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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PRWCX performance YTD
    Don't look now but a utilities fund I follow (UTG) is up 6.5% over the last 3 weeks. Hopefully Giroux is on to something.
    They started doing well shortly after Buffet said he wanted no more to do with them. That's the way it seems to me anyway. :)
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    If I had turned down all but 4-5% of the most attractive investments (or dates) in my lifetime I would have no nest egg today and I’d still be trolling dating sites instead of being married for 58 years. Sometimes it pays to accept some risk and the reality that some bets don’t pay off. The joke seems to be on the person who thinks he/she is as attractive as the top 5% of the datable market.
  • MFO Premium Multisearch, 5/9/24
    This morning, Multisearch isn't working and ends with the following message:
    "This site can’t be reachedwww.member.mfopremium.comhttps took too long to respond.
    Try:
    Checking the connection
    Checking the proxy and the firewall
    Running Windows Network Diagnostics
    ERR_CONNECTION_TIMED_OUT"
    Other features seem to be working fine.
  • BRUFX vs. WBALX
    If I’m reading M* correctly, BRUFX is holding over 30% in cash while WBALX holds only around 8%. However, WBALX is quite heavily invested in bonds of varying maturities. Those bond holdings are substantial enough to lower WBALX’s overall equity weighting (44%) to below that of BRUFX (65%). Difference in longer term risk profile (assuming competent managers) IMHO doesn’t amount to ”a hill of beans” as grandma used to say. And @msf is spot-on here.
  • BRUFX vs. WBALX
    Is it working for you? When did you switch?
    If it was on Dec 29 (Dec 30, 31 was a weekend), then yes, it is working for you.
    If it was 6 months ago, then you're behind, +7.33% vs. 10.67%.
    If it was 3 months ago, then you're behind, +1.13% vs. +2.27%.
    If it was 2 months ago, then you're behind, -0.58% vs. +1.17%.
    If it was 1 month ago, then you're behind, -0.58% vs. +0.03%.
    1 month, 2 month, 3 month, 6 month data from M* chart comparisons as of 5/8/24 close. You wrote about switching two months ago, here and here.
    IMHO it is silly to look at such short time frames. Also with just a 7 basis point "win" YTD, WBALX could easily drop behind in a single day. Talk about short term!
    Not intending to burst your bubble, just suggesting that switches don't prove themselves out one way or the other with short term performance unless you are a frenetic trader. Give it time.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/8/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/8/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (40.8%, above average) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (23.8%, below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (35.4%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +17.0% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (115+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (30+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil up, gold flat, dollar down. Major indexes rose above 50-dMA. Poor seasonality May 1 - Oct 30. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1466/thread
  • Placing in this category for broad member view. SBA Covid relief loan fraud notification. UPDATE !!!
    Before doing anything, you might first consider checking your credit reports from all 3 agencies. (You could get those free here: https://www.annualcreditreport.com)
    Hopefully, you will not see anything alarming and the entire incident would turn out to be a nasty hoax.
    However,
    If there was indeed a personal loan taken out in your name, you would see the details on the report, and would have the relevant information to contact SBA; or
    If the loan was taken in your name on a business, you would at least see an SBA inquiry on the report, and again would have something concrete to contact SBA with.
    In either case, doing a credit freeze as Old_Joe suggested would seem like a good idea then, until you have a chance to sort things out with SBA.
    Finally, it would have been difficult for and, likely, not the goal of anyone to collateralize this loan - assuming it was actually made. If so, I believe the amount would be $14K personal / $25K business at the most, so it is unlikely to be a six or seven figure loan and should be relatively easier to clear up. (I could not find the SBA link for this, so here is one from the lending site.)
    Hope this helps.
  • Best Fund Managers?
    Is Clare Hart one of the best fund managers?
    Dunno but she recently received the 2024 US Morningstar Outstanding Portfolio Manager Award.
    "Morningstar Manager Research analysts chose Hart from a list of three nominees who have run investment strategies that earn Morningstar Medalist Ratings of Gold or Silver on at least one vehicle or share class. They each had long, impressive track records, disciplined but adaptable philosophies and processes, and a proven record of putting investors’ interests first. Hart’s faithful and consistent application of a tried and true approach won the day, though."
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/morningstars-2024-us-morningstar-outstanding-portfolio-manager-award-winner
    Portfolio Visualizer Backtest - OIEIX During Clare Hart's Tenure
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=5CfKNvVlpd8TKApToYqYLi
  • BRUFX vs. WBALX
    BRUFX is "Moderately Aggressive." (M*). +2.59% YTD in 96th percentile in category.
    WBALX is "Moderately Conservative." +2.66% YTD in 29th percentile, compared to peers.
    The switch is so far, working in our favor! :)
  • Dave Giroux TCAF ETF : Attracting assets?
    TCAF had net assets of $1.4b as of 05/07/2024 according to the TRP website.
    Also, Russel Kinnel¹ recently bought TCAF and VYM.
    These are the only two ETFs he owns.
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/2-great-large-cap-etfs
    ¹ Russel Kinnel is director of ratings, manager research, for Morningstar Research Services LLC.
    _He is also the editor of Morningstar FundInvestor.
  • One Out of Every 24 NYC Residents is Now a Millionaire - Bloomberg
    @hank - "a $12.50 can of Bud" ??? !!!
    It was a 24-ounce can @Old_Joe. So … that would be like $6.25 a can for couple 12 ouncers. Prices in the area around the theater district are very high..
  • "Our service is terrible but we'll charge you $100 to transfer your account."
    Recently, AARP did a study of the largest fund families in 1989 and in March 2024.
    Vanguard was at #5 with less than $50B in assets in 1989 and now is #1 with $8T in assets (grew 160 times).
    Currently, in #2 position is ishares + BlackRock at $3T. BlackRock was also #2 in 1989 with $97B.
    Both Fidelity and BlackRock grew from $97B in 1989 to $3T in 2024.
    (Those with AARP membership probably can access that study if you are curious about it.)
    When the #1 firm is 2.6 times the size of the #2 firm and it reached those heights by grossly undercutting competition on price, there is bound to be collateral effects. So, now Vanguard is looking to shed all the smaller clients. I do not know what their end goal is but the transition is bound to be bumpy.
    As part of their transition, they are divesting their small business retirement accounts / plans.
    https://www.ascensus.com/about-us/press-room/news/ascensus-to-acquire-vanguard-individual-401-k-multi-sep-and-simple-ira-plans/
    So, that is a clue for those with small Vanguard fund investment, even if you have a large brokerage account with them. I have owned Vanguard ETFs outside Vanguard because of their service quality and a brokerage platform that is subpar. It will be interesting to see what the post-transition Vanguard will look like.
  • One Out of Every 24 NYC Residents is Now a Millionaire - Bloomberg
    How far does $1M go in to NYC (Manhattan)? Not very. A $50K salary elsewhere would need to be $150K in NYC. Use this Calculator (linked below) to compare costs to where you live now.
    cost-of-living/index
    Doesn't that figure really depend on where "elsewhere" is? Even Boise, Idaho would cost over 25% more than your base $50K, using the CNN calculator.
    And for that matter it also matters where "here" is - Manhattan's population is less than 20% of NYC's; Manhattan's land area is under 8% of NYC's.
    According to the same calculator, one would need "only" $87K to live in Queens (another part of NYC) - where 40% more people live than in Manhattan. While that's far from inexpensive, it helps to look at where "real" people live. Queens has the reputation of being NYC's bedroom borough.

    Also welcome to extremes..some have...many have not. 25% are millionaire and 20% are below the poverty line.
    ...
    cost-of-living-calculator/city-life/new-york-manhattan-ny
    This NerdWallet site is similarly confused about NYC. The URL and the drop down city selector say "Manhattan", and its top line figure, "median salary in New York (Manhattan), NY is:$51,270. Yet in the detail data, it gives the population as 8M (all of NYC) and the average salary per person as $31,417. Hard to tell what "average" means, though I'm guessing it is calculated across the whole city, not just the 1/5 of people living in Manhattan.
    Here are some "alternative facts". Directly from the US Census Bureau, the per capita income in NYC (8M people) is $48,066. Since not everyone works, that makes the mean (not median) salary higher than $48K. Another page (SmartAsset) claims that "According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, the average individual income in New York City is $107,000."
    The level of poverty in NYC is not good, though it is lower than cities such as Detroit, Laredo, Cincinnati, Memphis, Baton Rouge (all above 25%), Richmond, Miami, Tuscon, Atlanta, Dallas, Columbus (all above 20%). The whole country needs to do better.
    100 largest US cities ranked by poverty level (sourced from US Census Bureau)
    US metro areas w/highest and lowest poverty rates - Madison Trust Co. analysis of Census Bureau data - percentage of households w/income under $35K (noting that HHS defines poverty line as $30K income).
    That last source gives Albany, GA as the 6th poorest metropolitan area. I mention this because that is the baseline area used by CNN/Money (see above) for how far $50K would go in other areas.
    Well, NY has about 4% millionaires, but it is still behind Tel Aviv which has about 10%.
    https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/economy/1663172527-israel-nearly-1-in-10-tel-aviv-residents-is-a-millionaire-study
    FD makes a different apples-to-oranges error. Consistent source (Henley and Partners) cited, but different years. The i24 News piece references the 2022 study which reported 42,400 millionaires in Tel Aviv (detailed data is in Middle East top 5), while the current study reports "only" 24,300. Over a 40% decline.
    https://www.henleyglobal.com/publications/wealthiest-cities-2024
  • One Out of Every 24 NYC Residents is Now a Millionaire - Bloomberg
    80K $12.50 beers could last a very long time.
    But seriously, my 1200 sq ft house in western Washington is zillowed at $650K. The house I grew up in the Mississippi Delta, a bit larger, of similar age and condition, is zillowed at $16K. Since I own my house outright, I could sell it and move "home" and be half-way to being a millionaire before you factor in my pensions, SS, and savings. Indeed, a moderately middle-class existence could, overnight, be converted to privileged just by a move to the land of my origins.
  • Best Fund Managers?
    The most important is the total performance and for many the risk-adjusted performance. I can generate an income very easily.
    Suppose you are at Fidelity and you have one million invested in FXAIX(SP500). You can set up in 2 minutes a monthly sell order, on a certain date, for $3K(or another amount) to go on for months-years until you stop it. You just created an income monthly stream.
    Basically, a fund that generates double the income of the SP500 but lags by 1% annually is still inferior. It is just a math exercise that the income crowd refuses to admit.
    Income VS TR(total return) is one of the oldest discussions that have led the income crowd to miss a lot of performance since 2010.
    I'm not against income, I'm against people who go blindly after income.
    ==========
    While a low expense ratio is desirable, there are plenty of exceptions.
    PRWCX in the last several decades.
    PIMIX from 2010 to 2018.
  • MINT etf versus CD's versus MMK'Ts
    New MM rules coming later this year. I think these were covered in the forum before. Article does not appear to be behind paywall as I was able to read - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-08/money-funds-start-shuffling-assets-ahead-of-sec-rule-changes
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    Thanks @catch22. - A nice hour + drive north when I worked in the Detroit metro area, Also known for a huge Christmas decoration store open 12-months. Remember a pleasant river cruise once on a stern-wheeler. Chicken dinners of course … Not far from the fertile Saginaw Valley agricultural area. So them chickens ought to be plenty fresh.
    Excerpt is from Franklin Insurance’s webpage. Do your own due diligence if considering:
    Headquartered in Frankenmuth, Michigan, and doing business in 15 states, Frankenmuth Insurance is financially sound, with $1.8 billion in assets. The company has an A.M. Best rating of “A” (Excellent).