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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    Trump tells car manufacturers NOT to hike car prices from tariffs he imposed. As it stands, car manufacturers stand to loss billions of added cost. Can you envision what it does to their earnings?
    Does the man know his math, let alone economics?
    https://apple.news/Ai1tFLzL6S9m2lSPhDAx3oQ
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    "The US stock market is by far the best one long term."
    I believe US stocks will perform well in the long-term
    and most stock investors should have a healthy allocation to the US.
    This does not necessarily mean the equity portion of their portfolios should be 100% US equities.
    For example, wouldn't it have been beneficial for retirees (presumably withdrawing from portfolios)
    to have foreign stocks in addition to an S&P 500 fund during the "Lost Decade"?
    "So, it boils down to timing and trading."
    No, it really doesn't.
    Numerous studies have indicated excessive trading often leads to lower returns.
    It boils down to creating a sensible investment plan with an asset allocation
    suitable to an investor's risk tolerance/risk capacity,
    and then sticking to the plan (making adjustments as needed based on life changes).
    Some investors may find it helpful to work with a financial advisor to develop this plan.
  • Fido’s “basket” option
    Just short of chaos is how I’ll rate this newfangled “basket” option at Fido.
    Yesterday a dividend was received from one of the 9 CEFs. But it was “reinvested” into the fund (as I’d previously established) separately. In other words, the share total in the “basket” for this fund did not increase. Rather, a new position in the fund for the amount of the dividend received appeared in the more traditional folder at Fidelity (chump change). When I was unable to transfer that amount into the “basket” and merge it with the larger holding I could not. Called Fido for help. I was assured the dividend would “recycle” over night and be combined into the larger position.
    The above failed to materialize after 24 hours. This morning I cancelled the free one month basket enrollment online. According to Fido’s literature, cancelling should have taken all basket holdings out of the basket and placed them into the original account folder with everything else. Did not happen. I tried moving “all” manually. No go. I tried moving some individually and was told by their robot I couldn’t move any out unless I set the allocation back to 100% for all the ones left behind in the basket. ? ?
    I called Fido again today. They tried to help. We got all but 2 funds out of the basket. Two remain with target allocations of 50% each. I am assured no trades will execute as a result of this. I am a told the remaining funds will be captive to the basket until my “free trial” expires in about 25 days from now. (As far as I can tell, there’s no real significance to this.) To see where the account stood, I attempted a test sale from a couple of the former and current basket inhabitants after market open. While all the shares in question could be sold, only the option to sell a specific number of shares surfaced. No way to sell a dollar amount. As if trying to sell or buy across 9 basket funds isn’t difficult enough … it will now be even more difficult with my having to convert dollar sums into shares for each of the 9. Fortunately, this shouldn’t be necessary very often.
    Ahhh - Tread carefully. If your dividends can’t be reinvested back into the Fido basket, over time it will distort the weightings and make managing the basket cumbersome.
    PS - The basket approach from an investment standpoint is working as expected. It’s running 1-2% ahead of the diversified allocation fund the money came out of - albeit most of that a result of 1 fortuitous trade. The overall daily volatility is lower with the basket of CEFs compared to the previous allocation fund. But six weeks is too soon to say. The CEFs are roughly evenly divided between bonds and equities. As of this morning the bond portions are hare having a nice day.
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    @FD1000 who asked "What is your record of forecasting, timing, and trading?"
    Good question. What is yours other than your say so?
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    I have read similar articles over 10 years. One day it would be true, maybe even this year.
    The US stock market is by far the best one long term.
    So, it boils down to timing and trading.
    So, when someone writes an article like that, my question is
    What is your record of forecasting, timing, and trading?
  • Morningstar Prospects List
    @Observant1: Thanks for bringing this to the attention of the forum.
    Morningstar Prospects—a list of up-and-coming or under-the-radar investment strategies that Morningstar Manager Research monitors to potentially bring under full
    coverage
    Which accounts for the inclusion of Fidelity Fund FFIDX, started in 1930.
    Some others (semi-random selection):
    VEGBX Vanguard Emerging Markets Bond
    BFRIX BlackRock Floating Rate Income
    PRCFX TRP Capital Appreciation and Income
    ARHBX Artisan International Explorer
    JEEIX JHancock Infrastructure
    Apparently this is a regularly published list (annually?).
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    Throughout history ruling classes have done whatever it takes to create an underclass equivalent to financial slavery, to perform labor that is ruinous to health and long life. It is no coincidence that the Trump administration is intent upon choking off any type of support for low-income Americans, which will eventually force them into the farm fields to replace the workers who are now being deported.
    3/28- This, thanks to a lead by @Crash. Edited excerpts from a report by CNN:
    Florida debates lifting some child labor laws to fill jobs vacated by undocumented immigrants
    Florida has been working for years to crack down on employers that hire undocumented immigrants. But that presented a problem for businesses in the state that are desperate for workers to fill low-wage and often undesirable jobs.
    Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and the state legislature have a potential solution: children. The state’s legislature on Tuesday advanced a bill that would loosen child labor laws, allowing children as young as 14 years old to work overnight shifts. If the new law is passed, teenagers would be able to work overnight jobs on school days. They are currently prevented from working earlier than 6:30 am or later than 11 pm per state law.
    The bill passed through the Florida Senate’s Commerce and Tourism committee on Tuesday with five votes in favor of the loosened child labor restrictions and four against them. The bill will pass through two other relevant committees before being put to a vote with the full Florida Senate. DeSantis is supportive of the law and has been vocal of cracking down on immigration, echoing President Donald Trump’s rhetoric. However, economists have warned that could backfire, sparking further inflation and labor shortages.
    “Why do we say we need to import foreigners, even import them illegally, when you know, teenagers used to work at these resorts, college students should be able to do this stuff,” DeSantis said last week at a panel discussion with border czar Tom Homan, as first reported by the Tampa Bay Times.
    The state has been easing up on child labor protections for years. Last year, the legislature passed a law allowing home-schooled 16- and 17-year old teens to work any hour of the day.
    The state’s Republican-led legislature on Tuesday will debate the new law, which also includes a number of changes including eliminating working time restrictions on teenagers aged 14 and 15 if they are home-schooled and ending guaranteed meal breaks for 16 and 17 year olds.
    The number of child labor violations in Florida has nearly tripled in recent years, according to US Department of Labor statistics.
  • T Rowe Price ETFs in registration
    "T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ-GS: TROW), a global investment management firm, announced today the addition of two new active transparent equity exchange-traded funds (ETF): T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income ETF (Ticker: TCAL) and T. Rowe Price Hedged Equity ETF (Ticker: THEQ)."

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/t-rowe-price-expands-active-equity-etf-roster-with-two-new-transparent-offerings-302413283.html
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    ++++++ @Anna. He prefers the 1890s (McKinley), and that's where his mob is trying to take us. For real.
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    "The narrative of the past 17 years has been the outperformance of US stocks, with the main explanation
    being US exceptionalism. Our analysis reveals that a statistically insignificant portion of this outperformance
    stemmed from superior earnings growth, with the lion’s share driven by expanding US valuations
    and a strengthening dollar — raising concerns about its sustainability.
    History teaches us that such trends are rarely permanent, with economic regimes and relative valuations
    prone to reversion."

    https://www.morningstar.com/markets/how-sustainable-is-us-exceptionalism
  • Removal of Reliable Economic Data
    Well, I'm certain that will make Trump think twice¹.
    ¹   ("think twice"): He will double his efforts to remove any independent oversight.
  • T Rowe Price ETFs in registration
    @WABAC,
    If my memory is right, I thought TRP ETFs are semi-transparent. Do you by any chance know if TCAL is fully transparent?
    TCAL volume today is 14K. I did not check its launch AUM.
    Edit: The newer TRP ETFs are transparent, while the older ones continue to be semi-transparent. You can find the list here (the ones notated with * are semi-transparent) -
    https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investment-research-tool.html#investment=Exchange+Traded+Fund&assetClass=u.s.+equity&category=All&shareClass=All&tabname=Performance
  • Removal of Reliable Economic Data
    Would it be possible that by removing advisory boards it might be easier to cook (even maybe overcook) the government books?
    You mean like redefining words to mean what the government wants them to mean (thank you Humpty Dumpty)?
    Reuters: US Commerce Secretary wants to remove government spending from GDP
    ECONOMISTS ARE WARY
    Economists cautioned against changes to the current national accounts structure as it would make GDP very volatile and difficult to get a clear view of the economy's health, creating more uncertainty.
    "I don't think the stock market, the financial markets would like that," said Sung Won Sohn, Finance and Economics professor at Loyola Marymount University.
    It would also be impossible to compare the U.S. economy's performance against its global peers.
    Looking at the private sector alone would not give the full picture on growth, Sohn said.
    "Economic growth over time would become a lot more volatile. The reason is, when the economy slows or, when we are in a recession, for example, the government spends a lot of money," he said.
    Removing government spending from GDP would distort the figure as government productivity is assumed to be zero whatever the production is in the computation of GDP.
    "It's imperative that we keep the current system because, we need to make comparisons, and it's important to know how well we are doing compared to a year ago, five years ago, 10 years ago, and we can learn from our mistakes," Sohn said.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 2/28/25
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 2/28/25
    Some shift out of stock funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $39.79 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $397.9 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #ICI #Funds #OEFs #ETFs
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.36%, Hybrids 4.24%, Bonds 17.81%, M-Mkt 17.59%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1924/thread
  • Ultra-ST ICSH Prospectus Supplement
    Changes for Ultra-ST ICSH (ER 8 bps) relate to a switch from maturity-based to duration-based portfolio construction. The name will change too.
    Current Name: iShares Ultra Short-Term Bond Active E.T.F.
    New Name: iShares Ultra Short Duration Bond Active E.T.F.
    https://www.ishares.com/us/library/stream-document?stream=reg&product=ISHICSH&shareClass=NA&documentId=1253480~2338529~1094609~2317799~2253106~2252037~1870754~1896230&iframeUrlOverride=/us/literature/prospectus/p-ishares-us-etf-trust-active-10-31.pdf
    Other Ultra-ST ETFs https://etfdb.com/etfs/bond-duration/ultra-short-term/
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    Be ready for the price hike for just about all name brands. So much wins with these tariffs and their impact on inflation.
    https://apple.news/A8j5V1-XQTu6Gk1aIVZJZQA
    Treasury secretary Bessent stated that " “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream.” Having a vehicle to go work while earning a living and feed your family is NOT an American Dream!
    https://cnbc.com/2025/03/06/treasury-secretary-bessent-says-the-american-dream-is-not-about-access-to-cheap-goods.html
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/26/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/26/25
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (52.2%, very high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (20.34%, very low); bullish remained the middle sentiment (27.4%, low); Bull-Bear Spread was -24.8% (very low). Investor concerns: Tariffs, jobs, budget, debt, inflation, Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (161+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+ weeks; cease fire). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 37.60% (negative). New April tariffs are almost here but details remain pending. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1923/thread
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    @FD1000- Hey there - you think that any of this might impact your financial situation?
    Edited for civility. OJ, good sir, please don't let your annoyance take over.
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    And here's some additional from The New York Times with respect to car parts:
    President Trump said on Wednesday that he would impose a 25 percent tariff on cars and car parts that were imported into the United States, a move that could encourage U.S. auto production over the longer run but is likely to throw global supply chains into disarray and raise prices for Americans who buy an automobile.
    The tariffs will go into effect on April 3 and apply both to finished cars and trucks that are shipped into the United States and to imported parts that are included in cars assembled at American auto plants. Those tariffs will hit foreign brands as well as American ones, like Ford Motor and General Motors, which assemble some automobiles outside the country, including in Canada or Mexico.
    Nearly half of all vehicles sold in the United States are imported, as well as nearly 60 percent of the parts in vehicles assembled in the United States. That means the tariffs could push up car prices significantly when inflation has already made cars and trucks more expensive for American consumers.
    Cox Automotive, a market research firm, estimated that a 25 percent tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada would add $3,000 even to the cost of a car built in the United States. Tariffs would add $6,000 on average to the prices of cars made in Mexico or Canada, a category that includes vehicles like the Toyota Tacoma pickup, gasoline and electric versions of the Chevrolet Equinox, and several models of Ram pickups, according to Cox estimates.
    Stock markets fell on news that the auto tariffs would be imposed. Shares of major carmakers tumbled further in after-hours trading, after the White House clarified that the tariffs would also cover imported auto parts. General Motors was down nearly 7 percent and Ford and Stellantis were more than 4 percent lower after the markets closed. Tesla’s stock fell 1 percent in extended trading.
    Comment: Elections do indeed have consequences. Welcome to Trump World.