Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The MOVE Index - Please Share your Insight
    $MOVE is now recognized by StockCharts, but its history is from 03/2021 only; Yahoo finance has recognized ^MOVE for quite a while and has a longer history.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$MOVE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92417735568
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    IIRC he only gets those extra 30m shares if the price is above 17.50 for a certain period of time. Based on recent price action, that floor may be breached in a few weeks. LOL
    Not a chance that those shares will not be granted. As @Mark wrote above:
    The shares have already been earned because the calculation for performance was volume weighted and in the first week of trading there was huge volume at high prices.
    From the SPAC merger proxy statement/prospectus :
    The Earnout Shares shall be earned and payable during the Earnout Period as follows:
    • if the dollar volume-weighted average price (“VWAP”) of New Digital World common stock equals or exceeds $12.50 per share for any 20 trading days within any 30 trading day period, New Digital World shall issue to the former TMTG stockholders an additional 15,000,000 Earnout Shares;
    • if the VWAP of New Digital World common stock equals or exceeds $15.00 per share for any 20 trading days within any 30 trading day period, New Digital World shall issue to the former TMTG stockholders an additional 15,000,000 Earnout Shares; and
    • if the VWAP of New Digital World common stock equals or exceeds $17.50 per share for any 20 trading days within any 30 trading day period, New Digital World shall issue to the former TMTG stockholders an additional 10,000,000 Earnout Shares.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312524038590/d408563d424b4.htm
    Post merger, Digital World became Trump Media.
  • Jamie Dimon (JPM) Looking for Future Rate Storms
    Interesting that Jamie Dimon's concerns have been quoted widely, but his wide rate range of 2-8% is skipped in these quotes. All he may be trying to say that as the largest bank in the US (TBTF, SIFI, etc; also largest globally by market-cap but not by assets), he is prepared for all eventualities.
    BTW, Treasury volatility is indicated by MOVE (it's like VIX for bonds) and it's now 121; recent 52-wk high was 148 in 10/2022; all-time low was 37 in 09/2020.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^MOVE
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    IIRC he only gets those extra 30m shares if the price is above 17.50 for a certain period of time. Based on recent price action, that floor may be breached in a few weeks. LOL
    Interestingly in their (original?) prospectus they say they don't track or report 'metrics' that 'would be normally expected of companies in their line of work' (eg, standard data/metrics for social media companies such as MAUs, engagements, etc) -- which should've raised suspicions of ANYONE with a clue who was remotely thinking of investing into them.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    From another discussion board:
    "Want to hear something really crazy about this: "36 million earnout shares which may be earned by Trump based on the performance of DJT's shares of common stock". The shares have already been earned because the calculation for performance was volume weighted and in the first week of trading there was huge volume at high prices.
    According to the SEC filing, the prospectus relates to the offer and sale from time to time by the selling securityholders of 146.11 million common shares, including 114.75 million common shares held by former President Donald Trump. This prospectus is not an offer to sell these securities.
    The 114.75 million common shares held by Trump consist of 78.75 million shares of common stock received by Trump upon the consummation of the business combination in exchange of private TMTG shares held by Trump, and 36 million earnout shares which may be earned by Trump based on the performance of DJT's shares of common stock.
    Trump holds approximately 58% of outstanding shares of Trump Media (DJT).
    According to Trump Media (DJT), it will not receive any proceeds of sale of shares of common stock or warrants by holders." - bidtheroll
    "The 6 month lock-up period is still in place. My guess is that this filing may be in anticipation of the board and underwriters waiving the lock up period. You can bet if the lock up period is waived, the stock will crash bigly.
    Clips from the S-1 below: The second clip indicates that the basis in the shares by the current shareholder is 1 cent!
    Approximate date of commencement of proposed sale to the public: From time to time after this Registration Statement becomes effective.If any of the securities being registered on this Form are to be offered on a delayed or continuous basis pursuant to Rule 415 under the Securities Act of 1933 check the following box: ☒
    The sale of the Resale Securities, or the perception that these sales could occur, could depress the market price of our Common Stock. Despite a decline in price, our Selling Securityholders may still experience a positive rate of return on the shares of Common Stock purchased by them due to the lower price per share at which such shares of Common Stock were purchased as referenced above. While these Selling Securityholders may, on average, experience a positive rate of return based on the current market price, public securityholders may not experience a similar rate of return on the shares of Common Stock they purchased if there is such a decline in price and due to differences in the purchase prices and the current market price. For example, based on the closing price of $32.59 per share on April 12, 2024, ARC and certain other Selling Securityholders may receive potential profits of up to $32.58 per share of Common Stock.
    We are an “emerging growth company” and a “smaller reporting company” under the federal securities laws and are subject to reduced public company reporting requirements." - Also by bidtheroll
    Link to Edgar S-1 filing:
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    BOOM.
    Buried deep in the prospectus, in the list of 'Selling Shareholders' Donald J. Trump​ is listed as making 114,750,000 shares available under this offering at that insanely-deflated strike price. We all knew it was a matter of time before he would try and dump his shares to raise cash.
    I wonder how many other shares he might indirectly hold thru some of the entities listed there as well.
    Serious question...how does he legally get away with doing this?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @MikeM- from personal experience if JPMorgan Chase can call a CD they will. I had an 18 month @5.7 and they just called it with 9 months left to go. I think that was the only callable CD that I have.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Put a good chunk of cash into a 1-year JPMorgan Chase CD at 5.5%. The cash was making 5.17% in the Schwab MM so a small upgrade. Yes, it's callable, but good for at least 6 months.
    Put a little play money into COM (DIREXION AUSPICE BRD CMDT STRG ETF). I've held it in the past and it's a fairly conservative play on commodities. May be a little late but hopefully it could last a while longer.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Down another 3% after hours- brings today to -22%. Now $25 and change. My oh my.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    -17% today as of 2:50 PM.
    Genius at work.
    Wasn't it "Super Genius"? No, wait - that's Wile E. Coyote. Ah, yes, he is the self-proclaimed "stable genius".
    Next stop - $18.
    Can he also lead an insurrection to the Nasdaq exchange - is there an official Nasdaq office building?
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    From Investor's Business Daily-
    Well, that didn't take long. Investors already lost $5.3 billion on shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) — with Donald Trump himself eating most of the losses.
    Shares of the money-losing holding company plummeted 59% from their high notched on March 27, erasing $5.3 billion in wealth, says an Investor's Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSurge. The S&P 500 in that time is only down 2.4%. Just Monday, shares of Trump Media & Technology plunged more than 10%. *
    * Make that "plunged more than 18%" as of this minute.
    Well, at least all of this may serve to take Trump's mind off of the jury selection as he sits there...
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    -17% today as of 2:50 PM.
    Genius at work.
    "It'll still go to $1000..."
    "I keep buying but it still goes down...."
    - some of his rubes
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Great! If that's true and he times it in his always perfect ways maybe he'll be able to add another felony to his list.
    "Under federal law, the crime of Securities Fraud is a Class C felony, punishable by up to twenty years in prison, three years of supervised release, and $5 million in fines."
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    BOOM.
    Buried deep in the prospectus, in the list of 'Selling Shareholders' Donald J. Trump​ is listed as making 114,750,000 shares available under this offering at that insanely-deflated strike price. We all knew it was a matter of time before he would try and dump his shares to raise cash.
    I wonder how many other shares he might indirectly hold thru some of the entities listed there as well.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    options/warrants typically have exercise prices ABOVE the current prices
    Typically, one expects a stock's price to increase.
    Historical prices for DJTWW (warrants).
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJTWW/history
    The prices seem to be moving in the "wrong" direction. It may not be long before the market considers the warrants to be worth less than $11.50. That is, the market may soon conclude that buying and exercising a warrant will get you a share of DJT worth less than $11.50 under the terms of the warrant.
    (I haven't read the doc closely for terms and conditions.)
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    And the hits just keep on a coming. Article
    You've got to get the money from somewhere.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    DJT secondary filed for 146,108,680 shares of common stock and 4,061,251 Warrants (exercisable at $11.50; STRANGE, as options/warrants typically have exercise prices ABOVE the current prices).
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000114036124019745/ny20026576x1_s1.htm
    That smells fishy to me ... I don't remember seeing this happen before, and you're right in how you described it. Frankly, it makes me think of the 'options backdating' scandal from 10-15 years ago, except this time it's games being played with strike prices, not issuance dates.