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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • ETF Liquidity A Growing Point Of Financial Industry Contention
    I think the benefits of ETFs vs OEFs are being oversold. Low E/Rs are great --- but those can be had by OEF investors too - Vanguard OEFs are certainly not expensive.
    The biggest DIS-advantage of OEFs for this writer are inconveniences imposed by sundry of the OEF firms themselves. Obviously, mainly assess sales-loads (front, back or level loads). But even sundry of the "no load" companies charge s/t trading fees which in some cases may be 1% or 2% of proceeds being liquidated. Then too, OEF investors (at least some of us) have to worry about OEF companies imposing soft- or hard-closings. Then too, brokerage fund supermarkets sometimes discontinue offering (or never begin to offer) OEF products. Compare that to ETFs, where most of the top-tier brokerages actually subsidize investors to invest in ETFs via NTF programs they offer.
    These are all "back office" type issues --- most of them created by the OEF industry, but they can be quite annoying, and don't seem to pop up with ETFs. After all, you'd have to be a profoundly stupid investor to buy a "loaded" ETF, even if one were offered.
    Still, I prefer the OEF vehicles, and have the overwhelming majority of my invested dollars in them vs. ETFs.
  • Replacement for FDSAX
    NTF @ TDAmeritrade.
    When someone asks for an alternative fund, it's hard to answer without knowing what there was about the original fund that appealed to the investor.
    FDSAX is a somewhat quantitative (rule based), highly concentrated, high dividend, large cap value fund. Depending on which attributes one is trying to preserve, one can come up with various different alternatives.
    SDOG is likely the closest match in the sense of these attributes. Like FDSAX it is rule based, in fact using a variant of one of FDSAX's rules (highest yielding stocks, or "dogs"; FDSAX using 10 DJIA dogs, SDOG using 5 dogs in each of ten S&P sectors). Unlike FDSAX its rules stop there, while FDSAX fleshes out its portfolio with quant-selected stocks.
    Both funds are highly concentrated, high dividend, large cap value.
    SCHD seems to come the closest to FDSAX in terms of stock selection. It tracks a rules-based index that gives it some of the flavor of the "fleshing out" portion of FDSAX's portfolio. However, its rules seem to be a mix of high dividend (which tend to lean toward value) and dividend growth/appreciation (which tend to lean toward blend). The result is a portfolio that is still value oriented, but closer to blend. And more diversified (about 100 stocks vs. 35).
    Morningstar considers VIG the closest ETF to SCHD. VIG is a dividend appreciation fund. As is typical of funds with this objective, it falls into the blend category and has a somewhat lower yield. If one looks at gross yield, before subtracting ERs, SCHD, and VIG have yields near 3%. vs. FDSAX which is closer to 3.5%. Going the other way, for pure yield (with fewer rules than FDSAX) one has SDOG with gross yield around 4%.
    I might have suggested VYM. It is focused on high dividends as opposed to dividend appreciation. But it goes all the way down to 50th percentile on stock yields. This leaves it with just a tad higher gross yield (3 1/4%) than the div appreciation funds, still value-oriented but highly diversified (over 400 securities). It has an even simpler rule-based system than the others - perhaps better transparency but basically a vanilla US index fund with bonus points for yield.
  • ETF Liquidity A Growing Point Of Financial Industry Contention
    FYI: For a lot of financial advisers, the primary appeal of exchange-traded funds boils down to low fees and liquidity. There is no disputing the low fees, which provide investors with varied and broad market exposure for mere basis points, in most cases. But the liquidity has become a growing point of contention throughout the financial services industry and is something advisers using ETFs need to follow.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160710/FREE/307109998?template=printart
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    I started following Synchrony Financial SYF recently.
    Had to sell OAK back in Feb/March with roll-over of my 401. Left proceeds in cash.
    Sold HCP this week with departure of Lauralee E. Martin. I've basically owned the stock her entire tenure. Left proceeds in cash.
    Remain heavy long-time holdings: BAC, AIG, AA, FAAFX and SIGIX.
    c
  • Replacement for FDSAX
    Whereas I have been very happy with the performance of FDSAX, I believe their 1.06 ER is too high and looking for a cheaper dividend fund replacement. I am considering an EFT of SDOG with an ER of .40 which I can get commission free at Schwab. Thoughts or other options? Thanks.
  • Another Tough Year For CalPERS As Retirement Fund Loses Billions
    FYI: Public workers are pumping more money into retirement funds. Public agencies are pumping more money into retirement funds.
    Yet the market seems distinctly unimpressed.
    The California Public Employees Retirement System – the nation’s largest – lost about 2 percent of its market value in the fiscal year that just ended, according to unofficial numbers published last week on the CalPERS website. This came despite doubled-down efforts to beef up its bottom line.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.ocregister.com/common/printer/view.php?db=ocregister&id=722198
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack Preview: Guest: Nick Sargen And Bill Wilby
    FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    July 14, 2016
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    For inspiration and levity I occasionally turn to Lewis Carroll’s classic,
    Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland. As I survey the still unfolding saga of Brexit, spreading negative interest rates around the world and the unsettling political scene in Europe and the U.S. two quotes seem particularly apt. As the Cheshire Cat told Alice about Wonderland: “We’re all mad here.” And as Alice opined: “it would be so nice if something made sense for a change.”
    This week’s guests are trying to make sense of highly unusual and in some cases unprecedented developments. One of those is Brexit. After decades of opting into the European Union, albeit on some of its own terms such as keeping the pound sterling as its currency, the United Kingdom opted out. A pressing question is will Britain be the lone exception, or the first of many to do so?
    A recent Pew Research poll found the EU was unpopular among substantial numbers of citizens in many countries. 71% of Greeks view the EU unfavorably, 61% of the French do, 49% of Spaniards and 48% of Germans agree.
    Since the financial crisis there has been talk of Grexit, Greece’s possible exit from the Eurozone. The latest candidate is Italy with “Quitaly” envisioned as its struggling banking industry reels under pressure from EU regulators.
    Then there is the impact of the unprecedented easing policies of central banks in major developed countries. On this week’s program, we’ll show you a chart from Evercore ISI that tells the story of the “Incredible Balance Sheet Expansion” of the big three. Since 2009, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan balance sheets have increased a cumulative +$8 trillion! Among other things, this helps explain why bond yields have plunged. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note has hit new lows in recent weeks, while yields on German and Japanese bonds are trading below zero in negative territory.
    In the week after the Brexit vote, Evercore ISI counted 18 more easing moves by central banks. How do these developments affect global economies and markets?
    On this week’s WEALTHTRACK, we will hear the views of two experienced global investors. Nicholas Sargen, Chief Economist and Investment Strategist at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, the asset management arm of Western & Southern Financial Group will join us for a rare television interview. Sargen holds a PhD in Economics, and has been international economist, global money manager and Chief Investment Officer for several major financial firms as well as an official at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    We’ll also be joined by William Wilby, in a WEALTHTRACK television exclusive. One of our Great Investors, now a private investor actively managing his own retirement account, Wilby was the Portfolio Manager of the award winning Oppenheimer Global Fund which was ranked number one in its category for the 12 years he ran it. A graduate of West Point, Wilby has a PhD in International Monetary Economics and has held various international finance and investment positions at several top financial institutions, including the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Both Sargen and Wilby believe the Brexit effect is far from over. I asked them why it is still so significant.
    If you miss the show on Public Television this week, you can watch it at your convenience on our website. You’ll also find web exclusive EXTRA interviews with Sargen and Wilby about investing in the 21st century.
    Thank you for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best Regards,
    Consuelo
    http://wealthtrack.com/
    .

             

  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    @AndyJ said ...yesterday sold a fairly large position in one muni cef (up a mind-boggling 14% ytd) and put the $ in PONDX and PTIAX, neither of which involve as much rate risk
    Good call Andy.My only holding in the space down 2.25 % today
    https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:OIA&ei=9TuIV8m9N8PCmAGIzqfgBw
    PTIAX has re-done it's web site.Good comparison to the big boys and where it differentiates here
    http://www.ptiafunds.com/documents/ptam-difference_ptiax_final.pdf
    New fact sheet here
    http://www.ptiafunds.com/documents/ptiax_factsheet.pdf
    Reviewing Jeremy Grantham's Mid May remarks.
    This relative optimism was an unusual position for me and the snapback in these markets has validated, to a modest degree, my thinking at the time. I still believe the following: 1) that we did not then, and do not today, have the necessary conditions to say that today’s world has a bubble in any of the most important asset classes; 2) that we are unlikely, given the beliefs and practices of the U.S. Fed, to end this cycle without a bubble in the U.S. equity market or, perish the thought, in a repeat of the U.S. housing bubble; 3) the threshold for a bubble level for the U.S. market is about 2300 on the S&P 500, about 10% above current levels, and would normally require a substantially more bullish tone on the part of both individual and institutional investors; 4) it continues to seem unlikely to me that this current equity cycle will top out before the election and perhaps it will last considerably longer; and 5) the U.S. housing market, although well below 2006 highs, is nonetheless approaching a one and onehalf-sigma level based on its previous history. Given the intensity of the pain we felt so recently, we might expect that such a bubble would be psychologically impossible, but the data in Exhibit 1 speaks for itself. This is a classic echo bubble – i.e., driven partly by the feeling that the substantially higher prices in 2006 (with its three-sigma bubble) somehow justify today’s merely one and one-half-sigma prices. Prices have been rising rapidly recently and at this rate will reach one and three-quarterssigma this summer. Thus, unlikely as it may sound, in 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices – much more dangerous than inflated stock prices in my opinion – might beat the U.S. equity market in the race to cause the next financial crisis.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3973997-always-cry-spilt-milk
  • Josh Brown: Caesar’s Wife Must Be Above Suspicion: Sequoia Fund
    I don't think new taxable investors should buy this year(The 17+$ distribution iin june could be followed up by large distribution in Dec (we just don't know) but starting next year a new investment could work out
    I do think a focused fund is the best chance to out perform in the large cap category.For those interested, this months Money has an aricle on Sequoia , Fairholme and FPA Crescent ;all funds with a great long term record and poor short term record.Like David they are most enthusiastic about FPA Crescent but I think unlike David least enthusiastic about Fairholme except for vey long term investors (20+ years) About Fairholme they noted that the fund invested in Sears in 2005 and has not sold its position.
  • Junk bonds break out above multi-year falling channel
    AJ, First chart is reality and what is happening to those who actually trade/invest/own a junk bond fund. Second is not reality because it is only price and dividends are not included. (Click on five year time period if my link only shows one year) You would think looking at the second chart junk bonds are nowhere near all time highs as in the first chart where they have been at all time highs this month. Actually, the accounts of those who have been long term holders of HYG are also at all time highs. But it sure isn't reflected in the charts.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV/
    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=hyg&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=12
  • Josh Brown: Caesar’s Wife Must Be Above Suspicion: Sequoia Fund
    FYI: Caesar divorced Pompeia at once, but when he was summoned to testify at the trial, he said he knew nothing about the matters with which Clodius was charged. His statement appeared strange, and the prosecutor therefore asked, “Why, then, didst thou divorce thy wife?”
    “Because,” said Caesar, “I thought my wife ought not even to be under suspicion.”
    Plutarch’s ‘The Life of Julius Caesar’
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/07/13/caesars-wife-must-be-above-suspicion/
    M* Snapshot SEQUX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/sequx/quote.html
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    Under the topic of: "Buying, Selling & Pondering" here is what I have been doing along with my thinking.
    At these richly priced stock valuations I'm thinking of selling down more of my equities as they advance upward to new 52 week highs. This strategy is perhaps not for everyone; but, it is one I have followed for a good number of years with good success and one I learned from my late father and follows a buy low sell high theme.
    Currently, my overall asset allocation for my master portfolio is 25% cash, 25% bonds, 30% domestic equity, 15% foreign equity and 5% other assets as of my most recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis. In addition, within equities, I have been overweight the traditional defensive sectors of healthcare, consumer staples, utilities along with communication services and real estate. Combined these sectors account for better than one half of my portfolio's sector weightings and puts them well overweight to their sector weightings found in the S&P 500 Index. Year-to-date my portfolio has performed well with a total return of better than seven percent, 7%, (including cash) plus a little trading activity (buying during pullbacks and then rebalancing after the rebound) has enhanced my portfolio's performance. In addition, since I have stayed invested along my asset allocation guide lines, utlizing some adpative allocation strategies, I have enjoyed the income benefit that my portfolio provides.
    In compairson, the Lipper Balanced Index has returned through the same reporting period 5.1%.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
    Thanks to each of you for sharing your strategies. I always learn a great deal from the wonderful members of this board... thanks so much for the detailed posts... You also help me hold in check some of my animal instincts...
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    @MikeW: " I'm currently pondering investing in Mathews Asia Strategic Income..." MAINX . I still track this one. I think that in spite of itself, it has shown itself to be a good choice. It's limited to Asia, though Morningstar puts it in their World Bond category. David Snowball has written quite positive things about it, too. M* reports 6.8% cash now. Corporates 52%, Gov't stuff is 19%. Convertibles = 19%. .....Foreign bonds are on a tear. My EM bonds are in PREMX, other foreign bonds in PRSNX. Much smaller domestic holding: DLFNX. The only thing I've done lately is to throw a tiny bit more into SFGIX. TRGRX (RE) is doing very well. All of this is wonderful, including DJIA and S & P new highs. But uncle Josh Brown warns:
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/07/12/the-laws-of-capitalism-are-being-rewritten/
    You have some nice performing funds there Crash.
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    @MikeW: " I'm currently pondering investing in Mathews Asia Strategic Income..." MAINX . I still track this one. I think that in spite of itself, it has shown itself to be a good choice. It's limited to Asia, though Morningstar puts it in their World Bond category. David Snowball has written quite positive things about it, too. M* reports 6.8% cash now. Corporates 52%, Gov't stuff is 19%. Convertibles = 19%. .....Foreign bonds are on a tear. My EM bonds are in PREMX, other foreign bonds in PRSNX. Much smaller domestic holding: DLFNX. The only thing I've done lately is to throw a tiny bit more into SFGIX. TRGRX (RE) is doing very well. All of this is wonderful, including DJIA and S & P new highs. But uncle Josh Brown warns:
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/07/12/the-laws-of-capitalism-are-being-rewritten/
  • Funds that distribute qualified dividends
    No, Ted, but the tax rate does differ enough in my opinion to warrant going after qualified dividends in some instances. I'll take the 15% over 25-28 or higher any day.
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    Why does nobody seem to me concerned about interest rate risk these days?
    The new lows in T's, below the old 2012 lows, should spark a little concern at least. Maybe it's the talk about negative sovereign rates elsewhere leading foreign investors to pile in that's mitigating concerns, but I've yet to see convincing statistics that the foreign component of recent buying is that big a factor.
    I haven't done much buying or selling lately, but yesterday sold a fairly large position in one muni cef (up a mind-boggling 14% ytd) and put the $ in PONDX and PTIAX, neither of which involve as much rate risk. I do still own a lot of munis, some of them with plenty of duration, though - just trying to do a little risk balancing in fixed income.
    I sold my longest duration investment grade (BAB and BLV) too early to catch all the recent runup.
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    Bought long treasuries ( TLT ) on Friday near close to hold for 3rd quarter. During neutral / high risk years, favorable bond market setup during 3rd quarters has led to statistically significant positive outcomes. seekingalpha.com/instablog/1109542-market-map/4897108-market-map-allocates-long-bond
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    Under the topic of: "Buying, Selling & Pondering" here is what I have been doing along with my thinking.
    At these richly priced stock valuations I'm thinking of selling down more of my equities as they advance upward to new 52 week highs. This strategy is perhaps not for everyone; but, it is one I have followed for a good number of years with good success and one I learned from my late father and follows a buy low sell high theme.
    Currently, my overall asset allocation for my master portfolio is 25% cash, 25% bonds, 30% domestic equity, 15% foreign equity and 5% other assets as of my most recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis. In addition, within equities, I have been overweight the traditional defensive sectors of healthcare, consumer staples, utilities along with communication services and real estate. Combined these sectors account for better than one half of my portfolio's sector weightings and puts them well overweight to their sector weightings found in the S&P 500 Index. Year-to-date my portfolio has performed well with a total return of better than seven percent, 7%, (including cash) plus a little trading activity (buying during pullbacks and then rebalancing after the rebound) has enhanced my portfolio's performance. In addition, since I have stayed invested along my asset allocation guide lines, utlizing some adpative allocatin strategies, I have enjoyed the income benefit that my portfolio provides.
    In compairson, the Lipper Balanced Index has returned through the same reporting period 5.1%.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
    Good job Old_Skeet.
    And nice post.
    Always good to read your posts.