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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • ‘Absolute tsunami’ of ETFs to hit market
    Passive voice in CNBC piece: "are expected". Who is expecting, and why?
    The current SEC rules and regulations require funds to seek "exemptive relief" from the SEC. Generally all share classes of a fund must be treated equally. That's not true of ETF shares. Hence the need for relief.
    ETF shareholders cannot purchase and redeem shares at NAV (they must trade at market price in a secondary market). There are other inequities as well. When funds seek exemptive relief, they include plans for how they will deal with various differences between the share classes.
    https://www.chapman.com/media/publication/15122_IL-0224-Coyle-Pershkow-Warren.pdf
    (For those interested in fund mechanics, this is an interesting nine page (plus notes) piece that doesn't get bogged down in legalize. The first few pages are of more general interest, describing the differences between ETF class shares and OEF class shares.)
    Another example is brokerage fees. OEF shareholders pay these fees (though they're not included in the ER calculation). They purchase shares for cash which a fund then uses to buy securities, thus incurring brokerage fees. In contrast, authorized participants buy ETF shares with creation baskets of securities already purchased. No brokerage fees involved. There are various ways a fund can deal with this disparity. A request for exemptive relief has to spell this out.
    The former acting SEC chairman, Mark Uyeda, "directed staff to prioritize the review of more than fifty applications for relief that had been unprocessed for as long as two years."
    https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2em6tlqjoggjytyhjgjy8/corner-office/etfs-may-become-just-another-share-class-if-sec-approves-dimensionals-latest-regulatory-ask (April 1)
    Maybe that's what's supposed to open the floodgates. But Uyeda was appointed back in January. So why the CNBC piece now, and not in January, or a month ago (related to the Uyeda quote above)?
    The only thing I see that has happened since then is that Paul Atkins was sworn in as SEC chairman on April 21. He is not expected to change much from what Uyeda was doing. "Chairman Atkins thus has arrived at an already changed agency."
    https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/sec-enforcement-20-chairman-atkins-has-arrived
    A concern with actively managed ETFs (already discussed in an older thread) is that pragmatically they cannot close to new investment when capacity is reached. So this is something to monitor when purchasing an actively managed ETF. Soon OEF fund investors will also need to monitor capacity if their funds begin to offer ETF class shares.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?

    FXE (Euro) +10.27% YTD (vs Dollar)
    FXF (Swiss Franc) +10.47% YTD (vs Dollar)
    Depends on how much, if any, your fund hedges back to the Dollar. But to varying degrees the outperformance this year in European funds is reflective of a weakening Dollar globally. I’m not expecting a reversal of that trend soon, but might be wrong.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    I don't see The Economist article either. I did a search on all Economist pieces since March 1 containing the word "Europe" (there are 267). The vast majority are under 1,000 words. Several are between 1,000 and 2,000 words in length (typically around 1,200). Only a 8 (3%) are over 2,000 words. Most of those are not on point, the two relevant ones aren't as bleak as you describe:
    • If it comes to a stand-off, Europe has leverage over America, March 13, 2,688 words.
      Almost all the steps it [Europe] could take would be self-harming, even if they inflicted even greater damage on America. For that reason among others, getting European leaders, a fissiparous bunch at the best of times, to agree on a concerted response to American bullying would be a feat. But if they resolved to fight back, they have plenty of ways to do so.
    • As Donald Trump's trade war heats up, China is surprisingly confident, April 3, 2,632 words.
    • Your guide to the new anti-immigration argument, March 13, 2,545 words
    • Emigration from Africa will change the world, April 24, 2,522 words
    • Would Vladimir Putin attack NATO?, May 8, 2,520 words
    • Can the world's free-traders withstand Trump's attack?, April 2, 2,496 words
      Much may hinge on what Europe does next. The EU and its open-market allies could form a formidable bloc—co-ordinating responses to American tariffs and pulling China in a more free-trading direction.
    • Aid cannot make poor countries rich, March 6, 2,159 words
    • Will Jamie Dimon build the first trillion-dollar bank?, May 22, 2,184 words.
    Whether it remains true that "when America sneezes the world catches a cold" (cf. Klemens von Metternich referring to France and Europe) remains to be seen.
    Still I agree that European stocks may not prove to be the safe refuge people are looking for, having asked: The question remains: ... will they [foreign equities] continue to have positive returns?
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    I don't want to throw cold water on the European stock picture, but I have to tell you that a couple of weeks ago there was a lengthy and detailed report in The Economist which was very negative on the general business future of Europe vs the U.S.
    Perhaps the current enthusiasm about EU stocks is actually just the retail herd chasing each other (as usual) rather than any actual long term merit based on actual growth potential. The Economist viewed Britain and Germany as particularly challenged for a variety of reasons, and of course Portugal, Spain and Italy are pretty much just so-so at best.
    I fully appreciate the developing problems here in the US, but hopefully we should look beyond the current administration for the longer term picture.
    Anyway, keep your eyes open and be very careful out there. As @hank said in another current thread:
    Maybe: “The trend is not your friend.”

    Add: I just tried to review back issues of The Economist and I have to tell you that I can't find anything like what I described above. Very frustrating... I know very well that I read that report in full, because I found it to be interesting. If if wasn't The Economist, I have no idea where I might have seen that.

    Add to the Add- OK, I finally found the report- it was in the Wall Street Journal-
    here's a free link-
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    European stocks have done really well this year.
    VGK (Europe) returned 17.9% while EZU (Eurozone) returned 22.1%.
    Stock markets in Poland, Austria, Greece, and Spain generated returns greater than 32%.
    Returns are as of 5/13/2025.
    https://bilello.blog/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/country-etfs-5-14.png
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    PRPFX has worked well this year thanks to a 20% gold allocation. It's +9.65% YTD.
    QMNNX - AQR Market Neutral fund has held up very nicely. Up +13.89% YTD.
    Now, if only their recent performance was some kind of indicator ("guarantee") of future performance......
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    The main concern with doing simple (straight line) extrapolations is that they assume nothing will change.”
    Yes. Could have worded my comment better. And nothing ”run of the mill” about the pretty good funds I listed.
    ”projecting out what that rate of return would produce through an entire year.”
    Maybe instead -”representing an annual rate-of-return of roughly … “ ?
    I circumvented @LarryB ‘s question which was more along the lines of “What may do well?” rather than ”What has already done well?” Like most here, I don’t make predictions. My four core holdings (15.5% each) are: global infrastructure, real assets, limited-term preferreds and a long-short equity fund. While that may indicate where I’m leaning, it in no way assures where markets will go.
    Investment choices should relate to situation and time-horizon … Andrew Marvell might well have been speaking of investing: ”Had we but world enough and time, This coyness, lady, were no crime.”
    :)
  • Barron’s May 26 Cover Story - “Sports Betting - A Race Against Time”
    Outstanding socially responsible article from a leading financial publication. Couldn’t agree more with their conclusions and deep concerns. It occurs to me, however, that the same addictive personalities probably gamble in other ways like day-trading stocks or taking on excessive debt. Delinquencies on auto loans increasing.
    A few excerpts:
    ”Addiction experts say a public-health time bomb is ticking.”
    - After four years of back and forth, Kentucky in 2023 passed a bill to legalize sports betting beyond thoroughbred racing. To win over a group of holdouts in the state Senate, lawmakers added a problem gambling assistance account to the legislation. It earmarked 2.5% of the state's new gambling tax revenue to fund workforce training, treatment, and research. The remainder goes to the state's pension fund for public employees.
    - DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM were among the gambling firms that advocated for the bill. In total, the industry spent $443,000 lobbying the Kentucky legislature in 2023, state records show. DraftKings was enthusiastic about the bill's passage. In August 2023, the company boosted its revenue outlook for the year, calling out $20 million in new revenue expected from Kentucky in the final three months of the year. Soon after, DraftKings told investors it had signed up more than 5% of Kentucky's adult population within five weeks of going live in the state.

    - The betting trend has played out much the same way across the U.S. Americans now wager roughly $150 billion a year on sports, and 48% of American men under 50 have an account on a digital sportsbook at sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, ESPNBet, and BetMGM, according to a Siena College survey.
    - The challenge for policymakers trying to regulate gambling is its almost magical benefits to state coffers.
    Gambling is "a very effective way to get more state budget without having to raise taxes," says Heather Wardle, a professor of gambling research and policy at the University of Glasgow. Once gambling revenue is supporting pension funds, infrastructure, and other state priorities, Wardle says, "it's very hard to then roll back from that."

    - An 11-year study ending in 2016 & found that one in five people with a gambling disorder had attempted suicide. The National Council on Problem Gambling estimates 1% of American adults, or 2.5 million people, meet the criteria. The federal government, which collected roughly $370 million in federal excise tax on sports gambling last year, has no programs in place for that group. The U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, by contrast, has an annual budget of $7 billion.
    - "When you think of the Derby, you think of beautiful hats, stately horses, mint juleps, pageantry, pomp and circumstance, and the fun that's involved," Clark says. "You don't think of somebody out back getting ready to shoot themselves because they bet $10,000 on a horse and they're not going to be able to make their house payment."

    Personal note: As a long time DraftKings customer my sports bets are limited to less than $1 on average per day and only while actively viewing a game. (Minimum wager is 50-cents.) I am appalled that the site relentlessly and flagrantly “pushes” those who log in to play games of chance like ”Roulette” & ”Black Jack” and to deposit additional sums (usually via debit card). Lord help those who take the bait. Certainly, the article has summoned up reservations about my continued participation on moral grounds.
    * Excerpts in italics from: ”America’s Sports Betting Boom Is About to Backfire” - by Nick Devor (Print Ed.) Barron’s - dated May 26, 2025
    image
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    Thanks all for sharing your thoughts. My current risk assets are limited to TRIGX,, CGDV and DODLX. All actively managed and not low cost by any standards. It’s not business as usual for me,,,
    M* classifies DODLX as a global bond fund (not hedged). It has an ER of 0.45%.
    M* shows 10 ETFs in this category. Half (5) have ERs of 0.5% or more. M* lists 147 share classes of OEFs in this category. DODLX has the 6th lowest ER. (The fifth cheapest is DOXLX.) By this metric at least, DODLX looks cheap. Not as cheap as one would hope a bond fund would be, but still low cost for a global bond fund.
    Lipper rates it a 4 out of 5 on expense.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    The main concern with doing simple (straight line) extrapolations is that they assume nothing will change. Businesses will ignore increasing uncertainty in the world, both economic and geopolitical. The markets will keep chugging along.
    We've already seen that past is not necessarily prologue. This year (YTD), the FTSE Europe Developed Market All Cap Index (VGK) has outperformed the S&P 1500 (ITOT), 20% to -1% (M* charts). But over the past 10 years (through 2024) the US has outperformed foreign markets, both cumulative and on a calendar year basis (except for 2017 and 2022). See Portfolio Visualizer.
    Likewise, value (VTV) leading growth (VUG) by 2% this year is a reversal from the previous 10 years (again with 2022 being an exception).
    DODWX and DODFX are fine funds in their categories. Disregarding their somewhat superior performance relative to peers YTD (36th percentile and 47th percentile respectively per M*), their solid YTD returns are due largely to their categories (value and 50% or 100% foreign) having done well.
    The question remains: even if foreign equities (and value) continue to outperform domestic (and growth) equities, will they continue to have positive returns?
    I'm not one to make macro calls. I'm usually strongly inclined to follow the adage: don't just do something, stand there :-). But even I am looking at the writing on the wall and starting to consider how I would reconstruct my portfolio from scratch if I went substantially to cash now. Fortunately I'm in a position to do that and take the hit (opportunity cost) if I'm wrong and markets go up.
    Regarding the "run of the mill" funds:
    PRWCX is having one of its poorest performances relative to peers, all the way "down" to the 22nd percentile. Typically growth leaning, it has moved solidly into blend (37% of portfolio is LCBl) suggesting that Giroux also sees the markets moving toward value. (It is also open to investors who have at least $250K total invested at TRP.)
    DODBX is having a banner year (4th percentile) relative to peers. Some due to good management & low cost, some due to being very value-oriented. (Allocation funds are not partitioned into value, blend, growth subcategories). Its category average YTD is just 0.73% (M*).
    FKIQX likewise may be doing well this year due to its very value leanings. Same category as DODBX.
    TRRIX benefits from having over 1/4 of its equity holdings in foreign securities. It is a global moderately conservative allocation fund. Its return is in the middle of its category (47th percentile YTD). Some category peers that have done better YTD, like VGWIX and FAFWX, have value leaning portfolios as contrasted with TRRIX's blend holdings. Again these illustrate the growth-value reversal this year.
    I'll leave the remaining two funds to others.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    Hasn’t been as bad a year as the headlines and talking heads on Bloomberg, etc. might lead one to believe. I posted elsewhere that both DODWX and DODFX are up double digit year to date. So is GLFOX which invests in infrastructure, mostly in Europe. The real assets category which usually includes commodities, energy, AG, real estate is also having a respectable year.
    But how about less risky “run-of-the-mill” balanced / tactical allocation funds? I ran a few calculations factoring in the return YTD (M*) which represents 144 days thru Friday and projecting out what that rate of return would produce through an entire year. (No guarantees of course).
    The first one, PRWCX, isn’t open to new investors, but is always interesting to watch.
    PRWCX YTD: +1.91% .. Projected a full year = +4.85%
    LCORX YTD: +2.84% … Projected a full year = +7.19%
    DODBX YTD: +4.82% … Projected a full year = +12.25%
    FKIQX YTD: +1.88% ..… Projected a full year = +4.78%
    TRRIX YTD +2.55% .. .… Projected a full year = +6.46%
    AOK YTD +2.45% …..… Projected a full year = +6.20%
  • WealthTrack Show
    May 24th Episode:
    Bridgeway Small-Cap Value Fund’s John Montgomery has delivered positive, benchmark-beating returns over the fund’s twenty-plus-year existence with his quantitative, contrarian approach. He shares his investment philosophy, methods, and current strategy.


    Unfortunately Bridgeway has not performed for investors and many have walked.
    $2.9B AUM in 2018 has fallen to $1.71B AUM today.
  • Covered-Call Funds
    "Investors can’t get enough of covered-call funds, which offer a way to stay invested in stocks
    without enduring all of the market’s gut-wrenching ups and downs.
    Recent events show that the funds largely deliver on that promise—though it comes at a heavy price
    in terms of missed returns."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/these-funds-offer-low-volatility-and-10-yields-there-s-a-trade-off/ar-AA1F6xo9
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    23 May, 2025.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-05-23/bloomberg-real-yield-5-23-2025-video
    Vonnie Quinn. Priya Misra (JPM) and Gennadiy Goldberg (TD.)
    Sec. Treas. Bessent's recent remarks are unsurprisingly upbeat, almost sanguine.
    Discussion about rates, duration. Will The treasury cut back on 30-year offerings?
    Misra is skeptical that we can manage to grow enough to offset the huge debt, despite new income from tariffs. There's still too much uncertainty, "until we see just what are the rules of the road... or law."
    'But while the yen is strengthening, U.S. yields are rising. We think this shows that the number of foreign buyers of US gummint debt is declining.' (Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos.)
    EU: 2025 debt issuance = over 1T euros, quickest time ever to get to 1T. May, '25 volume= highest on record.
    USA: I.G. issuance for the week led by Siemens, Citi, MCkesson, SNAM, Groupe BPCE.
    Junk? Biggest month of the year, so far.
    Short week, next week.
  • Victory Pioneer Global Value Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2042316/000168386325004827/f42160d1.htm
    497 1 f42160d1.htm FUND LIQUIDATION SUPPLEMENTS
    May 23, 2025
    Victory Pioneer Global Value Fund
    Supplement to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus
    and Statement of Additional Information
    each dated March 31, 2025
    The Trustees of the fund have authorized the liquidation of the fund. It is anticipated that the fund will be liquidated on or about July 25, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). The fund will discontinue accepting requests from new accounts to purchase shares or process exchanges into the fund effective at the close of business on May 23, 2025. The fund will discontinue accepting requests from existing accounts to purchase shares or process exchanges into the fund effective at the close of business on July 18, 2025. Shares purchased through any dividend reinvestment and certain automatic investments will continue to be processed up to the Liquidation Date. The fund also may accept additional investments from established employer-sponsored retirement plans up to the Liquidation Date.
    Prior to the fund’s liquidation, all or a substantial portion of the fund’s assets may be invested in cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. When invested in such instruments in anticipation of the liquidation, the fund may not be able to achieve its investment objectives.
    Shareholders can redeem their shares of the fund at any time prior to liquidation.
    Shareholders may also exchange their fund shares for shares of the same class of any other Victory Pioneer fund that offers that class, subject to any restrictions set forth under “Buying, Exchanging, and Selling Shares” in the Prospectus. Any shares of the fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be redeemed automatically as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date. The proceeds of any such redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after the fund has paid or provided for all of its charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. Any liquidating distribution due to the fund’s shareholders will be distributed by the mailing of a check to each such person at such person’s address of record.
    The liquidation of the fund may result in income tax liabilities for the fund’s shareholders. The automatic redemption of the fund’s shares on the Liquidation Date will generally be treated as any other redemption of shares, i.e., as a sale that may result in a gain or loss for federal income tax purposes.
    If you hold fund shares through an individual retirement account, you can arrange to have such shares exchanged for shares of another Victory Pioneer fund prior to the Liquidation Date. Alternatively, if you receive a check representing your investment in the fund, it will be treated as a distribution from your individual retirement account. You may be eligible to roll over your distribution, within 60 days after you receive it, into another individual retirement account. However, rollovers are subject to certain limitations, including as to frequency. You should consult with your tax adviser concerning the tax implications of a distribution for you, your eligibility to roll over a distribution, and the procedures applicable to such rollovers.
  • Weitz Core Plus Bond and Weitz Multisector Bond ETFs in registration
    The SEC filing may be a work in progress. While WCPNX's prospectus explicitly permits investments in unrated securities ("The Fund may invest up to 25% of its total assets in debt securities which are unrated or which are non-investment grade") the ETF's prospectus omits this ("The Core Plus Fund may invest up to 25% of its total assets in debt securities that are rated non-investment grade."_
    And the ETF's SAI (which covers both the Multisector fund and the Core Plus fund) isn't clear whether investing in unrated securities is limited to the Multisector fund. Further it has verbiage about redemptions impacting sales of junk- and un-rated securities, which seems to be lifted from an OEF's SAI.
    ETF's SAI:

    Non-Investment Grade Securities
    ...
    Price changes for debt securities held by a Fund will not cause changes to the Fund’s cash income from those securities, but will be reflected in the net asset value of Multisector Fund shares. Therefore, the judgment of the Adviser may at times play a greater role in valuing lower-rated or unrated securities. It also may be more difficult during times of adverse market conditions to sell lower-rated or unrated securities, whether to meet redemption requests or to respond to changes in the market.
    OEF's SAI:

    Preferred Stock and Debt Securities
    ...
    Price changes for debt securities held by a Fund will not cause changes to the Fund’s cash income from those securities, but will be reflected in the net asset value of the Fund’s shares. Therefore, the judgment of Weitz Inc. may at times play a greater role in valuing lower-rated or unrated securities. It also may be more difficult during times of adverse market conditions to sell lower-rated or unrated securities, whether to meet redemption requests or to respond to changes in the market.
    As to ETFs being more volatile, this relates to a post I made in another thread: looking at prices too frequently makes a fund appear more volatile. In many cases that's likely most of what you're seeing. That is, if one looks at the close-of-market prices of ETFs they are likely (nearly) as stable as those of OEFs.
    All else being equal, I prefer OEFs for the absence of spread, the absence of SEC fees (de minimis), and the absence of premium/discount risk. But assuming the ETF version of Core Plus "exactly" tracks WCPNX, it is hard to argue against buying something that's 20 basis points cheaper. (To get the cheaper WCPBX, one must be able to pony up $1M.)
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (05/23/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:56 Topics
    01:36 Goodbye Triple-A
    06:42 The One, Big, Ugly Deficit
    21:02 A Bond Market Revolt
    29:08 The World Strikes Back
    45:53 Rising Supply, Lower Home Prices
    51:53 The Long Peace
    Video
    Blog
  • Tariffs
    OHHHH
    This is probably why Tariff Toddler is demanding a 50% tariff coming on all EU goods starting 1 Jun.... Greenland just did a mineral deal with the EU!
    https://www.newsweek.com/greenland-trump-permit-extraction-2075673
  • The Proposed Budget
    Here is where the $17 Billion cut from the NIH and the $5 Billion cut from National Science Foundation is going
    "The measure roughly doubles the current annual budgets of Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in what Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the American Immigration Council notes is “the single biggest increase in funding to immigration enforcement in the history of the United States.” It increases ICE’s detention budget from $3.4 billion a year to $45 billion through September 2029, a staggering 365% increase on an annual basis that would permit ICE to detain at least 100,000 people at a time.
    It increases ICE’s budget for transportation and removal operations by 500%, from the current $721 million to $14.4 billion. It also calls for $46.5 billion for construction of barriers at the border, including completing 701 miles of wall, 900 miles of river barriers, and 629 miles of secondary barriers, and replacement of 141 miles of vehicle and pedestrian barriers.” It calls for $45 billion for adult and family detention, enough to detain at least 100,000 people at a time."
    Anyone care to compare the future value of dollars spent on scientific research vs ICE ?