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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Best month for bonds in nearly four decades
    There were a LOT of posts this year about CDs for a LOT of reasons. Here’s my 2 cents on all that.
    As background: I’ve been a brokerage, CD (all references here are to brokerage, Call Protected CDs) ladder owner for ~15 years, owned individual CDs many times in the 25 years prior to that, have been active for years in BUYing Secondary Issues, and set up a Revocable Trust, CD portfolio many years ago for HNW relative.
    I found the posts to be everything from enlightening to alarming. I was surprised at how little many posters know about CDs and how widespread an overall bias is against them.
    The recent, and to some, LONG awaited, months of unusual opportunities in CDs is winding down. For much of 2023, investors had the opportunity to build CD ladders out 5+ years with 5+% or better average annual rates. It was a godsend period for investors who highly regard guaranteed, call protected fixed income.
    Some, like me, love to not have to think or worry about the FI sleeve of their portfolio. Some, like me, think that 4%-5+% is a level that is equal to or better than whatever they might get from bond funds over the next 5 years. And even if it’s not, it’s a hurdle at which they say, “Screw worrying about bonds. Gimme the CD X% and lemme worry about/spend more quality time with the higher risk, higher reward part of my portfolio.
    Me? I dumped every dedicated bond fund I owned (mostly at EOY 2022) and pared back the number and value of allocation funds with bonds, ending with only about 5% in bonds, down significantly from my levels of the past 5-10 years. The proceeds replaced the lost stock exposure from sale of allocation funds, bought a 5-yr CD ladder paying 5+%, and added the residual (~$50K) to a Total Stock Market Index fund, the latter of which is UP ~24% YTD.
    Meanwhile, I was free to spend WAY MORE time on my now 11-fund stock/bond portfolio. The 11 funds are UP between 11% to 76% YTD, yielding a weighted average of UP ~29%.
    The main reason CD posts are WAY DOWN has little to do with anyone who bought them NOT being interested in them or happy/satisfied in their BUYs. It has WAY MORE to do with the fact that the opportunities that graciously peaked twice this year are now dwindling-to-gone. I would also guess there are some posters who didn’t quite get the whole CD opportunity thing, passed on it, and ain’t real interested in posting about it now.
    The rates that will be available in the coming 6 months, when several rungs fall off my ladder, will still be over MY hurdle. So I’ll be able to have a 5-yr CD ladder in place starting July 2024 at the age of 68. Could NOT be happier with the way all that shakes out. I will be interested, without any hesitation or rear-view remorse, to see how the TRs of the dedicated bond funds I dumped compare to what I replaced them with. Either way, it’s a W for me as I’ve virtually and happily removed bonds from my portfolio, and can spend WAY MORE quality time on the part of my portfolio that makes me real money.
    Also, on the posted notion that there have been issues with CD interest payments...
    Ugh.
    There have been three known issues noted by MFO posters on CD interest payments.
    All occurred within about the past year.
    All were caused by unique issues that slightly delayed the interest payment (e.g., power outage, bank merger with systems communications issues).
    All were resolved and all interest payments were posted to investor a/c's within a reasonable delay period.
    So that's three minor issues related to hundreds of MFO posters who have received thousands of interest payments over the past X number of years (in my case, 15 years!).
    To me, that is all worthy of a minor footnote, but definitely not worthy of a broad stroke, negative comment about issues with interest payments.
    That’s me and my 2 cents, and that's all it is. Take it or leave it.
    YMMV.
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    I am surprised that a fund like USBOX can mimic GQETX so closely ( even with double the ER) and have only $250 million in assets. I am also a little surprised they can get away with such mimicry but I guess 13Fs are public information. It is also interesting that with almost identical portfolios, GQTEX is a M* Gold fund and USBOX only bronze, presumably because of the ER. But does M* believe someone with $5,000,000 to invest is going to be reading their analysis?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Sven - TRP still hasn’t posted details of PRFCX’s holdings, other than the overall asset allocation. According to their website, it’s about 40% domestic stocks, 50% domestic bonds, 5% foreign bonds and 5% cash
  • Best month for bonds in nearly four decades
    10 year: 4.026% at 3:00 EST.
    Wahoo-bonga.
    3.903% before today’s open. My (mostly reliable) tracker shows Rieder’s BINC up 2.73% to $53.41 today alone in pre market. Most likely an error or abnormality. ISTM those pre market quotes get yanked around a lot by very small trades. Nonetheless, this one, like almost all bond funds, has had a great ride.
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    @operation_twist,
    I looked up M* total returns for GQETX and SPY from 12/12/2008 to 12/12/2023 and also from 12/12/2008 to 12/13/2023 - your post was on 12/13/2023. In both cases, GQETX total returns were higher than that of SPY, as I had already said in my previous post. I did extra work trying to understand where you may be coming from and posted my work. You on the other hand do not seem to have any intention of seeing the facts, except repeating your claims.
    Repeating a false claim with even a bigger post does not make the false claim correct in this forum. Everyone makes an occasional mistake but when the mistake is owned, the forum resources are spent on mutually productive endeavors.
    In addition, that 15 year period is when international stocks did worse than US stocks and I already mentioned in my previous post that GQETX has 20% in international stocks. Why would anyone compare SPY total returns to GQETX, even though GQETX did better, to express a firm opinion about the manager? BTW, M* also shows GQETX has 68.64% active share - to your statement that QLTY is a [high cost] index fund.
    If you simply stopped at "[I]f I had to pick this or voo and hold for next ten years I would pick voo", I would have no problem and I would not even ask you to justify, especially when Warren Buffet said the retail investor should put all their equity investment in SPY.
    It is your next statements, "qlty is a high cost index fund. over 15 years the spy beat it" that are factually inaccurate.
    No one here is married to this manager or to GMO. I will go to whoever will pay me more. It is each person (or investor)'s responsibility to get out of unproductive relationship(s).
    Unfortunately, this forum does not have an ignore button. If it did, I would request you to put me on Ignore and I would also reciprocate.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold all vone, into >5% mm, will dive back into jqua on pullback
  • Best month for bonds in nearly four decades
    Asset allocation funds are having a great day this month. The bond sleeves are rocking as the FED holds the rate hike unchanged for the rest of the year. 10 year treasury dropped again today! For example, VWINX having more long bonds is doing well. When the FED starts to cut rate, it is expected to do even better. At that time period, the 5% yield of money market, T bill, and CDs will come down as well.
    We stop buying T bills and CDs several months ago and shifted to bond funds as T bill/CD matures. Really don’t want to get caught with reinvestment issue down the road.
  • Best month for bonds in nearly four decades
    I should have said most in the thread. There was a long thread posted a few months back asking if people were going to invest in bonds again. I recall most of the posts said "why would I when I can get a 6mo CD yielding 5%? Many also cited the abysmal recent PAST performance of bond funds as another reason not to invest there again. My own comment was that it was a really good time to invest in credit. Most of the best credit managers like marathon, pimco, oaktree, canyon, KKR, PGIM were shouting from the rooftops how attractive the setup was.
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    the manager has a 15 year track record with another fund. the index did better. the reason I say I would rather own the index is because of the massive overlap in holding this fund has with the index. I am simply betting on lower costs. Also I understand the intense desire to find the manager with the secret sauce. I fell for it with SEQUX. They haven't beat the index in last 5 10 or 15 years.
    It's weird that expressing an opinion on something, I warned you it would ruffle feathers, is now considered a "drive by".
    contrary opinion. if I had to pick this or voo and hold for next ten years I would pick voo. qlty is a high cost index fund. over 15 years the spy beat it.

    QLTY is a month old fund and is an actively managed (not an index) fund. Not sure where you are getting your 15 year numbers and calling QLTY an index fund from.
    GQETX a cousin of QLTY (a US equity fund) and is allocated 20% to International stocks. To give you the benefit of doubt, I compared GQETX with SPY (same as VOO) and its total return is slightly higher than that of SPY (let us call it even) over a past 15 years. However, over the life of GQETX and over the last 10 year period, GQETX handily beat SPY. GQETX is also less volatile.
    As an opinion, one can pick VOO over QLTY for a future investment. Yes, one can have an opinion (contrary or concurring) about the future but it is not possible to have contrary (or alternate) facts about the past.
    What is the purpose of the drive by shooting?
    contrary opinion. if I had to pick this or voo and hold for next ten years I would pick voo. qlty is a high cost index fund. over 15 years the spy beat it.

    QLTY is a month old fund and is an actively managed (not an index) fund. Not sure where you are getting your 15 year numbers and calling QLTY an index fund from.
    GQETX a cousin of QLTY (a US equity fund) and is allocated 20% to International stocks. To give you the benefit of doubt, I compared GQETX with SPY (same as VOO) and its total return is slightly higher than that of SPY (let us call it even) over a past 15 years. However, over the life of GQETX and over the last 10 year period, GQETX handily beat SPY. GQETX is also less volatile.
    As an opinion, one can pick VOO over QLTY for a future investment. Yes, one can have an opinion (contrary or concurring) about the future but it is not possible to have contrary (or alternate) facts about the past.
    What is the purpose of the drive by shooting?
  • Janus Henderson Sustainable & Impact Core Bond ETF will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1500604/000119312523295531/d651596d497.htm
    497 1 d651596d497.htm 497
    Janus Detroit Street Trust
    Janus Henderson Sustainable & Impact Core Bond ETF
    Supplement dated December 14, 2023
    to Currently Effective Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    The Board of Trustees of Janus Detroit Street Trust (the “Trust”) approved a plan to liquidate and terminate Janus Henderson Sustainable & Impact Core Bond (the “Fund”), effective on or about February 21, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). After the close of business on or about February 15, 2024, the Fund will no longer accept creation orders. Trading in the Fund will be halted prior to market open on or about February 16, 2024. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to shareholders on or about February 23, 2024. Termination of the Fund is expected to occur as soon as practicable following the liquidation.
    Prior to and through the close of trading on NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE”) on February 15, 2024, the Fund will undertake the process of winding down and liquidating its portfolio. This process may result in the Fund holding cash and securities that may not be consistent with its investment objectives and strategies. Furthermore, during the time between market open on February 16, 2024 and the Liquidation Date, because the shares will no longer be traded on NYSE, there may not be a trading market for the Fund’s shares.
    Shareholders may sell shares of the Fund on NYSE until the market close on February 15, 2024 and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. Shares held as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed for cash at the then current net asset value. Proceeds of the redemption will be paid through the broker-dealer with whom you hold shares of the Fund. Shareholders will generally recognize a capital gain or loss on the redemptions. The Fund may or may not, depending upon its circumstances, pay one or more dividends or other distributions prior to or along with the redemption payments. Please consult your personal tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    "I have that [XMHQ] in the IRA. It might be a better fit for the taxable. I'll probably put that money into FMIMX."
    Do you mind elaborating why you would prefer FMIMX over XMHQ?
    Other than in 2022, an unusual set of circumstances, XMHQ seems to have done well.
    While I do not generally pay attention to ER, I think you mentioned elsewhere and so I checked. XMHQ ER 0.25% while FMIMX ER is 1%.
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    "Inker's marketing wryly amuses me."
    I agree that GMO is an annoying marketing machine. As I mentioned elsewhere, it was ballsy for them to not seed their first ETF - their overconfidence of their ability to market speaks for itself. It started with $3M AUM and got up to $30M as of yesterday (50% increase probably yesterday). The lumpy inflows could have a negative short term impact for existing shareholders.
    I have always ignored their public pronouncements. I would not have bought QLTY (an active fund) if we did not have GQETX to look at past performance. If the fund stopped performing against another Quality fund (passive or active), then it is reasonable to bail but comparing it to SPY or other active funds on a short to intermediate term basis may just be a point of entertainment. I think it is fair to compare any investment over one's investment horizon. It is also fair to question whether a retail investor (such as us) should really delve into specific factors.
    As I mentioned earlier in this thread, expect Quality to give lower returns when high Beta (or other factors) are in vogue. Also, with only 35 constituents, QLTY returns could be a bit lumpy just as with any focused fund but GQETX returns do not appear to be lumpy - active management?
    I would just sit and watch until the fund gets to a reasonable size AUM.
    I think posters in this thread raised good points, even if a bit salty! I think it is good when others take the time and effort to question what one is doing. Thanks.
  • T. Rowe Price Hedged Equity Fund will be available November 8
    I edited the PHEFX ER info in my post above to decrease from 0.78% to 0.58%.
    Also, today I reduced (on the way to eliminate) TCAF and bought PHEFX. I already have a lot of PRWCX and TCAF is also overweight HC and Utilities. It was difficult to give up an ETF and get into a new mutual fund.
    PHEFX at TRP website does not have portfolio holdings but M* says it has 318 equity holdings (but lists 96 which is similar to JHQAX).
    Info available about PHEFX is very sparse but JHQAX website has excellent amount of information, including how the JPM strategy is implemented. JPM team is seasoned while TRP team (a single manager) is relatively green.
    PHEFX AUM up to $3.1B (JPM Hedge equity strategies have a combined AUM of $25B).
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    Thanks @Mark. But what are those "quantitative and fundamental techniques" that sets QLTY apart from FUQIX or QUAL-- just to mention two large blend funds that have quality in their name.
    As of this morning, I find 54 US equity funds in the MFO premium database with quality in their name, in addition to QLTY. And many of them charge less than QLTY.
    So I am amused by the pitch that GMO alone, has discovered, and can identify, a quality premium.
  • Precious metals are breaking out
    Yuppers. Gold posted a $50+ gain yesterday and is up $62 today at last look. Miners going wild. OPGSX (used to own / still track) was up 5% yesterday. Silver’s been leading as it often does. Gold peaked above $2100 a week or two ago (a record high). Almost back to that level today.
    Not a recommendation. Play at your own risk. :)
  • Best month for bonds in nearly four decades
    Multisector FMSDX may have only 30% nominal-equity now (it varies), but it has increased HY/FR-BL/convertibles/EMs to 25%. So, it still acts as moderate-allocation. Of course, it will lag in any stock rally.
  • ARTFX
    ◾you beneficially own shares in the Funds with combined balances of $250,000;
    This is similar to the way one can access PRWCX - with at least $250,000 invested at T. Rowe Price. At TRP, that could mean all assets owned through their brokerage, or it could mean only TRP accounts (it isn't clear to me).
    The former would be similar to Fidelity ($1M in brokerage assets for Private Client status), while the latter would be similar to the Artisan Funds rule above and to Vanguard's rule ($1M in VG funds for Flagship status).
    Note that with Artisan, being gifted one share to open an account won't work as intended:
    ◾you receive shares of the closed Fund as a gift from an existing shareholder of the Fund (additional investments generally are not permitted unless you are otherwise eligible to open an account under one of the other criteria listed)
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/13/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/13/23
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (51.3%; high) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (19.3%, low); neutral became the middle sentiment (29.4%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +32.0% (very high). Investor concerns: Budget; inflation; economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine (94+ weeks); Israel-Hamas (9+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds up, oil flat, gold down, dollar down. The FED held rates & indicated possible cuts in late-2024. An everything-rally followed. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1285/thread