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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    @yogibearbull
    Thanks!
    I realize that multiple PV backtests can be executed for funds >10 yr. old by changing start / end dates.
    This is suboptimal when compared to running a single backtest from inception date
    to prior month end (especially for older funds).
    It's interesting that you were able to obtain 20 yr. period PV results for these two portfolios.
    Seems like there may be some bugs in the new PV!
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    @Observant, new limitation is for 10 years. But you have to change both the start and end dates to capture the older 10-yr periods. Some periods > 10 years do slip by randomly, but I haven't figured out any pattern.
    For example, these old 20-year periods ran,
    5/1/1994 - 4/30/2014 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=5XAbTVqb4yt0BQuvbe9O3F
    5/1/1990 - 4/30/2010 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=25WEYneHHRZLPu7sE6csqE
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    Just ran a Portfolio Backtest.
    It appears that all prior metrics / data are still available.
    The web page that lists backtest results is now very cluttered.
    In the "old" Portfolio Visualizer, some backtest data was accessed via provided links.
    I prefer that design as it minimizes clutter.
    A HUGE negative development (or possibly a software bug?) is that Portfolio Visualizer
    now only allows backtests for 10 yr. periods!
    I went to Customize Data >>> Settings and modified Time Period, Start Year, and First Month.
    Settings were modified to coincide with the first full month of operation for the newest fund (>30 yr. old).
    These changes had no effect as the rendered results just showed the latest 10 yr. period.
    Forget about performing a single backtest from inception date to end of prior month for funds that are >10 yr. old!
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    @FD1000
    Thanks. I’ve saved the link to penfed. Just wondered … Do they have 24-hour live phone support? Easy to call? How well do they treat clients who call with inquiries, issues, etc?
    I don’t think the live support at Elan is as good as it was a few years ago. I had a Citibank MC up until about 2005. Not only was the support lacking, but back then they besieged you with promotions. Can’t remember the exact nature of these. But it was annoying to call in. There may have been some “hard-sell” tactics by the phone reps trying to sell you unwanted services. Can’t remember the details. But that was the main reason I moved to Elan.
    I appreciate that many people are reaping profits in the form of cash back, bonuses, travel points, etc. Never been my goal. Just good service w/o pressure tactics is what I’ve always cared about. And, of course, I pay balance off at the end of each cycle.
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    One PV LOOPHOLE is that the 10-year periods don't have to be recent, so free PV runs can be made for successive 10-year periods. Following are the PV runs for Bengen-type 4% withdrawals with annual COLA for 3 10-yr periods covering 30 years. Of course, some additional calculations will be needed to consolidate the data for straight 30 years.
    5/1/1994 - 4/30/2004, PV Run 1 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3v2yQJiyMm7H7MVQ6KQQQM
    5/1/2004 - 4/30/2014, PV Run 2 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=41iTQ6EPGl0IjDgu80T37C
    5/1/2014 - 4/30/2024, PV Run 3 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=4DBz45FjX7qA3Lh3nfENnz
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I don't know what to tell you @BaluBalu.
    I just trialed a purchase now to make sure I'm not crazy. I have $19 in one of my sweep accounts, in this case a Roth IRA but I've done it numerous times in my traditional. I placed a limit order to buy an existing stock I own. It went through fine. I tried it again to buy a stock I don't currently own, and it also went through fine. Both orders were for over a 1000 bucks. (I cancelled both orders after). I don't have any special settings.
  • 100 Year Certificate of Deposit
    An online bank with "impact" goals that started only in 2022 offering 100-yr CD, 4.75% fixed, as a publicity stunt - 10-yr interest penalty for early withdrawals. Alternatives? 30-yr Treasury bond or zero.
    "We had not yet opened for deposits in 2022, but have amassed over $22 million in the first quarter of 2023, with roughly a third of this coming from businesses, and two-thirds from consumers."
    https://walden-mutual-public.s3.amazonaws.com/WaldenMutual_AnnualReport_23-05.13.2023.pdf
  • 100 Year Certificate of Deposit
    A 100 year Certificate of Deposit is being offered by a mutual bank in New Hampshire. Between $1,000 and $150,000 can be invested.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/100-cd-brings-meaning-concept-192127054.html
  • CFTC Seeks to Clarify Boundaries Between Gambling and Financial Markets / WSJ
    ”Regulators advanced a plan to ban derivatives contracts based on political elections, athletic competitions and awards contests, in a bid to clarify the boundaries between gambling and financial markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission voted Friday to propose a new regulation aimed at regulating event contracts, a small but fast-growing part of the markets in which investors can bet on the outcome of events. CFTC commissioners voted 3-2 to release the proposed regulation for public review, with the agency's three Democratic commissioners voting in favor and its two Republicans dissenting. The proposal won't take effect until commissioners approve a final version, a vote that is likely many months away.”
    Excerpted from The Wall Street Journal / May 10, 2024
    Subscription May Be Required https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/cftc-wants-to-ban-trades-tied-to-elections-sports-and-awards-contests-3d6fb3c6?st=selp4m3bjclxkdu&reflink=article_copyURL_share
  • Return Stacked® US Stocks & Mgd Futs ETF RSST
    Microsoft’s AI / Chat gpt offered up these (among other) observations. I’ve edited them a bit for brevity.
    “The Return Stacked® U.S. Stocks & Managed Futures ETF (RSST) aims for long-term capital appreciation by investing in two complementary strategies: (1) U.S. Equity Strategy: This part of the fund seeks exposure to U.S. stocks. For every $1 invested, the fund aims to provide $1 of exposure to its U.S. equity strategy. (2) Managed Futures Strategy: The fund also invests in managed futures contracts. Again, for every $1 invested, it aims to provide $1 of exposure to its managed futures strategy.
    Risk Factors:
    Derivatives Risk: The use of derivatives (such as futures contracts) may carry more risk than other investments.
    Commodity Risk: Investing in physical commodities can be extremely volatile.
    Commodity-Linked Derivatives Tax Risk: Changes in legislation or regulations may affect the tax treatment of commodity-linked derivative instruments.
    Foreign and Emerging Markets Risk
    Leverage Risk: The fund uses leverage to stack the total return of its holdings in the U.S. equity strategy and managed futures strategy together.”

    -
    Morningstar assigns RSST a “Negative” rating. While I own 1 or 2 of their “Neutral” rated funds, I’d probably steer clear of any having their rare Negative grade.
    Morningstar cites high fees (which don’t look excessive to me) and high manager turnover along with a lack of manager experience operating this fund (which is apparently quite new). M* seems to think the methodology used (process) is suspect and cites momentum investing as one part of the process,
    Lipper apparently doesn’t yet have enough data to rate RSST
  • The end of Portfolio Visualizer as we knew it
    Well, the PV data input interface has changed, and the result format has changed, but on a quick look, almost all of the old free features are still there. The results are still linkable. I think that if one spends 30 minutes to 1 hour, one can get up to speed on this revised PV.
    Sample PV Run Link for PRWCX, VWELX, FMSDX with benchmark VFINX,
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=2BL7f8AglyNvzQ6Y3UUGtf
    I had PV Guide/Pointers that I will be revising soon.
  • Wagon Mutual Fund WAGNX
    Limited availability for now, mainly Vanguard.
    Per the Pabrai Wagons Fund December 31, 2023 Semi-annual report:
    "The Fund’s investments reflect 4 core allocations, which account for 76% of the
    portfolio:
    1. Turkish workhorses, like Coca-Cola Icecek (a global coke bottler based in Turkey that operates in 11 countries), Anadolu Efes (Turkey’s biggest beer brand), and TAV Havalimanlari Holdings (a Turkish airport operator that operates airports in 8 countries).
    2. U.S. Coal, which includes thermal and metallurgical coal plays like Consol Energy, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Warrior Met Coal, and Arch Resources.
    3. U.S. Car Dealerships, including Asbury Automotive and AutoNation.
    4. North America/Europe Tech, including Microsoft, Amazon, Constellation Software, Topicus and Tiny.
    A common theme among the businesses in all 4 groups is the exceptionally high quality of their underlying franchises. In addition, the first 3 buckets (Turkey, Coal, Car Dealerships) represent corners of the market that are deeply out of favor. The unloved status of theseindustries has resulted in their businesses being seriously mispriced by the market. We love the unloved and are excited to “circle the wagons” around these 3 buckets."
  • Month Ending May MFO Ratings Posted!
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site through April, which includes month to date performance through Friday, 17 May.
  • "It Could Happen To You." Make you laugh. Schwab.
    In theory, you could add some money and subsequently pull it out as an "excess contribution". I would not suggest that without a lot more research. The IRS frowns on maneuvers done to circumvent rules. And even if you could do this, you'd need to check the exact mechanics and timing. Also, it could trigger a requirement that you file an 8606 form every year because you'll have added a non-deductible contribution. (Though pulling the money out might save you.)
    Bottom line: you might be able to make a temporary contribution, but the complexities and risk don't seem to make it worthwhile to earn a couple extra pennies interest.
    Since you have posted the size of the account ($11K), I can now illustrate how disclosing just a little information may reveal more than intended. People should be careful about posting any dollar amounts. (Percentages are usually okay since they don't say anything about the size of accounts.)
    Schwab's cash account (or bank sweep) pays 0.45% APY Assuming daily compounding and a 365 day calendar, that's 0.00123%/day.
    An account of $10,568 would earn 13¢ in a day at this rate. An account less than $11,381 would earn less than 14¢. So without being told that the account size was $11K, we already knew that the IRA cash transferred in amounted to between $10,568 and $11,381.
  • WealthTrack Show
    Hi @hank,
    Thanks for keeping score here.
    You even referenced a @Ted link.
    headlines to come:
    Upcoming earning will animalize market spirits... roaring kitty leans in!
    Hey Honey, does this inflation makes my 401k look bigger?
    Leuthold...lights on... nobodies home
    Banks Embrace Sweeping Reforms by prohibiting the use of First or Republic in their name!
  • "It Could Happen To You." Make you laugh. Schwab.
    @Crash
    But there's a wall around wifey's Trad IRA.
    What does this mean?
    Hello, @catch22.
    There are a few angles going on. Neither of us has any earned income. Not officially, I mean. I don't think we are even eligible to put anything more into either of our Trad. IRAs. Years ago, you were recommending that we convert to Roths. We didn't, and it's worked out better for us.
    So... It's too early to withdraw anything from wifey's IRA without a penalty. She's not 59 and a half, yet. And we can't ADD, either. Neither can we add to my own IRA. No earned income. Which is why we created the taxable trading account.
    Here at MFO, we religiously don't speak in terms of raw dollar amounts. That's a good idea. So, in practical terms, we have erected our OWN wall around wifey's IRA, because it's premature to make withdrawals, and also because the whole thing is worth just a hair more than $11k. Kinda useless to be rearranging and "diworsifying," while dealing with only that much money.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu. I only have IRA accounts at Schwab, so yes.
    BTW, in 10 days, stocks and ETPs settle T+1.
    Yes, I remember that conversation. I'm assuming that means if I buy something, I have to put in a MM to sweep transfer by the next day... or the same day if I'm paying attention. Schwab has always sent me email warnings if I forget to transfer in the past. Should be interesting.
  • "It Could Happen To You." Make you laugh. Schwab.
    Yes, that should work fine. But it also wouldn't hurt to diversify that IRA a bit by funding the MMKT with a reasonable amount. We use the SNSXX Treasury MMKT. Little point in having a MMKT acct with only $1.00 in it.