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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • thinking about correlations within my non-retirement portfolio
    Re #1 - Agree with @Sven (LCORX). Process of elimination. The 3 remaining choices would not appear very well correlated based on holdings.
    Re #2 - TMSRX is liable to go anywhere. Presently net short equities by 10%. So it is not presently correlated with FPA Crescent - or much else. But PVCMX does not appear correlated either with only 14% in equity and most of the remainder split between cash and bonds. Small cap performance tends to diverge from large cap. PVCMX’s emphasis on value further promotes the divergence. M* is not displaying bond quality, but I’ll guess it’s very high.
    To answer the question, I’d say PVCMX is less correlated with FPFRX over longer stretches.
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF (QLTY)
    @MikeW posted a Barron article on QLTY earlier this year.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/176644/#Comment_176644
    Good interview in Barrons with Tom Hancock of QLTY. David has highlighted this fund recently. He is not a fan of NVDA or TSLA due to valuation concerns but does hold positions in the other Mag 7. Interesting that he has been able to keep pace with SPY since launch even without NVDA. The OEF version of this fund has outperformed SPY over the long term.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/investing-jeremy-grantham-quality-etf-nvidia-tesla-stock-1377e79f
    Some key excerpts:
    “So what else do Hancock and his team at GMO like? Hancock does believe in AI. He just thinks that there are better, more affordable ways to play the trend, such as Microsoft, which has an investment in Sam Altman’s ChatGPT creator, OpenAI; the cloud software company Salesforce.com; and Accenture, the consulting firm. The GMO U.S. Quality ETF  also owns Oracle and the chip-equipment manufacturers KLA and Lam Research”
    It isn’t all about tech. Hancock said consumer staples and healthcare are also top areas of focus.
    Quality value is about more than cyclicals,” Hancock said. “The differentiation for us is that we hold both growth and value stocks. It’s good for diversification.” To that end, the ETF also has big positions in more defensively oriented stocks, such as Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson, and GE Aerospace.
  • thinking about correlations within my non-retirement portfolio
    Ok, I give it a shot.
    Question 1. Leuthold Core Equity. LCORX/LCR does not seem to track passive 60/40 funds. Technology is the largest sector the fund invested in, but is hedged with a short position on QQQ. Having over a 10% in cash shows the defensive posture. Leuthold should have low correlation to that of FPA Cresent.
    Question 2. Palm Valley Capital. The firm is ran by two experienced managers. Investing in smaller caps takes guts when the market is dominated by large cal tech stocks. I never fully understood TMSRX’s strategy. Owned TMSRX briefly when it was introduced.
  • Barrons thoughts on upcoming Fed actions
    I found this piece from Barrons interesting and thought I'd share. Inflation is dropping and the anticipation of rate cuts is influencing investments. Also sheds light on the expected SS increase for 2025.
    CPI Figures Tee Up September Move for Central Bank
    Cooler than expected inflation in July prompted traders to lower the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a half point in September. But Wednesday’s inflation news did clear the runway for the Fed to begin cutting rates, and the size of the September move could depend on labor market data yet to come.
    Traders are pricing in a 37% probability that the Fed lowers rates by a half-point after its meeting next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The probability was greater than 50% just a day earlier and even higher one week ago. The tool sees a 63% chance of a quarter-point cut.
    The Fed might not stop there. Traders expect additional cuts at the two other meetings this year, putting a 44% probability on the Fed cutting rates by a whole percentage point by the end of the year. That implies two additional quarter-point cuts if the September cut is a half-point.
    July’s consumer price index rose 2.9% from a year ago, slower than the 3% gain expected. Core inflation not counting food and fuel rose 3.2%. The cost of housing accounted for 90% of the increase in consumer inflation last month.
    A broad array of products and services showed price drops, including airfares, down 1.6% from June, men’s suits, sport coats, and outerwear, down 4.2%, and used cars and trucks, down 2.3%. Prices for video and videogame rentals and subscriptions rose 7.6%, while hot dogs rose 4.4%.
    What’s Next: The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 could shrink to 2.6% from this year’s 3.2% increase, according to Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst and former analyst with the Senior Citizens League. In July she forecast adjustment to be a 2.7% increase.
  • If DJT gets to $1.38 ...
    @hank Be very leery of those FV ratings on stocks offered up by different sources. My own experience says they don’t know what they’re talking about. I believe in this case they were stuck in some kind of ”time warp”. Because small caps has suffered for many years compared to the S&P they must have allowed that to influence their own perception of value.
    Yup. I depend on stats from Stock Rover a lot, as well as checking Morningstar. Seems to me the Stock Rover site offers more, and more conveniently. At your fingertips. Fair Value at S.R. is distinguished from 12-month Target Price. Good to keep in mind. Still, Mr. Market has been known to be unpredictable. I also like to check out the Barron's webpage to investigate specific items, ratings, P/E and P/B and P/S. Short volume, Short percent of float. (Don't like a lotta Shorts in my soup.)
  • If DJT gets to $1.38 ...
    I learned the hard way that those “fair value” ratings are worthless.
    Bought 2 very depressed small-cap stocks more or less on intuition + personal knowledge of the companies June 26. (Posted in the B/S thread.) I later checked the ratings at M*, WSJ and Barron’s. All 3 said the stocks were already above fair value when I bought them and that neither warranted higher than an a 3 out of 5 as investment prospects.
    A week or two later the Russell blasted off, carrying those 2 holdings along for the ride. I sold in only 10 days time after both had jumped about 8-10% because I trusted those 3 publications over my own instincts. Had I hung on they would have jumped at least another 10% by now. Likely even more.
    Be very leery of those FV ratings on stocks offered up by different sources. My own experience says they don’t know what they’re talking about. I believe in this case they were stuck in some kind of ”time warp”. Because small caps has suffered for many years compared to the S&P they must have allowed that to influence their own perception of value.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    to own.

    “Yes, I take all my investment direction from various message board postings at MFO. Works like a charm.”
    What would be fun would be if MFO published its own “recommended portfolio(s)” around January 1 every year. Toss out several different models: Ultra conservative, conservative, moderate, aggressive growth, “super-duper” etc. Then we’d all know what to own.
    PS I bought LCORX a couple months after reading David’s excellent summation in last November’s observer. Hadn’t heard of it before then.
  • If DJT gets to $1.38 ...
    At $1.00 above its lowest close ever ($22.84 on 16 April), Morningstar rates DJT as a three-star stock. You're getting pretty okay value for your money, the computer thinks. Of course, "fair value" in March was $95/share. In April, $72 then 70, 43, 36 and (now) 49.
  • thinking about correlations within my non-retirement portfolio
    So, in general, I'm hopeful that each fund adds something to the strength of the whole portfolio. I tend to approach portfolio changes, additions especially, in three steps:
    1. is there something that I believe I should have exposure to (for a bad example, crypto) but don't? If yes ...
    2. is there a particularly good vehicle for gaining that access? Experienced manager, high insider investment, track record across multiple market cycles, clearly articulated positions on risk management and strategy capacity ... If yes ...
    3. is the fund highly correlated with something I already own? I might, for a bad example, think that crypto is interesting but learn that corporate high-yield debt is so correlated with crypto - presumably because they are driven by similar forces - that adding crypto has no benefit.
    Ran a correlation matrix just now. My top holding is FPA Crescent, at about 21% of the portfolio. For those not familiar, Crescent as a go-anywhere hybrid fund that started long ago as a hedge fund, has an absolute value discipline, about 60% equity just now, most of the rest in cash.
    Quick quiz: which of these funds is highly correlated (an R-squared of 85 or above) with Crescent?
    Grandeur Peak Global Microcap, 121 very small growth companies, about 13% EM exposure
    Leuthold Core, a quant-driven tactical allocation fund
    Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income, a GARPy emerging markets equity fund
    T Rowe Price Spectrum Income, a fund of actively managed T Rowe Price funds
    At the other end of the spectrum, which fund is most independent? T Rowe Price Multi-strategy Total Return, a sort of retail hedge fund, or Palm Valley Capital, a small cap value fund for people still shaking their fists at the 21st century?
    David
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Hi guys,
    Some old news:
    Yes, I was a dip buyer.....went from 17% cash to 9%.
    The largest add was to FXAIX. Seem to always buy that when I'm not sure what to buy.....a default position, I suppose. Also opened a small position in FSELX. It's a trade position. I do not intend to keep it long. Added to HACK. It's a keeper. Will add more on weakness. Added to IEO. Again, a trade---not a keeper. Also added PGTAX. I still believe in tech long term.
    Hoping for another pull back in September or October to add again.
    I do believe all is well.......sunshine and blue skies! https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/plugins/Emoticons/images/smile.gif
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/14/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/14/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (42.5%, above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (28.8%, below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (28.9%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +13.6% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (129+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (44+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds up, oil down, gold down, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 55.68% (positive). CPI +2.9%, core +3.2%; wholesale PPI +2.2%, core +2.4%. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1609/thread
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    "Is this a buy and forget fund, as I am looking for one? If this is not a buy and forget fund, what purpose does this fund serve in a portfolio?
    I would never buy an OEF (traditional mutual fund) that I didn’t consider a long-term hold (“buy and forget” to use @BaluBalu’s words).
    Luthold as a money manager has a great long term record. I believe they were primarily engaged in research / analysis for various big players (and well respected) before launching their own mutual funds. But nothing is guaranteed. The manager turnover is the main reason M* recently downgraded its rating of LCORX to silver from gold. Interestingly, LCOR retains their gold rating.
    To tread a bit further out onto the thin ice … The fund replaces DODBX in my 10-segment (equal weight) portfolio. I believe DODBX to be a better moderate risk long term hold. They’ve refined their process in recent years to reduce the potential for losses in bear markets and their fees are much more compelling. Not to argue the merits of each. Just perhaps to address BaluBalu’s question of where it might fit in a portfolio.
    Why did I get out of DODBX after a couple decades? I decided about a year ago to consolidate all holdings at Fidelity. While DODBX transferred in OK, it became awkward, to say the least, to rebalance it or increase its weighting without getting hit with a fee. Wasn’t worth the aggravation for me.
    I believe funds to an extent are captive to the economic environment of the day. No manager can prepare for every eventuality. While I loath the P-word infiltrating the investment part of the board, I think in about 84 days the economic / financial / social / political backdrop that now seems normal will transition to a much riskier more difficult environment.
    My last comment in this thread. Got a couple bucks riding on tonight’s Dodgers / Brewers game. :)
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    @Devo
    LCR YTD performance at 5.82% does not jump out at me in view of the below YTD performances
    Kinetics Global: 41%
    Calamos Global: 31%
    SPE: 21%
    QSPRX: 20%
    CPIEX: 26%
    COAGX: 21%
    QLEIX: 20%
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    LCORX charges 1.44% ER. That's a bit high for a conservative "go anywhere" fund. Would like to see that come down - even if it means 1 or 2 less ice-fishing trips for their Minnesota office.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    Hi, ship!
    Yep. Steve Leuthold (1937-2023) headed off to his cabin in Maine then, as Alzheimer's took its toll, to Carlsbad, California, to be with family. We've written a bit about the changes that followed. My general sense is that the team thought Steve's approach was getting a bit ahead of the data in his latter years, which is a problem for a group of quant investors. In his absence, they recalibrated a bit but maintained the core discipline that they'd been following since the 1990s.
    For what that's worth, David
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2024
    Hi @hank
    I subscribe to a newsletter that publishes a “recommended portfolio” consisting of 10 index funds
    ..... T Rowe Price (like TRRIX) typically invest in 15-25 other funds. What do you know that these managers don’t?
    The only thing we know that the 'managers' don't, is what we want to hold in our portfolio at this time.
    The TRRIX example that was noted has 27 other funds of funds. Way too many.
    As to 10 index funds, the same would apply at this time.
    If we had an advisor present such choices; the first input from us would be the 'elimination list'.
    ---NO International equity or bonds for either developed or emerging markets. NO value funds. NO hedged. NO high yield bonds. NO mid or small cap. NO metals.
    We're a Medicare/SS/pension(s) household, and while we enjoy having decent annual returns; we also have capital preservation in mind.
    Most of us spend $1,000's each and every year for house and auto insurance, and never file a claim; and the money is gone forever.
    We treat our bond fund holdings/MMKT's as 'investment insurance' currently using BAGIX (active managed). We'll not likely outrun inflation and taxes, but maintain the capital.
    The AGG bond etf is similar in high quality to BAGIX (ER = .30).
    I've watched over the years and charted these two against bond 'index' funds. BAGIX has maintained near 1% annualized above the returns of the other two (etf and index). AGG and bond index funds run very close paths. I'm not trying to sell, but to offer the view.
    Our portfolio is 40/60.
    ---The 40 in equity is split between growth (17%) and conservative equity (23%)(healthcare).
    ---The 60 is I.G. bond fund (33%) and MMKT (67% @5% yield).
    Technically, we have 7 holdings; if one counts the MMKT.
    NOTE: We've remained fully U.S. centered with investments since 2008. We have more than enough foreign exposure inside the equities, from their foreign earnings and/or some foreign holdings.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    :)
    Thanks @stayCalm
    You are correct that we all have different needs and assessment criteria. Often something I own makes sense only when put in the context of overall portfolio. I quick-scanned VBIAX. With 100% now at Fidelity it would not easily be available to me.
    For the sake of discussion, VIBAX’s bond quality is at least as high as LCORX (80-90% investment grade). Duration is slightly longer. Both bond portfolios might be termed of intermediate duration. Both funds hold about 60+% equity exposure (net of short positions). Interestingly, LCORX’s fixed income allocation is about half in cash. (Sounds like they’re expecting a buying opportunity.) VBIAX’s fixed income appears to be all in bonds with 0 cash.
    Unlike LCORX which has 10%+ 13%+ in short positions as a market hedge, M* lists VBIAX as holding none. I’m of the Marty Zweig era and so I’m always “… nervous Lou … ” Shorting equities is expensive, but (correctly applied) can dampen volatility & limit losses in down markets. Another slight difference is that LCORX has about 5% more allocated to basic materials. ISTM those haven’t done very well lately. (Give ‘em time.) My impression is that the guys running LCORX are very much “hands-on” managers. They seem to be moving the chips around a lot more than typical managers in an effort to protect capital and find promising investments in a challenging environment.
  • If DJT gets to $1.38 ...
    no wonder morningstar is agog about AI...their quant score has had hallucinations since inception.
    this particular issue is representative of the massive compensation:competence ratio for morningstar's layers of upper management. not only can they not assign an analyst to take over when obviously wrong, but they can not even bother to label it 'not rated'.
    so i'll help them here with a 10sec analysis :
    DJT has about $2 in cash for each share. however, minority shareholders will never seen any cash temporarily on the balance sheet. throw in a negative IRR on any cash spent and decreasing metrics on everything relevant, the imminent NPV is $0. so my 5star price is negative : -$2...someone needs to be paid in order to waste time holding it.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    "Today's note: "the 21-day correlation between Large Growth and Large Value turned negative for just the fifth time in 33 years. Two previous signals coincided with major rotations into the Value style.""
    If two out of five instances produced a specific result, is that a large enough probability to count as a signal?
    Looking at the past five years' stock style in M* portfolio, it looks like the fund had been in large blend category in each of those years.
    It would be great if some one can compare LCORX against a (or a group of) good value fund(s) for the entire year 2022.
    Is this a buy and forget fund, as I am looking for one? If this is not a buy and forget fund, what purpose does this fund serve in a portfolio. I shall read the fund profile @hank posted the link to.
    I echo the last two paras in @staycalm last post.