Worth a watch - BREFX fund manager
top-ranked-real-estate-fund-manager-jeff-kolitch-on-opportunities-in-commercial-real-estate/

I did watch it. That fund has a yield of 0.05%. Not enough for me to be interested.

WZRD didn't lose money this past month, stayed flattish. Low volume on many days, as it is new.

Well since it's pretty much still only holding cash or cash-like stuff, that would make sense....

WZRD managed to gain +.58% yesterday, so maybe it day trades a bit? Or relies on options?

Maybe just the normal fluctuations in the money funds/positions it holds?

WZRD didn't lose money this past month, stayed flattish. Low volume on many days, as it is new.

Well since it's pretty much still only holding cash or cash-like stuff, that would make sense....

WZRD managed to gain +.58% yesterday, so maybe it day trades a bit? Or relies on options?

From an investment standpoint there is a growing and sometimes lucrative market for litigation funding. While currently restricted to accredited investors, this article explains how average retail investors can also get a piece of the pie.
“Non-accredited litigation finance investors - Even if you’re a mere peasant like 90% of the country, you can still put your humble earnings towards litigation finance …”
- ”Yieldstreet offers a variety of equity deals and asset-backed debt investments, from real estate investment loans to fine art. The fund is open to non-accredited investors with a minimum investment of $500, part of which is invested in litigation financing.”
- “The key to non-accredited litigation finance might lie in the blockchain. Ryval, co-founded by attorney Kyle Roche of Roche Freedman, aims to be the “stock market of litigation finance” and open new ways for investors of all levels to back plaintiffs in cases that capture their interests or hearts. While the Ryval market has yet to open, one of Roche’s clients provided a test case for an initial litigation offering (ILO). Apothio, a California hemp growing company, crowdfunded its suit against the Kern County Sherriff’s Department and raised almost $350,000 between October 2021 and March 2022. “
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Thanks for the head-up guys. Just checked and my combined home & auto insurance is up since ‘23 by several hundred dollars per year. I have the premiums (same company) pulled from checking in monthly installments and sometimes I’m a bit behind the curve updating my paperwork - although I’m sure due notice was received.
Has anybody mentioned labor costs / labor shortages as a cause of rising auto repair costs? Body shops are very labor intensive. If we curtail immigration, be prepared for even higher labor costs.
Another point - I don’t know how it is where you live … But here the average size of what folks are driving has really gone up a lot over the past decade or two. While I normally drive the newer Accord, I’m always amazed how small my 2005 full-sized Silverado appears nowadays sitting in a crowded parking lot. At one time it would tower above most other vehicles - but no more! And more sheet metal & trim and larger tires & wheels means more (and more expensive) stuff to fix, as well as greater damage sustained by whatever else it happens to strike.

@Old_Joe
Our umbrella, $1 mil policy for this policy period (May, 2024 - May, 2025) is $386.
As with all insurance, everything varies by location and values protected.
ADD: A few notes for our insurance protected period noted above.
--- Our home policy has an inflation clause covering several areas aside from the total replacement. The covered amount increased by 6.95%, BUT the premium amount increased by 13.9%
--- Our auto policy coverage remained the same, BUT the premium increased by 8.3%.
--- Our umbrella policy increased by 9.97% for the same $ million coverage.
We know about some areas of the country where insurance companies will no longer insure homes...CA and FL, and likely other areas. The fall back is state backed insurance. So, things become crazy for some with insurance.
Auto insurance being the same story for some other reasons. I know an auto body shop owner who deals with insurance claims for most of his work. Generally, quite a few cars are considered 'totaled' from increased labor and parts increases. An example is decent, low mileage 2018 Chevy Impala: the vehicle has a low speed rear end of a vehicle in front, but enough to trigger the air bags, and crumple the front end of the car. Nominal prices for air bags (parts and labor) may be $1,500 each. There are 10 air bags in this model. The does not count the interior damage, not repairs to the front of the car. Locally, a low mileage 2018 Impala LTZ is $22K + tax. The repair may already be at $15K for air bags and interior repairs; not including front end repair. The insurance company issues a 'totaled' vehicle status, as the repair is not worth cost of replacement or cash pay off to the owner.

Following is a reproduction of the insurance-related posts from "The Week In Charts" thread.

Rbrt - April 18
From the blog:Transportation costs remain stubbornly high (+10.7% over last year), with skyrocketing auto insurance rates being a major contributing factor. The 22% increase over the last year is the biggest 1-year spike since 1976.
Insurance inflation is crazy. I need to pay attention more. Thanks.

BaluBalu - April 18
I thought 20+% auto insurance increase is absurd until I received my home insurance renewal notice with a 55% increase in premium. Never made any claims and live in an urban area. I called the insurance company to increase my deductible. For increasing the deductible by $2,500, premium decreases by $80. The insurance co.’s reasoning for increasing the premium by 55% is climate change and increase in material and labor costs. That is the same excuse they used the last two years for increasing it by more than 20% each year.
KIE, the insurance ETF has a TR of 32% over the last 3 years. Over the three year period, my home insurance premium more than doubled. How to better protect against increasing insurance premiums?

Derf - April 19
@BaluBalu ; Time to look elsewhere for insurance FWIW ! Do you have Erie in your neck of the woods ?

MikeM -April 19
@BaluBalu, I just moved my State Farm policies, 2 cars and my HO. I was with them for 10 years which really is a big mistake in the insurance game. Went to an independent broker a friend recommended who deals with several companies. Ended up saving ~$1000/year. Used some of that savings to buy a $1million umbrella policy which I've been meaning to buy for a while. Bottom line, staying faithful to an insurance company will cost you a lot of money.
Erie is a very good option. I got the best price with NYCM, which is only available in NY state I believe

Old_Joe -April 19
Thinking that there's somewhere to hide in the ongoing insurance disaster is very wishful thinking. Plain and simple: the major risk factors have increased to the point where the old models no longer work.
The basic concept of insurance is that any specific loss situation will be confined to relatively few claimants, covered by affordable premium income from the larger insured community, with room for profit left over.
When entire large contiguous communities are at risk because of one single loss situation (especially weather or fire related) that model simply doesn't work.
The reality is that the insurance model as we have known it is disappearing piece-by-piece, and no major financial or government entity has yet advanced a sustainable replacement model. California and Florida are your coal-mine canaries.

BaluBalu - April 19
Thanks for the replies. I hope I am not ruining this thread with comments not directly related to the OP.
There is a lot of BS practiced by insurance companies' leadership. Most of us understand what risk assumption and risk diversification means.
In my small town, I have not seen a single fire in the 14 years I have been here. We have two fire stations for a 4 sq miles town and I have not seen a fire truck on the roads in years. (I see them when I drive by the fire station.) But I pay in increased premiums for the fire hazards caused by PG&E (wild fires!) and others in places with big, old trees and overhanging power lines. My neighborhood has neither of those. Evidently, I have to pay higher premiums for fires and risks in Hollywood, Napa, and other places in the country. But when you look at auto insurance and health insurance premiums, they vary by zip code. Poorer zip codes pay higher premiums for both auto insurance and health insurance - I know this because I moved around. I will not be surprised if home insurance premiums are also higher in poorer neighborhoods because my extended family members who live in richer neighborhoods with 50% more house size pay only 10% more in home insurance premium. They live only 15 miles away from me so material and labor cost differences do not explain. We can always explain away anything or build a story around any outcome if we are not interested in progress. Whose progress? you ask!
We are at the mercy of politicians and lobbyists (business leaders).
None of the above helps in figuring out how to protect ourselves from increasing premiums during my life time. (We can hope for some slow (hardly) moving social reforms but that is for another day.)
I buy insurance through a broker and I asked them yesterday and they said (after checking) I am getting the best deal in the market place. I shall call a different broker.

Old_Joe - April 19
@BaluBalu- Be sure to keep us informed of your findings- maybe a new thread devoted to the insurance situation?

BaluBalu - April 19
Good idea. May be @Observant1 / thread moderator can move our recent posts from this thread to the new thread so this thread stays clean so it is easier for others to access old Week in Charts posts.

Observant1 - 11:37AM
I created the new "Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs" thread in Other Investing.
Requested that posts for auto and home insurance in this thread be moved to the new thread.

OK, that should get us off and running on Insurance matters.

PRWCX down in my portfolio on Friday, today. All others up. ….. Funds best ytd: PRFDX worst: PRCPX (junk, barely below the zero-line.)

PRWCX only fell .26% Friday. But TCAF fell .76%. Still, it represents just 1 day. Nothing more.
+1 @Tarwheel on the Roth conversions.
Conflicted as usual. The roughly 1.5% in short positions had a good week and decent month (SDS, PSQ, SJB). Added them 6 weeks ago when equity markets were flaming hot. I like to think holding them tempers daily volatility and allows me to stay pretty much fully / broadly invested. But longer term, going short is “a fool’s errand”. Might be time to head for the exit.

The graphic is set for the 5 days ending April 19, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
ADD an etf performance of your choosing, if you desire. ***
*** Requested ADD: For the week and YTD
--- MINT = +.08% / +1.98% Pimco Ultra Short Term Enhanced Bonds
--- EWW = -3.75% / -4.36% (I Shares, Mexico)
MMKT note: Fidelity mmkt's yields remain unchanged this week, with core acct's yields at 4.95% (SPAXX) and 4.98% (FDRXX).
NOTE: The broad U.S. equity and bond sectors finished the week with losses in many sectors. Not a pretty week for the hold tight portfolio. Equity: The 'big' worst was the growth areas. Using 7 large funds with exposure to tech., semi conductors and related found an average of -7% for the week. Bond funds ranged from +.08% to a -2.2%, with the ultra short term being the best and the very long term being the worst sectors.
NEW: 1 week 'heat map' by sectors. This is an interactive graphic. You may hover the computer pointer over the various blocks to view portions of sectors and/or stocks within those sectors. NOTE: to the left of the graphic, one may change the 1 week performance drop down menu to another time frame. Another example: at the left edge of the graphic, select exchange traded funds and then 1 week or a time period of your choice.
Remain curious,
Catch

4/20/24 Episode:

Top ranked real estate fund manager, Jeffrey Kolitch discusses the compelling opportunities he is finding in the much maligned commercial real estate industry.

Kolitch is the fund manager of 5*M* BREFX. Year to year it ranks either as one of the best or as one of the worst in its category.

STREETWISE. EUROPE (IEV) has underperformed the US (IVV) for quite a while, but that may be changing, according to JPM. Be selective – AZN, DT, UBS, as there is no point going from the US to expensive European stocks – EADSY, ASML, NVO. Elsewhere, analysts are mixed on the outlooks for TSLA (the 2nd worst SP500 stock that reports on 4/23/24) and GL (the worst SP500 stock that was hit by a negative report from a short-selling firm on 4/11/24).
FUNDS. There will be opportunities in bond funds when the interest rate decline (in 2024 or 2025).
Short-Term: VCSH, JPLD, MINT
Intermediate Core-Plus: BYLD, FBND
HY: ANGL, BHYAX, CSOAX, FAGIX (18% equity)
Floating Rate: FLOT (investment-grade), BKLN (junk)
Muni: MUB
Individual corporate bonds are also attractive (from JPM, BOA, WFC, C,PNC, USB, etc)
(Consider this list by Barron’s as a sampling only. There are many more choices in each category, e.g. Treasury FRN USFR in both Short-term/Floating Rate, Fido SPHIX as pure HY, etc.)
FUNDS. They may be tempting now, but don’t overstay in the MONEY-MARKET funds. Most economists and strategists think that the Fed is done tightening, and its next move(s) will be cut(s), although there are some who think that the Fed may surprise by raising rates. Rate cuts will benefit various credits and equities and it’s best to position ahead for possible fast moves.
FUNDS. High-quality (moat), growth-value NRAAX (ER 1.06%; no-load/NTF at Fidelity and Schwab) has a concentrated portfolio with reasonable valuations (so, no NVDA, TSLA, or META). Manager HANSON uses a barbell approach for growth and value, and focuses on customer-centric companies. Fund has “sustainability” in its name, but that is considered much more than ESG.
INCOME. T-Bills ETF BOXX uses options to avoid taxable income and its AUM has grown to $2.3 billion. It uses box-spreads that allow long-term holders to pay only capital gains on sale. There are no income distributions or CG distributions (exploiting ETF’s in-kind transactions). Tax experts doubt that the strategy may withstand IRS and/or SEC scrutiny because, generally, taxes must be paid on imputed income even when not distributed. There are also doubts whether complex options strategies can work in all environments. So, +1 for creativity, 0 for true investor benefits.
Q&A/Interview. Imaru CASANOVA, VanEck. GOLD-bullion (GLD, GLDM, IAU, OUNZ, etc) has rallied on geopolitical tensions, but gold-miners have lagged (GDX, GDXJ, INIVX, etc). This gold rally isn’t being driven by retail, investment demand, or the ETFs, but by central banks (China, India, Turkey, etc). The Western investors are still on the sidelines but may be drawn in as the gold rally continues to $2,600 and beyond. Gold took off after the Russia-Ukraine war as several countries started diversifying away from dollar (due to the US dollar-diplomacy). The Fed is also near the tail end of monetary tightening. However, lately, the historical correlations among gold, rates and dollar have broken down. Gold-miners are lagging badly, but with their average production costs around $1,400, high gold prices will just flow into their bottom lines (earnings, free cash flows). Young investors seem to prefer cryptos over gold, but she thinks that overall, the gold and crypto investors are different. She suggests core gold-bullion and gold-mining holdings in 5-10% range. (VanEck has products for gold-bullion, gold-mining, Bitcoin, cryptos).
RETIREMENT. Consider ROTH CONVERSIONS ahead of the expiration in 2025 of the 2018 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Unless extended or replaced by Congress, higher tax brackets will go up in 2026 and beyond. A sweet spot for Conversions is between early retirement (when income may be low) and age 73 when the RMDs kick in. Also take into account the impact of Medicare IRMAA at high income levels. Benefits of Roth Conversions include tax-free withdrawals in retirement (for any purpose), reduced RMDs and less tax burden for heirs.
EXTRA. Final FIDUCIARY rules for retirement accounts will be released by the DOL soon. Currently, the fees are hidden within the wrap fees or bonuses or commissions and lead to potential conflicts. Critics (IRI, etc) say that the new rules may reduce consumer access to financial advice.
From open LINK1 LINK2
For Barron's subscribers https://www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV

A real E-ticket ride! PRWCX down in my portfolio on Friday, today. All others up. But the full week was a sac of pus. YTD +0.6395%. "Higher for longer" is causing Mr. Market to overreact. But we already knew that Mr. Market ALWAYS over-reacts, both to the upside and downside. Mr. Market is not rational.
Best in '24 ytd: ET.
Worst: BHB, though up on Friday alone by +6.79%, probably on the good earnings report. And BHB announced a raise in its dividend, with a 5% of shares buy-back program.
Funds best ytd: PRFDX
worst: PRCPX (junk, barely below the zero-line.)

Rough week to see the market lost over 5% in the last month. Tech stocks fell but financial and energy rose today. For now, we will hold off on stocks and focus on short term junk bonds. All my high quality bonds have been disappointing this year. Have decent cash % to sit tight for awhile.

Sold all of recently accumulated spec position in NSRGY at above $104. Goes ex-dividend Monday ($3.41 p/s). Will probably buy it back Monday after price falls. Might solve 2 issues (1) a 45-day wait for dividend to be paid out and (2) a 10% foreign tax on dividends.

A new complaint about naked-short-selling filed by DJT.
"Reports indicate that, as of April 3, 2024, DJT was “by far” “the most expensive U.S. stock to short,” meaning that brokers have a significant financial incentive to lend non-existent shares.2 Data made available to us indicate that just four market participants have been responsible for over 60% of the extraordinary volume of DJT shares traded: Citadel Securities, VIRTU Americas, G1 Execution Services, and Jane Street Capital."
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000114036124020575/ny20026576x6_8k.htm
Basically, to short a stock, one must borrow it first. Naked-short-selling means to short a stock without borrowing it first. It has been banned in the US since the GFC - before, there were some permissible situations by broker-dealers.

It appears that Israel has responded to Iran’s attack. This may widen the Middle East conflict.
https://npr.org/2024/04/18/1245763498/israel-iran-missile-strikes
Futures of oil and precious metals went up accordingly.
Edits: 10 year treasury yield rose to 4.64%, the highest in 2024.

FINVIZ offers some guidance as of 10:30 EST, Thursday evening.
I happened to watch this interview this early evening on CNN. Erin Burnett's interview with Iran's foreign minister during the 7pm period, and perhaps 'whatever' was already in motion.

Stocks Down, Bonds Up Sharply, Oil Hits $90, Gold & Safe-Havens Up
Bloomberg / ABC / WSJ and others are citing numerous unconfirmed reports of an Israeli missile attack on Iran tonight (April 19). There are also a few unconfirmed reports. of explosions in Syria and Iraq. Japan’s Nikkei plunged 3% at the open. Other Asian markets down sharply. U.S. stock futures down well over 1% - with NASDAQ futures off over 1.5%. Oil has soared to $90. Gold has advanced past $2400. U.S.10-year bond rate has plunged overnight (bonds higher). The Yen has jumped 5% against the Dollar, Swiss Franc Up
U.S. Officials confirm …
Sleep well …

DJT has filed instructions on how to prevent shorting of the stock.
2 steps are common and typical - move stock to the cash side (from the margin side), discontinue securities lending program.
2 other steps mentioned may have fees - moving stock to the transfer agent or bank.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000114036124020401/ny20026576x5_8k.htm

That's not something you see every day. Methinks there's a sense of panic in the air......as there should be when promoting a meme stock with zero (or even negative) fundamentals.
Too funny.
Edit: Here's their IR FAQ page with guidance. LOL
https://ir.tmtgcorp.com/faq/

DJT has filed instructions on how to prevent shorting of the stock.
2 steps are common and typical - move stock to the cash side (from the margin side), discontinue securities lending program.
2 other steps mentioned may have fees - moving stock to the transfer agent or bank.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000114036124020401/ny20026576x5_8k.htm

VUSXX has virtually the same yield as VMFXX (this has been true for several months), and is mostly state tax exempt.
In a moderate (5%) to high (10%) income tax state, the fund can save 20-40 basis points in taxes (assuming the fund is 80% invested in Treasuries and yields stay above 5%). It may not be worth shopping different institutions to gain a few basis points, but moving from VMFXX to VUSXX can be done overnight and doesn't involve multiple institutions.
https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/money-markets#mm-rates
Of course this only makes sense in a taxable account.

Can VUSXX be used as settlement fund at Vanguard?