"Don't bet against a secular bull market advance!" We're all trained, or brainwashed, if you will, to believe that the next major stock market top is at hand or just around the corner. It completely immobilizes us when it comes to having belief in the major advance at hand. Give us a bit of selling and we'll quickly point out the likely recession and swift stock market drop ahead. Two weeks ago, reigniting inflation was a major concern and the S&P 500 was 5% off its high. Today, we're in all-time high territory after the ACTUAL inflation data said that inflation is NOT a problem. Or we can just be blindfolded and keep tuning into the circus that is CNBC.
Drown out the noise and all the bearish rhetoric, and instead focus on one of my favorite charts. This is a 100-year monthly chart of the S&P 500:....
The next time you think, "is this the start of the next secular bear market?", I want you to remember one thing. There have been TWO starts to secular bear markets in my entire lifetime - the early 1970s and the turn of the century as the dot com bubble popped. That's it. Just stop trying to call the 3rd one. There have only been 14 cyclical bear markets since 1950, which means that, on average, we see only one of these lesser bear markets every 5-6 years. Since 2018, we've had 3 of them (2018, 2020, 2022). That's waaaaay more than our fair share. Let the bulls do their thing.
If you look back above to the 100-year chart, you'll see that the S&P 500's monthly PPO is accelerating to the upside, telling us that long-term bullish momentum just keeps building. Bear markets don't begin until that monthly PPO moves into negative territory.

Look at who are predicting 6500 - 4 of 5 largest market participating banks. That is 6.5% from here. Probably easier to make that much with reasonably comfortable bond funds.
David Giroux’s 5300 is a 14% drop from here. So many members of this forum are invested heavily with David.
Thanks @bee and @stillers.
@bee, @stillers, @WABAC, @rforno, . . .
By how much are you reducing or have you reduced your equity allocation from the 2024 peak level?

”David Giroux’s 5300 is a 14% drop from here. So many members of this forum are invested heavily with David.”

A very quick look shows that
VIX(SP500 SD) < 15
MOVE(treasury SD)=87=low
SP500 is in an uptrend.
I don't need to check beyond that.
My big picture = "normal" market = I'm invested at 99+% for several months now.

but you're invested 99+% in bonds, not the SP500, and in "special" bonds that don't move the way most bond funds move, so your so-called big picture has no real relevancy, as per usual, to your own personal big picture, more or less, give or take.

FRNs can be bought only through an agent, not online.

A very quick look shows that
VIX(SP500 SD) < 15
MOVE(treasury SD)=87=low
SP500 is in an uptrend.
I don't need to check beyond that.
My big picture = "normal" market = I'm invested at 99+% for several months now.

but you're invested 99+% in bonds, not the SP500, and in "special" bonds that don't move the way most bond funds move, so you're so-called big picture has no real relevancy, as per usual, to your own personal big picture, more or less, give or take.