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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Trying to pull up some 2008 performance numbers
    Using PV shows that the fund name had been FKINX and in 2008 the return was -30.51%.
    At least that's how I took it.
    Could be. Fido shows FKINX closed to new investors. Modest $1,000 min. and a slightly lower ER (.60) vs. FKIQX’s .70
    Yes. That would explain why Yahoo only went back to 2008. I know it holds plenty of junk. But, even I am surprised at that number.
    I checked at yahoo & Bud’s number is right. FKINX lost 30.5% in ‘08, but gained 35% in ‘09!
    PRWCX lost around 27% in ‘08 for comparison. LCORX lost 27.44%.
    Thanks Yogi & Bud.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Initiated new position in BIZD and ETRN in my income (and some growth) portfolio.
    Shifted some stuff around to consolidate positions a bit as well, but nothing major.
    Ron,
    ETRN is an interesting midstream co. M* FV is about 50% above current price, though its FV estimate is marked as highly uncertain. One thing that caught my eye in M* report is that they give a “poor” grade for capital allocation - I have to look into this.
    Is this a trade or a long term hold buy? Anything you are able to share why you chose this company would be appreciated. Thanks.
  • Trying to pull up some 2008 performance numbers
    From Stockcharts -30.5%.
    It's among the most aggressive conservative-allocation, really moderate-allocation.
  • Trying to pull up some 2008 performance numbers
    Using PV shows that the fund name had been FKINX and in 2008 the return was -30.51%.
    At least that's how I took it.
  • Mag 7 Holdings - How Much You Got?
    This thread is intended to be a food for thought thread and an exploration of just how much we each have in Mag 7 stocks. I'm NOT trying to say anything positive or negative about my portfolio, or yours, if you post your data.
    It's just an exercise in attempting to determine what I (maybe we all) have in Mag 7 stocks, if we think those (perhaps previously unknown) stock allocations are representative of the Total Market (see NOTE below), and if they are right for each of us individually based on our respective strategies and risk profiles.
    So here we go...
    I think we've all heard and read a bunch of times and places that virtually all fund investors have an allocation to the Mag 7 (formerly it was FAANG) and the prevailing notion seems to be that the respective allocations are possibly overweight because SO MANY many funds own them. I think I've always accepted that notion but had never carved out just how much I do have in them respectively. The results were somewhat surprising.
    As background, I maintain a port of about a dozen OEFs and one recently added individual stock, GOOGL. The port is tilted to domestic LCG, about 70% Active/30% passive, with about 12% Foreign. The one other notable dashboard item is my LT FSELX holding, which currently has ~24% allocation to Mag 7 component NVDA. YMWV!
    As the bogey for this discussion, here are the respective Mag 7 allocations in a Total Stock Market Index OEF, using for this thread VTSAX:
    AAPL 6.1%
    AMZN 3.0%
    GOOGL 3.3%
    META 1.7%
    MSFT 6.0%
    NVDA 2.5%
    TSLA 1.4%
    Total 24.0%
    Here are my respective allocations (Note: I only have one OEF that does NOT have at least one Mag 7 holding), but I'm still about 3% UNDER the VTSAX Total:
    AAPL 3.5%
    AMZN 3.0%
    GOOGL 3.8%
    META 1.0%
    MSFT 6.0%
    NVDA 3.3%
    TSLA 0.5%
    Total 21.2%
    Here are my respective allocations without my two outlier positions of FSELX and GOOGL, which in Total are notably LOWER than the VTSAX Total (EDITED per post by @msf - Thank You!):
    AAPL 3.8%
    AMZN 3.2%
    GOOGL 2.8%
    META 1.1%
    MSFT 6.5%
    NVDA 2.2%
    TSLA 0.6%
    Total 20.1%
    NOTE: To make these comparisons apples-to-apples with VTSAX, an all stock OEF, the two lists of my Mag 7 allocations use the amount of stocks in my portfolio as the denominator. And IMO that makes a lot more sense as all of us have varying Stock/Bond/Cash allocations.
    So the items of note from my first cursory review of this data:
    MSFT is the one Mag 7 stock that many domestic OEFs (or, at least the ones I hold) provide the highest allocation, as much as 2x the next group.
    It's likely that we all do get a representative allocation in the 2%-3% range, of AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL and NVDA via typical OEF holdings.
    It's likely that we all wish we had a higher allocation to NVDA (which we have effectively increased to 3.3% from 2.1% by our FSELX holding).
    It's likely that we all do NOT get anywhere near as much of META or TSLA through typical holdings.
    For my port, my holding of GOOGL stock, and FSELX with its large NVDA allocation, are appropriate outlier holdings FOR ME, and bring my respective Mag 7 allocations more in line with my strategy and risk profile.
    Here's hoping that others either know, or take the time to carve out their respective allocations, and share them here. Your findings may be surprising to you and just may cause this thread to be of some importance and perhaps even actionable.
  • T+1 Settlement Starts on 28 May 2024
    Remember, T+3 changed to T+2 only in 2017 (not that long ago). And before T+3 was T+5.
    Anyway, we should welcome T+1 on 5/28/24. This change was announced a couple of years ago, but firms were given a window of time to get ready for it.
    https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/understanding-settlement-cycles
  • T+1 Settlement Starts on 28 May 2024
    About time,, when did computers come on the scene... 1970-80? Only took 40 years to get to T+1
    No kidding. Progress, right? While T+3 was needed when things were paper-based, I suspect it's probably stuck around so long b/c brokerages liked having T+3 and T+2 days to collect interest on unsettled funds? I guess the SEC finally said, "no, this is bad for investors."
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (02/05/24)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:20 A Blowout Jobs Report
    02:45 Say Goodbye to the March Rate Cut (FOMC Meeting)
    06:54 A Year of Central Bank Easing
    08:38 Money Making Machines (Earnings)
    14:37 The Iron Rule of Financial Markets (Ark vs. Berkshire)
    17:10 No Recession in Luxury Goods (Ferrari)
    21:59 Rising Residential vs. Crumbling Commercial
    27:34 The India/China Divergence
    31:22 Weight Loss Drug Boom (Eli Lilly)
    33:19 More Affordable Rents
    Video
    Blog
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?

    Anyone considering EMs needs to study the Callan Chart (below), and unless they are the amongst the world's best market timers, think again, and Just Say No!
    Click on the 2023 PDF Chart at
    https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/

    In another thread, you've mentioned Rajiv Jain and GSIHX. Be aware that it holds about ~25% EM country equities. Much lower than his EM fund though.
    Yeah, thanks. I never BUY a fund without reviewing a lot of stuff including of course its composition. Most of its EM is in India and Brazil and I am more than fine with those exposures, especially since I have negligible, I mean negligible, other EM exposure in my other funds.
    I should have been clearer in my prior post. My comments were intended to be about dedicated Diversified Emerging Market funds. As others have noted, if you have a Foreign or Global stock fund, it's likely going to have at least some EM. GSIHX has a bit more than I'd prefer, but as stated, I have very little in my domestic dominated port.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    @BenWP, US-style capitalism has favored shareholders (not necessarily an equitable division of profits), but EM firms have funneled the dough into the hands of corrupt officials, founding families, and antidemocratic governments.
    I couldn’t agree more. I have to hold my noise investing in 529 plan that have Total International market index fund that has 20% EM. There are limited choice available. These days investing in EM is much worse than 20 years ago.
    Buffet said that “there are few better place to invest than America” and he is spot on.
  • T+1 Settlement Starts on 28 May 2024
    T+1 settlement for stocks/ETFs/CEFs will start on May 28, 2024. This should eliminate the confusion that is possible now with T+1 for mutual funds/OEFs, but T+2 for others.
    https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2024/02/05/t1-starts-in-may-are-you-ready/
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    "EM firms have funneled the dough into the hands of corrupt officials, founding families, and antidemocratic governments."
    Sounding more and more American as time goes on...count me in. I've been invested in Rajiv Jain's GSIHX since September 2018 and established a position in their EM fund last year, GQGIX. It's ~55% India and Brazil which I favor.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    EM? Ideal for small speculative positions. You can even hone in on specific areas like Latin America, Africa, Middle East. The trick is knowing when to get in (generally when things can’t get any worse) and when to get out (ie: just before Putin invades some small area country). Like @MikeM said - you reach an age where such speculative excursions no longer appeal.
    To the broader question - Many international or global funds have small positions in EM. This exposure should be identifiable in the firm’s documents or by using M* or other analytics. That’s a much safer, less speculative way to get some exposure. Were I inclined to own a diversified global / international stock fund, I’d be comfortable with it if it limited EM to perhaps 20% of portfolio.
    I found a 2017 M* (UK) article that sheds some light on the broader issue.
    (excerpt) “For most global equity funds that invest directly in emerging markets, the allocation typically doesn’t rise above 5%. Just a handful of funds invest a significant portion of their assets in developing countries, with direct exposures exceeding 20% as per the end of March 2017.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?

    Anyone considering EMs needs to study the Callan Chart (below), and unless they are the amongst the world's best market timers, think again, and Just Say No!
    Click on the 2023 PDF Chart at
    https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/
    In another thread, you've mentioned Rajiv Jain and GSIHX. Be aware that it holds about ~25% EM country equities. Much lower than his EM fund though.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    Before I was blocked from reading it further, I think I saw the OP linked article state EMs have the best growth opportunities over the next 5-10 years, and if it doesn't all start now, it will within the next 1-2 years. Say what? Not quite the ringing endorsement I'd need to jump off the EM plank!
    Anyone considering EMs needs to study the Callan Chart (below), and unless they are the amongst the world's best market timers, think again, and Just Say No!
    Click on the 2023 PDF Chart at
    https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    BTW, many broadly diversified foreign funds have stakes in EM stocks ranging from 5-20%. That’s plenty enough for me.
  • February MFO is Live
    MFO, February 2024 https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/issue/february-2024/
    In reading through, I had some random observations.
    Re @lynnbolin2021, 60-40 was never dead. It was just dormant or in hibernation for a while. The entire fund universe has an allocation (the ICI data posted on MFO monthly),
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 59.11%, Hybrids 4.72%, Bonds 18.57%, M-Mkt 17.60%,
    So, for many, 60-40, or some variation (including alternatives), is fine. But others use DIY and that is fine too. Surprisingly, I have seen some pieces with stock-bond-Bitcoin mix - had to happen after the reluctant approval by the SEC (under a court threat) of several Bitcoin ETFs.
    Re @TheShadow, Hartford International HAOYX was dropped from Schwab DAF and replaced by MFS MIEKX. so, HAOYX is reopening, no surprise - it needs money.
    Re @David_Snowball #8, "Black Americans are becoming stock investors in record numbers."
    TIAA recently partnered with Wyclef Jean to try the "Rap Approach" to investing. Will it catch on? Those on Facebook can check Facebook LINK.
  • January MFO is live
    Thank you, @Hank, for the kind words. This month, in "Patriotic Millionaires and the Uncertainty of Taxes", I show that the rich borrow and invest the money in stocks much as you described in ”New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)”. The tax system allows the rich to withdraw their money at the lower capital gains rate which are not incurred until the stock is sold, and the "Stepped Up" basis benefits heirs.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2024/02/patriotic-millionaires-and-the-uncertainty-of-taxes/
    Those of us not in the "rich" category can still benefit. I have about 15% of my portfolio in after-tax accounts in a long-term investment bucket. In "No, The 60/40 Portfolio Is Not Dead", I show that stock valuations are high so now is a good time to be more conservative.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2024/02/no-the-60-40-portfolio-is-not-dead/
    When valuations fall in the next one to three years, I plan on increasing the allocations to stocks in these after-tax accounts to maybe even 100% to take advantage of the lower capital gains that are not occurred until the stock is sold. I will use a variable withdrawal strategy to withdraw extra from Traditional IRAs (Bucket #2) when market conditions are favorable and put the funds in a short-term Bucket for living expenses for when market conditions are unfavorable.
    My article last month did not include taxes in some of the analysis. Having pensions and Social Security allows me to be less dependent upon withdrawing from savings. I will be adjusting my strategy based in part on the thoughtful insights in the MFO Discussion Board, and the research behind these articles.
  • 3 more Matthews Portfolio Managers exit
    Yup. Here is the article:
    Matthews Asia’s Pacific equity fund under review as veteran exits
    Flurry of fund-manager switches continues, with Sharat Shroff to leave by the end of the year, while EM and Japan equity managers also depart.
    Updated: Sharat Shroff will be added to Matthews Asia’s ever-expanding list of manager changes as the veteran Asian equity investor aims to leave the US-based boutique at the end of the year.
    Shroff, who joined the firm in 2005, is to formally exit at the end of this month, relinquishing roles across several strategies, most prominently the Matthews Pacific Tiger fund.
    Shroff was relieved of his role on the Matthews Asia ex Japan Total Return Equity fund at the start of the month, with newly added chief investment officer (CIO) Sean Taylor stepping in.
    It is understood Taylor, who formally becomes CIO next month but has been with the group since October, will take over as lead manager of the Pacific Tiger fund, with Inbok Song becoming co-lead.
    Andrew Mattock and Winnie Chwang will remain in situ as co-portfolio managers. At the same time, Matthews Asia will deepen the investment talent with emerging markets specialist Jeremy Sutch and Indian equity manager Peeyush Mittal also named as co-portfolio managers.
    The Matthews Asia Pacific Tiger fund is underperforming in its peer group, with a three-year total loss of 21.9% in US dollar terms to the end of November 2023. This is while the average fund in the Equity - Asia Pacific ex Japan sector fell 17% over the same period.
    The latest change regarding the Pacific Tiger fund, which has $276m (£217.5m) in its Ucits-compliant version and $2.35bn in its US vehicle, has prompted Morningstar to place the strategy under review.
    In an analyst note, Morningstar’s Bill Rocco wrote: ‘That’s an exceptional amount of personnel change, and this strategy’s restructured team could lead to modest or even significant modifications to its process or portfolio. Consequently, this strategy has been put under review.’
    Speaking to Citywire Selector last week, Cooper Abbott, CIO of Matthews Asia, delved into the widespread changes he has enacted since taking over in the summer of 2022. As well as tweaking and closing several funds, it’s also involved a huge amount of portfolio manager changes.
    One of the most prominent ones was the decision of Robert Horrocks to step down as CIO, with former DWS emerging markets chief Taylor being recruited to take over. Abbott said his emphasis would be on quality and experience, which has led to more teams-based investment approaches.
    A spokesperson for Matthews Asia told Citywire Selector: ‘Sharat has decided to leave the firm effective 31 December to pursue other opportunities. He will continue to partner with the portfolio management team on the transition of the portfolio.’
    Update: Further exits
    A spokesperson confirmed to Citywire Selector that, in addition to Shroff’s planned departure, emerging markets manager John Paul Lech and Japan specialist Taizo Ishida left the company on 19 December.
    Lech had been with the company since 2018, while Ishida had been with Matthews Asia since 2006.
    Speaking to Citywire Selector regarding these most recent changes, Cooper Abbott said: ‘Since my arrival at Matthews, we have made some changes, all with the goal of improving investment results for our clients.
    ‘A strong investment culture seeks to continually strengthen investment focus and outcomes. That is what we are doing.
    ‘Recent investment personnel terminations are testament to Matthews’ dedication to investment results, making changes where they are necessary to drive long-term alpha.
    ‘Matthews has exceptionally deep investment talent. We pride ourselves on delivering excellent investment results and high-quality client experiences... and will continue to deliver upon this goal.’
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    What are people's views on Emerging Markets for the next 5 years? Lazard and AQR are very bullish. Is it always a tough sell with the BATNA being the S&P500/magnificent 7?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/quant-fund-aqr-doubles-down-on-bullish-call-for-emerging-markets?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy