Even as a physician, I have a hard time figuring out biotech. I am personal friends with one of the Lecanemab investigators, but of course he could not share the news of it's effectiveness until it was publicly available in late 2022. With a press release 10/2022 BIIB popped 38%. Unless you knew someone and got inside information, it would have been hard to take advantage of it before the news hit.
Years ago, a urologist friend of mine, who was enrolling patients in the study of what became Viagra, told me it looked like it "really" worked, as the results, vs placebo, were pretty obvious! I am sure he bought a fair amount of Pfizer stock, although unless he sold it he may be underwater now.
The bottom line is it is very difficult for a professional biochemist or physician investigator to predict what will happen in any specific clinical trial, unless there is a striking and easily identifiable difference between treatment and placebo, as with Viagra. There have been multiple trials of mabs for Alzheimer's and probably billions of dollars spent until one was approved.
However, Biogen stock is selling below it's price when the research was released and a fraction of it's all time high in 201
5.
Biogen is partners on Lecanemab which unlike adhelum, looks like it does have a significant effect on Alzheimer's, although it is modest and it is unclear how long it will last, and whether it will really reduce economic burden of Alzheimer's long term. (A completely rational approval process would have required evidence that it was cost effective, ie reduced long term costs of Alzheimer's, but the FDA laws do not require that, and the Alzheimer's lobby would have fought it tooth and nail; they called the conditional approval of adhelm "immoral" although it of course has been basically discontinued) Biogen has since dropped adhelum because it is minimally effective.
Biogen is furiously concocting new markets and new approaches.
https://investors.biogen.com/news-releases/news-release-details/eisai-presents-new-leqembir-lecanemab-irmb-investigationalHow much of this hits the bottom line at BIIB is unclear. With new Alzheimer's tau protein blood tests available, if people with minimal forgetfulness are approved for treatment, the market may indeed be huge, but there will be a furious fight over approvals and prices etc as this has the potential to be budget breaking.
Medicare is trying to prevent store front clinics "Get you memory test here and we will fix it" by requiring registries and certifications. They may be less success with the obesity drugs and some weight loss clinics have been using them off label for years.
Probably argues for an equal weight biotech fund or just sticking to general health care funds.
