Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. Bought a few more of
ET on the share price dip after that crazy well-head or valve fire in Deer Park, TX, outside Houston. Should have burned off by now. Now
5.4
5% of portfolio.
BHB is behaving nicely, anticipating rate cuts. Tiny position in
BCE is finally looking up. Canadian rate cuts...
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/energy-transfer-pipeline-continues-burn-la-porte-texas-2024-09-17/From the Schwab website:
"...a massive pipeline explosion
after a vehicle drove through a fence and struck an above-ground valve, officials said....The statement by Deer Park said Energy Transfer, the Dallas-based owner of the pipeline, expects the fire to burn itself out later Tuesday...."
(Drunk driver??? We don't do suicide bombings in THIS country.... YET! There is no info on the driver yet, either.)
"Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo said in a statement that
20 miles (32 kilometers) of pipeline between the two closed valves had to burn off before the fire would stop."
OMG.
Lower rates, wall of monies looking for a home? @ FD. For several years the total return on CD’s killed bond funds for everyone but you. The situation was shorted lived but lots of risk free cash flow was fun while it lasted.
First, the question is about now.
Second, in the last 2 years the right bond funds killed CD...CBLDX made 1
5+%...OSTIX 20+%. There are better ones. The right bond funds have more to go. 2024 has been one of the easiest one to make money.
Third, I know others who have done well too.
But, if you like CD, by all means use them.
NIXT wow. out of the gates fast +4-5%. wait and see how their metrics unfold.
Morningstar Equity-Style Box & Analyst Rating Changes It used to be that computer-generated ratings were flagged by Q-symbols. Morningstar generates genuine analyst ratings for about 15-20% of the fund universe it covers. Now there is additional work as each fund class has its own analyst rating (not just the oldest class).
But earlier THIS year, Morningstar removed the Q-symbols claiming that its computer-generated ratings are now as good as the analyst-generated one, or one could say that analyst-generated ratings are just as bad as the computer-generated ones.
So now, the only indication of computer-generated rating may be from the text that may have more indecipherable gobbledygook in the computer-generated ratings.
Huh. I was just on M* a few weeks ago and still saw Q-symbols for a bunch of tickers. Maybe they were the last ones to go.
I strongly disagree with how they now term their AI-based 'analysis' as "Morningstar Manager Analysis" or something like that (I forget the actual title). The takeaway is, unless you see an (allegedly) real person's name on an article or analysis, it may well be computer-generated. DYODD, caveat reader, and all that.
Morningstar Equity-Style Box & Analyst Rating Changes It used to be that computer-generated ratings were flagged by Q-symbols. Morningstar generates genuine analyst ratings for about 15-20% of the fund universe it covers. Now there is additional work as each fund class has its own analyst rating (not just the oldest class).
But earlier THIS year, Morningstar removed the Q-symbols claiming that its computer-generated ratings are now as good as the analyst-generated one, or one could say that analyst-generated ratings are just as bad as the computer-generated ones.
So now, the only indication of computer-generated rating may be from the text that may have more indecipherable gobbledygook in the computer-generated ratings.
How to stop TRP paper notifications That was the reason I left TRP 3 or 4 years ago. Tried everything to stop the paper statements from coming (web settings, repeated phone calls / complaints). The worse thing was they were sporadic and unpredictable - not regular. Had one been delivered to an incorrect address or stolen from my rural mail box, I wouldn’t have even known it was missing. Horror show lasted about 6 months before I left. . (I’d been a TRP client 25-30 years before the issues began.)
There have been several threads here over the past few years about the poor customer service at TRP. Sounds like you’ve set / re-set the web-based account settings. Try phoning customer service. But don’t count on them resolving this. They couldn’t in my case.
High yield MUNI help I had a similar question recently having started a position in MLN last fall. MLN is riskier than I like although even "conservative" higher yield munis lost 15% or more in 2022. MLN has bounced back so I kept it not wanting more capital gains.
After looking at a number of funds I finally settled on PRFHX and PHMIX. They have higher APRs than the peer group, with a St Dev and DD similar to others and the usual "Lower risk high yield fund everyone mentions" VWAHX)
Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts I don't know much about bonds except that at the present time I generally like them short.
The equity side has angst operating in all directions. Will they cut too much? A sure sign of a recession to come. Will they not cut enough? That would be sure to cause a recession. Then there are those that note the perilous altitudes to which equity has climbed. A untoward shift in the wind--earnings, M2 supply, war, locusts--could cause problems whether there is a recession, or not. Lots of entrails being consulted these days.
Well. I have lots of room to buy in the taxable if it comes to that. The IRA is 55/45 equity/fixed income. I had hope to get it down to 50/50, but Mr Market threw a couple of tantrums that spiked that plan. I think the hatches are battened about as well as can be hoped for since we don't need the RMD's yet.
The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello The Week in Charts (09/16/24)The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:21 Free Wealth Path Analysis
01:06 Topics
02:42 The Inflation Downtrend Continues
07:
57 The Most Absurd Number in CPI
10:46 What Should/Will the Fed Do?
18:4
5 Don't Try This at Home
23:47 Big Tech's Incredible Run
28:11 The Watch Bubble Has Burst
31:22 Americans Falling Behind on Their Bills
36:11 The Path to Prosperity
VideoBlog - 09/16 blog not currently available
Talking 2025 Tax & COLA Adjustments Good info to keep track. But keep in mind that many are projections assuming inflation creep, not yet confirmed by the IRS. Also, major changes may be in 2026 after the TCJA expires at the end of 2025 and it's unclear what parts, if any, may ne renewed.
Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts Anxious to see how the bond markets respond to Fed day Wednesday as well as the following day, I usually have an opinion (which thankfully I never base my trades on) but haven’t the slightest idea of how the markets will react Wednesday and Thursday. If forced to wager a guess, still looking for a move down to 3.
50% in the ten year and lower by end of 2024.
The past few months have been nirvana for bond traders and investors. And YTD many bond funds are already up double digits. How long can this continue? Besides the two funds I mentioned last month as well as my MBS fund, I also hold an emerging markets debt fund. Rising gold, falling dollar, lower Fed funds ahead of us and investor apathy on the various boards towards emerging markets are just a few of the reasons. I also wanted a fund with more fixed rate debt as much of what I own are funds with a larger proportion to floating rate. The CLOs bond ETFs just keep rolling on as does HOSIX, a CLO OEF. The later has also been great substitute for cash. Curious to see how the CLOs respond this week.
Lastly, wanted some exposure to the subprime non agency RMBS market much akin to IOFIX. But wouldn’t touch that one with a ten foot pole. So found a fund that has a foothold there but with a far better track record YTD than IOFIX.
Edit. To contradict my feelings about the 10 year above. If the economy was weakening why are junk bonds at all time historic highs. Not what you would see if a recession is on the horizon.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV
Talking 2025 Tax & COLA Adjustments
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. Been adding to home builder stocks, DHI (DR Horton) and PHM (Pultegroup). Still pretty small positions overall but I want to play the trend. My biggest holding in that arena is BLDR (Builders Firstsource) which I've bought and sold a few times over the years. Also been moving more MM cash to existing bond funds, CSOAX (Credit Suisse strategic income) and IGIB (iShares 5-10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond)... FWIW.
Tech XLK Rebalancing September rebalance of
XLK won't be much in the news for a good reason. It changed to proportional reduction in weights of the largest
5%+ holdings, rather the the old stupid "stick it to smallest of the
5%+ bunch". This is GOOD.
Edit/Add. Rebalance date 9/20/24 after market close. Effective date 9/23/24.
https://x.com/YBB_Finance/status/1835671248182862197
