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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Portfolio for possible early retirement
    Hello,
    Due to some medical issues I may be forced to find ways to generate income. I have read this forum for some time and think the members here are top notch. I've managed my own investments for about 15 years and consider myself pretty knowledgeable. However, truth be told, I'm no expert with bonds or bond funds.
    I have sought out the advise of a financial advisor and one consultant from a major discount brokerage. Both had very different opinions. The financial advisor recommended a basket of American Funds. The consultant recommended several ETF's, like BAB and high yield mutual funds. ( The actual recommended portfolio only had 18% dividend paying stocks)
    Most of the assets are in a taxable account. But, I guess, I can't allow the possible tax ramifications to dictate every investment decision.
    I'm thinking of funds like:
    VWINX
    PONDX
    SCHD
    DLTNX
    High yield bond ?
    Short term ?
    Trying to generate around 4% yield with around 30% in high quality stocks, if possible. I know that interest will likely keep going higher and this could cause serious issues with the bond portion.
    I would absolutely love to hear the thoughts and opinions from forum members. Thanks in advance
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    @AndyJ, I am investing with Andrew Foster's fund but not this new EM value fund. For now it is too new for me and I prefer the Seafarer Oversea Growth and Income fund. Mr. Foster track record goes back to the days of Matthew Asia Growth & Income fund.
    If you wish to invest in the institutional shares, Seafarer makes it possible for retail investors with a minimum of $1,500 with an automatic investment of $100 (minimum). So you really don't need $25K as the minimum. Also you can transfer additional IRA fund from other brokerages to Seafarer if you wish. Andrew Foster is one of the few fund manager I follow for many years.
  • Managed Futures Funds Gaining Traction Among Advisers
    Wow! A manager of a managed-futures fund produces a survey which might spark interest in its fund... Yeah, no conflict of interest there...
    Altegris' managed-futures fund (EVONX) is rated 5-star by M*, meaning it has among the best historical records in the managed-futures category. But let's take a look at that record. It commenced operating late 2011. So full year returns as follows:
    2012...(3.17)
    2013....0.67
    2014...25.92
    2015....3.02
    2016...(-0.33) [through 12/16/16]
    The above returns are net of 1.94% expenses (ouch!)
    My reaction? "meh". One "super" year. 4 X "ehh" years. The sequencing/size of the returns almost looks like one might "earn" at one of the gaming tables in Vegas. Makes one wonder what the 3-star rated fund returns look like in this category...
    Others may be interested, not I. When considering alternatives, I am looking for something that delivers mostly consistent, positive returns. I'm not looking for outsized returns, but consistent (-positive) ones. If an 'alternative' vehicle can't do that, well, there is fixed-income for ballast & income & equities for growth (with risk). In fact, old, reliable Vanguard Wellesley delivers more consistent, positive returns, thus a "smoother ride", and larger 5-year trlg returns.
    p.s. - looks like Gundlach is one of the managers.
  • After Rate Hike, Low-Volatility Funds Fall Short
    So far I've managed to say nothing in many words. It's complicated. The way volatility is reduced is by owning offsetting assets. But when the off-sets don't work as anticipated that spells trouble for the hedgers. I wasn't referring to being surprised by the Trump victory (though I was). Nor did I mean to infer I didn't think stocks could go higher after November (I did). And the Fed move was of course a no-brainer.
    The surprises which probably upset the hedges were: (1) Rather than money fleeing to the perceived safety of government bonds and gold after the Trump upset (as many seers expected) money moved in the opposite direction towards equities. The traditional safe havens fell hard. (2) Rather than stocks falling in the face of sharply rising interest rates (usually bearish for equities) stocks advanced. (3) As the Dollar strengthened (predictable in light of the interest rate moves) commodities should have fallen in response (a stronger dollar makes commodities less valuable in nominal terms.) They didn't. Instead, oil, copper and many other commodities rose right along with the dollar. Additionally, the EM markets, which normally befefit from higher commodity prices, instead fell sharply in response to other factors. A hedgie's nightmare.
    So if you set up programmed hedges based on expected relationships among interest rates, equities, commodities and the foreign exchange markets (Dollar vs other curtencies) your hedges wouldn't have worked very well post-election. I do think that should rates continue upward at this rate for a few more months it would spell trouble for equities. Heck, at some point some of us retirees will decide to vacate equities in favor of bonds. If you're 70 or 80 how much interest on short/intermediate duration bonds do you need to earn to entice you to move some money there?
    PS: I couldn't read Ted's linked article either. But I'm sure it was a fine one. :)
  • Outlook 2017: This Bull Market Has Legs
    FYI: The unexpected election last month of Donald J. Trump as president has been a game changer for the 10 investment strategists whose market outlook Barron’s solicits twice each year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=Outlook+2017:+This+Bull+Market+Has+Legs+Barron's
  • Managed Futures Funds Gaining Traction Among Advisers
    FYI: Investment advisers plan to increase their allocation to managed futures in 2017, according to a survey taken by Altegris Advisers at the InvestmentNews Alternatives Conference in Miami last month.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161216/FREE/161219946?template=printart
    M* Managed Futures Fund Returns:
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/managed-futures/$FOCA$13.aspx
  • Holiday Greetings From Roy Weitz
    @Archaic, Outstanding insight, and I fully agree !! I am a better saver and investor, and financially wealthier thanks to Roy (and of course Ted, the resident Linkster )!
    I always tell my beloved wife and loving mother of our seven children that there is only one thing worse than being old, and that is being old and poor. Statistically I will die before she will, and I don't want to see her live her last days in poverty. Granted, wealth does not ensure happiness, but maybe ...
    Money Can Buy Happiness
    Kevin
  • After Rate Hike, Low-Volatility Funds Fall Short
    Au contraire !!
    About one week after the election, we shifted funds to XSLV, which has worked over the past month and since inception. XMLV has not done as well in the short-term, but still has performed well since inception.
    CHART
    Kevin
  • After Rate Hike, Low-Volatility Funds Fall Short
    Not a subscriber so can't read.
    I'm not sure it requires reading. The headline statement seems like a logical deduction based on (1) bonds tumbling and (2) stocks soaring during the past 6 weeks.
    What's a bit surprising though is how well equities have performed in the face of sharply rising interest rates. Maybe some saw that coming. I sure didn't. And there's no guarantee that divergence will continue.
    As far as Wednesday's quarter point hiccup by the Fed - that was a non-event. Everybody, including the kid on our paper route, saw that coming weeks in advance. (At one point a week ahead of the FOMC meet Bloomberg reported a 120% chance of a hike based on an investor survey.)
  • The Closing Bell: Stock Market Gains Evaporate After China Seizes U.S. Underwater Drone
    @Anna, After January 20th 2017,Who knows?
    China state newspaper warns Donald Trump over Taiwan:
    'Pride comes before a fall'
    A Chinese state-run newspaper has launched an unprecedented attack on Donald Trump
    “The calculating businessman might feel shrewd about seizing China's fate by the throat through the Taiwan question,” the piece read. “However, the truth is this inexperienced President-elect probably has no knowledge of what he's talking about.”
    “He has overestimated the US's capability of dominating the world and fails to understand the limitation of US powers in the current era...China is now confident enough to arm-wrestle with the US."imageChina flies nuclear bomber over South China Sea as a 'message' to Donald Trump
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-bomber-flight-send-message-donald-trump-taiwan-a7468021.html
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-state-newspaper-donald-trump-taiwan-one-china-policy-a7471326.html
    More Trump Repercussions in Today's MarketFrom Seeking Alpha
    A dark shadow has crossed over parts of the retail sector as more analysts weigh in on the negative impact of a border tax adjustment on goods sourced from outside the U.S. The GOP and President-elect Trump are expected to agree to support some form of border adjustments.
    The border tax could be especially difficult for apparel and footweat companies to overcome.
    The border tax could be especially difficult for apparel and footweat companies to overcome.
    Retail stocks that trade weak today amid the discussion include Deckers Outdoor (DECK -6.6%), Fossil (FOSL -5.7%), Coach(COH -3.1%), Iconix Brand Group (ICON -2.9%), Ralph Lauren (RL -2.5%), Wolverine World Wide (WWW -2.3%), Lululemon .....
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/3231209-concerns-border-tax-whack-retail-names
  • Lower Cost Index Funds do not always outperform?
    All Indexes are Not Created Equal - a three paragraph article showing how large a difference index selection can make. Two small cap value index funds, two different indexes, large recent divergence.
    I've included below the 1 year graph from the article, comparing IWN (Russell 2000 Value index ETF) with VBR (CRSP Small Cap Value index ETF). Performance values are for NAV. Over the past year, the performance difference was about 7%.
    This shows how much of a difference index selection can make.
    The funds themselves outperformed their indexes (NAV) before fees. The Vanguard fund came in 5 basis points below benchmark, but with an ER of 8 basis points (3 basis points above benchmark before fees). The iShares fund did even better: 15 basis points above benchmark before fees of 0.25%.
    image
  • The Closing Bell: Stock Market Gains Evaporate After China Seizes U.S. Underwater Drone
    FYI: U.S. stocks traded lower Friday, with the Dow industrials swinging to a loss following reports that a Chinese warship seized an underwater U.S. Navy drone in international waters off the coast of the Philippines.
    Even as the Dow was curtailed from its advance to the psychologically important 20,000 level, the blue-chip average is still on track for its longest weekly winning streak, at six, in more than a year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/dollar-solidifies-its-climb-on-fed-outlook-as-japan-futures-rise
    Reuters:
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN1451N9
    MarketWatch:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-set-to-edge-closer-to-20000-even-as-other-markets-take-a-breather-2016-12-16/print
    USA Today:
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/12/16/asian-shares-muted-dollar-climbs-rate-outlook-sinks/95508208/
    IBD:
    http://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-backs-away-from-20000-oil-rises-alexion-gets-a-big-bounce//
    CNBC:
    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/16/stocks-open-higher-as-traders-eye-us-dollar.html
    AP:
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FINANCIAL_MARKETS?SITE=AP
    WSJ Markets At A Glance:
    http://markets.wsj.com/us
    Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures: Negative
    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    LOL. @VintageFreak: PRIJX (TRP) ...A very young fund, going back to Sept, 2015.

    Now you are talking. You guessed I asked the question because I wanted a place where I could buy without load and at brokerage. I do have an account with TRP and this seems like a good option to research.
    Thanks much.
    Let us know what you find!
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack Preview: Guest: François Trahan, Co-Founder, Partner Cornerstone Macro
    FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    December 15, 2016
    Preview Clip:

    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    The U.S. has been the place to be for investors this year, even more so after the election of Donald Trump as President. Since November 8th, U.S. stock markets have been on a tear, reaching new records and extending their lead over international markets by a substantial margin.
    As a recent Wall Street Journal headline put it: “The global dominance of U.S. stocks has been boosted by the post-election rally”, as well as the strength of the U.S. dollar, which has also been appreciating rapidly against other currencies. It hit a 14 year high Thursday against a basket of currencies. The market capitalization of U.S. stocks reached over $25 trillion in December, comprising more than 40% of the world’s stock market value, levels not seen since 2006.
    No other country comes even close. Despite rapid gains in China’s stock market size and value, it still has less than a 10% share of global market value.
    With low unemployment, corporate profits expected to pick up and stimulus anticipated from infrastructure spending, corporate tax cuts and regulatory roll backs more investors are jumping on the bullish bandwagon. Even the Federal Reserve acknowledges that economic conditions have improved significantly enough to allow it to boost interest rates this week, for only the second time in a decade. The way things are going, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen expects to raise interest rates another three times next year, in 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point increments.
    Improving conditions and this positive outlook are why the message from this week’s guest is such a stunner.
    In a WEALTHTRACK exclusive, Wall Street’s top ranked investment strategist is saying it’s time to put on the brakes and get much more defensive!
    He is François Trahan, Co-Founder, Partner and head of the Portfolio Strategy team at Cornerstone Macro, an independent macro research, policy and strategy firm he and his partners launched in 2013.
    Trahan was recently inducted into the All-America Research Team Hall of Fame by Institutional Investor magazine, having been ranked the number one portfolio strategist for 10 of the past 11 years by institutional investors.
    Up until recently Trahan was correctly bullish on the US stock market, as he has been for well over a year.
    No more. He is adamantly telling clients that this rally should be sold. He will explain what has changed.
    If you’d like to see the show before it airs, it is available to our PREMIUM subscribers right now. We also have an EXTRA interview with Trahan about what he describes as investing’s great mystery. Intrigued?
    Plus, WEALTHTRACK is available on a YouTube Channel. So if you are unable to join us for the show on television, you can watch it on our website, WealthTrack.com, or by subscribing to our YouTube Channel.
    Thanks for watching! Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best regards,
    Consuelo
  • Lower Cost Index Funds do not always outperform?
    Gosh, just do it, as the phrase goes. Since the turn of the century, FUSEX beats VOO by like 9 bucks on $10k, but SWPPX beats Fido by like $48. Woohoo and bfd.
    And all of them pounded by good actives (SSHFX, TWEIX, JENSX, and I did not even bother with my own faves).
  • Lower Cost Index Funds do not always outperform?
    My point was not that a particular index mutual fund should outperform the market...I was strictly comparing TRP index mutual funds to their nearest Vanguard counterpart.
    The VG index mutual funds have lower expense ratios than their TRP counterparts; nevertheless, the VG index mutual funds do not always outperform the higher cost TRP index mutual funds.
    There was a comment by a poster on M* that criticized TRP index funds receiving a "Bronze" medalist rating (the thought being that the rating was too high). The comparable VG index mutual funds receive a "Gold" medalist rating, but again, do not always outperform their higher cost competition.
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=784178
  • 2016 Capital Gains Estimates
    I also looked. Rainer hasn't even posted its 2015 dividends. See, e.g.
    http://rainierfunds.com/Strategies/SmallMidCapPortfolio/Pages/DistributionHistoryOriginal.aspx
    They'll know at closing today because they distribute on or about the 15th. Again, see link above for historical distribution dates, except for the 12/15/2015 distribution, which Morningstar gives you here.
    The figures Rainer is talking about won't be estimates but exact numbers after the funds close on their record date.
  • John Waggoner: How To Keep Clients From Going Wild When The Dow Hits 20,000
    am not anyone's client except for several mutual fund firms but am more nervous than going wild ,Right or wrong I am redirecting mutual fund distributions toa short term bond fund therefore reducing risks without generating additional capital gains I have now learned that after a seven year bull market one should not have actively managed mutual funds in a taxable account. 10% distributions cut into returns even if the fund outperforms
  • Holiday Greetings From Roy Weitz
    Hi Ted,
    Yes, I really appreciate it -- please say hello and season's greetings to everyone who might remember. I can't believe how much time and energy we spent on FundAlarm -- where did it all go (the energy in particular!) Things are well. Retirement is in the offing, perhaps a couple of years or so, and who knows: there might even be another Web site in me. Maybe something that combines cars, personal finance, and retirement planning? That would be fun.
    Thanks again, and all the very best to you and yours in 2017, and beyond.
    Regards,
    Roy