If the press would just continue to beat the drum on "AI" and "Rate cuts", equities can easily move up another 10% this year. The market is bogging down a bit here. Just a pause?
Seems all boats have been lifted. Like Blondie sang, the tide is high.
Getting 5% ain't so bad. Reaching for >10% is more fun....as long as the party lasts. Talk of rate cuts might carry us through 2024 in nice shape.
I keep adding small amounts to PHEFX, while mainly earning ~5% from cash (CDs).

Relentlessly scouring the investible world for something. Bell Canada BCE is way-undervalued, per M* at -24% disc. HQ in Verdun-Montreal. Of course the geniuses at Schwab will not allow div. reinvestment. But the share price has dropped to the point where the yield is 8.5%. The analysis was actually thoughtful and intelligent. Limit order is in.

I'm with you Crash ... following the April swoon (which I missed) there's not much 'on sale' at the moment or that I necessarily want to pay up for. At the moment I'm debating between moving cash into an ETF paying 5% or starting to DCA into positions I want to own in the coming weeks.

No consistent relationship has been found between point-to-point TR and safe-withdrawal-rates (SWR). Dave Ramsey recently fell into this trap.
Bengen-type withdrawals should be seen as benchmarks. Not many use them as described - 4% initial withdrawal with annual COLA. PV does have the capability of withdrawals with or without COLA.
Flexible withdrawal approaches are popular. I have my own - keep withdrawal amounts fixed for 5 years & then reevaluate the portfolio & reset the withdrawals. This can lead to 5-6% withdrawals that often keep rising (at 5-yr intervals).
I have another variation of SWR, called SWRM. It's the max withdrawal rate sustainable that also returns the inflation-adjusted principal at the end. Then, the withdrawal program can be restarted. Obviously, SWRM << SWR.

If one were "back testing a portfolio to forward implement" a retirement Withdrawal Strategy using PV as @yogibullbear has outlined above, what funds would you choose?
We can't count on the same results going forward but the hope is past performance at least rhymes with future performance and we adjust as we go.
Criteria:
ER under 1%
3 Fund Portfolio
4% WD Yearly
Minimum 7% total return on a 3,5,10 and 15 yr basis
No COLA - I prefer the portfolio's yearly balance and 4% WD be the determinant of the dollar amount of the WD
Here are some funds for consideration and comment:
90% + Equity Portfolio (VFINX, FBGRX, PRMTX, FSMEX, PRNHX)
Other Choices:
- I often see these choices as being index funds that capture the market as well as sector funds that attempt to capture the outsized gains of a sector.
aggressive-allocation
70/30 or 80/20 Allocation Funds (PRWCX, TSAIX, looking for more choices )
Other Choices:
- Manager risk can be a larger dynamic with these investments. When these funds get it right they often captures more of the upside while reducing some of the downside risk.
moderately-aggressive-allocation
60/40 or 50/50 Balanced Funds (FBALX, VBINX, VWELX, FPURX, VGSTX, GAOZX, DODBX, RBAIX, RGPAX, VGWAX)
Other Balanced Funds:
- Not all balance fund are created the same. This article separate balance funds into three categories - US-centric, Global, and Diversified
balanced-funds
Other considerations:
Low Draw Down / Low Volatility Funds
- Funds that focus on Bonds, Utilities, Preferred stock might fit in this category.
12-battle-tested-low-volatility-funds
and with ETFs:
7-yield-solution-4-etf-portfolio
(JEPI, NUSI, HNDL, HIPS)
These funds should consistently produce a minimum 7% total return that I'll call The 7% Solution - where a retiree "spends down" (WD 4% yearly) while allowing the remaining 3% to grows the portfolio for future inflation adjusted 4% WDs.

Relentlessly scouring the investible world for something. Bell Canada BCE is way-undervalued, per M* at -24% disc. HQ in Verdun-Montreal. Of course the geniuses at Schwab will not allow div. reinvestment. But the share price has dropped to the point where the yield is 8.5%. The analysis was actually thoughtful and intelligent. Limit order is in.
EDIT TO ADD: And now it's been FILLED. I'm taking the tiny bit left in "Cash" and moving it to my chosen Schwab Money Market acct., at about 5% interest.

the distinction between cost method and lot selection
Exactly. Further, each - cost basis and lot selection - is a distinct legal (accounting) fiction. In reality shares owned are nothing but fungible writings in an electronic ledger. For the tax purpose of computing gain, the IRS offers two different methods of ascribing cost - average and actual. If there is no gain to be calculated for taxes (as is the case for tax-sheltered accounts), then there is no cost basis.
That doesn't preclude investors from thinking about how much money they made in buying and selling shares, regardless of whether they are taxed on cap gains. To facilitate this, brokerages often provide their own tax-sheltered "cost basis" calculations for investors to track gains in their minds. Though not on their 1040s.
To illustrate this dichotomy between tax purposes and investor perceptions, consider income averaging. Say you make $100K in a single year, but the IRS lets you average that income over five years. From your perspective, you made $100K up front; you've got $100K in your pocket. From the IRS perspective, you made $20K that year, and you'll make $20K over each of the next four years. Which is real, $100K all at once or $20K each of five years? You may say the former, since you've got $100K now, but if you're talking taxes, the $20K/year is the "real" interpretation.
Likewise, funds and brokerages have their own rules for calculating holding periods. These rules need not be consistent with each other or with tax rules.
Typically, funds (a) waive short term redemption fees on shares purchased via div reinvestment (including cap gain divs), and (b) apply the redemption fee (e.g. 2%) only to those shares sold within the short-term period as opposed to all shares sold in the transaction.
In contrast to (b), brokerages typically charge a flat short term trading fee if any of the shares sold are subject to the brokerage's short term fee. Fidelity, at least, explicitly waives fees on reinvested divs:

[Fidelity's short-term trading fee] does not apply to ... shares purchased through dividend reinvestment.

https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Brokerage_Commissions_Fee_Schedule.pdf
Finally, to illustrate the difference that ordering rules make, consider the following transactions:
Jan 4 - purchase 100 shares
Nov 25 - purchase 100 shares
Dec 28 - div reinvest - purchase 10 shares
Jan 16 (next year) - sell 110 shares
On a strict FIFO basis, 10 shares (purchased Nov 25) will have been sold within 60 days of purchase. If for the purpose of calculating a short-term redemption fee, reinvested divs are deemed to have been sold first, then the 110 shares sold will be the 10 purchased on Jan 16 and the 100 purchased on Jan 4. No fee will be assessed (assuming no fee is charged for redeeming div reinvestment shares).

There's no cost basis accounting in tax-sheltered vehicles.

You might find the following relevant:
I have a long standing mutual fund holding in my IRA but in March I had some idle cash in the account and I added to that mutual fund, which is subject to a 2% redemption fees if sold within 90 days of purchase.
The fund prospectus says, "In determining whether a redemption fee is applicable to a particular redemption, it is assumed that the redemption is first of shares acquired pursuant to the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains distributions, and next of other shares held by the shareholder for the longest period of time."
I tried to sell shares I bought a few years ago.
Schwab Rep and supervisor are adamant that cost basis method in IRA controls for purpose of applying the 2% redemption fees. They say the March purchase taints the sale because average cost basis is used in that account and thus they have to apply the 2% redemption fees. (The strange part is, their reps are not trained and their system are not designed for their own literature, which correctly says, "Assets using the Average Cost Method will default to the FIFO Lot Selection Method when disposed." We already know the brokerages thoroughly confuse the distinction between cost method and lot selection. If they actually applied the FIFO lot selection as their literature says, there is no redemption fees in my case.)
The above issue is also there at Fidelity. We discussed this in the Fidelity Community in the past year - I go there very rarely these days but anyone active there probably can pull up that discussion. My memory is not good re Fidelity's exact process but they might even just apply average cost basis method (means test the last purchased shares to see if there is a taint) in applying the fund level redemption fees, not withstanding what the customer's selection is. Posters should pay attention to what Fidelity does or read that discussion in Fidelity Community where Fidelity employees participated.
It is interesting how these brokerages' own short term redemption fees ($50) is applied on a FIFO basis but these brokerages use some other method for purposes of applying the fund's redemption fees, irrespective of what the prospectus says. I guess it is easy for them to have a simpler punitive system, rather than customize for each fund. Most customers do not select a cost (or lot) method in retirement accounts and so they are defaulted to a average method. Something to be aware of.
While it is likely differences among funds exist, I have only seen funds apply FIFO.

Withdrawal Studies with Updated PV in 2 Steps
This 2-STEP trick will work with the updated PV. This month is 05/2024 (May), so the free PV will run without issue from 5/1/2014 - 4/30/2024 (the new 10-yr limit). But the PV will also run without limit for start and end dates prior to 5/1/14 (i.e. no limitations on older data beyond the recent 10-yr window; this was found by experimentation with the updated PV). So, the current month provides the unique break point (10 years ago) for these 2 steps.
In this demo, the PV run for Bengen-type 4% withdrawal with annual COLA will be from 1/1/1985 - 4/30/2024 (the maximum possible at PV) in 2 steps.
STEP 1, PV Run 1/1/1985 - 4/30/2014 (dates beyond recent 10 years)
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3qDAqcuhRZT8zHPzoUQlPT
Initial Principal Amount $100,000, initial Monthly Withdrawal $333 (= 4,000/12 rounded).
A limitation of PV is that these inputs must be integers; to reduce the effect of rounding errors, $100,000 initial was used instead of the default $10,000. 3 funds used were VWELX, FPURX, DODBX and 1 benchmark used was VFINX.
STEP 2, PV Run 5/1/2014 - 4/30/2024 (recent 10 years), with VWELX only (asset % for FPURX and DODBX were cleared to avoid confusion). To start the 2nd PV run, use the VWELX balance and Monthly Withdrawal on 4/31/2014.
“Initial” Principal Amount $1,264,742, “initial” Monthly Withdrawal $745 (=$2,979/4 rounded; this is the payment for 4 months in 2014 divided by 4).
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=6Hbd9noxhDMxTtlIuqR4ns
On 4/30/2024, Final Balance $2,530,484, Monthly payment $978 (=$3,911/4 rounded; payment for 4 months in 2024 divided by 4).
Step 2 can be repeated for FPURX (Step 3), DODBX (Step 4), VFINX (Step 5).
This is more complicated and tricky than the old single-step PV runs. One can subscribe to PV to still have that capacity.
LINK

Per CNBC:
Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Donald Trump’s Truth Social network, reported a net loss of $327.6 million, with total revenue at $770,500 in its first fiscal quarter.
< - >
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/trump-media-djt-q1-2024-earnings.html
.. I found the key bullet points of their earnings press release pathetically amusing, too. Sounds like they're desperate for some positive talking points....
~ Completed the Business Combination with Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DJT), Successfully Debuted as Public Company, and Now Has Over 621,000 Retail Shareholders. ~
~ Commenced Trading on Nasdaq, Under Symbol DJT on March 26, 2024 ~
~ Company Has Sufficient Working Capital as a Result of a Going Public Event ~
~ Signs First Contracts for Deployment of its TV Streaming Platform ~

BCAT a tactical-allocation term-structure CEF (liquidation 9/25/32) that was trading at 11% discount. Probably a big change in discount.

Bloomberg is reporting that Gruenberg has announced he intends to resign after a successor has been selected. The linked CNN Article was written before he made the announcement. OMG - the last place I’d expect to see infected with politics, in-fighting and alleged sexual harassment.

Well, it's a pretty sure thing that Amazon boosts their price by at least 5% to cover the cost of the 5% that they "give" back if you use their card, and keep if you don't use their card. Somebody's got to pay for Jeff Bezos' new yacht, spaceships, and other good stuff!

Wonder if the 5% monthly credit can be applied to one's month payment at Chase. Never dawn on me that Amazon would disqualify a 5% cash back on purchases that applied the 5% earned credit. Sound like a class action suit in the making.
Thanks for sharing this frugality @Old_Joe.

OK, both Amazon and Chase keep track of your points. You can convert to cash at Chase, or use for additional "new" purchases at Amazon. But if you use them at Amazon, you don't get an additional 5% worth of points. Amazon obviously hopes that you'll spend the points there, as they keep reminding you that a new purchase could be "free" if you use those points.
Since we have a checking account at Chase, it's very easy to transfer the Amazon CC points as cash to the checking account. But if you didn't have a Chase bank account, I guess that you would almost have to spend those points at Amazon. I dunno about that, though.

“you don't get the 5% back if you use the points on a new Prime purchase”
Huh? What would constitute an “old Prime purchase”?

FWIW, the Amazon Prime/Chase CC gets you 5% in points back on Amazon purchases, and 2% on many other non-Amazon purchases.
The points are redeemable at Amazon or for cash from Chase. I always take the cash at Chase and never redeem at Amazon because you don't get the 5% back if you use the points on a new Prime purchase.

Really interesting discussion. I’m swayed by a tough experience in the early 90s where I ended up with way too much credit card / revolving debt. ISTM the bottom was reached sometime after I received a CC that had some type of cash-back incentive. Anyhow, I stopped using credit cards, paid off all that debt over a year or two and then tackled paying off motor vehicle loans. Eventually I began to save. I’m sure that’s an often-told tale.
That’s when I began living on a written budget, updated once a year. Major expenses like travel, health care deductibles, taxes, new furniture, home maintenance, auto maintenance, etc. are pre-funded with monthly deposits into a bank or money market fund. Those lend themselves to being paid by credit card (which I often do), since every purchase is recorded and the “books need to balance” at year’s end. I believe Elan provides cash back for hotels. Not sure what else.
Where I have a problem using a credit card is for the “incidental / discretionary” items like food, beverage, media subscriptions, motor fuel, and odds & ends. These are paid with what I consider “pocket money”. It’s the balance in the checking account remaining after making the monthly deposit to cover pre-funded (major) expenses. It’s self regulating. Once the checking account falls to near 0, it’s time to stop spending. Since I receive SS mid-month and a pension payment around month’s end, it works well.
True, the budget process could be reworked, I suppose, to put more of those “pocket” expenses into the pre-funded camp. One problem is that it’s difficult to set up a one year budget with items that are likely to change during the next 12 months (adding or cancelling newspaper subscriptions for example).
It remains my belief that most of us mere mortals tend to spend more on incidental items (especially food, beverage, attire)) when shopping with a credit card than with cash. So if my total at the checkout is 5% higher due to the cash back incentive I’m trying to garner reap and the credit card gives me back 2% of what I spent there at the end of the month … am I coming out ahead?
Do Consumers Tend to Spend More With A Credit Card?

I searched for credit cards with good overall cash-back policies and minimal hassles.
I didn't want to play games with rotating categories, travel rewards, or some other BS.
Show me the money!
My experience with PenFed credit cards is that their points are worth less than $0.01 when redeemed for cash back or statement credit. So, the 5x points for gas and 3x points for supermarkets isn’t quite equal to 5% and 3%.
There are two different matters here - how you earn rewards (flat rate, special fixed categories, rotating categories) and how you redeem them (cash, miles, unrestricted bill credit, restricted bill credit).
On the earning side, rotating categories are the most nuisance to deal with. Even here, one can get some benefit by using a card for bills you pay automatically, like a gym or a cable/streaming service. When a rotating category card starts giving more rewards for a category, change your autobilling for services in that category to use the card. Change your autobilling back at the end of the three month rotation period. You don't have to think about categories any other time.
Fixed categories like PenFed's Platinum Rewards card (gas, supermarkets) let you avoid the hassle of dealing with continually changing categories. You can mimic this effect with Citibank Custom Cash by selecting a single category for which to use the card. Though with fixed categories you still need to remember which card you have dedicated for which category.
Truly minimal hassle means fixed rate bonus, no limit, no expiration.
On the redemption side, anything other than cash back (cash or statement credit) or actual frequent flier miles reduces redemption value. If you've got $30 in value that you redeem for a gift card (unless at a discounted price) you'll get $30 of purchasing power in the gift card, but you'll lose the opportunity to earn more cash back when you spend that $30. You'll be using the gift card and not your credit card.
Then there are redemptions that are worth less than a penny per point. This is a problem with PenFed's Platinum Rewards and even with Fidelity's credit card (if not redeemed into a Fidelity account). It is not a problem with Pen Fed's Cash Rewards card (flat 2% if you have a free Penn Fed checking account).
Some cards let you get statement credits for full value, but restrict how much you can redeem. This is often tied to travel. Capital One Venture miles can be redeemed for credit against past travel expenses (or for cash at a reduced redemption rate); BofA's travel card restricts mile redemptions to credits for past travel. If you do any traveling this is merely a hassle. If you have no travel expenses at all, this is a major impediment.
Each person's tolerance for pain (hassle) and each person's spending pattern are different. I'm okay with rotating categories, but only for supplemental cards. I keep it relatively simple by using a primary card that credits me with dollars, flat rate rewards, and no redemption restrictions. Secondary is a fixed category card. Tertiary are rotating category cards, if I remember what the categories du jour are.

@yogibearbull, I follow. Hmmm
You can start and end before 2015... up to ten years
You can start and end after 2015... up to today's date (almost 10 years)
But you can not start before 2015 and end after 2015 without PV shortening your inputs dates.
Hopefully they'll be a fix coming.

@bee, now try to run 10 years to 2020, i.e. 2010-2020 (i.e. 1/1/2010-12/30/2020 under Year-to-year), but you can not. The result is truncated to 1/1/2015-12/31/2020 (well under 10 years). Then see my post just before yours - my guess is that your 10-year test periods were all pre-mid-2014 except the full 2014/2015-2024.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1F7QzYmcVWRuBv5WmY6L5B