundamentalis.com/?p=7403
A look at 4th Quarter Earnings Estimates and Interesting Cash Repatriation Spreadsheet:
fundamentalis.com/?p=7397
Close-up of Spreadsheet:
fundamentalis.com/wp-content/uploads/cashrepat113017.png

Mondays are always a good day to read this blog (linked below).
This Monday discusses (among other things) the Impact that The Tax Overhaul will have a financial sectors:

Link to the entire Blog:
dashofinsight.com/

A good perspective on the S&P 500 can be found here:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/12/01/s-p-500-snapshot-up-1-53-from-last-week

FYI: As stocks continue to march mostly higher, many investors are asking the same question: Isn’t this a good time to sell stocks and put more of my portfolio into cash?
Regards,
Ted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-to-consider-before-you-dash-into-cash-1512357360

FYI: These funds allow investors to set aside money for a future charitable gift, but get the tax deduction immediately.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-are-donor-advised-funds-1512356401