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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Investors Are Dumping ‘Alt’ Funds; Precisely The Wrong Time?
    Gotta love these self-promoting articles from Barrons. Concur with Edmond assessment. Through the market's ups and downs, Vanguard Wellesley is a solid and consistent fund with an expense ratio unmatched by any ALT funds. In the past 10 years the annual total return is over 7.1% while charging 0.16% fee.
  • Fund Manager Q&A: USAA's Matt Freund Defends Holding Cash
    FYI: Sometimes the best choice is to make none at all, particularly when all the options look risky.
    So if you're deciding whether to invest in stocks, bonds or something else, remember that you could leave some of it in cash. So says Matt Freund, chief investment officer of USAA's mutual funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/17919795aa5442ed9450ad294bc208e9/fund-manager-qa-usaas-matt-freund-defends-holding-cash
  • Closed End Bond Funds
    There are plenty of closed-end bond funds trading at 10-15% discounts and paying out 9-12% distributions. They're usually either global bond funds, emerging market bonds or junk bonds. They'll usually use leverage, tend to be owned by individuals rather than institutions, and are often subject to year-end tax selling (I'd guess that this will be the case this year, but I'll emphasize that word 'guess').
    One thing that I'd be careful about is that the particular fund is only paying out the income that it's earning. Many of them return your capital to you in order to pay out a large distribution. I'm looking at DSL (another Doubleline cef), BGH (short-term junk) and the AllianceBernstein Global Income cef whatever its ticker symbol is (AWF?). They seem to fit the high distribution, high discount criteria while paying out only income earned. Good management teams, too, I think. Personally I'll wait until January if I do buy.
  • Doubleline Global Bond Fund launches November 30th (lip)
    Edmund's got a good point - BOND does look like a global fund these days. It looked much more like a conventional IT-TR bond fund when I owned it in 2012-13.
  • BRUSX

    BRUSX risk/return metrics across various time frames ...
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  • Closed End Bond Funds
    Does anyone have any thoughts on these Closed End Bond Funds, or others? I know that Doubleline also has a Closed End Bond Fund, DBL, but it is at a +2.54 premium.
    Bonnie Baha said that "A good alternative for investors interested in corporate credit is closed-end bond funds, some of which trade at "incredible discounts,"
    From Kiplinger
    Two closed-ends worth considering: Pimco Income Opportunity Fund (PKO, $22.61), which invests in all types of debt, from mortgages to corporate and government bonds, trades at a 6.5% discount to NAV and yields a whopping 9.4%. BlackRock Multi-Sector Income Trust (BIT, $15.75), which invests mostly in corporate bonds and asset-backed securities, sells at a 15.7% discount to NAV and yields 8.9%. Both funds employ leverage. (Share prices, yields and discounts are as of November 12.)
    Read more at http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T041-C009-S003-doubleline-s-gundlach-buy-closed-end-bond-funds-in.html#g4YlAZdx3GK82cTy.99
  • BRUSX
    I am a long term share holder in this fund but last 10 years have been miserable if you look at 1, 3, 5, 10 years performance. Has this fund lost its charm ? (bottom 10% of smallest). I have been unable to decide if to hold this fund or trim it enough for now to stay in the fund? It is missing consistency and inception to today performance still looks excellent but not last 10 years.
    Clueless. :-)
  • Doubleline Global Bond Fund launches November 30th (lip)
    Actually, for anyone looking for a global bond fund, I'd suggest they look at a not-so-obvious choice which is right in front of us... Pimco's BOND ETF.
    Ostensibly, its an intermediate/core bond ETF. However it seems to be able to deploy allocations anywhere, within certain limits: Its prospectus allows up to 30% to be deployed to non-USD denominated foreign debt (with no apparent limit on USD-denominated foreign debt). It currently has a net-short allocation to developed foreign, and a ~ 17% allocation to EM. The EM position has probably hurt them a bit here. But EM looks cheap to me, relative to other bond-market sectors. It is certainly unloved. BOND will probably never have a measurable chunk of assets in Ukraine (a la Hassenstab). But that may be a good thing.
    Gross' departure in late 2014 struck me as a positive for management of the PIMCO funds --- he struck me as erratic in the 2-4 years before he left. (Very bizarre that M* seems 'conflicted' about that event.) The current troika running the ETF strike me as among the strongest in the bond-management industry. AUM in BOND and its much bigger, but similarly-managed OEF cousins (PTTRX etc.) has shrunk dramatically. -- Frankly, I never thought the large AUM was an issue, but for those who did, that issue should now be off the table.
    Anyway, for someone wanting a global bond, one probably tamer than most, and with a strong management pedigree, BOND might be one to consider.
    JMO.
  • Would You Let A Mystic Manage Your Investment Portfolio?
    In a few weeks, Barrons will host the Round Table discussion with the financial gurus, and forecasting their picks for 2016. If Lou Rukeyser is still with us today, he would run the same year-end Wall Street show. These are great entertainment, but not for serious investment advice.
  • Confusion About Funds For Taxable Vs. Non-Taxable
    What I did to pull up Fidelity's fund was a quick search based on the criteria I gave: A or better, intermediate term, and sorted on SEC yield. Fidelity's fund was very close to the top (both in ranking and yield).
    Another familiar face in the same neighborhood was Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond (VBILX). If I'm going to go with a bond index fund, I prefer intermediate over full market, because the latter ones are stuck with short term bonds (yielding nothing), and long term bonds (adding risk). Sometimes those bonds make sense in a fund, but IMHO not mechanically. VBILX has somewhat better total return, but with slightly increased volatility.
    Which gets us to your question about total return funds. These are funds that are managed to take advantage of changes in the bond market - some sectors may be offering better value, or it may make sense to increase/decrease maturity (yield curves do not shift evenly, but the amount of change in rates depends on maturity and type of bonds). MWTRX does an excellent job at capturing this. But this is an aggressive strategy. It gives up current yield in order to capture appreciation by trading up and down yield curves (hence "total" return). Not as steady an income source, though a good fund like this one can do better in total performance (or worse, if it errs). @Junkster can likely give a better commentary.
    MBS bonds bring up a whole different set of issues. They typically offer a somewhat better yield than "regular" bonds, because they are not well behaved in markets where rates are changing rapidly. That's largely because they typically have calls built in - if you buy a home with a mortgage, and rates drop, you'll refinance (call the bond). So the bond holder doesn't benefit from the falling rates (and rising bond prices). On the other hand, if rates rise, you'll extend the life of the mortgage, taking advantage of the lender.
    Gundlach is superb in managing these risks with derivatives. His funds still have risks. M* does not rate his funds; it's not just because they don't get along, but because they do not understand what he is doing. You can bet on the manager, or decide not to invest in what you don't understand.
    In a sense, bonds and bond funds are very straightforward - there's no magic. If you want better performance, you take commensurately more risk. Risk comes in various flavors - credit/default risk, interest rate risk, sector risk, call risk, etc. I named FBNDX because it's a pretty vanilla fund without much risk in any dimension. Just what one might want as a "steady Edy" type of cash cow for income. Take incrementally more risk and the yield may grow more lumpy, the returns may come in the form of appreciation (you may need to sell shares to realize the income), and you're more likely to have the occasional "whoops" moment.
    I use a few different bond funds, mostly in my IRAs, for diversification and total return. So I'm not averse to using funds all along the risk axis. They just have different uses. Right now, I don't see bond funds as being great for generating current income - for paying bills.
    FWIW, a couple of other somewhat familiar and cheap funds I see in the same vicinity are PYCBX (unfortunately, $100K min) and William Blair Bond (WBBNX with a 12b-1 fee, or WBFIX with a TF to get at a brokerage with a reasonable minimum).
  • Harbor Emerging Markets Debt Fund to liquidate
    uh, i think you misread this, @TheShadow. The EM Debt Fund is long dead and gone. http://www.harborfunds.com/20219.htm
    This is a supplement to the supplement, so to speak, announcing a managerial change to the HY Bond Fund on Jan 1, 2016.
  • Harbor Emerging Markets Debt Fund to liquidate
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312515389490/d39381d497.htm
    497 1 d39381d497.htm HARBOR FUNDS
    Harbor Fixed Income Funds
    Supplement to Prospectus dated March 1, 2015
    Harbor High-Yield Bond Fund
    The following information regarding Shenkman Capital Management, Inc., the subadviser for Harbor High-Yield Bond Fund, will be changing effective January 1, 2016:
    Mark Flanagan, one of the six co-portfolio managers for Harbor High-Yield Bond Fund, will be retiring from Shenkman Capital Management, Inc. at the end of 2015. Mark Shenkman, Eric Dobbin, Justin Slatky, Steven Schweitzer and Robert Kricheff will continue to serve as co-portfolio managers for the Fund following Mr. Flanagan’s retirement using the same team-based approach with Mr. Dobbin remaining the lead portfolio manager of the Fund.
    November 27, 2015
    Harbor Emerging Markets Debt Fund
    Harbor Funds’ Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve Harbor Emerging Markets Debt Fund. The liquidation of the Fund is expected to occur on April 29, 2015. The liquidation proceeds will be distributed to any remaining shareholders of the Fund on the liquidation date.
    Shareholders may exchange shares of the Fund for another Harbor fund, or redeem shares out of the Fund, in accordance with Harbor’s exchange and redemption policies as set forth in the Fund’s prospectus, until the date of the Fund’s liquidation.
    Because the Fund will be liquidating, effective immediately a redemption fee will no longer be applied to the redemption of any shares out of the Fund.
    In order to ready the Fund for liquidation, the Fund’s portfolio of investments will be transitioned prior to the planned liquidation date to one that consists of all or substantially all cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. As a result, shareholders should no longer expect that the Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective of maximizing total return.
    Because the Fund will be liquidating, the Fund is now closed to new investors. The Fund will no longer accept additional investments from existing shareholders beginning on April 22, 2015.
    March 6, 2015
  • Confusion About Funds For Taxable Vs. Non-Taxable
    I don't see most taxable bond funds as yielding enough (with sufficient stability) to be particularly useful these days for income. For income, it seems the idea is to generate a steady reliable cash flow without eating into principal. That would limit me to A grade or better, and (on average) intermediate term bonds.
    BBB may be "investment grade" but there's a reason why it's not called A-. There's a significant jump in risk between letters. Intermediate term because long bonds don't offer enough of an increase in yield to be worth the risk - especially in a low (and likely rising) interest rate environment. Short term bonds simply pay too little.
    So one winds up with funds like Fidelity Investment Grade Bond (FBNDX). SEC yield a tad under 3%. (I use SEC yield because it incorporates both the coupon payments and the decline, if any, in principal; that's something you need to watch for in a longer term investment.)
    Compare that with a strategy of combining a MMA (1%) with broadly diversified equity funds. The latter should return a couple of percent above bonds (expecting 5%-6% over time is not unreasonable). This approach comes with more volatility, which is why one uses the MMA for cash - this needs to be much larger than the proverbial emergency fund. Over time, as the equity market does well, one sells shares and moves to cash. When the equity market swoons, one draws from the MMA.
    Plusses are an expected higher average rate of return than a bond portfolio, and lower taxes (the dividends and cap gains from the equity funds will be taxed less than the bond fund alternative). Just as you wrote. Minuses are that this requires closer monitoring and a tolerance for greater volatility on paper.
    You can throw in some munis to give more stability and another source of income in case you're queasy about selling lots of equity at one time (when the market is up, to replenish the MMA).
    As interest rates go up, one might make more use of bond funds for income, but I don't see them helping much right now. (Multisector, junk, etc. are different - but one invests in them much as one invests in equity - for total return and diversification - and this is why they wind up in nontaxable accounts.)
    In short, one can make a barbell out of the "three bucket" strategy, discarding the middle bucket as dead weight.
  • S&P 500 At 3,500 By 2025: 67.3% Increase
    @Edmond said
    OTOH, 2025 is 10 years away. The odds of a nice, smooth 5.3% each year are so infinitesimal as to not even to be considered a possibility. Wherever we wind up 10 years hence, it won't be a smooth ride.Observation: we are now in the midst of the 7th year of the current Bull. We are overdue for a Bear. And Bear events tend to correlate at/near Presidential handoffs.
    And History "BEARS" This Out With All It's Volatility
    2000
    -9.03%
    2001
    -11.85%
    2002
    -21.97%
    2008
    -36.55%
    Overview of Markets 1928-2014
    http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html
  • thanks!
    G.K. Chesterton, one of those remarkable 19th century "men of leisure" who subverted Victorian thought then dragged it into the next century, once maintained “that thanks are the highest form of thought, and that gratitude is happiness doubled by wonder.” I am, more than you know, grateful to you all.
    (And I do wonder about you sometimes, but that might be a separate matter.)
    With wishes for joy in the season ahead,
    David
  • S&P 500 At 3,500 By 2025: 67.3% Increase
    If we take 2092 as "a little below 2100" and divide it into 3500, we get 1.673, or a 67.3% increase. If we divide 67.3% by 10 years, we get 6.73% per year, as stated above. However, this is the wrong way to do it. Approximately 5.3% per year, as Edmond calculated, is correct because 1.053 raised to the 10th power is 1.676, close enough to 1.673.
  • Would You Let A Mystic Manage Your Investment Portfolio?
    FYI: It’s that time of year again when the mystics peer deep into their tea leaves, entrails and crystal balls to divine what’s ahead.
    Happy Thanksgiving,
    Ted
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/get-there/would-you-let-a-mystic-manage-your-investment-portfolio/2015/11/25/cc731cae-92b7-11e5-8aa0-5d0946560a97_story.html