From a current report in The Guardian:

Donald Trump suffered a humiliating setback on Thursday when Republicans in Congress failed to pass a pared-down spending bill – just one day before a potential government shutdown that could disrupt Christmas travel.
By a vote of 174-235, the House of Representatives rejected the Trump-backed package, hastily assembled by Republican leaders after the president-elect and his billionaire ally Elon Musk scuttled a prior bipartisan deal.
Critics described the breakdown as an early glimpse of the chaos to come when Trump returns to the White House on 20 January. Musk’s intervention via a volley of tweets on his social media platform X was mocked by Democrats as the work of “President Musk”.
“The Musk-Johnson proposal is not serious,” Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, told reporters. “It’s laughable. Extreme Maga Republicans are driving us to a government shutdown.”
Despite Trump’s support, 38 Republicans voted against the new package along with nearly every Democrat, ensuring that it failed to reach the two-thirds threshold needed for passage and leaving the next steps uncertain.
The defiance from within Trump’s own party caught many by surprise.

Sold TRTY. Split the proceeds between LVHI & AOK. Each 8.5% of portfolio.

Making correction to my earlier posting.
Better: ARTKX -6.3%, FMIJX -3.8%, FPACX -2.3%, CGBL 2.5%, RSIIX +0.0%
Worse: BND -1.8%
This is more like a thought exercise. A 10 days performance varies quite a bit. However, I like to compare each fund/ETF to their benchmarks for the year. Additionally, tracking the fund’s ups and downs provide insights on its volatility.
RSIIX, for example, is the least volatile of all my bond funds and yet the YTD return as of 12/13/24 is 7.9%. Although BND is a broadly diversified bond index fund, its volatility is due its sensitivity to interest rates.

Here is more details from the funding bill mess. Quote from the article.

Musk didn’t seem to think a government shutdown would have significant consequences for the country. He responded “YES” to a post that read, “Just close down the govt until January 20th. Defund everything. We will be fine for 33 days.” Another Musk post said a shutdown “doesn’t actually shut down critical functions.”
But while essential functions would continue during a shutdown, there are significant real-world effects: Other government employees will halt their day-to-day work and miss paychecks. While Social Security checks will go out and mail will be delivered, agency shutdowns cause massive lost productivity. A five-week shutdown from 2018 to 2019 caused the economy to lose about $3 billion, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.

https://politico.com/news/2024/12/18/elon-musk-false-claims-cr-00195252
Glad that I sold a good chuck of tech stocks in November this year.

List the fund/etf you thought did better than you would expect and worse than you would expect.
Please don't compare it to a benchmark thats too easy. Just personal opinion. Some managers consistently outperform benchmarks.
Better: BALFX -2.07%, PRCFX -2.07%
Worse: GQHPX -5.94%, SCHD -5.59%, LCORX -4.91%, FMSDX -4.02%

AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/18/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (40.7%, above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (27.9%, below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (31.4%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +9.3% (above average). Investor concerns: Budget, debt, inflation, the Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (147+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (62+ weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil down, gold down, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 26.0% (oversold). Fed cut the fed fund rate to 4.25-4.50%. Government shutdown looms as the budget deal collapsed in DC. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1781/thread

Here is the active link above.
https://irs.gov/newsroom/401k-limit-increases-to-23500-for-2025-ira-limit-remains-7000
Another way to get additional saving is through their employer’s matching contributions, often at 4% or more of their salary. There are exceptions that not all employers provide matching and the $ amount varies. If you are the fortunate ones that matching is available, so much the better with this “free money” for your retirement funds. Compounded growth of retirement do wonder when you start early in your career.

There is a new memecoins, Fartcoin, that I got to get some….
https://nbcnews.com/business/personal-finance/memecoins-what-are-they-why-are-they-popular-cryptocurrency-rcna184223
We have been swapping more SPY for short term high yield bond funds since early November. Stock % is now lowered than those % of bonds and cash. High valuation is a headwind going into 2025 while there are ample unknowns.

We are likely to revisit a government shutdown as the one during his first term in 2018-2019. Can’t believe that Johnson is bending to his demands and he has not even swore in until January 20, 2025.

From Kathy Jones, head of Fixed Income at Schwab..."Fed Cuts Interest Rate, Projects Fewer Cuts Ahead"
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting?hss_meta=eyJvcmdhbml6YXRpb25faWQiOiA3NDYsICJncm91cF9pZCI6IDgzMzQ2MSwgImFzc2V0X2lkIjogMTkxMDYxMywgImdyb3VwX2NvbnRlbnRfaWQiOiAxNDAwNTQ5NjYsICJncm91cF9uZXR3b3JrX2NvbnRlbnRfaWQiOiAyMTI2ODQ3MzF9

Pain level here, from 1 to 10. = 1.5

Notes by YBB
(My PC decided to have an update around 1:00 PM, so the posting of some FOMC Statement links via phone had an incorrect date. This was corrected where possible.)
Rates: Fed funds cut 25 bps to 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate to 4.40%, discount rate to 4.50%. Treasury QT continues at -$25 billion/mo, MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo.
Powell gave a long explanation to why the rate was cut today & why the pace of cuts may be slower in 2025 (maybe 2 cuts). We are closure to the neutral rate (an unknown) but it’s different for the short- & long- term. If necessary, rates may even go up but that seems unlikely now.
Inflation is sticky in the 2.50-3.00% range due to housing (via OERs) & insurance (delayed catchup), but it may be +2.5% in 2025, +2% by 2027. The Fed’s targets apply to the headline PCE, but core PCE is better for the Fed policy.
Tariffs’ & counter-tariffs’ impacts will be evaluated when they come. The expectation is that their inflationary effects will be one-time. There was a Fed study on tariffs in 2018 & that will be updated.
Mortgage & other longer term rates haven’t come down because those are affected by several other factors.
Labor market has cooled, unemployment rate is 4.2%, labor turnover is low. The public is unhappy with high prices, but lower inflation doesn’t mean lower prices. At some point, with wage growth remaining above the inflation rate, the public sentiment may turnaround. Further cooling in labor isn’t expected to make further progress on inflation.
Geopolitical risks are high but their impact on the US economy would be via the oil prices that have been weak.
There was a question about the level of the stick market, but Powell ignored it (markets fell sharply). He said that 2024 has turned out to be a good year contrary to the earlier projections and 2025 should also be good.
LINK

The FED lowers the rate by 25 bps (0.25%). The market fell…

Down is up, up is down, Bad News is Good News, Good News is Bad News.
Either that or Y-E selling has started really eagerly given the runup in recent weeks....

The FED lowers the rate by 25 bps (0.25%). The market fell…
Sticky inflation that refuses to drop to 2% target which is artificial anyway.

Super Catchup for 401k/403b from 2025
Another Secure 2.0 provision for catchups for 401k, 403b, government 457 and federal TSP kicks in 2025.
For 55+ $7,500
For 60-63 $11,250 (higher of $10,000 and 150% of regular catchup)
SIMPLE retirement plan catchups are also adjusted: 55+ $3,500, 60-63 $5,250.
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/401k-limit-increases-to-23500-for-2025-ira-limit-remains-7000

CME FedWatch shows 97.1% chance of 25 bps cut based on fed funds trading.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Lots of articles coming out about a very small rate cut in December, but possibly more of a flat environment in 2025. Floating Rate Bond OEFs tend to do well in a relatively flat environment, so it is a category to keep an eye on. I am a retired fixed income investor, so I will be watching very conservative bond oefs, including conservative FR/BL bond OEFs.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811030/000089418924007309/ottercreekottrx497ereducem.htm
97 1 ottercreekottrx497ereducem.htm 497
Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
File Nos. 033-12213; 811-05037
Otter Creek Long/Short Opportunity Fund
(the “Fund”)
Institutional Class – Ticker: OTTRX
Supplement dated December 17, 2024 to the Statutory Prospectus dated February 28, 2024
Effective immediately, the initial minimum investment amount for Institutional Class shares of the Otter Creek Long/Short Opportunity Fund is reduced to $2,500.
Please retain this supplement with your
Statutory Prospectus for future reference
********Initial minimum was $100K********

The -4.7% decline Monday was due to a $1.4519 dividend distribution.

MMF - checking at local bank,BMO, dropped for the second time in three months. Rate went from 2.?? -1.745 1.547.
Time to move RMD , which went there by my error!