So, in general, I'm hopeful that each fund adds something to the strength of the whole portfolio. I tend to approach portfolio changes, additions especially, in three steps:
1. is there something that I believe I should have exposure to (for a bad example, crypto) but don't? If yes ...
2. is there a particularly good vehicle for gaining that access? Experienced manager, high insider investment, track record across multiple market cycles, clearly articulated positions on risk management and strategy capacity ... If yes ...
3. is the fund highly correlated with something I already own? I might, for a bad example, think that crypto is interesting but learn that corporate high-yield debt is so correlated with crypto - presumably because they are driven by similar forces - that adding crypto has no benefit.
Ran a correlation matrix just now. My top holding is FPA Crescent, at about 21% of the portfolio. For those not familiar, Crescent as a go-anywhere hybrid fund that started long ago as a hedge fund, has an absolute value discipline, about 60% equity just now, most of the rest in cash.
Quick quiz: which of these funds is highly correlated (an R-squared of 85 or above) with Crescent?
Grandeur Peak Global Microcap, 121 very small growth companies, about 13% EM exposure
Leuthold Core, a quant-driven tactical allocation fund
Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income, a GARPy emerging markets equity fund
T Rowe Price Spectrum Income, a fund of actively managed T Rowe Price funds
At the other end of the spectrum, which fund is most independent? T Rowe Price Multi-strategy Total Return, a sort of retail hedge fund, or Palm Valley Capital, a small cap value fund for people still shaking their fists at the 21st century?
David

Hi guys,
Some old news:
Yes, I was a dip buyer.....went from 17% cash to 9%.
The largest add was to FXAIX. Seem to always buy that when I'm not sure what to buy.....a default position, I suppose. Also opened a small position in FSELX. It's a trade position. I do not intend to keep it long. Added to HACK. It's a keeper. Will add more on weakness. Added to IEO. Again, a trade---not a keeper. Also added PGTAX. I still believe in tech long term.
Hoping for another pull back in September or October to add again.
I do believe all is well.......sunshine and blue skies! https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/plugins/Emoticons/images/smile.gif
God bless
the Pudd

AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/14/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (42.5%, above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (28.8%, below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (28.9%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +13.6% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (129+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (44+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds up, oil down, gold down, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 55.68% (positive). CPI +2.9%, core +3.2%; wholesale PPI +2.2%, core +2.4%. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1609/thread

"Is this a buy and forget fund, as I am looking for one? If this is not a buy and forget fund, what purpose does this fund serve in a portfolio?

I would never buy an OEF (traditional mutual fund) that I didn’t consider a long-term hold (“buy and forget” to use @BaluBalu’s words).
Luthold as a money manager has a great long term record. I believe they were primarily engaged in research / analysis for various big players (and well respected) before launching their own mutual funds. But nothing is guaranteed. The manager turnover is the main reason M* recently downgraded its rating of LCORX to silver from gold. Interestingly, LCOR retains their gold rating.
To tread a bit further out onto the thin ice … The fund replaces DODBX in my 10-segment (equal weight) portfolio. I believe DODBX to be a better moderate risk long term hold. They’ve refined their process in recent years to reduce the potential for losses in bear markets and their fees are much more compelling. Not to argue the merits of each. Just perhaps to address BaluBalu’s question of where it might fit in a portfolio.
Why did I get out of DODBX after a couple decades? I decided about a year ago to consolidate all holdings at Fidelity. While DODBX transferred in OK, it became awkward, to say the least, to rebalance it or increase its weighting without getting hit with a fee. Wasn’t worth the aggravation for me.
I believe funds to an extent are captive to the economic environment of the day. No manager can prepare for every eventuality. While I loath the P-word infiltrating the investment part of the board, I think in about 84 days the economic / financial / social / political backdrop that now seems normal will transition to a much riskier more difficult environment.
My last comment in this thread. Got a couple bucks riding on tonight’s Dodgers / Brewers game. :)

@Devo
LCR YTD performance at 5.82% does not jump out at me in view of the below YTD performances
Kinetics Global: 41%
Calamos Global: 31%
SPE: 21%
QSPRX: 20%
CPIEX: 26%
COAGX: 21%
QLEIX: 20%

LCORX charges 1.44% ER. That's a bit high for a conservative "go anywhere" fund. Would like to see that come down - even if it means 1 or 2 less ice-fishing trips for their Minnesota office.

Hi, ship!
Yep. Steve Leuthold (1937-2023) headed off to his cabin in Maine then, as Alzheimer's took its toll, to Carlsbad, California, to be with family. We've written a bit about the changes that followed. My general sense is that the team thought Steve's approach was getting a bit ahead of the data in his latter years, which is a problem for a group of quant investors. In his absence, they recalibrated a bit but maintained the core discipline that they'd been following since the 1990s.
For what that's worth, David

Hi @hank

I subscribe to a newsletter that publishes a “recommended portfolio” consisting of 10 index funds

..... T Rowe Price (like TRRIX) typically invest in 15-25 other funds. What do you know that these managers don’t?

The only thing we know that the 'managers' don't, is what we want to hold in our portfolio at this time.
The TRRIX example that was noted has 27 other funds of funds. Way too many.
As to 10 index funds, the same would apply at this time.
If we had an advisor present such choices; the first input from us would be the 'elimination list'.
---NO International equity or bonds for either developed or emerging markets. NO value funds. NO hedged. NO high yield bonds. NO mid or small cap. NO metals.
We're a Medicare/SS/pension(s) household, and while we enjoy having decent annual returns; we also have capital preservation in mind.
Most of us spend $1,000's each and every year for house and auto insurance, and never file a claim; and the money is gone forever.
We treat our bond fund holdings/MMKT's as 'investment insurance' currently using BAGIX (active managed). We'll not likely outrun inflation and taxes, but maintain the capital.
The AGG bond etf is similar in high quality to BAGIX (ER = .30).
I've watched over the years and charted these two against bond 'index' funds. BAGIX has maintained near 1% annualized above the returns of the other two (etf and index). AGG and bond index funds run very close paths. I'm not trying to sell, but to offer the view.
Our portfolio is 40/60.
---The 40 in equity is split between growth (17%) and conservative equity (23%)(healthcare).
---The 60 is I.G. bond fund (33%) and MMKT (67% @5% yield).
Technically, we have 7 holdings; if one counts the MMKT.
NOTE: We've remained fully U.S. centered with investments since 2008. We have more than enough foreign exposure inside the equities, from their foreign earnings and/or some foreign holdings.
Remain curious,
Catch

:)
Thanks @stayCalm
You are correct that we all have different needs and assessment criteria. Often something I own makes sense only when put in the context of overall portfolio. I quick-scanned VBIAX. With 100% now at Fidelity it would not easily be available to me.
For the sake of discussion, VIBAX’s bond quality is at least as high as LCORX (80-90% investment grade). Duration is slightly longer. Both bond portfolios might be termed of intermediate duration. Both funds hold about 60+% equity exposure (net of short positions). Interestingly, LCORX’s fixed income allocation is about half in cash. (Sounds like they’re expecting a buying opportunity.) VBIAX’s fixed income appears to be all in bonds with 0 cash.
Unlike LCORX which has 10%+ 13%+ in short positions as a market hedge, M* lists VBIAX as holding none. I’m of the Marty Zweig era and so I’m always “… nervous Lou … ” Shorting equities is expensive, but (correctly applied) can dampen volatility & limit losses in down markets. Another slight difference is that LCORX has about 5% more allocated to basic materials. ISTM those haven’t done very well lately. (Give ‘em time.) My impression is that the guys running LCORX are very much “hands-on” managers. They seem to be moving the chips around a lot more than typical managers in an effort to protect capital and find promising investments in a challenging environment.

no wonder morningstar is agog about AI...their quant score has had hallucinations since inception.
this particular issue is representative of the massive compensation:competence ratio for morningstar's layers of upper management. not only can they not assign an analyst to take over when obviously wrong, but they can not even bother to label it 'not rated'.
so i'll help them here with a 10sec analysis :
DJT has about $2 in cash for each share. however, minority shareholders will never seen any cash temporarily on the balance sheet. throw in a negative IRR on any cash spent and decreasing metrics on everything relevant, the imminent NPV is $0. so my 5star price is negative : -$2...someone needs to be paid in order to waste time holding it.

"Today's note: "the 21-day correlation between Large Growth and Large Value turned negative for just the fifth time in 33 years. Two previous signals coincided with major rotations into the Value style.""
If two out of five instances produced a specific result, is that a large enough probability to count as a signal?
Looking at the past five years' stock style in M* portfolio, it looks like the fund had been in large blend category in each of those years.
It would be great if some one can compare LCORX against a (or a group of) good value fund(s) for the entire year 2022.
Is this a buy and forget fund, as I am looking for one? If this is not a buy and forget fund, what purpose does this fund serve in a portfolio. I shall read the fund profile @hank posted the link to.
I echo the last two paras in @staycalm last post.

Bought LCORX today because it came up in MFO conversation, Schwab lets me buy only $100 initially and because it's been on my watchlist forever. It will sit right next to PRPFX, and I can see which fund "wins". LOTS of excitement.
Good times.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001593547/000139834424014407/fp0088809-1_497ixbrl.htm
Target Funds-------------------------------------->Acquired Fund
Ninety One Emerging Markets Equity Fund---->American Beacon Ninety One Emerging Markets Equity Fund
Ninety One Global Franchise Fund----------->American Beacon Ninety One Global Franchise Fund
Ninety One International Franchise Fund------>American Beacon Ninety One International Franchise Fund

Based on above stats, about the same risk and returns for both. So LCORX is not for me but I'm happy to learn from others on why LCORX.

@stayCalm - David and others may want to engage in comparisons with similar funds. Personally, I’ve never felt obliged to justify what I own …
I don’t use the types of comparisons you reference in selecting a fund. What do I care about? I look very hard at the holdings in a fund’s portfolio, including bond duration & credit quality and also any short positions. To a lesser extent I rely on literature about process from the manager. I also look at what M* sees as a fund’s overweight and underweight concentrations. Where possible I view the fund’s 2008 performance. Fortunately, it is available for LCORX, unlike many funds. Of course fees matter. Some of the high ER is attributable to the fund’s short positions.
In all cases, to be included in my portfolio a holding must be viewed as complementing all the other parts of the portfolio - the desired effect being lower overall volatility. I don’t claim to own the best fund in every category or even pay it much heed to that.
-
Re: “Why LCORX?” - The credit quality in the bond portion is very high (about 80% investment grade). While David referenced their recent shorting of QQQ, the fund has long held some short positions (SPDN). The fund discourages frequent trading and the $10,000 minimum should discourage a lot of retail level churn. I value a stable investor base. The firm is long-established and known for its research capabilities. Their recent commentary reflects a cautious disposition toward equity markets. The fund’s largely domestic orientation serves to balance out some significant foreign exposure elsewhere in my portfolio.
Link to David’s November 1, 2023 Commentary in which he profiles Leuthold.

+1. Smart cookie, @hank. Thanks for the message. I note your new position in RIO. I've been eyeing it. But I'm trying to KISS it. Keep things not so spread out "from hell to breakfast." Gotta unload something else before I go there.

Over the period Dec 2000 to July 2024 here are some select stats comparing LCORX to VBIAX (my standard go to benchmark, debatable on whether one size fits all benchmark is appropriate but I do it for convenience). First number for all of below is LCORX and except Sortino, numbers are rounded off.
- CAGR: 7% v 7%
- Max DD: 37% v 32%
- Sortino: 0.78 v 0.84
- 1/3/5 Yr Retuns: 14/5/8 v 15/4/9
- Rolling 1/3/5 Returns: 8/7/7 v 7/7/8
Based on above stats, about the same risk and returns for both. So LCORX is not for me but I'm happy to learn from others on why LCORX.

From Sgt. rono
I prefer to use longer smoother steadier trends myself as they're easier to spot. And as FA said, it's not picking the absolute bottom nor top with a longer trend. With a 4 or 5 year trend, there's plenty of money to be made from between the 20 and 80 yard line - you don't have to go endzone to endzone. And again, all you're trying to do is to improve the returns of your portfolio over that of the 'great unwashed.'
Now a couple of tactics. First you need to have an exit strategy and you must follow it. Even if it 'stops you out' prematurely, you MUST follow it. With stocks you can set Stop Loss points, but you can also set mental stop loss points with mutual funds. For volatile sectors, you can use 10%-15% give back from your high. For more staid sectors, you could use 5-10%. Your call but FOLLOW IT.
When riding a trend, I scale in and scale out. Some go all at once, but I go incrementally. Perhaps I'm just a chicken. Ok.
For example, 6 months ago, I started noticing China via CAF. After watching this for a few weeks where it continued to diverge from the rest of asia and other markets, let's say I decide to play it. My intention is to invest $10K (round numbers for example). Ergo, I invest $2500 first and watch it for a week or so. If it makes me money and stays in the green, I go ahead and invest another $2500 . . . and watch it for a week or so. If it continues green I drop the remaining $5000. And watch it.
Scaling OUT is the same in reverse. Let's say I'm using 10% pull back from the highs for my 'stop loss'. It does so. I sell 25% of my holdings and watch it. If it drops some more, I sell another 25% and watch it. If it drops some more, I sell the rest. Note that depending upon how steep the drop, you may just bail much more quickly. And you MUST exit when the market says. I don't care what your feelings are, all that matters in this case is what the Captain says. You can always find another trend, but you simply do NOT want to give back all your gains.
And that is the trap that many fall into - they identify the trend, climb on board, ride it up and fail to get off and ride it back down. This leads to net/net zero. feh. This is why you must follow your exit strategy faithfully.
The nicest thing about trend or momentum investing is that you can still have a very passive buy & hold porfolio with much of your money - say 90% and just play with 10% and improve your returns over that of the average.
peace,
rono
Added : From May 2009 I'm wondering how rono is doing ?

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312524200350/d637629d497.htm
497 1 d637629d497.htm INTERNATIONAL GROWTHFUND SAI SUPPLEMENT
 
111 South Wacker Drive, 34th Floor
Chicago, IL 60606-4302
harborcapital.com
Supplement to Statement of Additional Information dated March 1, 2024
August 14, 2024
Harbor Funds’ Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve Harbor International Growth Fund (the “Fund”). The liquidation of the Fund is expected to occur on October 23, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). The liquidation proceeds will be distributed to any remaining shareholders of the Fund on the Liquidation Date.
Shareholders may exchange shares of the Fund for another Harbor fund, or redeem shares out of the Fund, in accordance with Harbor’s exchange and redemption policies as set forth in the Fund’s prospectus, until the Liquidation Date.
In order to ready the Fund for liquidation, the Fund’s portfolio of investments will be transitioned prior to the planned Liquidation Date to one that consists of all or substantially all cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. As a result, shareholders should no longer expect that the Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective of seeking long-term growth of capital.
Because the Fund will be liquidating, the Fund is now closed to new investors. The Fund will no longer accept additional investments from existing shareholders beginning on October 16, 2024.

It's not just Schwab's interpretation. That's the way the IRS interprets time of identification - up to the time of delivery (settlement).

Time for making identification. For purposes of this paragraph (c), an adequate identification of stock is made at the time of sale, transfer, delivery, or distribution if the identification is made no later than the earlier of the settlement date or the time for settlement required by Rule 15c6-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, 17 CFR 240.15c6-1 (or its successor)

26 CFR § 1.1012-1(c)(8)

Trade date is the day your order to buy or sell a security is executed; settlement date is the day your order is finalized and on which funds and the securities must be delivered.

FINRA, Understanding Settlement Cycles

You can “almost” rent a decent room near Times Square for the price of that steak dinner! :)
Locally, Glenfiddich 12 is going for $55.