M*: Cash Is No Longer Trash, but the Opportunity Cost Might Be Greater Than You Think
https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/cash-is-no-longer-trash-opportunity-cost-might-be-greater-than-you-think
This M* piece is oriented toward the long term investor:

Cash is yielding more than it has in a decade—so are equities even worth the trouble? We won’t bury the lede. The answer is still yes. But it’s a fair question. Using three-month Treasuries as a cash proxy, investors can earn more than 5% on cash. This is the highest yield since 1995. ...
[It goes on to show how much a pile of cash falls behind stocks over time, and the odds of cash doing better than stocks.]
The lesson is clear: The opportunity cost of sitting in cash is huge and grows over time. ...
There are no perfect allocations or times to invest in risk assets. ...The best thing investors can do is figure out an allocation that works for them and avoid guessing what will happen based on one’s feelings.

I let the guys running my balanced fund worry about duration, and all that stuff.
Neither have I sold anything to raise cash. Looking forward to the two CD's coming off the books to do a little shopping.

An investor who bought a 10-year US Treasury bond at a yield of 4.5 per cent would see a total return of roughly 13 per cent if that yield fell 1 percentage point over 12 months. If the recession ended up being relatively nasty and the yield fell 2 percentage points, their return would exceed 20 per cent.

How will that feel for the folks that held bonds during the preceding vaporization? Will all be forgiven?

”Cash looks tempting. With interest rates for cash in the region of 5 per cent, why not avoid the volatility that comes with stocks? And with short-rates higher than longer-term interest rates, why lock up cash in a longer-term government bond?”
https://www.ft.com/content/49c1df89-7890-4643-920b-10443a05592e
By Karen Ward
Published in The Financial Times
(Offered as a contrarian point of view)

@MikeM : You waited to long before purchasing a Camry. 2005 had more than enough room . I believe it did carry 4 golfer & 4 bags, all at the same time. Recent purchase, Subaru , 3 golfer & 3 bags.

Strange that these were all UP today ^TNX, IEF; ^TYX,TLT. The underlying markets were closed, so derived prices were used. But who derived these?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/^TNX,IEF,^TYX,TLT/view/v1
Edit/Add. Quotes for yields ^TNX, ^TYX are suspect. It seems that they had a small adjustment at the open, but didn't trade during the day. But IEF, TLT traded during the day. So, true 10y and 30y yields were really down.
Edit/Add2. Looks like CNBC Treasury yield quote page became live on Monday night. Click any entry and view the 5-day chart. https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

Crap, that is a lot of money lost! Just the three top funds ETFs, they sum up to $40 billions.
I can see ARK Innovation ETF, can loss ton of money from speculative bets. Vanguard Total bond market index, BND, for example, is in just about every investor’s portfolios including target date funds and 529 plans.

As of 0912:
SP -23.25
YM -164
Much better than when the overnight session opened...we'll see soon enough.

US Futures – PM
Stocks down
Oil up
Gold up
CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/
CME SP500 Mini https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.quotes.html#venue=globex
CME Oil WTIC https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html#venue=globex
CME Gold https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.quotes.html#venue=globex
Kitco Gold Spot Live https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Adding more to 6 month T bill and RSIIX, River Park Strategic Income, Institutional. This fund is on NTF platform at Vanguard whereas Fidelity charges $50.
David provided a detailed write-up on RSIIX/RSIVX.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/2023/04/riverpark-strategic-income-fund-rsivx-april-2023/

Hi guys,
Some old news.....
In the pullback, bought some PP&L for Mrs. Pudd's IRA --- a small starting position. Bought it at a 52-week low. Will add from there. It's a long term hold.....she is still over 90% in CDs.
Me? I'm still losing money in the market. I may soon have to ask for a loan from her 'til things get better down the road. As of right now, looking for the year end rally. Hoping to do some selling into it. Still worried about healthcare. Seems the beatings are never ending.
God bless
the Pudd
p.s., Hank----love it! lol

Agree than 3 month T bill is good for yield over 5.3% (1/4 of that for 3 months). So I am buying longer duration T bills, 6 months and 1 year T bills. 6 month is the sweet spot.
Buying individual T bills and rolling it when they mature takes a bit of work. Fidelity has that feature but Vanguard does not. Short term treasury ETFs (typically 2 yr duration) have more volatility as yields move upward. In term of trading, ETFs are liquid and easy to trade. I have not sold T bills before maturity but I understand they are readily bought and sold in secondary market. So there are plus and minuses on both options, and I use both of them.
USFR is another safe option as @yogibb noted earlier.

Several people have commented in other posts about cumulative performance figures being distorted by a recent year's hot performance ("what have you done for me lately"), including Prof. Snowball, me, and others.
In Prof. Snowball's piece (linked to above, and here), he praises BRUFX by looking at "three metrics across more meaningful stretches: multiple decades, full market cycles and the last two market crashes." BRSVX hasn't been around nearly as long as BRUFX; it started in Oct 2003. With this limitation in mind, here are the data for AVALX, PVFIX, BRSVX. I included IJS (S&P 600 value ETF) as a benchmark in the Portfolio Visualizer link for each period but did not transcribe its figures below.

Period		CAGR				Std Dev			    Sharpe Ratio
AVALX	PVFIX	BRSVX		AVALX	PVFIX	BRSVX		AVALX	PVFIX	BRSVX
15 yr	11.02%	5.54%	9.51%		28.77%	10.78%	22.81%		0.75	0.69	0.72
Full Cycle 2007-2020
6.81%	4.59%	5.24%		28.18%	10.20%	21.97%		0.35	0.41	0.30
Down Cycle 2007-2009
-5.09%	2.65%	-9.59%		36.83%	11.35%	28.03%		-0.01	0.11	-0.37

Looking at these broader picture numbers, it seems not so much that BRSVX benefited from one hot year, but rather that it doesn't do quite so well in down years. Comparing the BRSVX with AVALX not by a calendar year (i.e. 2020), but trough to peak (roughly 3/19/20 - 6/4/21), one sees similar performance though following different paths.
http://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=AVALX&id=p85687049134
It's in the latter half of 2021, when the market turned and AVALX's greater volatility worked to its detriment that the funds diverged radically.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=AVALX,IJS&id=p37670197904
PVFIX is certainly a steady performer. But at a cost of way underperforming in good years. From its chart (see the 15 year performance link above), it almost looks like a SCV cousin of RPHYX - ridiculously steady relative to peers. Something I value in a "near cash" fund. But in an equity fund, my personal risk tolerance is a bit higher than that.
If you like AVALX, did you look into DFFVX? A clone of it is available in variable annuities, e.g. TIAA. So unlike the Fidelity fund that is used only internally by Fidelity, some investors could access this fund (sort of).

Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q3–October 9, 2023)
https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
(Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q3 and YTD to 9/30/23)
Pg L2: SMALL-CAPs (SCs) have attractive relative valuations and their time may finally come; SC-value is especially attractive (some energy, financials, regional banks). But recession poses a high danger for SCs; they may be fine with SOFT LANDING. Mentioned are:
SC-Value AVUV, QRSVX, RYSEX
SC-Blend DFAS,FDSCX, FOSCX, RPMAX
SC-Growth FTXNX, NEAGX
SC-Indexed IWM, IWO, IWN (poor Russell indexes; not selective); SPSM (better S&P index))
SC-Foreign DRIOX, FISMX, MOWNX
All-Cap FLPSX (heavy in SC, MC, foreign)
(By @LewisBraham at MFO)
Pg L6: BEST MONEY MARKET Funds (MMFs). M-Mkt funds have attracted huge inflows. They offer high rates, safety and liquidity. MMF ERs matter the most. (The 2014/16 reforms introduced gates/redemption fees and 3 types of MMFs – Government, Prime-Retail, Prime-Institutional). The new 2023 reforms have removed the gates (i.e. the problematic redemption suspensions) but will allow redemption/liquidity fees when there are heavy daily outflows (5%+ of AUM). So, basically, the distinction between the Government and Prime-Retail MMFs will become less significant for large MMFs. (I don’t recall Barron’s doing the Best MMFs before)
Government MMFs AEAXX, AMAXX, FOBXX, INAXX, PCEXX
Prime-Retail FMEXX, GMGXX, IPPXX, TSCXX, VMRXX
Treasury MMFs BITXX, FZFXX, GABXX, PRTXX, UATXX
Muni MMFs FMOXX, GMHXX, MOTXX, SWTXX, VMSXX
Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Parts 1 & 2).
STREETWISE. Hurt by rising rates, REITs are now attractive. Their yields and FFOs are good; they trade at discounts from book values. REITs are better capitalized than private property owners and should benefit from the CRE weakness/consolidation; some bigger REITs may buy smaller REITs. There are growth/”hare” REITs – hotels (HST, RHP), industrial (CDP, FR), drug research facilities, apartments (ARE, CPT, UDR), senior housing (LTC, SBRA); and income/”tortoise” REITs – casinos (GLPI, VICI), nursing centers, ground leases. What about office REITs? Forget them! Headwinds include higher rates, tighter credit conditions, recession. (Real-estate has been a GICS sector since 2016; mREITs have remained with the financials.)
INCOME. Attractive PREFERREDs include the ETFs EPEI, PFF; the CEFs FFC, JPC; and individual preferreds from C, GS, WFC, etc (both $25 & $1,000). Also look at JUNIOR CORPORATE bonds from ENB and APOS/APO.
Pg L29: In 2023/Q3 (SP500 -3.27%): Among general equity funds, the best was SC-value -1.79%, and the worst was SC-growth -6.32%; ALL general equity categories were NEGATIVE. Among other equity funds, the best was natural resources +11.99%, and the worst were precious metals -9.32%, utilities -8.83% (strange mix). Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI -0.98%, world income -1.86%; ALL FI categories were NEGATIVE (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s).
LINK

Red flags for BRSVX in gross data include Morningstar 5*, Bronze; high SD. Of course, the chart tells all - all the fun was in 2021.
StockCharts, 3 Yrs https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=IJR,SPSM&id=p45673872103

In the spirit of looking differently:
Style boxes, and fund names, are becoming less than useful reference points. Anything based on the S&P 400 midcap range shows up in the small cap box. Funds that tread in less popular names from the 500, like SPGP, are more than half midcap. Vanguard value funds, like VSIAX and VMVAX, are half blend, or more. Lipper says RWJ is core, M* says value. FMIMX is a midcap blend, or a smallcap core, despite the 13.68 PE forward.
If I am looking for small caps, I now include the whole range of mid and small caps in my MFO premium search. Then I look for a Martin ratio => 1, plus alpha greater than zero, expense ratio <= 1, and since COVID for the first pass.
Adjust the expense ratio if you are on the lookout for expensive boutiques.
Once the results are in, I add the columns that I associate with "value." These days I am especially interested in their debt rating. There may be more naked swimmers out there yet to be revealed.
I have this search saved, and I am looking forward to seeing the results after the September data is loaded.

I'm still learning to navigate in a world in which the Morningstar fund screener is ... well, worthless. A once-useful tool has been reduced to being able to answer a single question: "what does Morningstar think about this fund?" Star rating, analyst rating, ESG rating: yes, yes, yes. Comparisons of absolute and risk-adjusted returns over meaningful periods? Go 'way, kid, ya bother me!
Today's adventure sought to answer the question: what are the most consistently solid small cap value funds around? I used MFO Premium to look at domestic and global funds, checked Sharpe and APR for the past 3-, 5-, 7-, 9- and 11-year periods. I found two disappointments: two Great Owl funds were consistently in or around the top five, but one was only available to Fidelity fund managers (Fido Series Intrinsic Opps) and the other (Kinetic Small Cap Opps) had a 41% stake in a single stock, Texas Land & Power.
Pinnacle Value and Aegis Value were frequently, but not always, top five funds. They're both rock solid, distinctive, tiny one-man operations.
The surprise was Bridgeway Small Cap Value, the fund that was in the top five more often that any other. Small- to micro-cap. 130 names. Quant. Five star.
All of which I was going to share until I scanned its Morningstar profile and noticed that its success was entirely driven by one year: 2021. The fund made north of 67% and left everyone in the dust. That number then elevated all of the trailing comparisons. It otherwise trailed more than two-thirds of its peers in five of the past 11 years. It's trailed its index six times but I have no idea of what to make of it since it's a custom Morningstar index which apparently cannot be entered into their charting tool to generate a detailed comparison ... though I can get the index denominated in Euros, pounds, Canadian dollars...). Overall, 2020-2022 was a solid stretch for the fund. 2013-19 and 2023, not so much.
All of which I share as a cautionary tale: look carefully, then look again, differently.

I am using USFR (floating-rate Treasury Note ETF). These FRNs pay 3m yield (reset weekly, so little duration) PLUS a spread MINUS the ETF ER (15 bps). The FRNs have been attractive since mid-2022 when the Fed started raising rates. Think of FRNs as 3m on weekly roll.

Yahoo historical prices show TYX yield hitting 5.05 earlier, back down in the 4.90s since. The 20y is solidly > 5%, 5.13 as I type.

On VERY strong jobs report & BIDEN's news conference later (probably on jobs), today may be the day the 30-yr crosses 5% during market hours. The link in OP is a LIVE link, so click it to refresh.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^TYX?p=^TYX
Edit/Add. 5%+ print for $TYX (30-yr) at StockCharts.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX&amp;p=D&amp;b=5&amp;g=0&amp;id=p32355405502