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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • GMO: five new ETFs in the pipeline
    Following your questions here, I reached out to Steve Schaefer who represents GMO. He just shared this note:
    Yes! They just filed last week for 5 new ETFs:
    GMO International Quality (Ticker Symbol: QLTI)
    GMO International Value (Ticker Symbol: GMOI)
    GMO U.S. Value (Ticker Symbol: GMOV)
    GMO Beyond China (Ticker Symbol: BCHI)
    GMO Systematic Investment Grade Credit (Ticker Symbol: INVG)
    Filing is here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1981627/000110465924089465/tm2421561d1_485apos.htm
    Can also provide the statement below if it’s of use:
    GMO has always been committed to offering innovative investment solutions in the implementation structures that best address the needs of our clients. Expanding our ETF suite is a continued evolution of that commitment, driven by demand from intermediary and wealth management investors. We are excited to be making our strategies available to a growing group of investors, many of whom have not been able to access GMO previously.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts

    Watch a movie like
    Network. It's clunky to watch these days, but yeah, people were "mad as hell" about a lot of things, including inflation.
    Growing up through that era is the main reason I'm not convinced we're out of the woods yet.
    Thanks. That makes sense. The tricks our minds play! 40-50 years is too soon for a different reaction to similar events.
  • Dave Giroux Explains TCAF's Portfolio Construction
    Rforno, I believe the software companies that will win the AI race are not household names yet. As viewed from a % gain perspective over the next 15 years.
    Agreed. But I'll bet most of 'em will get snapped up by the tech companies that *are* household names ... I always keep my ears pinned for interesting AI opportunities, but don't plan on doing a deep-dive to try and find them.
  • Dave Giroux Explains TCAF's Portfolio Construction
    Rforno, I believe the software companies that will win the AI race are not household names yet. As viewed from a % gain perspective over the next 15 years.
  • New Morningstar Site in Late-August
    I’ve been a regular M* user for 25 years, although I’ve never paid for it. I mainly use it now to track various funds and portfolios. However, portfolio view no longer works for me. M* converted all of my portfolios into watchlists. No big deal, except it defaults to the “wrong “ watchlist every time I open the app now. The watchlist I primarily follow tracks a group of ETFs that approximates my primary investment portfolio. It is a simple way to track my investments at any given time. M* has essentially ruined that simple utility for me, so I am using their app less and less.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    DJT up 53% in pre-market trade.
    $22.24 down 40.50% over the past month.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    - For income, stability, safety the short to intermediate part of the curve (1-5 years) is easier to ride. Much less volatile. Not a lot of difference now in rates.
    -There may be reasons to go further out if you believe rates will be lower than. Plain vanilla bonds might work better however, than a fund.
    - I sometimes use longer term bond funds as a volatility hedge - but only the highest quality ones. Depends on a lot of factors like how volatile your portfolio is, what current interest rates are, how much growth you are willing to exchange for the reduction in volatility.
    - I am surprised by the extent WEA has served to dampen equity volatility on down days. Might just be freakish exception. Have only owned it a couple months.
    - I have my eyes on JMBS - mortgage backed bonds. High quality. Actively managed. Reasonable fees. It does tend to rally on big equity down days. But the flip side that it can fall quite a bit on solid equity days - much more than a short term bond fund typically does. Expected growth is low unless we enter another 2008 during which only the highest credit quality bonds held up.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    reduced rates: gummint can spend less buying back its behemoth debt, right? A dollar that's TOO strong vs. other currencies would be a problem. But we are a world away from THAT right now. Universal tariffs on imports is a yucky idea. Ever-expanding gummint spending gets us nowhere in reducing the debt-beast. Facilitating and streamlining LEGAL immigration, and therefore expanding the pool of labor, would be a great thing. Need more Immigration and Customs workers. Is that stuff being farmed out to the private sector, like TSA?
    Hank's got it. And msf offers that intermediate term bond funds are as far out on the curve as seems prudent to him.
    PRSNX. 4.46 years (global, USD hedged.)
    WCPNX 5.6 years
    DODIX 6.22 years. Stretching things, eh?
    DLFNX. 5.95 years
    I own none of them--- yet. I'm thinking that when rates go down, my junky stuff will throw a party in the streets. Eh?
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    @mikem there are so many reasons to invest in a fund. Market returns and volatility are just one. Insight into the active manager and actions surely supersedes anything quantitative and analytical.
    Having said that if we are to believe that 95% of large cap active managers can’t beat the equity indices in the USA long term, it opens the question: well what else is true which is similar.
    These are starting points to look into a funds past, not a way to look into their future.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    This constructing of a look-a-like mix of investments to match an existing fund seems ludicrous to me. Isn't that what an over-all portfolio is supposed to be? It is obvious there are different ways to get the same results. A little of A added to a bit of B and you get the same result as C. Good luck managing that long term. Buying the S&P 500 and adding treasuries in an overall portfolio, how does that compare to holding a fund like LCORX which has a special place and purpose in a portfolio. I'm just not seeing the benefit.
    What I am looking for are funds that end up with a better CAGR than the beta clone. The last time I ran DIVO through the grinder it beat the clone.
    Leuthold's ETF may beat the clone simply due to lower costs. I'm no math whiz, but I do wonder if the cost of LCORX explains the difference in performance.
  • JPMorgan Hedged Equity
    ”Negatives: below 4360 the fund is not protected as it is short the 4360 puts. You would be long 100% Large cap equities if the market was to head down 50%. (however unlikely a scenario it is in such a short time frame, it is a tail risk) …
    Thanks @Devo
    I sometimes compare investment risk to the ice that covers local lakes in winter - some a mile or more across. Generally speaking, a half-inch of “good” ice will support a 150+ lb human (quality can vary). And were I to traverse the lake 100 times on a half-inch of ice, chances are I’d make it across safely every time. (Who? Me worry?) However, if something unexpected occurs (maybe the ice has been weakened by numerous freeze - thaw cycles) and I fall through into 200 feet of cold water, I might decide crossing on a half-inch of ice, however small the risk, just isn’t a risk I care to take.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    This constructing of a look-a-like mix of investments to match an existing fund seems ludicrous to me. Isn't that what an over-all portfolio is supposed to be? It is obvious there are different ways to get the same results. A little of A added to a bit of B and you get the same result as C. Good luck managing that long term. Buying the S&P 500 and adding treasuries in an overall portfolio, how does that compare to holding a fund like LCORX which has a special place and purpose in a portfolio. I'm just not seeing the benefit.
  • Submitting CFPB complaints
    I filed an SEC complaint a couple of years ago when I sold a mutual fund at one NAV stated by Schwab and then days later the fund company lowered the price I recieved
    The paperwork was not much. I won and got about $500 back
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    Seems like a good time to build a replicating portfolio for LCORX. Devo describes the process at this dinky linky.
    Portfolio Visualizer gives us ten free years of data, and over that period of time LCORX shows a beta of .49. So we're going to test LCORX against a portfolio that is 51% cash and 49% SPY--I think that's the right breakdown.
    And here are the results: YADL (yet another dinky linky.)
    To get the betas to match over time I had to adjust the breakdown to 50/50/ And here is the result for that.
  • Dave Giroux Explains TCAF's Portfolio Construction
    It is interesting he makes such a big deal out of GLP-1 but apparently has only a small % in Lilly and no NOVO. While detailed portfolio stats are not available except for 12/31 the most recent Quarterly fact sheet shows a persistent 17% in healthcare. In December it was similar but only LT 2% Lilly
    Over weight technology, it will be interesting to see how he is going to be les risky than the market. The portfolio ( other than the utilities) seems similar to a lot of "High Quality" growth funds
    It fell just as much as SP500 early this month
  • JPMorgan Hedged Equity
    @Observant, I am glad you read the 2 Options articles I wrote. In addition, I am curious if you took @wabac lead and replicated the portfolios. You might want to do that for not just JHQAX but also JHQDX and JHQTX which are the 2 of the 3 funds of the same ilk run by JPAM.
    Here's some numbers to consider. Assume all of the below to be Approximately true:
    As of July 31, 2024, portfolio on their website,
    https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-hedged-equity-fund-a-46637k315#/portfolio
    JHQAX held about $19.7 Billion in Large Cap stocks.
    They use some active management to decide on which of the stocks to hold and what to avoid. I dont know what active management they do and if it is any good for stocks.
    On that date, the SPX was at 5522.
    JHQAX was long $20Bn of the SPX 5170 Put, short $20Bn of the SPX 4360 Put and Short $20 Bn of the SPX 5750 Calls. This structure is called a Put spread collar.
    This structure expires on Sep 30th 2024.
    Somewhere around the expiry, (I know there are fixed rules but I am going with the big picture), this collar is retired and new 3 month collar is initiated.
    Thus every 3 months, $20bn * 3, or $60Bn of options are traded, or about $240bn a year for a portfolio of about $20bn in stocks. That, as you might suspect, has transaction costs in terms of bid-offer paid to market makers of options, clearing fees paid to exchanges, etc.
    Now, if you look at the Beta of JHQAX to SPY, its around 44%
    And if you create the replication basket of 44% spy and 56% tbills, you will notice the portfolio is basically a replica of JHQAX (give or take).
    So, my question back, is why pay the 85 bp in fees per year, and then have the fund go through hundreds of billions of dollars of options transactions, when all can be accomplished with a low weight SPX portfolio.
    Positives of JHQAX: it IS long the 5170 put and were the market to drop 20%, you would feel good about holding the fund,
    Negatives: below 4360 the fund is not protected as it is short the 4360 puts. You would be long 100% Large cap equities if the market was to head down 50%. (however unlikely a scenario it is in such a short time frame, it is a tail risk). Also above 5750 on the SPX, you would lose all exposure to equities.
    At the end of the day, remember these JPM funds have a cool 80-90BN$ in AUM. That should tell you that large portions of the market believe these products make sense. (even if I suggest otherwise).
    I hope the above is enough for now. No perfect answers. I always find it is better to play and invest a small amount. Live with it and breathe it. If you dont like what you own you will have better reasons to avoid it in the future.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    @Balu
    The sordid details are in Reddit link below. There are several Reddit threads covering the issue. Gist is that Fidelity uses non standard definitions for commonly accepted terms on a wire form such as "FFC". I got docked twice for $40 and have given up on dealing with wiring money from Fidelity to Schwab. I just do a ACH pull now from Schwab. Wires from Fidelity to direct bank account work fine. Things get messed up when FFC is needed.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/Schwab/comments/1dw5nl9/how_to_do_a_wire_transfer_from_fidelity_to_schwab/
  • Dave Giroux Explains TCAF's Portfolio Construction
    TCAF talks about utilities most of the time (7% sector exposure....3x the benchmark) but still holds 5 times as much technology as of June. Important viewpoint on eventual AI beneficiary being software. 100% agree. Skate to where the puck is going.
    I will still play utilities more than software companies for the AI theme. After all, software needs power for the computer to run it. :)
    Besides the OEFs I own hold major software companies, so I'll defer to them for exposure.
  • Dave Giroux Explains TCAF's Portfolio Construction
    new medication will improve lives and reduce junk food consumption.

    What a strange world we live in that we have to buy expensive drugs to save us from consuming
    stuff that should rarely go into our shopping carts.
    I remember when 'Wheat Belly' was published 15 or so years ago and how the grain/junk food industry was playing dirty pool trying to discredit the author (a cardiologist) and plant seeds of doubt. Seeing how the industry was being so proactive in their nonsense, I presumed the book was probably on to something. But the book was eye-opening .... I went low-bad-carb for a year, lost a TON of weight, and haven't looked back. Since then i've learned the food industry will do ANYTHING to keep its customers hooked, and the pharma industry will do ANYTHING to address symptoms but not 'cure' the underlying causes ... both in the name of $$$$$$, of course.
    By contrast, a longtime friend is on a GLP-1. They were never a chronic junk or processed food addict, worked out regularly, and generally had a healthy lifestyle yet struggled with weight and major appetite issues for decades. She started on GLP-1s last year and (last I heard) is down 25# and says they're feeling/looking like a new person in ways "not since college." I think GLP-1s are game changers, plus I'm seeing studies about how they're showing promise for other conditions, too.....and if GLP-1s can help metabolic issues, that can have a follow-on benefit for patients who don't need as many drugs for conditons, new medical devices, replacement knees/hips, etc. So in that regard I think Giroux is spot-on in this assessment. But it's great for patients, but bad for some companies.