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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    "Simple" question: what do you think will generate better results for Joe average investor during his lifetime...holding up to 5 funds and hardly trading, or using 10+ holdings with more trading?
    Investing is never about emotions and feelings, it's all about numbers.
    What I do has nothing to do with the above question and why I didn't mention it, but it's amazing how posters would not deal with the above.
    Roy, PRWCX is one of these "exceptions to the rule" where a manager can be great for the long term. I have been recommending it as one of the best "moderate"(not a typical one) allocation funds for over 10 years.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    +1. @Roy.
    *************
    Well, yes, I might get cut, but it won't be because I'm trying to catch the knife in mid-air. Just trying to keep things simple. Wifey prefers that I continue to move more from tax-sheltered to taxable. Not so many rules and hoops to jump through, after I'm gone. THAT will be a SLOW process, though. As much as you can depend upon anything, it looks like neither of us is going anywhere permanently for several years, anyhow. (Next birthday= 70. Hers will be age 51.)
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    Before we happened into PRWCX toward the end of 2006, we were invested directly through 8 funds and 4 different fund companies which covered LCG, LCV, SCG, SCV, real-estate and a couple bond funds. I knew nothing about DG at the time other than he and Arricale had been on the job for less than 6 months. We were 43 & 39 years old but it was very apparent my wife had no interest being involved in our investments, so I was looking to simplify in case something ever happened to me. Most advisors would never have recommended PRWCX by itself for investors our age. But, it has worked for us along with our personal high savings rate.
    6 years ago we met with a CFP we know who helps advise >$10 billion at the firm he works for and he told us not to change a thing, as we were well on our way to meeting our retirement goals and that his annual advisory fee could not be justified to take over our accounts.
    I won't recommend others investing as we have largely chosen to in the last 17 years, but it has worked for us. At ages 60 & 56 current Monte Carlo simulations have us at 99% success rates if we both retire today.
    We've been fortunate to work our whole adult lives, live modestly, and to be vigilant about saving and investing which has also allowed us to give regularly to charitable organizations and individuals in need. For all this I take little credit other than to thank God for the opportunities we've been afforded and been able to take advantage of.
    Wishing all a wonderful, peaceful and healthy 2024. I don't contribute much to this site, but have learned so much....thank you.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Crash- Surely this thread must hold the all-time MFO record for the longest time in continuous activity, and likely a number of other things too: for instance, the number of participating MFO members:
    AndyJ December 2023
    Art May 2022
    BaluBalu December 2023
    Baseball_Fan December 2023
    bee December 2022
    BennyB January 2023
    BenWP December 2023
    carew388 July 2023
    catch22 July 2023
    chang July 2023
    Crash December 2023
    davfor October 2022
    DavidF January 2023
    davidrmoran December 2023
    davidsherman October 2023
    Dennis Baran August 2023
    Derf November 2023
    Devo June 2023
    dtconroe April 2023
    finder September 2022
    fred495 March 2022
    golub1 July 2023
    hank December 2023
    JD_co November 2023
    johnN November 2023
    JonGaltIII May 2022
    Junkster September 2023
    larryB September 2022
    Level5 November 2023
    lynnbolin2021 May 2022
    Mark August 2023
    MikeM December 2023
    MikeW August 2023
    Mona November 2023
    Observant1 12:51PM
    Old_Joe December 2023
    PopTart December 2023
    PRESSmUP December 2023
    Puddnhead November 2023
    racqueteer November 2023
    rforno December 2023
    Roy February 2023
    sma3 November 2023
    stayCalm December 2022
    Sven December 2023
    Tarwheel December 2023
    WABAC December 2023
    wxman123 September 2022
    yogibearbull July 2023
    Congratulations!!
    :) :) :)
  • Small Caps
    Among the SC funds that I track, FDSCX, Fidelity Small Cap Selector, is among the leaders for every time period going out 15 years. It’s been a steady, reliable performer — unusual for SC funds, which tend to be streaky. I prefer SC blend funds for that reason.
  • M* basic fund screener discontinued

    - @msf said, ”For example, it lists "market neutral". That hasn't been around since April 2021”
    I tried to dig up a list of market neutral equity funds (across the internet) the other day to look over. Darned hard to find any. Maybe they’ve gone ouf of fashion?
    Somewhat the opposite. My next sentence was: "[The basic M* screener] doesn't offer the replacement categories: equity market-neutral, event-driven, and relative value arbitrage."
    M* found the market neutral category large enough with enough variation among its funds to divide it into three different categories. The funds that M* now classifies as equity market-neutral are:
    1. QMNIX / QMNNX / QMNRX
    2. COGIX / COGMX
    3. CAPOX
    4. BDMAX / BDMCX / BDMIX / BGCKX
    5. DECMX / DECIX
    6. GAMNX / QQMNX
    7. GONIX
    8. GUMAX / GUMCX / GUMNX / GUMPX
    9. JMNAX / JMNCX / JMNSX
    10. MNWAX / MNWBX / MNWCX / MNWIX / MNWRX / MNWSX / MNWTX / MNWUX / MNWZX
    11. OTTRX / OTCRX
    12. PTFAX / PFATX
    13. SMNAX / SMNIX
    14. VMNIX / VMNFX
    15. CBHAX / CBHCX / CBHIX / CBHMX
    Since this is a new category, you can't use the basic screener to find them. But you can use the M* basic screener (via AOL) to see that the Communications category is smaller, with just 30 share classes. Unfortunately, that version of the M* basic fund screener doesn't tell you what the funds are - no names or tickers. Good for counting the number of funds in older categories, but not especially useful for finding funds.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    This thread has gone in an interesting direction.
    I have been trying to consolidate the IRA to simplify it in case of the sort of stuff that seems more likely to happen as I get older. But I need more help from Mr. Market to get out of some positions. :).
    I have temporarily consolidated the taxable by getting rid of a lot of Vanguard indexes. At the time I sold I decided that I would sit out the market until the next budget standoff and the recovery from holidaze hangovers sets in. Time will tell if I missed out.
    I don't mind small positions for the taxable. If they can be left alone, they can turn out alright. And it is my hope to leave them alone. I don't find that they need a lot thinking about, or managing. I do sort of keep an eye on them the way I keep an eye on the trees I have planted.
    I don't feel the need to buy the 500. I own tech funds instead. They have been the main driver of growth in that index for many years. But why multiple tech funds? They each do something different. So I think of them as a basket. The techs are FSCSX, TDV, and CSGZX.
    I've pretty much stopped paying attention to Lipper and M* labels. The weighting box is still somewhat useful. More useful still are MFO premium and the overlap tool at etfrc.com. So I'm not concerned that I have too much mid cap value because I own PEY and SYLD--two different theses resulting in very little overlap. It is the theses that I am buying. That the weights ends up where they do is not really a factor in my decision to buy.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    The right number of funds is what you feel comfortable with.
    I have 12 individual stocks, 10 CEFs, 5 ETFs, and 6 Mutual funds...up 9% in 2023.
  • M* basic fund screener discontinued
    Categories are another imperfect subject. While SP500 is LC blend, managed/flexible funds are not. I stopped paying attention to M* a long time ago, especially when I'm looking for unique funds.
    A true story: several months ago, my screener found a fund not available. I contacted the fund manager and president of sales and asked if they could bring it to my brokerage. They called me back within 2 days and said YES, but I must invest at least $500K. I told them I would double it. Within 2 weeks they made it happen. I keep getting from them a weekly market summary. I love dealing with small companies with small AUM.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    “ … there is plenty of research to prove that indexes and less trading = better performance.”
    HA - So you’re going to change the topic now? I’ll make three observations:
    - First, I agree that indexes have outperformed active management for a long time.
    - Second, I agree that less trading benefits performance and more trading usually hurts it.
    - Third, as a percentage of board posts, FD ranks right up there in terms of trades. Around 10% of all his posts mention buys or sells (a fair estimate I think). The difference between FD and most here is that his trades are always referenced in the past - sometimes having occured weeks or months earlier. And, from what I can tell, those posts never mention specific funds,
    ”Why stop at 15? 30 must be better”
    First, you’re insinuating here that someone finds 10 or 15 holdings “better.” It’s not about “better.” It’s about someone’s overall approach to investing. If 5 serves your portfolio positioning, that’s fine. At one time I carried 15-20 holdings, including small allocations to some pretty speculative mining stocks. Due mainly to age, I’ve dumped those small positions and consolidated into a CEF that provides exposure to them with less risk. And, for simplicity’s sake, I’m always evaluating the possibility / desirability of consolidating further.
    You might recall @Old_Skeet who used to post here. He wrote a nice weekly summary of his portfolio and his trades. Sometimes he published the entire portfolio. Often it had 30 or more holdings. That’s what fit his needs. Not my cup of tea or yours, but it worked for him.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    The number of accounts is an excuse. I have 10 accounts(2 brokerages, each with Roth, Rollover for my wife and me + joint/taxable account), but still only 2 funds. Yes, I buy one fund for several accounts. When I used to have 401K, it was usually all in SP500 or US tot index. I used my brokerage accounts for the rest. These 401k choices were mostly indexes anyway.
    2 giants Buffett and Bogle have been promoting 1 to 3 funds and indexes. I understand if someone wants others, 5-7 funds are plenty enough.
    Sure, you can do well with 15 funds (or refuse to admit it), but that is the minority, it's just more complicated and there is plenty of research to prove that indexes and less trading = better performance.
    Why stop at 15? 30 must be better.
  • M* basic fund screener discontinued
    - I looked at M*’s stock price and it’s risen this year - to my surprise. I’m thinking eventually AI is going to take a bite out of their income. You should be able to pull up all the info. they provide - and even more - tailored to your specific needs using AI. Yes, I’m sure they will use AI themselves to provide better service. But, just my guess, that eventually it will ding their viewership and profits.
    - Stumbled across a Schwab page on a fund I was looking at recently. Appears to be an excellent detailed source of data.
    - @msf said, ”For example, it lists "market neutral". That hasn't been around since April 2021”
    I tried to dig up a list of market neutral equity funds (across the internet) the other day to look over. Darned hard to find any. Maybe they’ve gone ouf of fashion? Gosh - couldn’t have been more than 20-25 years ago that I owned one.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    "Further, someone with 3 different accounts (taxable, Roth, Traditional IRA) might find reasons to hold more funds than someone with just one type of account."

    Exactly!
    It may be difficult or potentially counter-productive for investors with multiple account types
    (e.g., 401K, traditional IRA, Roth IRA, taxable, HSA, 529) to hold the "right number" of funds
    regardless of what some self-proclaimed experts state. Having too many funds can be detrimental
    (e.g., diworsification, increased portfolio maintenance), but there isn't an arbitrary number of funds
    which is optimal for every investor's unique situation.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    You guys have whetted my appetite on the subject of “right number” of funds. My simple math tells me that 10 funds, each averaging 10% a year, should produce the same return as 5 funds, each averaging 10% a year - or one fund for that matter. Further, someone with 3 different accounts (taxable, Roth, Traditional IRA) might find reasons to hold more funds than someone with just one type of account.
    I don’t know about “research”? Everybody and his brother on the internet seems to have an opinion on this. But for starters I found this linked article interesting. The author suggests up to 12 funds might be the “right” number for long-time investors with lots of accumulated wealth, while 6 might be a better number for younger / newer investors, This isn’t likely to change my mind, or Mike’s or FD’s or anyone else who’s weighed in. Just something to think about / discuss if so inclined.
  • M* basic fund screener discontinued
    This still works but not enough criteria(https://screen.morningstar.com/fundselectoraol.html)
    Thanks!
    Worth noting is that M* hasn't maintained its basic screener (its "official" one as well as this one) for years. This can be seen in its selection of fund categories.
    For example, it lists "market neutral". That hasn't been around since April 2021, so a search on this category turns up empty. And it doesn't offer the replacement categories: equity market-neutral, event-driven, and relative value arbitrage.
    For 93.567+% of investors, this doesn't matter. Or more accurately, it might matter only if you're searching for one of the new categories. If a category was merged into an older existing one (e.g. long-short credit into nontraditional bond), you'll still find funds, but under a different category.
    Here are the category changes:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/introducing-new-alternative-morningstar-categories
  • Small Caps
    Thanks for the feedback @raqueteer. hard to find a consistently strong performing fund in the small cap space if you look at the 1 3 5 and 10 year time frames that also has good downside protection. Large cap has so strongly outperformed small cap over last ten years. Best example I have found that meets these attributes is PKSAX. AVUV and CALF look interesting.
  • M* basic fund screener discontinued
    Fidelity screener should be good for 93.567+% of investors. Schwab has more funds, let's give it 95.25%. Both have many criteria to select from. That looks like a good solution for a little imperfection.
    If I can't buy a fund at Schwab or Fidelity I don't care because I'm not opening other accounts.
    Others who look for perfection may have to pay a fee.
    This still works but not enough criteria(https://screen.morningstar.com/fundselectoraol.html)
    MFO is pretty good (https://www.member.mfopremium.com/quicksearch/)
  • Navigating the new 529 to Roth rollover (Secure Act 2.0) 2024 begin year.
    A couple of somewhat obvious questions come to mind:
    - What defines a "plan" (for the 15 year rule requirement)? "It is unclear whether this 15-year period restarts when there is a beneficiary change", according to one site. Another suggests that "changing designated beneficiaries ... will likely restart that 15-year clock."
    https://www.daypitney.com/insights/publications/2023/06/fog4-secure-2-0-permits-rollovers-529-plans-roth-iras/
    https://www.savingforcollege.com/article/roll-over-529-plan-funds-to-a-roth-ira
    Another wrinkle to this question: what happens when you roll over the 529 plan from one state to another? With a Roth-to-Roth rollover, the Roth clocks don't restart. But this is a new rule and involves a 529-to-Roth rollover.
    - Will your state follow the federal rules? Or will it tax the 529 rollover as a distribution?
    While no one is sure which states will play along with federal rules and which ones will choose to tax 529 to Roth IRA rollovers, California is one state that seems likely to levy income taxes on these rollovers. This is based on the fact the state hasn't updated their rules to match federal laws regarding 529 plans, including ones built on student loans and using 529 plan funds for private K-12 tuition.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertfarrington/2023/11/21/warning-ability-to-convert-529-funds-to-roth-ira-could-be-problematic/?sh=5accc8a04abc.
    Maybe there's something more definitive. These are just questions, not answers.
  • M* basic fund screener discontinued
    Why use M* screener at all when Fidelity is a robust one, includes ETFs, and free?
    Because Fidelity's excludes funds that Fidelity doesn't carry.
    For example, in the global small/mid M* category, the Fidelity screener returns 74 OEFs (including closed and leveraged funds) and 15 ETFs; Portfolio Visualizer's screener returns 138 OEFs (same as M* Investor's screener), 14 ETFs, and 7 CEFs. Figures are for share classes, not distinct funds.
    (FYI the ETF it misses is FIXT, an ETF that M* rates gold at the top of the page, but silver in the text that says it was downgraded.)
    Part of the difference is that Fidelity doesn't sell all share classes of funds, e.g. AGCVX (investor class shares) are NTF at Schwab but not sold at Fidelity, so they don't show up in the screener. Since Fidelity does sell the institutional shares AGCSX (albeit w/TF and $5M min), at least the fund shows up in its screener.
    Other funds are completely missing, e.g. TSYNX. This is available even at Vanguard NTF. Not at Fidelity, so not reported by the screener. Not recommending it, just observing that its launch was written up at MFO in 2018.