Buy low, sell high. Which funds aren't based on a formula?
I think of the formulas as theses, though not in the academic definition of the word. I would not invest in a fund if the prospectus could not coherently express the rationale, formula, thesis, approach, what have you, behind their choices. I would not invest in a fund that does not apply its formula reasonably consistently.
Are there any funds based on the idea of throwing what would now be virtual darts at virtual stock pages? Been about 40 years since I read Random Walk. I think that's where I got the idea.
If the market is going up, most theses will likely do well enough for you, if you understand why you bought it in the first place. If the market is going down, almost everything looks dreary. But utes and staples, two hoary formulas, did all right for me in 2022.
Should we wave bye-bye to the the Fama-French three factor model? How many times have you heard that small caps and value are dead? None the less, since inception in March of 2008, the formula behind RWJ has outperformed the mighty 500 formula.
I'm no fan of quants. But back in the day they were generally marketed on the notion that they had some secret formula in a black box that they could not share due to something, something, something. In which case, the prospectus might look something like this:

The XYZ fund is firmly rooted in the time-tested principle of magical thinking. We believe that the sponsor can reasonably expect to line it's pockets, and reward shareholders of the sponsor, at the expense of gullible investors.

MFO's Basic Screener (aka QuickSearch) is still free!

Yes it is, and it is a fine engine with several post-analysis criteria available (Great Owl, MFO risk,etc.). But just as with M*'s "new and degraded" premium investor screener,only post-analysis criteria are available.
Neither tool provides screens for funds based on annualized returns, though those figures are displayed in the result sets and one can sort them. Nor are other raw (pre-analysis) screening criteria like ER or AUM available.
My preference is to slice and dice raw data (annualized returns, ERs, etc.). My ideal would be a screener that let the user write their own queries - to have access to every data column, to be able to use logical connectors. For example:
> $1B in AUM or (> $500M in AUM and < 3 years old).
M*'s premium fund screener was great at this. It provided access to a plethora of underlying data categories and let you build queries using ands and ors
https://screen.morningstar.com/v2/AdvFunds/data_definition.html?field=Sector+Weightings
After that tool vanished, M*'s basic fund screener was still available for awhile. It was a very weak tool. But it did have a limited ability to screen on a few raw data attributes. Now what?

AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/3/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (48.6%; high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (25.1%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (27.9%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +25.1% (high). Investor concerns: Budget; inflation; economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine (97+ weeks); Israel-Hamas (12+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds down, oil down, gold down, dollar up. An unexpected strength in dollar may be hurting everything else. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1303/thread

@Crash ". Zero tax due, after deductions." Deductions from your wife's pay check ? If that's what your saying , will they be enough to cover withdrawals from tax-sheltered account ?
With that said, it may be better to pay taxes now than later ?
Happy New Year to you & wifey, Derf

Hello, @Derf.
No, I meant just the married/joint tax return standard deduction, plus the small extra deduction because I'm over 65. Even with no tax due expected, we still must file. Don't want any trouble down the road. Wifey is officially unemployed. Wink, wink. All reported income is mine, nothing from her. SS, pension, investment income.

We can always learn something from each other...

Sorry @Baseball_Fan. I learn nothing from repetitive gloating nor can I believe someone who always says they made the perfect call - after the fact.

(link)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/763852/000119312524001085/d600372d497.htm
497 1 d600372d497.htm JPMORGAN TRUST II
J.P. MORGAN U.S. EQUITY FUNDS
JPMorgan Equity Income Fund
(the “Fund”)
(a series of JPMorgan Trust II)
(All Share Classes)
Supplement dated January 3, 2024
to the current Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information,
as supplemented
Effective January 15, 2024, the Fund will no longer be subject to a limited offering, and all limited offering disclosure relating to the Fund will be deleted.
INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT WITH THE
SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES, PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

As I wrote above, even taking state income taxes into account, T-bills purchased a year ago didn't beat RPHYX, let alone RPHIX, after taxes. Though the numbers do work out differently if you're in the 32% or higher federal bracket.
There is another tax factor to consider: when are taxes due? Interest from 52 week T-bills purchased at the beginning of January 2023 is not taxed until April 2025. That is, all the income is taxed as 2024 income. RPHIX pays periodic dividends, so divs from Jan 2023, Feb 2023, ..., Dec 2023 are all taxed in April 2024.
That's a point in favor of T-bills assuming you purchased T-bills in 2023 that still haven't matured.
Delving even deeper into tax differences, for 2023 RPHIX had a twelve month distribution yield of 5.08% and a total return of 5.87%. That means that only 5.08% is subject to taxes now. The rest of the return is unrealized appreciation. That isn't taxed this coming April, and might not be taxed for years. And when it is, it will be taxed on the federal level at a cap gains rate.
That's a point in favor of RPHIX.
People had lots of reasons to choose T-bills over RPHYX / RPHIX: I wanted more certainty, I wouldn't make that much less with T-bills because of tax issues, I would have to hold the shares for 60+ days to avoid a short term fee, I wanted to diversify/split my bets, etc. Add to that: I couldn't buy shares because the fund was not open a year ago.
Hindsight tells us what we could have done. What matters is what we can do now. RPHYX / RPHIX has reopened to new investors. So there are even more people facing this conundrum now. :-)

https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/PRCFX#content-performance
These were the very initial allocations for PRCFX when Total Assets were only $25M:
Holdings at Nov 30, 2023:
Domestic Bonds 51%
Domestic Stocks 40%
Cash 5%
Foreign Bonds 4%
Top Holdings:
Microsoft
Apple
Google
Amazon
UnitedHealth Grp

Key Takeaways
Positive sentiment from the Federal Reserve powered the Morningstar Global 60/40 Index to a 4.7% return in December 2023. The index finished the year 14.8% higher than where it started.
Exchange-traded funds’ $598 billion haul for the year fell well short of their 2021 record as money market funds offered renewed competition for investor assets.
Stock ETFs led all broad category groups with $384 billion of inflows in 2023, but bond ETFs grew at a faster rate.
Investors opted for growth-stock funds over value strategies and faster-growing sector portfolios over cheaper ones.
Covered-call strategies powered the nontraditional-equity cohort to another sparkling year; defined-outcome ETFs brought solid inflows into alternatives.
Active ETFs represented 5.3% of the ETF market entering 2023 but claimed 21.9% of overall flows for the year.
Vanguard reeled in $159 billion, leading all ETF providers for the fourth consecutive year.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/etfs-cap-off-another-year-inflows-style

only curious if this is in each fund or an aggregate amount in the funds of the firm?
"Schaja has invested more than USD 1 million in five of the six funds RiverPark offers"
If the answer is not known off hand, no need to look it up for me.
FYI only, Conrad evidently owns $100-500K of RLSFX.

I'm guessing many folks left RPHYX (I am also currently a shareholder) because one could do better in treasuries over the past year or so.

Ah, there was a lot of talk about that, but it didn't happen. I believe RPHYX outperformed treasuries - again in 2023. I'm also a share holder in RPHYX, but I did 'blink' earlier in the year and cut my holding in half to include 1 year treasuries as they were increasing.

Yup.
At the end of 2022 (Dec. 29, 2022 issue date), one could get at auction a 52 week T-bill yielding 4.783% (price = 95.434833) over 364 days, or a 26 week T-bill, yielding 2.380% over 182 days (price = 97.674444) which comes out to 4.819% over 364 days with assumed constant rate compounding.
Data from Treasury Direct: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/auction-query/
In comparison, RPHYX returned 5.5628% between 12/29/22 and 12/28/23 (per M* chart). Even after accounting for state income taxes, this is still over 5%, measurably better than T-bills. RPHIX did even better.
There was the risk with RPHYX that rates might go down and an investor would wind up with less than with T-bills. There was also the risk that rates might go up or even remain stable and an investor might wind up with more.
Evaluating these risks and looking at expected return (expectation value), RPHYX looked like the better choice at the time. Though for those who wanted certainty and were willing to pay a relatively small cost for that, T-bills might have been attractive.

I've been buying 3-month treasuries for a year or so and have been was getting 4% at the start of the interval (took money out of RPHYX, in fact) and 5% more recently.
I'll stay with that strategy for a while.

FD thinks we’re all 25 years old and should therefore be positioned for the next 50 years.
(Try 25+25+25+3)
Would he tell his great grandma who’s depending on the money to see her through retirement to throw it all into the S&P?

RiverPark is known here for some of its subadvised funds (RPHIX, RSIIX) and those are in the news here. But the firm itself has had issues with turnovers & AUM losses.
M* on RLSFX
"Co-founder and co-chief investment officer Mitch Rubin departed the firm in November 2022 on the heels of weak performance across the firm’s equity strategies. Meanwhile, RiverPark’s assets under management has declined 35% since December 2020 as outflows across most of its products have been persistent in recent years. As of March 2023, the firm’s AUM was USD 2.4 billion, 70% of which was in its two subadvised funds, including its largest fund, RiverPark Short Term High Yield. According to CEO and co-founder Morty Schaja, the firm intends to draw upon the research resources of equity subadvisor Wedgewood, where the firm owns a roughly 2% minority interest. It will take some time to assess how this collaboration will work and what impact it may have.
Other attributes of the firm are mixed. Across the board, the firm’s mutual fund fees remain high, though that is in part a function of their comparatively small size. But Schaja has invested more than USD 1 million in five of the six funds RiverPark offers, and he has broadened ownership of the firm to include other employees, which often helps retain personnel. Indeed, the firm has shown stability in the investment analyst ranks."
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/rlsfx/parent

PFIX - Simplify Rate Hedge ETF
New Year brings new records. Looks like this ETF made an almost 50% distribution at the yearend.
https://twitter.com/syouth1/status/1742001236923015317
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PFIX/history?p=PFIX
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=PFIX&compare=_PFIX&id=p45804732157

[snip]
Does it seem like a high proportion of ETFs fail to last for more than 5 or 6 years?
Much greater rate of attrition than mutual funds ISTM. Might be wrong.
[snip]

You are not wrong. The attrition rate for ETFs has been high.
"As of Dec. 13, this year’s nearly 500 exchange-traded fund launches have already broken the record set in 2021 (461). The ETF universe is more expansive than ever: Investors can choose from 3,487 ETFs.
There have been 5,067 ETFs brought to market since SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY launched in 1993.
This means 31% of them have since closed."
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/best-worst-new-etfs-2023

"Simple" question: what do you think will generate better results for Joe average investor during his lifetime...holding up to 5 funds and hardly trading, or using 10+ holdings with more trading?
[snip]

Let's not conflate trading with the number of funds an investor holds.
They're two different topics.
There has been ample research indicating investors who trade frequently often fare poorly.
You may be familiar with the seminal paper titled “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” by Brad Barber and Terrance Odean.
Your prior post stated:
"I could never understand why anyone has more than 7-8 funds (they are usually the ones who say, there is no right number). You go over 10 funds and you are over-diversified. What usually happens with over 10 funds? you are not sure and/or you have owned lagging categories for years. You already know that the SP500 beat most funds over 15-20 years so why do you own so many funds? This was my initial start (1995-2000) investing 90+% in VG Total index and the rest in VG growth."
Regardless of your opinion, there isn't an arbitrary number of funds which is optimal for every investor's unique circumstances. A young investor who is risk tolerant and has many years until retirement can reasonably have only a single fund in their portfolio (e.g., Total World Stock Index fund or target-date fund) if they so choose. Many Bogleheads are fond of a three-fund portfolio often comprised of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX), Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund (VTIAX), and Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund (VBTLX). This is a good strategy but it may not be right for everyone. Investors with multiple accounts should probably consider fund availability, optimum asset location, tax consequences, risk tolerance, and personal preferences when constructing their portfolios. These considerations can lead to having more funds than you prescribe. Bottom line - there isn't a one-size-fits-all solution.
The S&P 500 performed very well over the trailing 10-year and 15-year periods.
It was a very different story during the "Lost Decade" (2000-2009) when the S&P 500 basically went nowhere.
Would the average investor with a large S&P 500 position have the fortitude to stick with this investment
during the "Lost Decade" or would they have sold before the S&P 500 recovery started?
Wouldn't it have been beneficial to also include foreign stocks and/or investment-grade bonds in the portfolio?

Interesting that no ETFs appear on that comprehensive list @msf listed. That’s what I was searching the web for. I did stumble on 4 or 5 market neutral ETFs that had already closed. And 2 or 3 that were still around.
Does it seem like a high proportion of ETFs fail to last for more than 5 or 6 years? Much greater rate of attrition than mutual funds ISTM. Might be wrong.
GAMNX -16% in 2022 // +39% in 2023. Yup. Sounds market neutral. :)

"Simple" question: what do you think will generate better results for Joe average investor during his lifetime...holding up to 5 funds and hardly trading, or using 10+ holdings with more trading?
Investing is never about emotions and feelings, it's all about numbers.
What I do has nothing to do with the above question and why I didn't mention it, but it's amazing how posters would not deal with the above.
Roy, PRWCX is one of these "exceptions to the rule" where a manager can be great for the long term. I have been recommending it as one of the best "moderate"(not a typical one) allocation funds for over 10 years.

+1. @Roy.
*************
Well, yes, I might get cut, but it won't be because I'm trying to catch the knife in mid-air. Just trying to keep things simple. Wifey prefers that I continue to move more from tax-sheltered to taxable. Not so many rules and hoops to jump through, after I'm gone. THAT will be a SLOW process, though. As much as you can depend upon anything, it looks like neither of us is going anywhere permanently for several years, anyhow. (Next birthday= 70. Hers will be age 51.)