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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Wednesday was no dead cat bounce says…….
    @stillers agree it doesn’t look very good. And one reason why I use junk bonds instead of equites to play those out of the ordinary up/down volume days. If things don’t improve by the close will exit the junk bond trade VWEHX put on at 5.31 on that big bounce day. Bonds especially shorter term such as BSV SHY are hanging in there today so far anyway,
  • Wednesday was no dead cat bounce says…….
    Nothing against Zweig or the messenger, but...
    With S&P futures DOWN 1.25%, from the link I had previously posted, the Buffoon's Blink Bounce is starting to look more and more like a classic Dead Cat Bounce and Bear Market rally:
    Excerpt:
    Dead Cat Bounce:
    Key Takeaways
    A dead cat bounce is a rally that is unsupported by fundamentals that is reversed by price movement to the downside.
    Check
    In technical analysis, a dead cat bounce is considered to be a continuation pattern.
    Check
    At first, the bounce may appear to be a reversal of the prevailing trend, but it is quickly followed by a continuation of the downward price move.
    Check
    Dead cat bounce patterns are usually only realized after the fact and are difficult to identify in real-time.
    Still TBD fully after more time
    At least, that's how I'm scoring it at home.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p08140338207
    And FWIW, based on that scoring,
    the likelihood based on market history that a Golden Cross is 6-12 months away,
    earnings season will include a lot of pulled guidance, and
    the notion (read, reality?) that nothing other than the announcement of tariff deals, reductions or eliminations CAN move the market meaningfully higher,
    we believe a re-test of the Liberation Day lows is highly likely and we are NOT re-deploying any of our March 31 stock SALE proceeds at this time. We are inside the S&P range at which we may start re-deploying, but we believe better re-entry points are coming.
    That all said, we are getting antsy to start re-deploying via DCA into FSELX, which we SOLD on March 31 and is DOWN 14.3% from that point (and DOWN 25.6% YTD) heading into today's OPEN.
  • China reportedly orders its airlines to halt Boeing jet deliveries amid US trade war
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Carriers also asked to stop purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US firms, report says
    China has reportedly ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets, the latest move in its tit-for-tat trade war with the US. The Chinese government has asked carriers to stop purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from American companies, according to a Bloomberg News article, which cited people familiar with the matter.
    The order was reported to have come after the country raised its retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 125% on Friday in response to Donald Trump’s levies on Chinese imports totaling 145%. Beijing was also said to be considering ways to support airlines that lease Boeing jets and are facing higher costs.
    About 10 Boeing 737 Max jets are being prepared to join Chinese airlines, and if delivery paperwork and payment on some of them were completed before Chinese ”reciprocal” tariffs came into effect, the planes may be allowed to enter the country, sources told Bloomberg.
    The restriction marks a serious blow for Boeing and other manufacturers trying to navigate the escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
    The group chief executive of the budget airline Ryanair, Michael O’Leary, has said his company could delay taking deliveries of Boeing aircraft if they become more expensive. He told the Financial Times that Ryanair was due to receive a further 25 aircraft from Boeing from August but would not need the planes until around March or April 2026. “We might delay them and hope that common sense will prevail,” O’Leary said.
    Shares in Boeing have been buffeted by worries about the impact of trade tariffs, as well as complaints from some shareholders that the company has underinvested in its engineering. The company has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, and in March its chief financial officer, Brian West, said tariffs could hit availability of parts from its suppliers.
    The rival European plane manufacturer Airbus said on Tuesday that it was watching the evolving situation on trade tariffs. Its chief executive, Guillaume Faury, told shareholders the company was having problems receiving components from the American supplier Spirit AeroSystems, which was weighing on the production of its A350 and A220 jetliners.
    Boeing was approached for comment.

    Comment: Boeing has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, with potentially a lot worse to follow. @FD1000 notwithstanding, this would seem to qualify as an investment consideration.
  • China sends back new Boeing jet made too expensive by tariffs
    Following is a current report from The Guardian:
    With estimated $55m price set to balloon by 125%, 737 Max returns to Seattle production hub still wearing the colours of Xiamen Airlines
    A Boeing jet intended for a Chinese airline landed back at the planemaker’s US production hub on Sunday, a victim of the tit-for-tat bilateral tariffs launched by Donald Trump. The 737 MAX, which was meant for China’s Xiamen Airlines, landed at Seattle’s Boeing Field at 6.11pm, according to a Reuters witness. It was painted with Xiamen livery.
    The jet, which made refuelling stops in Guam and Hawaii on its 5,000-mile (8,000-km) return journey, was one of several 737 MAX jets – Boeing’s bestselling model – that had been waiting at Boeing’s Zhoushan completion centre for final work and delivery.Trump this month raised baseline tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. In retaliation, China imposed a 125% tariff on US goods.
    A Chinese airline taking delivery of a Boeing jet could be crippled by the tariffs, given that a new 737 MAX has a market value of around $55m, according to IBA, an aviation consultancy. It was not clear which party made the decision for the aircraft to return to the US. Boeing and Xiamen had not responded to Reuters requests for comment at time of publication.
    Confusion over changing tariffs could leave many aircraft deliveries in limbo, with some airline CEOs saying they would defer delivery of planes rather than pay duties, analysts say.

    Comment: @FD1000 notwithstanding, it is not beyond possibility that if you have an investment in Boeing it might be affected by Trump's idiocy.
  • Relationship Between Consumer Sentiment and Stock Returns
    "Conventional wisdom has long held that the more optimistic consumers are, the better it is for the stock market.
    We decided to put that to the test."

    "What we found is a lot more complicated than some might think.
    That conventional wisdom held true for many years.
    But since Covid struck in 2020, the relationship has reversed: When consumer sentiment has been high,
    stock returns generally have been low, and vice versa."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-complicated-relationship-between-consumer-sentiment-and-stocks/ar-AA1Cmbsj
  • Don’t Buy "Easy Fix" for Stock-Market Craziness
    "With the stock and bond markets stumbling in unison, investment firms and financial advisers
    are pushing so-called alternative funds harder than ever."

    "Many institutional investors, glutted with private assets, are twiddling their thumbs waiting to get their money out. Private-equity firms are sitting on more than 29,000 companies, valued at $3.6 trillion, that they can’t unload. Returns for many alternatives have stagnated. Why buy what these folks are trying to dump?"
    "Over the 10 years through June 30, 2024, the median endowment earned a 6.7% annualized total return net of fees, according to the 2024 NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments. That was far behind the 12.8% annualized total return of the S&P 500 over the same period—and not much better than an ETF with 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, which grew at 5.9% annually."
    "Many of these institutions have privileged access to the world’s best managers of alternative assets—
    yet barely managed to beat out a boring, dirt-cheap ETF."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/don-t-buy-into-this-easy-fix-for-stock-market-craziness/ar-AA1DbLkK
  • Firing Fed chair,,, impact on mutual funds?

    Nothing to laugh about, you guys haven't changed anyone's opinion but you definitely dragged down substantially one of the best investment site by the same people.
    Your irrational, ill-informed political rants have failed to sway public opinion.
    Furthermore, your constant complaining is extremely disruptive and it debases the forum.
    I'm perplexed why you choose to participate in this excellent forum when you often loathe
    the collective wisdom within. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • Firing Fed chair,,, impact on mutual funds?
    Laughing out loud. Started this thread about the possibility of Powell getting terminated by the regime. Added the phrase “ impact on mutual funds” in the title to avoid the purity police. Worked like a charm.
    +1
    Nothing to laugh about, you guys haven't changed anyone's opinion but you definitely dragged down substantially one of the best investment site by the same people.
  • Bond Opportunities?
    Here's the best bond article I read this weekend.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/high-yield-junk-bonds-9ed6141e?mod=search_headline
    Excerpt:
    The higher spreads split investors “into two camps—head for the hills or this is an incredible buying opportunity,” Fridson tells Barron’s. This “could be the most bifurcated decision many investors will ever face.”
    As noted on other threads we "headed for the hills" a coupla years ago.

    Good article.
    It seems to me that caution is warranted and heroics should be avoided in the current environment.
    I mostly use bonds to diversify equity risk.
    Junk bond exposure is via DOXIX and BBBMX which currently hold ~5% of their assets in high-yield bonds.
  • Bond Opportunities?
    Muni Bonds were strongly recommended here:

  • WealthTrack Show
    April 18th Episode:
    Award-winning bond manager Mary Ellen Stanek is finding unusual opportunities in the recent bond market turmoil. She shares what they are and her advice to investors on handling unsettling markets.


  • WealthTrack Show
    April 11th Episode:
    Managing investment risk has never been more important. Award-winning financial advisor Mark Cortazzo shares his strategies for avoiding, transferring and mitigating market risk to avoid permanent losses.


  • Bond Opportunities?
    It all depends on why you hold bonds, someone's goals, style and timing.
    VGIT (simple treasury index) made 3.2% this year. Is it bad? Nope.
    CLOZ made about 12% in 2024 with a nice smooth uptrend. Cat bonds made even more.
    There is only one bond fund that performed according to my style in 2025. But, as long as my indicators show high risk, I'm staying out in MM.
    TR matters a lot more than the income/yield. If something pays you 6% income, but yearly TR=2%, then you made only 2%. Something that pays only 4% and made 4% is a better choice.
  • Bond Opportunities?
    Here's the best bond article I read this weekend.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/high-yield-junk-bonds-9ed6141e?mod=search_headline
    Excerpt:
    The higher spreads split investors “into two camps—head for the hills or this is an incredible buying opportunity,” Fridson tells Barron’s. This “could be the most bifurcated decision many investors will ever face.”
    As noted on other threads we "headed for the hills" a coupla years ago.
  • Future High Energy Demands - The Moon as a Data Center
    Microsoft made a significant statement by entering a twenty-year agreement with Constellation Energy, which plans to reopen the Three Mile Island nuclear plant, the site of the 1979 partial nuclear meltdown. Constellation Energy plans to invest $1.6 billion to refurbish and restart the reactor by 2028 with an estimated 835 MW of capacity. Microsoft entered the agreement to provide the energy demands for its AI data centers.
    and
    There is one problem with this: we cannot continue to scale energy usage like this without making the Earth inhospitable to organic life.
    how about the moon:
    we will in just a few short decades be able to deliver payloads of a self-assembling farm of robots to mine the Moon, create chip fabs, build, and ultimately tile the Moon with GPUs. The Moon has a surface area of 14.6 million square miles, roughly the size of Asia. If we very conservatively tiled even half the Moon with GPUs and solar panels, the Moon could sustain a billion times the compute of the Colossus cluster and, with a few turns of Moore’s law driving chip technology forward, even a trillion times the compute.
    https://palladiummag.com/2025/04/18/the-moon-should-be-a-computer/
  • Oil & Gas Industry
    I still don't own E & P. I am in midstream, with 6.44% of portfolio, currently. And ET just lately bought a huge office building in Houston. Are they outgrowing their current Dallas HQ? It certainly must be a BIG slug of money involved. But the price was not published.
    https://realtynewsreport.com/starwood-sells-41-story-skyscraper-to-energy-firm/
    "...But Energy Transfer is no investor wanting to buy low and sell high in a few years. The Dallas-based energy firm, which operates a 130,000-mile pipeline network crisscrossing the nation, is expected to occupy the 5555 San Felipe building for the long-term..."
    I bought a few additional shares at a recent low of $14.99, and it's back up to $17.27 tonight. It is claimed that market oil prices don't matter, but ET owns a stake in Sunoco, which DOES get affected, directly. The divvy is healthy. During covid, it was cut, but I did not own it then. Oil demand may become range-bound or fall with a trade war. But ET is scrambling to keep up with offers to fuel new AI-connected Data Centers, and the Lake Charles facility now has a green light. (LNG.)
  • Gatsby and U.S. Monetary Policy - (Randall Forsyth Column)
    +1. Yes, I read about that "gimmick." Why not call it what it is? A LIE.
  • Bond Opportunities?
    "But for bond investors, starting yields matter much more than historical returns—and the higher the yield,
    the better. Current yields are higher today than they have been for most of the past 15 years."

    "Investors can capture a 6% yield on a mix of taxable bonds, including preferred stock.
    That could provide a nice compliment to stocks, particularly in tax-advantaged accounts such as 401(k)s
    and individual retirement accounts. ......
    When bond share prices fall, yields rise. In the past, I have chosen to ride it down and reinvest the rising yields. But at 70 now, I think my risk tolerance will not permit such a thing anymore. I've created a cash-ballast sleeve, and moved a bunch into higher quality bonds, rather than Junk. "Time to preserve your portfolio," as quoted by someone else in this thread. :)