I don't know if I would sleep well with 10>% in a fund. At one time that may have occurred. Only T bills & notes in that 10% or higher range as of late.
Happy New Year to All, Derf
P.S. @hank
How did you make
out with Draft Kings.
Last I saw up 74% on the year !

@Derf. As I’ve remarked before, the last (DKNG) buy was at around $10 early in the year and I dumped it for a $3 - $4 p/s gain in only a few weeks. (Never could stand success.) Current price: $35
I have no desire to own any gaming stock - especially this one. Have commented elsewhere on the extent these buzzards now go to steal from lure-in unsuspecting lower income folks and empty their pockets (with assorted bells & whistles under the guise of “gaming”) . They’ve expanded far beyond being a simple way to put a $5 bet on your favorite team. Hell - I now believe this type of predatory practice should be outlawed.
It’s your money @Derf - But 10% in a single fund does not strike me as outrageous. Of course it depends on which fund. From the early 70s until mid 90s I was 100% in a good diversified global equity fund from Templeton (later Franklin/Templeton). In the early going when you’re DCA ‘ng in it’s probably an OK approach.

Hi @MikeM et al You're welcome. The graphic link I use goes to Barcharts and doesn't include distributions. Generally, this is not a large problem to still allow for a quick and dirty look at an etf sector performance. The longer the time frame, and/or larger distributions begins to NOT provide correct information for 'total return'. An example especially shows in the fixed income areas or etf's that may provide high dividend rates.
An example: The Barcharts indicates a 52 week gain of 4.3%. This works as an 'almost' YTD for this last trading week of the year; BUT the real YTD is 9.4% from both M* and Stockcharts, which include the total returns with distributions. One may always go to the source (issuer) of the etf for correct return data.
An example of smaller total distribution amounts is for the QQQ etf. M* and Stockcharts indicate a total return for 2023 of 54.9%, and Invesco (QQQ) indicates 54.84% YTD, while the Barcharts link indicates 53.7% YTD.
However, the Barcharts link I use still offers the best broad range of etf performances that I am aware of. And YES, we may all look back upon 2023 and wonder why didn't I/we invest in that sector. :)
I will add a note in future posts.

Changes under 10% have minimal effect, and under 5% are meaningless.

That's my approach to investing/allocations as well. For me, generally anything under 10% is either a starter position, placeholder, or a speculative thing -- I don't expect anything under 10% to move the needle much either way unless it's levered (which I don't use anyway).

I have been trading a big % since 2000 of at least 20% until retirement.
Since retirement in 2018 and only 2-3 funds (they are not at equal %), every trade is at least 30%, and most are at 40-50%. Changes under 10% have minimal effect, and under 5% are meaningless.

This article covers this area quite well; regarding excess funds that may not be used for education. If you find additional information, please link.
Article link.
Remain curious,
Catch

PREVIEW & REVIEW (consolidated). 2023 was a bad year for BIOTECH, but there were several M&A deals. The equal weight XBI outperformed the market-cap weight IBB. Pause in rate hikes, and prospects for rate cuts, helps companies that rely on debt. 2024 should be a better year for biotech.
Best INCOME investments for 2024. Bonds came through in 2023 beating their recent bear market. Who knew that Treasuries could move like this. Bond yields are higher and more normal. Cash remains appealing too. Dividend stocks lagged other stocks, but offer both current-dividends and dividend-growth. In the list below, fund types OEFs, ETFs and CEFs are mixed.
US Dividend Stocks – VYM, SCHD, NOBL
Foreign Dividend Stocks – IDV, SCHY, IEMG
Energy Pipelines – AMLP, KYN, SMLPX
Utilities – XLU, UTG, NEE
Telecoms – T, TMUS, VZ
Convertibles – CWB, ICVT
Real Estate – VNQ, RQI
MBS – MBB, VMBS, DLTNX
HY – HYG, TUHYX, JQC
Preferreds – PFF, JPC, FPEI
Munis – VWITX, NEA, MUB
Treasuries – SHY, TLT, TIP
FUNDS. Many investors like to buy TREASURIES at Auctions at Treasury Direct (TD; a site that isn’t very user-friendly). One has to own these to maturity at TD, or move them out of TD to brokerages for trading. But Treasuries can also be bought at major brokerages at Auctions or in the secondary market (with bid-ask spreads) with no/little commissions. Treasury funds can be used by those who don’t want to deal with individual Treasury purchases. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
EXTRA, FUNDS. 2023 had several good bond ETF launches. A total of 500 ETFs were launched and 370 were active ETFs; there are now 1,353 active ETFs with $500 billion AUM. Many active ETFs have lower ERs than their OEF cousins. Mentioned are active multisector BINC, value TCAF, ETF of ETFs DFAW. The fee wars continued with indexed SCYB, BEMB, etc. The worst ETF offerings were AIYY, BITX, etc.
RETIREMENT. SECURE 2.0 has allowed several changes for 401k/403b, but plans have been slow to adopt OPTIONAL changes – employer contribution matching for student loan payments, emergency funds within 401k/403b (PLESAs), etc. This may be because the employers are focusing now on several MANDATORY changes for catchup provisions, auto-enrollments, RMDs, etc. (Also, because 401k/403b regulations have become very complicated)
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/546/barron-january-1-2024-2
https://www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV

Portfolio X-ray is still working for me. The screener was a different tool. I remember it being rather clumsy. Or maybe I used it clumsily.

Morningstar/MORN IPO was in 2005; +47.6% annualized growth since inception. Founder/Chairman Joseph Mansueto is a Chicago-area billionaire. He is in lots of local news - philanthropy, real estate, etc.
People who invested just the annual subscriptions for M* Premium or M* Investor into MORN would be rich.

And now the billionaire wants to take away free portfolio x-ray to make more billions?

Morningstar/MORN IPO was in 2005; +47.6% annualized growth since inception. Founder/Chairman Joseph Mansueto is a Chicago-area billionaire. He is in lots of local news - philanthropy, real estate, etc.
People who invested just the annual subscriptions for M* Premium or M* Investor into MORN would be rich.

And now the billionaire wants to take away free portfolio x-ray to make more billions?

The graphic is set for the 5 days ending December 29, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
NOTE: select the 52 week performance column to obtain a 'near' YTD (2023) return for the categories.
ADD an etf performance of your choosing, if you desire.
Remain curious,
Catch

Morningstar/MORN IPO was in 2005; +47.6% annualized growth since inception. Founder/Chairman Joseph Mansueto is a Chicago-area billionaire. He is in lots of local news - philanthropy, real estate, etc.
People who invested just the annual subscriptions for M* Premium or M* Investor into MORN would be rich.

The Week in Charts (12/27/23)
Put these charts on your wall. Topics:
0:00 Intro
00:23 Overbought! Oversold!
01:08 Credit Card Rates & Mortgage Rates
01:55 Fed Policy & Stock Market Returns
03:30 Mortgage Rates & Home Prices
04:20 The Stock Market Is Not the Economy
05:20 Bear Market Bottoms
06:39 Volatility is Mean-Reverting at Extremes
07:36 Markets Don't Follow a Normal Distribution
09:35 Bank Failures and Financial Crises
10:33 Increasing Concentration
11:59 What Happened Last Year = What Will Happen Next Year?
12:47 Cars Are Not Appreciating Assets
13:43 Past Performance = Future Results?
14:54 Just Buy What You Know?
15:54 Shorting Stocks Based on Valuation
17:07 Irrational Investors
18:38 Streaks
19:41 Profits Matter ... Eventually
20:41 The Workers Came Back
21:42 Bonds Have Risk
23:23 Buying a Stock Based on a Meme
24:34 Supply/Demand Imbalances
25:20 Makes Changes to Your Portfolio Based on Headlines
26:26 Rising National Debt
28:06 Big Returns, Big Drawdowns
28:59 Central Planning vs. Capitalism
29:53 Wall Street Predictions
31:10 Why You Need to Invest
32:21 There Is No Impossible in Markets
Video
Blog

Your pie charts seem to confirm my view that high foreign investments have hurt its returns. TRPBX’s foreign holdings are much higher than FBALX. I don’t shun foreign investments, but will prefer to use dedicated foreign funds from now on, particularly since TRP’s foreign funds are so weak. After I sold TRPBX in my Roth IRA, I reinvested in FBALX plus my other TRP stock funds (TRMCX, TRVLX and PRDMX). Also put some of money in Fidelity’s FIVFX, which has outperformed TRP foreign funds. I’m planning to do a Roth conversion with part of the ARTKX shares in my regular IRA, and will put the remaining funds in that. I’m not comfortable holding 20% of the total assets of my Roth IRA in foreign stocks plus another 10-15% in foreign bonds, particularly given the higher risk and lower returns of foreign markets for many years.

I also tend to hold funds for quite some time, because funds have their own cycles and often when one fund underperforms another for some time, the pattern subsequently reverses.
Looking at the calendar year percentile rankings, one could say that it's not so much that TRPBX got worse as that it tended to be okay but not great. Or as rforno put it, "kind of 'meh'".
The fund had two bad years, 2021 and 2022 (and FBALX had an even worse record in 2022). These weigh heavily on its three year performance and five year performance. Those two years aside, its yearly performances were typically top third, just.
Even going back to your first decade with these funds (2003-2012), TRPBX barely outpaced FBALX, 8.23% to 8.21%.
I suspect that the fraction of equity that's invested abroad hasn't shifted much in decades. A fund may be permitted to make major allocation changes without ever taking advantage of that freedom. Not worth going back past 2017, though, because earlier annual reports don't seem to contain that information.
Sept 2023 (M*): 32% foreign (19.01%/59.60%)
May 2022 (annual report): 36% foreign (21%/59%)

May 2021 (annual report): 34% foreign (20%/59%)

May 2020 (annual report): 34% foreign (21%/62%)

May 2019 (annual report): 35% foreign (20%/57%)

May 2018 (annual report): 36% foreign (21%/58%)

The 2017 annual report notes that T. Rowe Price made several changes to what were then called the Personal Strategy Funds.

On October 1, 2016, we introduced three new underlying investment strategies to the Personal Strategy Funds. ... The changes include a new allocation to alternatives through a hedge fund-of-funds, as well as initiating an investment in the T. Rowe Price Dynamic Global Bond Fund and an equity index option strategy.

@msf
You are correct that TRPBX slightly outperformed FBALX by about 1.1% in 2022.
However, over the following time periods, FBALX outperformed TRPBX annualized by this much:
1 year, 6.7%
3 years, 4.1%
5 years, 4.2%
10 years, 2.2%
Put another way, $10,000 invested in FBALX ten years ago would be worth $23,262, compared to $17,743 with TRPBX. Since I had considerably more money invested in both funds over the past 10 years, the value of my FBALX holdings have increased by tens of thousands of dollars more than TRPBX — particularly since I’ve owned both funds for more than 20 years (until selling TRPBX earlier this year.)
Anyway, it’s my fault for sticking with TRP allocation funds for so long. They have underperformed
for a while, but I’m a patient buy-and-hold investor and kept expecting things to change. They did, but unfortunately for the worse.

If I recall correctly, the last calendar year in which foreign stocks outperformed US stocks, FBALX still outperformed TRPBX.

Last year (2022) FBALX lost 18.19%, while TRPBX lost "only" 17.08%. Data from M*.
Foreign vs. domestic in 2022: VFUS (VTIAX) lost 15.99% (NAV) while VTI (VTSAX) lost 19.50% (NAV)

2022 was a difficult year for equities around the world, and U.S. stocks were harder hit than international stocks. The S&P 500 Index fell 18% while the MSCI World Ex-USA Index declined 14%.

https://partners.wsj.com/principal/recalibrating-risk-2023/the-resurgence-of-international-equities/

TRP certainly didn’t market or describe TRPBX as a global allocation fund when I started investing in it
I don't know when that was, but the 2019 prospectus, in describing the fund's benchmark, says:

Combined Index Portfolio is a blended benchmark composed of 60% stocks (42%-48% Russell 3000 Index and 12%-18% MSCI All-Country World ex USA Index), 30% bonds (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), and 10% money market securities (FTSE 3-Month Treasury Bill Index) through 7/1/08. As of 8/1/12 the blended benchmark was composed of 60% stocks (42% Russell 3000 Index and 18% MSCI All-Country World ex USA Index), 30% bonds (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), and 10% money market securities (FTSE 3-Month Treasury Bill Index). The indices and percentages may vary over time.

30% of stock invested abroad or at least used to benchmark. (18%/60% stock allocation = 30%)
If it’s a global allocation fund, then why did they create RPGAX?
Why not? As hank observed: their offerings have multiplied at least 5X since I joined them in the mid-90s. Not sure that kind of shotgun approach is in their best interest. Also, it has a larger allocation to foreign equity (40% vs. 30% for TRPBX). Apparently enough for M* to place it in its global allocation category.
If a Fidelity fund performs well, they generally don’t close it to their investors
Certainly good performance attracts dollars, though it is the size of AUM itself that drives a fund to close. The theory is that a fund can manage only so much money and stay true to its style of investing. Then it hits "diseconomies of scale".
There's research that bears this out if the family doesn't create clones. Cloning is one way a family manipulates closures to pull in more money. Another way is pre-announce a closure and wait too long to close.
For example:

Fidelity will launch a new fund, Fidelity International Small Cap Opportunities, per an SEC filing dated May 6, 2005. The fund, which will also come in Fidelity Advisor flavor, will invest across regions and countries in companies with market capitalizations of $5 billion or less. Andrew Sassine, who joined Fidelity as an analyst in 1999, will helm the new offering. Expenses for the no-load shares are expected to be 1.39%, which is lower than its typical foreign small/mid-growth category rival's 1.67%. The A share option will cost 1.73%, and is also lower than its typical rival's 2%.
We find this move peculiar, and also unfriendly to the shareholders of the very similar Fidelity International Small Cap (FISMX), which Fidelity just closed on May 5, 2005.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/136400/fund-times-vanguard-energy-reopens-and-expands-team
Curiously, TRP reopened PRIDX (9/1/23) not much after Fidelity reopened FSCOX (1/14/23). The former was closed 4/2/18. Still tracking down the latter's closing date.

TRP’s foreign stock funds have never performed very well, with a few exceptions … .

I’d agree with that.

Lipper loves TRRIX - 5's across the board (except for tax efficiency)

I pay a lot of attention to Lipper’s ratings. BTW - M* gives TRRIX a “silver” (2nd highest) rating which ain’t too shabby either. I like TRRIX too - or wouldn’t have 10% of portfolio devoted to it. Hard to beat the .49% ER for a pretty diverse basket of managed funds.
That said… No way should that fund have fell over 13% in 2022. Especially - @msf will recall - that over the decades (far back as before the turn of the century) one commonly lauded aspect of TRP was their skill at allocating among different assets. They always seemed to have an edge in that one area. I’ve heard it here on this board over the years and that conformed to my own view until recently. Lose that edge and a good part of the reason for investing with them is gone.
BYW - It appears they’ve recently added a bit of their Dynamic Income fund to the TRRIX fixed income mix. That fund uses bond shorts to hedge against rising rates. We’ll see how it all works out.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1355064/000158064223007004/dayhagen_497.htm
497 1 dayhagen_497.htm 497
DHAM_Logo
Day Hagan Smart Value Fund
Class A: DHQAX Class C: DHQCX Class I: DHQIX
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated December 29, 2023 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated November 1, 2023.
______________________________________________________________________________
The Board of Trustees of Mutual Fund Series Trust has concluded that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on January 26, 2024 (“Liquidation Date”).
Effective immediately, the Fund will not accept any new investments and may no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio and will invest in cash equivalents until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares, unless you have previously requested payment in cash. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED OR EXCHANGED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO JANUARY 26, 2024, WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OR ACCOUNT OF RECORD. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact the Fund at 1-877-329-4246 (877-DAY-HAGN).
IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, any Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated November 1, 2023, which provide information that you should know about the Fund before investing. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-877-329-4246 (877-DAY-HAGN) or by writing to 4221 North 203rd Street, Suite 100, Elkhorn, Nebraska 68022.

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 1/1/24

TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Drops of 75 bps except for Newer IRAs (same).
Restricted RC 6.25%, RA 6.00%
Flexible RCP 5.50%, SRA 5.25%, Newer IRAs 5.20%
TSP G Fund hasn't updated yet (previous monthly rate was 5%).
Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
#StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1298/thread

I agree with hank about the declining service at T. Rowe Price. Performance of their allocation funds merits a closer look, however.
TRPBX is a global allocation (60/40) fund, with about 1/3 of stocks and 1/3 of bonds invested outside the US. For comparison, Vanguard's VSMGX is a global allocation (60/40) fund that's as vanilla as one can get, comprised of Total Stock, Total Bond, Total Int'l Stock, Total Int'l Bond. The bonds are 1/3 foreign, the stocks are 2/5 foreign.
These two funds have run neck and neck since the beginning of 2020. See PortfolioVisualizer. 3.83% annualized for TRP, 3.87% for Vanguard.
It's difficult to classify these funds. M* lumps them in with domestic moderate allocation funds, and they both rate three stars on that scale. As Tarwheel observed, foreign holdings have underperformed. If compared strictly among global allocation funds, these funds would likely have garnered more stars.
Lipper calls TRPBX a mixed asset target allocation moderate fund, while calling VSMGX a mixed asset target allocation growth fund. So it's not surprising that Lipper rates TRPBX a 4 (out of 5) for total return while rating VSMGX only a 1.
The point is that these funds are doing what they said they would do and are performing as expected given what they invest in. If a global allocation fund with dynamic allocations is of more interest than a fund with static allocations, TRP offers RPGAX. PortfolioVisualizer shows that it has done a bit better than the other funds since 2020.
M* calls RPGAX fund a global allocation fund, while Lipper calls it flexible portfolio fund. It is competitive with CIBFX and MDLOX. M* calls both of those global allocation funds; Lipper calls MDLOX a flexible portfolio fund but calls CIBFX a global equity income fund.
Regarding TRRIX, some of the same comments apply. Long term, it has paced VSCGX, Vanguard's 40/60 global allocation (index based) fund. Since the beginning of 2020, it has surpassed VSCGX by a full percentage point (3.18% vs 2.11% annualized).
I agree that it is unfortunately burdened with PRCIX. That's a risk with in-house funds of funds (one that Vanguard circumvents by using underlying index funds). FWIW, TRRIX has somewhat more invested in TRPZX than in PRCIX (TRRIX fact sheet). Though those are the two elephants in the fixed income room.
Lipper loves TRRIX - 5's across the board (except for tax efficiency), since Lipper considers it a Target Now fund. The Vanguard fund is in Lipper's doghouse, since Lipper considers it a Target Allocation Moderate fund.