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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    Thanks again everyone for your thoughts and opinions!!
    DH, I have to agree with Hank; I'm not sure why you believe I and others should known that the 10-year was going to rise from 1.78 to 2.24 in just a handful of days, now. I'm not surprised rates are moving up; just the recent velocity.
    Junkster, Thanks for the articles (I could not get to the Barron's article though). The Lord Abbett article seems to make the case for "diversifying" your portfolio with BL. As they also offer "attractive income" in a variety of interest rate environments and attractive risk-adjusted returns. Agreed, I do not think they are a "panacea" for higher rates, just another alternative.
    In fact, the article appears to endorse, "this may be the time to invest" in BL. Did I misinterpret the conclusion?
    JoJo26, thank you for your advice and thoughts. In general, I agree with you 100%; I'm not making wholesale changes or moving every bond holding to BL, just diversifying a bit because I'm beginning to believe the guru's that claim the decade's-long bull market may be coming to an end, albeit, hopefully slowly. We may just be "normalizing", whatever that means.
    Please keep the discussion going! Matt
  • Rising rates and what to do!

    I was caught off-guard a little bit by the accelerated rise in the 10-year.
    That should not have happened
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/29877/the-scariest-chart-for-bond-yields#latest
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    Here's a link to a topic I discussed earlier this morning about the sudden love affair with floating rate funds being a panacea for rising rates
    http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2016/11/16/why-floating-rate-loans-may-not-rise-in-price-when-rates-do/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_ii
  • TEST: etf ticker symbol versus std. 5 letter fund ticker, lost highlight and thus linkablility
    Here is a screen capture of your first entry which shows IEF neither blue nor underlined. PIMIX is blue, underlined and I can select it for research.
    image
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    Keep waiting for PTIAX to post 3rd Q commentary .Maybe they're going the way of less monthly and/or quarterly comment?Here's snippets from just released Annual Report dated August 31,2016
    The past year saw very big
    changes for both the Fund and for fixed-income markets. Fund assets grew more than four times going from $164.37
    million to $688.60 million during the year. Managing that growth and maintaining desired allocations occupied most of the
    management team’s time and attention
    As this is being written, we still believe the tax-exempt market is attractive, but that can change quickly, and good
    opportunities can be difficult to find even when we like the market. Thus, it is difficult to say whether allocations to tax exempts
    will increase or decrease.
    Our current allocation to commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) (8.40%) was put in place after bringing on a
    Commercial Real Estate Credit specialist with fifteen years of experience.
    As a total return bond fund, we seek to position ourselves in the most undervalued fixed-income securities we can find
    consistent with the need for proper diversification and liquidity. To identify such opportunities, we find scenario analysis
    (over roughly a three-year investment horizon) to be more valuable than rate or market forecasting
    http://ptiafunds.com/documents/ptam-annual-report.pdf
  • TEST: etf ticker symbol versus std. 5 letter fund ticker, lost highlight and thus linkablility
    Hi @chip
    The below, with missing highlight for etf's, started/changed around Nov. 10. At least with this laptop.
    Anyone else find the same status?
    Thank you and Regards,
    Catch
    IEF
    PIMIX
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    It's a bit distressing to see all the sudden enthusiasm here, there, and everywhere with floating rate/bank loan funds. The last thing I want to see is that category becoming "groupthink" and the "logical" place to go. In the real world we have seen this category actually decline since November 1 albeit just a tad. Yet at the same time we have seen a huge spike in Treasury rates. Two reasons for this. One is with floating rate the key metric is the 3 month LIBOR rate not the longer term Treasuries. And secondly, since floating rates carry what I would call junk "lite" credits they have been held back a bit with the decline in the junk bond market the past two weeks.
    Below is a link, although a few months old, of one of the better articles I have seen on the floating rate/bank loan sector. Note how the 3 month LIBOR rate historically moves lockstep with the Fed funds rate.
    https://www.lordabbett.com/en/perspectives/marketview/floating-rate-no-need-to-wait-libor-day.html
  • Bill Gross's Investment Outlook For November: Populism Takes A Wrong Turn
    FYI: - Doubling DownThe Trumpian Fox has entered the Populist Henhouse, not so much by stealth but as a result of Middle America's misinterpretation of what will make America great again. Not having voted for either establishment party's candidate, I write in amazed, almost amused bewilderment at what American voters have done to themselves. A Reuters/Ipsos Election Day Survey of 10,000 voters revealed the extraordinary fury of the American populist movement.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.janus.com/insights/bill-gross-investment-outlook
    "Investment Outlook" Translated Into English:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-guru-bill-gross-says-trump-voters-will-suffer-most-from-election-result-2016-11-16/print
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    mcmarasco says: "I was caught off-guard a little bit by the accelerated rise in the 10-year."
    You're not the only one. Suspect T. Rowe got caught a bit flat-footed. I own several of their conservative funds which have dramatically underperformed relative to my funds at Dodge & Cox and Oakmark the past week. Suspect T. Rowe was positioned for something different than what occurred. Three of their lower-risk funds (which I own) have underperformed noticeably since Nov. 8: PRWCX, RPGAX and TRRIX.
    Some of this relates to bond holdings. (RPGAX in particular is global). More generally, I suspect T. Rowe has been expecting slower growth and constrained government spending and was so positioned in these funds. By comparison, Dodge & Cox (DODBX) is heavily weighted towards financials which have benefitted from the prospect of higher rates and inflation (and likely repeal of Dodd-Frank). And - just a guess - OAKBX probably benefitted from its long-time toe in the water exposure to drillers and energy. Also - they shed most long-term government bonds 2-3 years ago and have remained largely short-duration.
    Sorry: No advice here. But folks have served-up some good ideas. Concur with you that the reaction is probably overdone - but that long-term the trend in rates is higher. FWIW: I'd be very surprised if Yellen is still Fed Chair a year from now. Anything's possible. (Maybe Rudi - if he doesn't take the Secretary of State job? ... :))
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    GREAT information, points and thoughts everyone, THANK YOU!
    I was caught off-guard a little bit by the accelerated rise in the 10-year. I agree that it is probably a bit of an over-reaction, BUT, the trend is still probably up, albeit not in a straight line.
    What happens if the FED does move in Dec. How much of this rate move is baked-in anticipating the Dec. rate hike?
    That is one reason why I am contemplating moving some of my monies into a BL fund.
    Any further thoughts, ideas, suggestions are very welcome; please continue the conversation!
    FYI, I too hold MAPIX and a little DEM, which I am holding on to, but NOT adding to at this point. Any comments or thoughts?
    Thank you, Matt
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    I may have read this from another poster here at MFO...seemed worth re-posting for this thread:
    https://wellscap.com/pdf/emp/20161031.pdf
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    Here's an article that shed some light on the changing dynamics that face the US, UK and the EU including the possibility of interest rates rising here in the US:
    trumps-fiscal-policy-may-have-lessons-for-britain/
    The full article may require free subscription, but the comment link is worth a free look.
  • Rising rates and what to do!
    One question is always how fast rates will rise. For example, GIBLX, with an SEC yield around 4% and a modified average duration of 4+ years might be expected to return a tad south of 2% if rates rose 1/2% in the next year (lose 2% on price, gain 4% on interest). Not great, but not a disaster.
    Bank loan funds have their own risks. Often the loans they invest in have floor rates of 1%, and are keyed to 3 month LIBOR. That's currently at 0.88%. Until it rises above 1%, the interest rates on these loans won't rise (since they are already above LIBOR). So these don't float - yet (it's close). So they still have a bit of interest rate risk.
    http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Is-it-Time-to-Consider-Bank-Loan-Funds (August report)
    They also have credit risk. The debt they own has low credit ratings (around B). Consequently the debt behaves more like stocks and is sensitive to the economy. If rising rates depress stocks, these funds may start experiencing defaults. The good news is that since they hold senior loans, they would likely recover more of their principal than would typical junk bond funds. Still, there's a real risk of default and getting less than 100 cents on the dollar.
    I'm inclined to think that the market has overreacted, but things are so volatile that in the short term anything could happen. It might make sense to move some money into one of these bank loan funds, but I wouldn't bet the farm on them.
  • Grandeur Peak - I called it!
    Here is a link to an interview with Laura Geritz and what she purposes to do:
    http://www.prweb.com/releases/2016/11/prweb13834644.htm
  • A Tale Of Two Investors
    Hi Guys,
    There are many "tale of two investors". Ted has referenced one of them. Ted, it's a superior post. I loved it.
    I find yet another tale of two investors more educational. Here is the Link to it:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-solin/a-tale-of-two-investors_b_5206530.html
    I am much more like Mary in the story; I suspect many MFOers are like Paul. That's what makes for a marketplace.
    Here is yet another Link to yet another tale of two investors:
    http://fortune.com/contentfrom/2015/5/13/tale-of-two-investors/ntv_a/T7wBAJ7oCAfxgFA/
    This reference features a rather strong advocacy for supplemental Monte Carlo analyses to backstop the investment decision. So do I. Monte Carlo techniques were developed during WW II while searching for the atomic bomb secrets. Monte Carlo helped at that time and can help once again. It was developed to explore likelihoods under uncertainties. That defines the marketplace, so Monte Carlo is a natural winner here.
    If nothing else, I am constant in my postings.
    Best Regards.
  • Fidelity’s $100 Billion Manager Says Rate Spike May Be Overdone
    Thanks Ted,
    From the article:
    O’Neil said that he likes Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, leveraged loans and corporate credit, both high yield and investment grade.
    Fidelity Total Bond gained 6.1 percent this year, better than 88 percent of peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Over five years the fund topped 78 percent of rivals.
  • Fidelity’s $100 Billion Manager Says Rate Spike May Be Overdone
    FYI: Ford O’Neil, who oversees about $100 billion in bonds for Fidelity Investments, says the sharp run-up in yields since the election of Donald Trump may not be justified.
    O’Neil said he’s skeptical about the assumptions that a Trump agenda of increased government spending and tax cuts will be fully enacted and lead to faster growth, higher inflation and bigger budget deficits.
    “It is all based on speculation,” he said in an interview Friday in Fidelity’s Boston offices. “The market has glommed on to the good news about growth, but not how challenging it would be to enact such a program or negatives like restrictions on trade.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-14/fidelity-s-100-billion-manager-says-rate-spike-may-be-overdone
  • Era Of Low Interest Rates Hammers Millions Of Pensions Around World
    @Ted. Thank you for the link.
    My biggest take away from some of the words related to some of the pension funds is that; let us (pension fund managers) blame the sad state of affairs of gains since the market melt 9 years ago on low yields. The pension funds are going to run out of money and/or be forced to reduce future benefits or BOTH. Hell yes, they are and will. Guess that underfunding doesn't help much either, eh?
    From the article:
    Government-bond yields have risen since Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, though few investors expect a prolonged climb. Regardless, the ultralow bond yields of recent years have already hindered the most straightforward way for retirement funds to recover—through investment gains.
    >>> So, no investment gains from price appreciation that many bond types have had over the past nine years??? Ya, right! If these managers have not made money from bonds in past years, they need to find new work. Losses in other investment areas have likely offset bond price gains.
    From the article:
    Pension officials and government leaders are left with vexing choices. As investors, they have to stash away more than they did before or pile into riskier bets in hedge funds, private equity or commodities. Countries, states and cities must decide whether to reduce benefits for existing workers, cut back public services or raise taxes to pay for the bulging obligations.
    >>>Prior discussions and links here at MFO have indicated performance problems with many large pension funds. Perhaps that should have invested in something like VWINX and/or a simple 50/50 equity/bond mix with 4 holdings.
    Educated, smart folks; who are not the sharpest tools in the investment world shed! Perhaps hire a few more hedge fund managers.......oh, wait; these managers are being fired by numerous funds!
    10 year annualized returns sampler on the simple side of investment life:
    --- IEF = 5.5%
    --- TLT = 6.7%
    --- LQD = 5.5%
    --- TIP = 4.1% (even the lowly regarded TIP is far above this percentage using simple moving averages for buys and sells)
    --- VTI = 7.1%
    --- SPY = 6.8%
    --- IWM = 6.7%
    --- QQQ = 11.4%
    --- VWINX = 6.7%
    Pick any 4 of the above and one still finds an average of about 6.2% annualized over 10 years. Yes, I know; not much diworsifiers in the above choices. Build your own pension fund and post here, eh?
    Problems with the future of many pension funds and survival are real. Problems with this also result from the skill set of much of the management(s).
    Other than these, all is well with the world.
    ...etf ticker highlight test IEF QQQ
    Take care,
    Catch
  • A Tale Of Two Investors
    FYI: Next week I will have the distinct pleasure of joining a distinguished cadre of financial advisors, institutional investors, asset managers, journalists and fellow bloggers in New York City for the inaugural Evidence Based Investing Conference. It’s rare to come across a conference where you are just as excited about the attendee list as you are the speakers, but the folks organizing this event have done just that. For the uninitiated, the conference website provides a (working) definition of the phrase:
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://bpsandpieces.com/2016/11/08/a-tale-of-two-investors/