Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 3/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
No changes; early release; new declaration yr starts
Restricted RC 5.50%, RA 5.25%
Flexible RCP 4.75%, SRA 4.50%, IRA-101110+ 4.75%
TSP G Fund 4.250% (previous 4.625%). (Edited 3/3/25)
Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
#StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1892/thread

It's not surprising that the Bull-Bear Spread is very low due to current events.
What does the data suggest if the Bull-Bear Spread remains at very low levels?
Are there any studies showing the potential impact to consumer spending?

Subu Trade (check X) has such a study, Maybe YBB can post the study. Bulls minus Bears greater than 40 very rare. Before this latest print had only occurred 10 times since 1990.
In almost all cases the S@P was higher 2,3,6,9 months and one year later. 13.67% six months, 19.17% nine months, and 22.01% a year out,

Not that it matters, but this "bug" was not well reported.
The way many of the reports came out (COBOL, ancient people supposedly getting benefits) made it sound like a Y2K problem. A lot of business programs, often written in COBOL, represented years as two digits (e.g. 1945 would be represented as 45). So the system would get confused with anyone over age 100. For example, is someone born in '01' 24 years old or 124 years old?
Yogi may have had this in the back of his mind, since he suggested that SS stops paying for people over 100 years old. Actually, the SSA system stops paying benefits at age 115. So it isn't a Y2K issue, or even a COBOL issue per se.
1875 may have been programmed in as the default year of birth for unknown years, but it is not something designed into the COBOL language. Unlike, say, Jan 1, 1970 00:00:00 is designed into the C language as the "epoch tine".
The takeaway from this nonsense is that the DOGE "whiz kids" didn't care about what SSA's programs really do, and also that tech reporters seem hardly more enlightened. My mother was a COBOL programmer (one of multiple careers) and would likely have been laughing at all of this.

https://mcusercontent.com/6632e94d6daa1bdbf46f55a23/files/129212a4-3626-1293-d324-00a2e6e459bf/PR4Q24_Eng_Full_Report.01.pdf
Dunno who else might be interested. A bright corner of my portfolio. (Surprise! Despite the Orange Flatulence's saber-rattling about the Canal.)

@Crash Note the date of premium Feb.21
Added: Today another drop, so what is the premium now?

Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 1/31/25
Some shift into stock funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $38.84 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $388.4 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #ICI #Funds #OEFs #ETFs
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.10%, Hybrids 4.23%, Bonds 17.30%
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1891/thread

breaking small things, huh
Just today Mump1 is publicly trying to (re)rehire bird-flu researchers and senior AT controllers.
And yesterday Mump2 asked his Cabinet if anyone was unhappy and they all applauded.
Truly bad times ahead.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/cruel-and-usual-republicans-prepare

Summary prospectus:
(TCAL):
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/000174177325000929/c497k.htm
THEQ:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/000174177325000700/c497k.htm

AAII Sentiment is contrarian for the stock market, so don't sell when Bull-Bear Spread is very low.
However, poor sentiment may hurt consumer spending, and the Fed watches UM Sentiment that hit a low in 2022 and was rebounding until recently.
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/get-chart.php?y=2025&m=1&n=1ar&d=ylch&f=pdf&k=5a7dcaad1e4b96b9dc6b3f57cbdaa4aa7da94555cc1e88efd642b24b4f9eec78
The federal nonmilitary payroll is only 3 million - a couple of large US corporations may have more employees (WMT, AMZN). But there may be chain reactions from sudden federal halts for payments of existing grants and contracts and federal layoffs - normally, freezes/cuts apply to new grants and contracts. The affected nonprofits, universities/colleges, companies will soon be having related layoff.

Morningstar
https://www.morningstar.com › stocks › pinx › quote
PRYMY is trading at a 41% premium. Price. $35.68. Feb 21 ...

...I see a 12% premium, ork?
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/pinx/prymy/price-fair-value

Morningstar
https://www.morningstar.com › stocks › pinx › quote
PRYMY is trading at a 41% premium. Price. $35.68. Feb 21 ...

Bought starter position in PRYMY on its 11% swoon this morning. Been watching this one for ages.

I believe the total to be 37.2 +8 = 45.2% state non taxable ? Agree or not ?
.
PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION BY SECURITY TYPE % OF INVESTMENTS
57.7% Repurchase Agreements
U.S. Government Agency 20.5%
U.S. Treasury 37.2%
34.1% U.S. Government Agency Debt
8.0% U.S. Treasury Debt
0.2% Variable Rate Demand Notes

This public/private-credit etf PRIV from State Street & Apollo has some unusual twists – it will hold private-credits in 10-35% range and Apollo will act as daily liquidity provider to overcome the SEC limitations on illiquid holdings to 15%. So, basically, Apollo will buy units if there are excessive daily redemptions and State Street can buyback those on demand.
I don't know of ANY similar arrangements in the listed funds (ORFs, ETFs, CEFs). But there has been a similar Liquidity Guarantee for the TIAA Real Estate Account VA (QREARX) since 1995! TIAA charges a fee for this Liquidity Guarantee. TIAA buys QREARX units when there are excessive redemptions and QREARX buys them back later. This feature has been triggered twice, once during the GFC, and recently in 2023. TIAA hasn't lost money on this Guarantee - in addition to collecting fee (included in the ER), it has been able to get out of the units bought at decent profits. It's the magic of deep-pockets.
https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/groundbreaking-new-etf-arrives
Filings
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1516212/000119312525036426/d915332d497k.htm
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1516212/000119312525035495/d865902d485bpos.htm
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1516212/000119312524216340/d878371d485apos.htm

AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/26/25
BEARISH remained the top sentiment (60.8%, very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (19.4%, very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (20.0%, low); Bull-Bear Spread was -41.4% (very low; 2.3 yr low). Investor concerns: Jobs, budget, debt, inflation, the Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (157+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+ weeks; cease fire). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds up, oil down, gold down, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 50.83% (positive, barely). DJIA & SP500 fell below 50-dMA, Nasdaq Comp & R2000 were below 200-dMA. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1889/thread

@FD1000, I was comparing returns the last few period, and want to ask you of the bond players here why for the last several years you did not simply combine FIGXX or similar at Fido with STIP, instead of putzing around w PONAX and all of the other bond funds you do?

JQUA outperformed SPHQ, QUAL, and VFIAX on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis
from Dec. 2017 - Jan. 2025. The time period was constrained by available data for JQUA.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1h6EglHoYVwvNJlJYjcA56

Repost from ongoing MFOP update thread ...
Sweet 10 months for these MultiSector Income funds: Holbrook Structured Income I (HOSIX), SEI Opportunistic Income A (ENIAX), RBC BlueBay Strategic Income I (RBSIX), and Credit Suisse Strategic Income I (CSOIX).
No (month ending) drawdown. Healthy return.

StockRover includes a Novy-Marx Quality screener and Sloan Ratio metrics.
Unfortunately, both can only be used for stocks and are not applicable for ETFs.
I don't know how to screen mutual funds/ETFs for academics' quality measures or if this is even possible.
Novy-Marx Quality
It looks for quality as measured by gross profits over total assets, momentum as measured by 1 year price change and value as measured by low price to book ratios.
This screener also filters out stocks with very low market caps and trading volumes.
Sloan Ratio
The Sloan Ratio identifies companies with high accrual ratios, or high non-cash income or expenses.
Sloan found that over a 40 year period buying low accrual companies and shorting high accrual ones generated a return of more than twice the S&P 500. The ratio is computed by subtracting operating and investment cash flow from net income and dividing by total assets. If the result is between -10% and 10%
the company is in the safe zone but if the result is greater than 25% or less than -25% earnings are likely
to be made up of accruals. Accruals that continue across several quarters are a signal for doctored earnings.

Party like it's 1999.
It's 0330 and I'm at the Marina Safeway listening to one stock clerk tell another, "Yeah, it's easy. If they start to go down you just sell."