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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Lower rates, wall of monies looking for a home?
    I'm cribbing some of my response to the Crossing Bridge thread. The return period under discussion is since April 30.
    I added CBLDX to the bond fund gaggle in my IRA because it had a positive return in 2022. I'm guessing XONE would have too. Since April 30 XONE is up 2.87 to CBLDX's 2.54.
    The rest of my deck chairs are THOPX, up 5.08%, USTB up 4.72, and TBUX up 3.05. Stock Charts doesn't seem to recognize WSHNX. These funds all had various negative returns in 2022
    As you can see, a mix of shorter durations and credit qualities. By this time next year I expect 'll have this list narrowed down considerably.
    All of these buys have been commented on in the buy, sell, why thread.
    I'll leave a small amount in the mmk in my IRA in case of unforeseen buying opportunities.
    I am definitely staying on the short side of duration since I am inclined to think that amnesia is a comorbidity with inflationary periods. I don't trust either party to avoid foolish behavior after the election is over and everyone is seated. I do follow the Anna Karenina formula, which I paraphrase here: Happy families are all alike. Unhappy families are each unhappy in their own way.
    I'm not interested in complex alternatives to bonds.
  • Crossing Bridge question
    I added CBLDX to the bond fund gaggle in my IRA because it had a positive return in 2022. I'm guessing XONE would have too. Since April 30 XONE is up 2.87 to CBLDX's 2.54.
    The rest of my deck chairs are THOPX, up 5.08%, USTB up 4.72, and TBUX up 3.05. Stock Charts doesn't seem to recognize WSHNX. These funds all had various negative returns in 2022
    As you can see, a mix of shorter durations and credit qualities. By this time next year I expect 'll have this list narrowed down considerably. So I'm not too worried about key-man risk.
    Per @Devo's point two: Team management seems to work well for some companies that have been around a long time. Some companies have deep analytic benches. PRWCX was a successful fund before Giroux took over. Am I the only one that likes to look up older funds on older editions of Kiplingers on google books?
  • Lower rates, wall of monies looking for a home?
    If you liked ”CDs/Tbills/MMKT funds” a year ago, you should love them now. On a relative basis they’ve gotten cheaper. Both the S&P and NASDAQ are ahead more than 27% year-over-year. I wouldn’t be throwing new money into the latter.
    “Walls of money” is a curious figure of speech. Apparently reference to cash-centric investors who were happy to settle for 5 - 5.5% returns, but who are disillusioned at the prospect of 4 - 4.5%? It’s all relative. The higher rates were available as consumer prices spiked 5 or 6% year-over-year. With annual price rises coming in at half that (or less) the return on safe money should be lower - a lot lower.
    If the question is about where to get the best short-term interest rates now, it’s a good question. I don’t really know. You pretty much have to “go with the flow” and take what’s available (if you want super-safe money). If you have a 3 year time horizon … maybe short to intermediate term bond funds? NEAR was mentioned recently. I’m looking at that and also TDTT. For 5 years out I’m using CVSIX and LQDH for my conservative money. Should net a percent or so over cash. But over shorter periods both have the potential to lose money.
    BTW - TBUX is highly rated. But it is what it is - an ultra-short bond fund. (“Nothing to see here. Move on.”)
  • Crossing Bridge question
    Pardon a dumb question - Why is it harder to manage a larger amount? To wit - Buffett claims he could do better as a small investor because adding to and disposing of holdings wouldn’t cause as much price change / front-running. But that’s a different issue. I can’t see where 5 different managers managing $1.5B ($300M each) would necessarily improve performance. How much does Giroux manage?
    Purely an academic question / no involvement in the funds under discussion.
  • Lower rates, wall of monies looking for a home?
    @Baseball_Fan. Asking myself the very same question. If this bunch of low risk money is in a taxable account the answer will be different than if a tax deferred situation. Are you willing to increase the risk level for this pile of money? Is it money you will want access to in the next 36 months or so? Sorry,,,,, more questions than answers. We knew that 5% risk free wouldn’t last forever …
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    Fred thanks,
    that's good info. Last week, NVHAX lost 1.3% and NHMAX -0.95% while other HY Munis made money.
  • Crossing Bridge question
    A proxy for estimating how CBLDX might do once the Fed cuts interest rates may be to look at how the fund has done since the 2-year treasury note peaked this year at 5.04% on April 30 (It now stands at 3.57%)
    Since April 30:
    CBLDX +2.54%
    TBIL +2.00% (3-Month T-Bill)
    OSTIX +3.76%
    SHYG +5.70%
    PYLD +7.60%
    BINC +5.47%
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?CBLDX,TBIL,OSTIX,SHYG,PYLD,BINC
    PS: Set number of days to 95 to match April 30 start date.
  • Crossing Bridge question
    Hello sfnative. I too, have thought the same about whether the extremely talented and skillful money manager David Sherman is being stretched too thin. The depth of his security analysis is phenomenal as illustrated in his quarterly commentaries, which I greatly appreciate. But how many securities can be scrutinized to that degree? I don't know. Only Mr. Sherman and his team know that answer.
    According to the most recent CrossingBridge Funds SAI, David Sherman manages roughly $1.5B and his assistant manager Kirk Whitney manages $315M. Perhaps Mr. Sherman could address whether he perceives this as being an issue going forward, and if so, how he plans to mitigate it (close CBLDX?). Thanks for the question, sfnative.
    Mike
  • WealthTrack Show
    Sept 14 Episode - Part 2 with Whitney Tilson
    Former fund manager turned financial journalist Whitney Tilson shares lessons learned from knowing and studying great investors Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and Bill Ackman.


  • PWC China Operations
    "China suspended the operations of PricewaterhouseCoopers for six months and imposed a record penalty over lapses in its auditing of China Evergrande Group. The accounting firm was fined 441 million yuan ($62 million) for its work on Evergrande’s inflated financial reports from 2018 to 2020. Regulators also ordered the closure of PwC’s branch in Guangzhou. PwC has been under scrutiny since China launched one of the biggest investigations of financial fraud in history. Authorities have said developer Evergrande’s main onshore unit Hengda overstated its revenue by 564 billion yuan in the two years through 2020. PwC “turned a blind eye” to Evergrande’s fraud, securities regulators said."
    I want to know how much PWC paid to CCP to get away with a meagre $62M fine. That is peanuts.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    I just read a little blurb on AP. In the contract there is a 25% salary gain over 4 years. Dang, doesn't sound bad to me. Cola is key.
  • Election Betting Coming at Your Broker
    AP: After just a few hours, U.S. election bets put on hold by appeals court ruling
    The Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit issued an order Thursday night temporarily freezing the matter until it can consider and rule on the issue. No timetable was initially given.
    https://apnews.com/article/betting-on-elections-kalshi-gambling-c060aad4d12f9622d36f83e525088dcc
    I'm sooo disappointed. I needed something to hedge DJT with. :-)
  • SmartETFs Advertising & Marketing Technology ETF (MRAD) will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/919160/000121390024078504/ea0214544-01_497.htm
    497 1 ea0214544-01_497.htm 497
    GUINNESS ATKINSON FUNDS
    SmARTETFS ADVERTISING & MARKETING TECHNOLOGY ETF
    Supplement dated September 13, 2024
    to the Fund’s Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) each dated May 1, 2024
    The Board of Trustees of the Guinness Atkinson Funds (the “Trust”) has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate the SmartETFs Advertising & Marketing Technology ETF (“MRAD” or the “Fund”). The Board’s determination was based on the size of the Fund and the recommendation of Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, the Fund’s investment adviser. The plan of liquidation provides that the Fund will cease its business, liquidate its assets and distribute its liquidation proceeds to all of the Fund’s shareholders of record. As of the close of regular trading on the NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE Arca”) on October 30, 2024 (the “Closing Date”), MRAD shares will cease trading on the NYSE Arca and will be closed to purchases by investors. In order to facilitate the Fund’s continued operations until liquidation, MRAD will continue to permit purchases and redemptions of creation units in the Fund until it is delisted from the exchange. Final liquidation of the Fund is currently expected to occur on or before November 6, 2024, but this date may be extended. Shareholders will receive liquidation proceeds as soon as practicable after the liquidation date.
    The Fund will be de-listed pursuant to the New York Stock Exchange’s procedures. Shareholders may sell their MRAD shares prior to the close of regular trading on the Closing Date and customary brokerage charges may apply to such transactions.
    As the liquidation of the Fund approaches, the Fund will deviate from its investment objective, investment strategies and investment policies as set forth in the Prospectus and will instead engage in business activities to wind down the Fund in an orderly manner and liquidate the Fund’s portfolio. During this period, the Fund will engage in transactions designed to convert the Fund’s assets to cash and a larger portion of the Fund’s assets will be held in cash and similar investments in order to prepare for orderly liquidation and to meet anticipated redemption requests. This may adversely affect the Fund’s investment performance. The impending liquidation of the Fund may also result in creation unit redemptions. Shareholders remaining in the Fund may bear increased transaction expenses incurred in connection with the disposition of the Fund’s portfolio holdings. Any such transaction costs would reduce any distributable net capital gains.
    If a shareholder has not redeemed his or her shares by the Closing Date, the shares will automatically be redeemed, and proceeds will be sent to the shareholder of record. Liquidation proceeds will be paid in cash at the Fund’s net asset value per share as of the close of business on the liquidation date. Once final liquidating distributions are complete, the Fund will terminate.
    The redemption of shares held by a shareholder as part of the liquidation generally will be considered a taxable event for Federal income tax purposes and may cause shareholders to recognize a gain or loss. Before the final liquidation, the Fund may make distributions of income and capital gains. These distributions will have the tax and other consequences described in the Fund’s prospectus and statement of additional information. A shareholder should consult with the shareholder’s tax advisor to discuss the Fund’s liquidation and the tax consequences to the shareholder.
    The dates set forth in this supplement may be changed without notice by the officers of the Guinness Atkinson Funds.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    Some 96 percent of union members voted in favor of the strike, rejecting a proposal that would have boosted pay and benefits even as it fell short of other demands.
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post.
    SEATTLE — Boeing workers picketed outside the company’s plants in Washington state early Friday morning after voting overwhelmingly to strike. Tens of thousands of machinists voted Thursday to reject a proposed deal between the company and the union that would have significantly boosted pay and benefits even as it fell short of other union demands.
    Some 96 percent of members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751 voted in favor of the strike — far more than the two-thirds needed to launch the work stoppage.
    The walkout is a stinging rebuke for Boeing and could represent the most disrupting challenge yet for a company that has spent much of this year in damage control as it careened from crisis to crisis.
    The strike risks derailing the aerospace giant’s recovery from ongoing financial and safety challenges and could cost the cash-strapped company an estimated $1 billion per week, according to analysts. The union plays a key role in assembling some of the company’s best-selling aircraft.
    The most direct impact is on Boeing’s assembly plants in Washington, especially in Everett and Renton. An extended work stoppage could also impact Boeing suppliers and possibly shrink its share of the aerospace market.
    Machinists in Seattle said the strike was long coming: “We just want to be treated right and they’re not doing it,” said mechanic Charles Fromong, who has worked for Boeing for more than 37 years. “So I guess we’re going to get it done.”
    Boeing said early Friday that it would return to the bargaining table: “The message was clear that the tentative agreement we reached with IAM leadership was not acceptable to the members,” the company said in a statement. “We remain committed to resetting our relationship with our employees and the union, and we are ready to get back to the table to reach a new agreement.”
    After a string of tense, marathon negotiating sessions over the last several weeks, the IAM and Boeing announced Sunday that they had reached a tentative four-year agreement, including a 25 percent pay increase over four years and enhanced health and retirement benefits. Also significant: If workers had voted to accept the deal before the current contract, Boeing committed to building its next new aircraft in Washington state, a key union demand. Both sides and investors had cheered the deal.
    “Four years is not enough to make up for the last 16,” Boeing worker Roger Ligrano said before he voted. He said he was voting to strike, in part, to give union members more time to understand a deal.
    Harold Ruffalo, who has worked for Boeing for 28 years, said after the vote results were announced that too much corporate greed is impacting the company, and workers need more money to live as inflation hits paychecks.
    The Biden administration was monitoring the situation; acting Labor Secretary Julie Su has been in contact with both sides.
    Leading up to the strike deadline, analysts said they were worried about how long a strike would last. They said that many workers have not forgotten previous rounds of negotiations in which Boeing pushed for concessions — including the end of the traditional pension program — to keep aircraft production in Washington state.
    Michael Bruno, Aviation Week Network’s executive editor for business, said in previous rounds of negotiations Boeing threatened to move airplane production to other states to extract concessions from the union, which soured relations.
    The last time IAM members struck was in 2008, a 57-day day walkout that Moody’s estimated cost Boeing about $1.5 billion a month. Boeing reopened negotiations on that contract twice, in 2011 and in 2013, and won significant concessions from workers.
  • Election Betting Coming at Your Broker
    Interactive Brokers founder, Chairman, and majority owner (75%), Thomas Peterffy, is a Mar-O-Lago Club member. He said Trump is not electable but as a Republican, he would vote for Trump. At the risk of stating the obvious, he is also a contributor to Trump campaign. Do not blame the long list of Republican politicians who fall in line with Trump and are scared for their career survival to go "Country over Party" when the non-politicians go "Party over Country." There has never been a bad leader in any profession without the enablers (any of us).
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    $$$ I'm babysitting for a fellow is in a TRP acct, limited to TRP funds. If/when the time comes, I'll move him from junk TUHYX into global multi-sector PRSNX. Good performance history, there. We've both owned it in the past, too. I'm hoping to be able to just sit with my junk. There's been no crisis--- yet.
    PRSNX is at the front side of the belly, 4.46 years. Yield is up to 5.04%, even as the fund has risen YTD by +4.63%.
    Compare TUHYX: domestic junk. YTD +6.04%, but in the bottom half of category... Yield = 7.41%. Scrumptious.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prsnx/quote
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/TUHYX/quote