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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Canada Prepares to Join E.U. Military Industry Buildup
    I've lived in and traveled to roughly 75 countries. In 2002 I was working in Bangkok and had to visit a customer in Phuket (a resort area in the south of Thailand). Before leaving Bangkok I received an email from the Canadian embassy alerting me of people in the airport wanting to prick Americans with AIDS filled needles. Only Americans. I made it through security and had no problems.
    After meeting my customer in Phuket I went through the airport security in Phuket and sat to read a magazine near my departure gate. I noticed an Asian woman approaching each Causasian man. When she came to me she asked, "Excuse me sir, are you American?". I said no and showed her my Canadian flag patch. She smiled and walked away. No other foreigners looked like Americans, so we all lived.
    I've never had anyone come up to me and specifically ask me if I'm American, only this one time. It's common for people to ask me where I'm from, and most of these people are simply being curious and kind. But not this once!
  • Vanguard Survey Reveals Savings Blind Spot: Idle Cash
    Well, even leaving the money in the Vanguard sweep account currently earns 3.65%. That's a lot better than Schwab's approach. One side benefit to Schwab is that I visit the account every day to see if anything needs to be transferred, and that's a good thing from a security standpoint.
  • Vanguard Survey Reveals Savings Blind Spot: Idle Cash
    Vanguard Cash Plus Account benefits
    One account. Two ways to divvy up your cash:
    Keep all your money in the bank sweep program [and/or] Diversify into 5 Vanguard money market funds
    https://investor.vanguard.com/accounts-plans/vanguard-cash-plus-account
    Investors can use a Vanguard Cash Plus account to invest in some of the highest paying MMFs. Though with this account they still cannot invest in anything else, be that 3-month T-bills or a newfangled MM ETF.
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
    Re: “ Curious why you established positions in both funds. Aren't PYLD and PIMIX very similar funds with the same managers?”
    I have a large position in PYLD, and reestablished a larger position in PIMIX recently.
    Short term, PIMIX seems to have regained momentum..

    Curious why you established positions in both funds. Aren't PYLD and PIMIX very similar funds with the same managers?
    Most of my assets are in taxable accounts (80%). Thus, I am aware of taxes if I consider switching funds.
    Interesting exchange. Another reason might be to retain the buy / sell flexibility for rebalancing or other purposes which an etf provides compared to an OEF. This assumes one would prefer having most of their investments inside the OEF.
  • Canada Prepares to Join E.U. Military Industry Buildup
    This was preceded by Canada rethinking its F-35 purchase.
    With all the chatter of a possible F-35 kill switch, it’s a smart move. Even if not true, the “kill switch” would come in the form of turning off support/updates to software, firmware and hardware.
  • Canada Prepares to Join E.U. Military Industry Buildup
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The New York Times:
    Canada’s draft deal to participate in Europe’s defense industry will bring contracts to Canadian manufacturers and help lessen dependence on the United States.
    Canada is in advanced talks with the European Union to join the bloc’s new project to expand its military industry, a move that would allow Canada to be part of building European fighter jets and other military equipment at its own industrial facilities.
    The budding defense cooperation between Canada and the European Union, which is racing to shore up its industry to lower reliance on the United States, would boost Canada’s military manufacturers and offer the country a new market at a time when its relationship with the United States has become frayed. Shaken by a crisis in the two nations’ longstanding alliance since President Trump’s election, Canada has started moving closer to Europe. The military industry collaboration with the European Union highlights how traditional U.S. allies are deepening their ties without U.S. participation to insulate themselves from Mr. Trump’s unpredictable moves.
    Canada’s new leader, Prime Minister Mark Carney, this week made Paris and London the destinations of his first overseas trip since taking office on Friday, calling Canada “the most European of non-European countries.”
    Two officials, one from the European Union and one from Canada, with direct knowledge of the discussions said detailed talks were underway to incorporate Canada into the European Union’s new defense initiative. The goal is to boost the E.U.’s defense industry and eventually offer a credible alternative to the United States, which is now dominant.
    Specifically, the officials said, Canada would be able to become part of the European military manufacturing roster, marketing its industrial facilities to build European systems like the Saab Gripen jet, a competitor to the American F-35, which is made by Lockheed Martin. According to the terms of the discussion Canada would also be given preferential access to the E.U. market for military equipment, an alternative to buying equipment from the United States.
  • FOMC Statement, 3/19/25
    NOTES from above & Powell's presser
    Rates: Fed funds held at 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate at 4.40%, discount rate at 4.50%. Treasury QT slowed to -$5 billion/mo (from -$25 billion/mo), MBS QT continued at -$35 billion/mo, probably until the MBS holdings are all gone. Flows in Treasury General Account (TGA) were a consideration in the QT reduction.
    Inflation is elevated, but declining. Tariffs are contributing some to inflation, more for goods inflation. They are also affecting the short-term inflation-expectations & that may be transitory. Retaliatory tariffs are hard to predict, but the Fed assumes the worst case.
    Economy is strong. Recession probabilities remain low.
    Labor market is solid. Wage increases aren't inflationary. Both hiring & layoff levels are low.
    The effects of new government policies for trade, fiscal policy, immigration & deregulation aren't in the data yet. The uncertainties are high. Confidence & sentiments are low, but the data look OK for now. Consumer unhappiness is from high price levels for groceries & services, but those are backward-looking (low inflation doesn't mean low prices). The Fed can wait & watch.
    New SEPs were released & discussed.
    Fed's 5-year review is continuing with focus on labor & jobs now.
    Powell dodged questions about the firing of 2 FTC commissioners & the impact of DOGE checks (=< $5,000).
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1913/thread
  • Federal Reserve cuts US economic growth outlook amid Trump tariffs
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Officials raise inflation forecast to 2.7% this year, as Fed chair Jerome Powell says uncertainty is ‘remarkably high’
    Officials at the US Federal Reserve cut their US economic growth forecasts and raised projections for price growth as they kept interest rates on hold.
    “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased,” the central bank said in a statement, as Donald Trump’s bid to overhaul the global economy with sweeping tariffs sparks concern over inflation and growth. Policymakers at the Fed expect inflation to increase by an average rate of 2.7% this year, according to projections released on Wednesday, up from a previous estimate of 2.5%.
    They expect US gross domestic product (GDP) – a broad measure of economic health – to rise by 1.7% this year, down from an estimate of 2.1% in December. Officials also revised down their projections for GDP growth in 2026 and 2027, to 1.8%.
    Uncertainty is “remarkably high”, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, cautioned, as the Trump administration attempts to engineer radical economic change. “I don’t know anyone who has a lot of confidence in their forecast.” Some of the increase in the Fed’s inflation expectations was “clearly” due to tariffs, Powell said.
    Fed officials maintained the benchmark interest from 4.25% to 4.5% following their latest two-day policy meeting. A closely watched “dot plot”, which shows policymakers’ predictions for the trajectory of rates, indicated that they might cut them twice over the course of this year.
    “Surveys of households and businesses point to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook,” Powell said at a news conference. “It remains [to be] seen how these developments affect future spending and investment.”
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
    I have a large position in PYLD, and reestablished a larger position in PIMIX recently.
    Short term, PIMIX seems to have regained momentum..

    Curious why you established positions in both funds. Aren't PYLD and PIMIX very similar funds with the same managers?
    Most of my assets are in taxable accounts (80%). Thus, I am aware of taxes if I consider switching funds.
  • S&P 500 slides into correction territory as Trump trade wars spook investors
    @a2z, excellent post. Perfectly summarizes the MAGA lens.
    https://apnews.com/article/trumps-comments-about-stock-market-dba336a82ffaf000b80e7218d749995a
    A look at some of Trump’s observations on the stock market over the last year:
    Jan. 29, 2024, on Truth Social
    “THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP — EVERYTHING ELSE IS TERRIBLE (WATCH THE MIDDLE EAST!), AND RECORD SETTING INFLATION HAS ALREADY TAKEN ITS TOLL. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”

    March 12, 2024, on Truth Social

    “High Interest Rates and Inflation are choking our great middle class, and ALL, our Economy is bad, and our Stock Market is rising only because Polls are strongly indicating that we will WIN the Presidential Election of 2024.”
    April 25, 2024, on his way into court for his criminal trial in New York
    “The stock market is, in a sense, crashing. The numbers are very bad. This is Bidenomics. It’s catching up with him. It’s lucky that it’s catching up before he leaves office as opposed to after he leaves office.”
    May 15, 2024, on Truth Social
    “Thank you to Scott Bessent, one of the Great Prognosticators on Wall Street! There are many people that are saying that the only reason the Stock Market is high is because I am leading in all of the Polls, and if I don’t win, we will have a CRASH of similar proportions to 1929. I agree, but let’s hope we don’t have to worry about that!”
    May 18, 2024, at an NRA event in Dallas, Texas:
    “We are a nation whose stock market’s continued success is contingent on MAGA winning the next election.”
    July 16, 2024, on Truth Social
    “Dow Jones UP 742 based on the fact that the Market expects a TRUMP WIN in November! Nice compliment — Thank you!”
    Aug 4, 2024 on Truth Social
    “STOCK MARKETS CRASHING. I TOLD YOU SO!!! KAMALA DOESN’T HAVE A CLUE. BIDEN IS SOUND ASLEEP. ALL CAUSED BY INEPT U.S. LEADERSHIP!”
    Aug. 14, 2024, at a rally in Asheville, North Carolina
    “If Harris wins this election, the result will be a Kamala economic crash, a 1929-style depression. 1929. When I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom. It’ll be a boom. We’re going to turn this country around so fast. Many people say that they only reason the stock market is up is because people think I am going to win.”
    Oct. 29, 2024, during a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania
    “You want to see a market crash? If we lost this election, I think the market would go down the tubes.”
    Nov. 4, 2024, at a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan
    Trump started praising Bessent and said: “You know what his theory is? The stock market is the only sign of life, and it’s only going up because everyone thinks Trump is going to win the election. And others, too. Others, too. I’m seeing it a lot. I think they’re following your lead. But I appreciate that confidence.”
    Nov. 14, 2024, at a Mar-a-Lago gala in Florida:
    “We had three or four of the highest -- I guess, almost every single day, we set new records in the stock market. We set new records economically.”
    Trump, in comments directed at House Speaker Mike Johnson, then said: “Mr. Speaker, I think it’s important, maybe you should pass a bill, you have to start my term from Nov. 5, OK, or Nov. 6, if you want. Nov. 5 because the market has gone through the roof. Enthusiasm has doubled.”
    Dec. 12, 2024, in an interview with CNBC at the New York Stock Exchange:
    Trump was asked by host Jim Cramer whether it’s still the case that stock market indexes were a good barometer of his performance.
    “Well, I think I’ve always said, you know, to me, stock market is very — all of it, you know, all of it together, it’s very important. It’s an honor to be here in New York Stock Exchange. I sort of joked that I actually bought the building across the street because the stock exchange was here. It’s a big deal.”
    Dec. 16, 2024, during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago
    Trump was asked whether he is concerned that his tariffs might hurt the stock market.
    “Make our country rich. Tariffs will make our country rich,” Trump responded.
    Jan. 7, 2025, during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago

    “Since my election, the stock market has set records. The S&P 500 index has broken above 6,000 points for the first time ever, never even close.”
    Jan. 19, 2025, at a rally in Washington, D.C.
    “Everyone is calling it the — I don’t want to say this. It’s too braggadocious, but we’ll say it anyway — the Trump effect. It’s you. You’re the effect. Since the election, the stock market has surged, and small business optimism has soared, a record 41 points to a 39-year high.”
    Feb. 19, 2025, at an investment conference in Miami Beach
    “I think the stock market is going to be great. In other words, we will rapidly grow our economy by dramatically shrinking the federal government.”
    Feb. 21, 2025, speaking to the nation’s governors at the White House
    “When we turned over the reins, the stock market was higher than just previous to COVID coming in, which was an amazing achievement.”
    House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., right, and Vice President JD Vance, left, listen as President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress at the Capitol in Washington, March 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)
    House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., right, and Vice President JD Vance, left, listen as President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress at the Capitol in Washington, March 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)
    March 4, 2025, in a joint address to Congress
    Having sparked a North American trade war and with the S&P 500 losing all of its post-election gains, Trump said in his speech to Congress: “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again, and it’s happening and it will happen rather quickly. There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.”
    March 9, 2025, in a taped interview on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures”
    After a week of wild swings on Wall Street over uncertainty about his tariffs, Trump was asked whether he was expecting a recession in 2025. He said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.” He added, “It takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I think it should be great for us.”
    Elsewhere in the interview, when Trump was asked about the market going down: “You can’t really watch the stock market. ... You can’t go by that. You have to do what’s right.”
    March 9, 2025, to reporters on Air Force One
    When asked about his hesitation during the “Sunday Morning Futures” interview before answering the recession question, Trump said: “I tell you what, of course you hesitate. Who knows? All I know is this: We’re going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, and we’re going to become so rich you’re not going to know where to spend all that money. I’m telling you, you just watch.”
    President Donald Trump arrives to speak at the Business Roundtable quarterly meeting in Washington, Tuesday, March 11, 2025, as Business Roundtable Chair and Cisco Chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins watches. (Pool via AP)
    President Donald Trump arrives to speak at the Business Roundtable quarterly meeting in Washington, March 11, 2025, as Business Roundtable Chair and Cisco Chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins watches. (Pool via AP)
    March 11, 2025, to reporters at the White House
    Trump was asked about the market after a selloff Monday and more trembling on the markets Tuesday. “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down. We have to rebuild our country,” he said.
    In response to a question about whether his tariffs caused the turmoil in the markets, Trump said: “Biden gave us a horrible economy. He gave us horrible inflation. And I think the market was going to go very, very bad. If anything, I have a lot of very smart people, friends of mine, and great businessmen. They’re not investing because of what I’ve done.”
    On whether he thinks there will be a recession: “I don’t see it at all. I think this country’s going to boom. But as I said, I can do it the easy way or the hard way. The hard way to do it is exactly what I’m doing, but the results are going to be 20 times greater. Remember, Trump is always right.”
    March 12, 2025, to reporters at the White House
    While giving a long answer to a question about his trade policies, Trump said, “I think a lot of the stock market going down was because of the really bad four years that we had, when you look at inflation and all of the other problems, I mean wars and inflation and so many others problems.”
    Later in his remarks, Trump said he is bringing back the country financially and said: “Financially, we’ll be stronger than ever before. I think the markets are gonna soar when they see what’s happening.”.
  • S&P 500 slides into correction territory as Trump trade wars spook investors

    in partial agreement, real investors should not care so much about a president that is made of misleading falsehoods and every daily pivot is some sign of genius. but nothing is booming like the MAGA excuse economy.
    and regardless of self claims, nothing could be simpler than seeing that gop investors completely piled in on american equities during the very short-lived 'trump bump' and already have started to leave.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-survey-shows-biggest-ever-085031844.html
    but dont worry, MAGA's interest in the economy will also fade if numbers indicate a 'fake' recession. i expect they will all return if the genius cancels tariffs , declares victory, and suddenly takes interest in the market again.
    nothing on earth more predictable.
  • S&P 500 slides into correction territory as Trump trade wars spook investors
    It's amazing how many people are so sure that stock decline is related to a prez they don't like.
    But when the price goes up they forget it conviently.
    Because your prez tells us that when stocks rise, it's his doing, and when they fall, it's not.
    In his own words: Trump takes credit for stock market rises but casts aside blame for sell-off
    https://apnews.com/article/trumps-comments-about-stock-market-dba336a82ffaf000b80e7218d749995a
    By the way, do you want me to give you a few things to see in Australia, so you don't post aimlessly while on vacation?
  • BofA Survey Shows Biggest-Ever Drop in US Stock Allocations
    ”(Bloomberg) -- Investors have slashed holdings of US equities by the most on record, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey, underscoring the massive rotation that’s underway in global markets. Fund managers reported being about 23% underweight in US stocks — a plunge of 40 percentage points from the previous survey.
    ”In another marker of investor caution, cash levels have risen to 4.1% from 3.5%, the biggest jump since 2020, according to the survey. Traditionally defensive plays, such as consumer staples, also registered an increase in allocations, while tech had a sharp decline.”
    Story at Yahoo
  • Nuveen Mid Cap Value 1 Fund did not receive enough votes supporting reorganization
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820892/000119312525056091/d839706d497.htm
    497 1 d839706d497.htm NUVEEN INVESTMENT FUNDS, INC.
    NUVEEN MID CAP VALUE 1 FUND
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MARCH 18, 2025
    TO THE PROSPECTUS AND SUMMARY PROSPECTUS DATED FEBRUARY 28, 2025
    At a special meeting held on March 5, 2025, shareholders of Nuveen Mid Cap Value 1 Fund (the “Fund”) did not approve the proposed reorganization of the Fund into Nuveen Mid Cap Value Fund that was previously approved by the Board of Directors of the Fund (the “Board”) in September 2024.
    As described in the proxy materials provided to Fund shareholders in connection with the proposed reorganization, the Board will review and take such action as it deems to be in the best interests of the Fund, including continuing to operate the Fund as described in the prospectus, liquidating the Fund, or such other options the Board may consider. Fund shareholders will be notified when the Board approves a course of action for the Fund.
    PLEASE KEEP THIS WITH YOUR PROSPECTUS
    AND/OR SUMMARY PROSPECTUS
    FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    MGN-FMCVSP-0325P
  • Macquarie Global Allocation Fund to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883622/000113743925000223/497.htm
    497 1 497.htm
    IVY FUNDS
    Macquarie Global Allocation Fund (formerly, Delaware Ivy Wilshire Global Allocation Fund)
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus (as amended), Statutory Prospectus (as amended) and Statement of Additional Information (as amended), each dated October 30, 2024
    On February 11-13, 2025, the Board of Trustees of Ivy Funds approved the reorganization of the Fund (Reorganization) into and with a substantially similar fund and class of Macquarie Balanced Fund, a series of Ivy Funds. Subject to the requisite shareholder approval, the Reorganization is now expected to take place on or about June 27, 2025 (Reorganization Date).
    As noted in the supplement dated February 13, 2025, no contingent deferred sales charge will be assessed in connection with any redemption of shares of the Fund prior to the Reorganization.
    Effective one week before the Reorganization Date, the Fund will close to new investors and existing shareholders.
    Prior to the closing of the Reorganization, the Fund will distribute to its shareholders, in one or more distributions, all of its income and gains (net of available capital loss carryovers) not previously distributed for taxable years ending on or prior to the Reorganization Date.
    Because everyone’s tax situation is unique, you should consult your tax professional about federal, state, local, or foreign tax consequences before making an investment in the Fund or acting on a distribution check.
    Delaware Management Company is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Macquarie Group Limited (MGL). None of the entities noted in this document is an authorized deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia) and the obligations of these entities do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (Macquarie Bank). Macquarie Bank does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of these entities. In addition, if this document relates to an investment (a) each investor is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested and (b) none of Macquarie Bank or any other Macquarie Group company guarantees any particular rate of return on or the performance of the investment, nor do they guarantee repayment of capital in respect of the investment.
    Please keep this Supplement for future reference.
    This Supplement is dated March 18, 2025.