Spy iwm shows massive bull flag 3 months chart....not sure will carry thru/nextleg up formation?? Housing small caps rebound may carry next rally
Panw 350s??
Soxl 50s??
Arm 175s??
All techies? +5 8% yr end
Tna? 60$ yr end
Btcusd held 62k levels
15% Cash this morning
Hard say will squeeze through
All spy iwm qqq at massive 68% 70s% Fibonacci levels...maybe large pullback soon

Question so harsh to answer.
Still 12- 15 yrs til retirement
78% in stocks /22% Cash/cd (most cash in Corp bonds, sgov, $bil, and fbnd). 4% cryptos. Not sure if will sale afterdec 20th...after Xmas rally. 2025 could be recessed and poor returns?. I am so scare of large down turns from recessions now and 22% in cash.
For mama portfolio retirement -Most parked in Target date fund 2020, bonds, fbnd bnd, sgov, tbil. New div $ go into new Corp bonds (try look for ones return 4.9 - 5.3% ytm 4-10 yrs)
Try to place new incomes and cash to new corp bonds and jnk. Still also place cash secure puts and cover calls to generate weeklies incomes (until the indicators say market extremely overbought then may have have take profits and sell little more). Extremely lucky to learn options games and managing- looking for 1-3k weeklies Extra premiums incomes from optipns
Nobody know for sure what futures will bring

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587982/000121390024079933/ea0215044-01_497.htm
497 1 ea0215044-01_497.htm 497
AXS Alternative Value Fund
Investor Class Shares: (COGLX)
Class I Shares: (COGVX)
A series of Investment Managers Series Trust II (the “Trust”)
Supplement dated September 18, 2024 to the
Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
each dated January 31, 2024.
The Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved a Plan of Liquidation for the AXS Alternative Value Fund (the “Fund”). The Plan of Liquidation authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund. In order to perform such liquidation, effective immediately, the Fund is closed to all new investment.
The Fund will be liquidated on or about September 27, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”), and shareholders may redeem their shares until the Liquidation Date. Redemptions made on or after the date of this Supplement will not be subject to any redemption fee that would otherwise be applicable. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make a liquidating distribution to its remaining shareholders equal to each shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and the Fund will be dissolved. Any liquidation proceeds paid to a shareholder should generally be treated as received in exchange for shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss depending on the shareholder’s tax basis. Shareholders (including but not limited to shareholders holding shares through tax-deferred accounts) should contact their tax advisers to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. Under certain circumstances, liquidation proceeds may be subject to withholding taxes.
In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, Quantitative Value Technologies, LLC, d/b/a Cognios Capital, the Fund’s sub-advisor, may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
Please contact the Fund at 1-833-AXS-ALTS (1-833-297-2587) if you have any questions or need assistance.
Please file this Supplement with your records.

@Sven, Powell did say that dot-plots showed multiple cuts in 2024, and there are only 2 FOMC meetings left. So, more 25-50 bps cuts are coming in 2024. The 2-yr was at 3.61%, meaning sharply lower fed fund rate in months ahead.

Ironically that investment grade bonds of all duration fell while high yield bonds held up.
Will there be more cuts coming this year? The days of holding money market yielding 5% will likely coming to an end sooner than one thinks.

CBLDX is 40% investment grade and 55% high yield. Curious to know how this can be a comparable to a MM or CD where principal is (almost) guaranteed.
Personally I would consider CBUDX as closer to a MM because 75% of holdings are investment grade.

Why compare CBLDX to MM when the Fed fund rates will be lower in months and MM income will go lower, and CBLDX will still make money.
CBLDX already made about 2% more for YTD (https://schrts.co/frWeCzpD)
But you are right, if you want a guarantee, use CD+MM.

REMIX is a complicated fund using a black box management*.
Fidelity shows Top 10 Holdings AS OF 07/31/2024 at (https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/90470L576)
* The All-Weather strategy is an asset allocation methodology that diversifies across geographic regions, asset classes, and investment styles. The fund can invest in securities that may have a leveraging effect (such as derivatives and forward-settling securities) that may increase market exposure, magnify investment risks, and cause losses to be realized more quickly
We also discussed this fund on MFO, see https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/178746/#Comment_178746

Thanks. As always a good summary from you.

Ditto: Nice summary. Thanks Yogi.
Strange day. Santa Clause Jerome Powell gave the markets what they wanted - a 50 basis point rate cut and promise of more to come. Such ingratitude! Stocks fell. Gold fell. Silver tumbled hard. Miners fell too. Looks to me like intermediate and longer-term rates held fairly steady. (The GNMA I track declined slightly.) Looks as if the dollar strengthened on the news. Not what one might expect on a rate cut. Maybe there’ll be a “big bang” (strong reaction) tomorrow? Upside? Downside? Anybody want to place a bet?

The Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday approved a change to market rules that would cause the prices of many stocks to be quoted in increments of $0.005.
The rule change—which could potentially affect thousands of stocks and exchange-traded funds—is part of an overhaul of market plumbing that SEC Chair Gary Gensler initiated after the GameStop trading frenzy of early 2021. It was approved in a unanimous vote by the agency’s five commissioners, including two Republicans who have in the past opposed elements of Gensler’s agenda.
SEC officials say the rule change will help lower costs for investors by narrowing bid-ask spreads—the difference between the buying and selling prices of stocks. Bid-ask spreads eat into investors’ gains when they trade in and out of stocks. If the spreads are tighter, investors save money.
< - >
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/get-ready-to-see-stock-prices-in-half-pennies-1f18321b?mod=hp_lead_pos11
IMO the only 'investors' served by this are the high-speed traders moving millions of shares and trying to profit on miniscule amounts per trade, and *maybe* fund managers might save a tiny amount on commissions as they reposition. But the Average Joe and Jane Investor won't care one bit....or notice an extra $1 in their fund's share price at the end of the year thanks to such cost savings.

Thanks. As always a good summary from you.
P.S.: He was relaxed during the presser, which makes me a bit nervous! Seems like he had to work for the 50 bps cut and appeared relieved he got it through, with only one dissent.

ANYONE KNOW WHY THEY HOLD 3 S&P 500 ETFS? WHY NOT JUST HOLD ONE?

Post Conference Notes by YBB
Rates were cut - fed funds 4.75-5.00%, bank reserves rate 4.9%, discount rate 5.0%. Treasury QT continues at the reduced level of -$25 billion/mo, but MBS QT remains at -$35 billion/mo. The QT & rate cuts can coexist so long as there is ample liquidity in the banking system.
Economy is moderately growing, the labor market is solid but not hot, the inflation is moving towards 2% average inflation target, the fed fund rate is above "neutral" rate (its value varies by sources). So, a policy recalibration was needed vs that since mid-2023. The future cuts may be 25 or 50 bps. Multiple rates cuts are likely in 2024 (there are only November & December FOMCs). But the return of ZIRP era is unlikely. Moreover, if inflation starts to rise, the Fed may reverse course.
Housing inflation as indicated by OERs is high but coming down. Issues are national housing shortage & homeowners with low mortgage rates staying put. Lower mortgage rates should bring things into a better balance.
Basel III banking changes (especially, the lower bank capital requirements) are a result of interagency negotiations & are now in the 60-day comments period. He declined to address changes to M&A regulations than Michael Barr is looking into.
The Fed doesn't consider itself to be behind the curve.
The Fed doesn't take into account the election rhetoric or politics.
There were new SEPs.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1660/thread

Speaking of "polls": As of 11:15 PST-
DJIA 0.22%
S&P Mid Cap 400 1.25%
Technology 0.16%
DJT: $15.65 -3.62%

So. Much. Winning!
He desperately wants it to stay above (IIRC) 12-and-change so he can sell at some point....

Speaking of "polls": As of 11:15 PDST-
DJIA 0.22%
S&P Mid Cap 400 1.25%
Technology 0.16%
DJT: $15.65 -3.62%

These are the only 2 Rondure funds left with AUM of $98.88 million. So, will Laura Geritz focus on SMAs only? Before founding Rondure, Laura was at Wasatch and American Century.
Overseas ROSOX was shut in February 2024.
Barron's in 5/24/21 issue mentioned that older value investors were leaving the business or dying. Laura was mentioned as up and coming new generation of value investors with 10+ years ahead of them - well, not for Laura.
"VALUE has lagged badly for so long, that it is risky to pick the NEXT GENERATION of value hunters. But that didn’t stop Barron’s from coming up with the following list (all have 10+ years of career ahead of them).
Pierry PY, 44, Phaeacian (global PPGVX, international PPIVX). That is Greek for world travelers.
Mark COOPER, 52, MAC Alpha Capital (hedge fund). Also teaches at Columbia Business School.
Samantha McLEMORE, 41, Miller Value Partners (LGOAX) and Patient Capital (own new firm). Has small exposure to Bitcoins.
Clare HART, 50, JPM OIEIX. Looks for free cash flow yield and quality value.
Henry ELLENBOGEN, 48 and Anouk DEY, 35, Durable Capital. Dey also teaches at Columbia Business School.
Laura GERITZ, 49, Rondure Global (RNWOX, ROSOX ). Quality-contrarian looks for high returns and free cash flows."
All Rondure funds https://www.morningstar.com/asset-management-companies/rondure-BN00000J7W/funds
ROSOX closure https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/61877/rondure-overseas-fund-will-be-liquidated
Website https://rondureglobal.com/
Barron's issue summary at YBB site https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/121/barron-24-2021-2

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1537140/000158064224005603/rondure497.htm
497 1 rondure497.htm 497
Rondure New World Fund
Investor Class - RNWOX
Institutional Class - RNWIX
(a series of Northern Lights Fund Trust III)
Supplement dated September 18, 2024 to
the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated August 31, 2024
The Board of Trustees of Northern Lights Fund Trust III (the “Board”) has concluded that it is in the best interests of the Rondure New World Fund (the “Fund”) and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on or about October 18, 2024 (“Redemption Date”).
Effective immediately, the Fund will not accept any new investments, will no longer pursue its stated investment objective, and will begin liquidating its portfolio and investing in cash equivalents such as money market funds until all shares have been redeemed. Any required distributions of income and capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares, unless you have previously requested payment in cash.
Prior to or on the Redemption Date, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section in the Prospectus. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO THE REDEMPTION DATE WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund at 1-855-775-3337.
This Supplement, and the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated August 31, 2024, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund at 1-855-775-3337.

Launch a national cryptocoin (pander to rich crypto bros, [negatively] impact the financial system)
But, but ... you don't seem to understand. Impacting the financial system is not a negative, it's a positive to take down the anti-conservative banks.

Other speakers after Trump, including his eldest son, Don Jr., talked about embracing cryptocurrency as an alternative to what they allege is a banking system tilted against conservatives.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-crypto-digital-assets-a08456edc5947451f3f23b184ed9fb29
Trump has done so well with DJT (and Trump U, and the Trump steaks, and ...), why not launch another business? He's learned so much about crypto from great advisers:

Barron, ha[s] shown “great judgement” on the technology. “I think my children opened my eyes more than anything else,” he said. “Barron’s a young guy, but he knows it. He talks about his wallet, he’s got four wallets or something ... he knows this stuff inside and out.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-launches-crypto-company-amid-115939262.html
I'll see his four wallets and raise him one ... or something.

"Somehow we do not seem to be able to find a middle ground on anything. Either over regulation or no regulation."
Ain't that the truth.
BTW, I haven't seen any info on the pipeline itself... gas or oil? From the reports I'd guess gas.

YES, NGL.
https://www.chron.com/news/article/houston-deer-park-pipeline-fire-19768583.php

@Junkster
Still holding my Junk. The new Core-Plus fund is just 1.5% of portfolio. WCPNX. Enjoying the ride, though my junk funds are by no means leading the pack.

@Crash, I give you credit for your persistence and glad it is working out for you.

@Junkster
Still holding my Junk. The new Core-Plus fund is just 1.5% of portfolio. WCPNX. Enjoying the ride, though my junk funds are by no means leading the pack.