Hi guys,
Have opened a position in IEO today for 89.31. Sold it earlier for 96.62. Will add on weakness, sell on strength. What I really want is natural gas. Will see how things go.
God bless
the Pudd

From an email that I received from Rondure ("Final Shareholder Letter"):
September 25, 2024
Dear Fellow Shareholders:
It is with heavy hearts and thoughtful consideration that we inform you that the Rondure New World Fund (RNWOX/RNWIX) will be liquidated on October 18, 2024, and with this closure, we will also be closing Rondure Global Advisors.
The economic landscape of our emerging markets-focused strategies has been challenging for some time. Our entire team has been dedicated to facing those challenges with the constant objective to achieve long-term positive returns for our clients and investors. Unfortunately, recent unforeseen developments within our business have forced us to reevaluate our ability to continue. It is a painful outcome and certainly not a decision we anticipated ever having to make, particularly when we think emerging markets remain such an interesting and compelling long-term investment. We did not make this decision lightly, but ultimately, consideration of the economic and operational realities of continuing the firm have led us to realize closing is the best outcome for our clients.
As an investor in the Rondure New World Fund, you have two options: a) redeem your account prior to October 18, 2024, or b) receive a check for the value of the account shortly after October 18th. Note: If you hold the New World Fund in a taxable account, the IRS will consider either option to be a taxable event.
We would like to thank you for all the years together. It was truly a pleasure serving you; we wish we could continue. We are proud of Rondure and the contribution we’ve made to international investing and diversity within our industry. If you, like us, remain intrigued by the long-term opportunities in the emerging markets space, we have talked with Grandeur Peak Global Advisors about allowing Rondure clients to invest in their soft closed Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Fund (GPEIX). If you’re interested in exploring this option, please reach out to [email protected] to discuss their Fund and a purchase waiver.
Please let us know if we can be of assistance through this transition, or feel free to call the Rondure Funds shareholder services team at 1-855-775-3337.
Thank you for your understanding and support.
Best regards,
The Rondure Global Advisors Team
Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a Rondure Fund prospectus, containing this and other information, visit www.rondureglobal.com or call 1.855.775.3337. To obtain a Grandeur Peak Funds prospectus, containing investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, visit www.grandeurpeakglobal.com or call 1-855-377-PEAK (7325).
Rondure Funds and Grandeur Peak Funds are distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC (Member FINRA / SIPC). Northern Lights Distributors, LLC, is not affiliated with Rondure Global Advisors or Grandeur Peak Global Advisors.
20240911-3842017

AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/25/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (49.6%, high) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (23.7%, below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (26.7%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +25.9% (high). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (135+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (50+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 68.35% (positive). Commodities & EMs have benefitted from the Fed rate cut. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1670/thread

Schwab Asset Management Announces ETF Share Splits
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240925837158/en/
Looks like they're targeting 25-30 price per share on these popular ETFs after the split.....

The ER fields for etf in the filing are blank. Hopefully, they will be lower than their OEF counterparts.
SGENX (ER 1.1%) is no-load/NTF at Fido & Schwab, but the ER is higher than SGIIX (ER 0.86%). Fund has always held some gold in the portfolio (see Other).

How long to stick with the miners?
Maybe this is the break-glass market I've been waiting for.
We'll see if USAGX gets within sniffing distance of what I paid in December 2012.

@hank this is a piece I received from Rosenberg (David) Research today.
Memo To Treasury Market Investors: Chill!
Okay, I am getting inundated enough now regarding the sloppy behavior by the Treasury market since the Fed cut rates -50 basis points last week that it deserves a response. A little bit of history is in order.
When the Fed cut rates -50 basis points at the onset of the easing cycle that commenced on September 18th, 2007 (from 5.25% to 4.75%), the 10-year T-note yield actually popped the next day to 4.55% from 4.47%. That is because investors bought into the view that the rate cut was better for the equity market than it was for the bond market because, like now, there were visions of rate cuts being coupled with a “no landing” economic scenario. By October 12th that year, the 10-year T-note rate had risen to 4.70% for a +20-basis point increase in the 10-year T-note and my phone was ringing off the hook: “WTF is going on?” I preached patience then as I do now. At the lows, the 10-year T-note yield hit 2.08%.
The same thing happened on January 3rd, 2001, when the Greenspan Fed cut -50 basis points in a surprise intermeeting move, and the 10-year T-note yield spiked to 5.14% that very day from 4.92% the day before as fund flows went straight into the stock market, and for the very same reason cited above. Because nobody had a recession in their sights, the 10-year T-note yield was sitting at 5.4% by the end of May 2001 — up nearly +50 basis points from the point right before the Fed had engaged in that jumbo cut. Where did the yield bottom? Try 3.13%. Nothing moves in a straight line, is all, and the reality is that bonds typically do rally in Fed easing cycles, short or long, and whether or not a recession ensues.
What about that -50-basis point rate cut on February 1st, 1991? That followed nearly a dozen -25 basis point moves, and that day, the 10-year T-note yield closed at 7.91% — only to then rise to 8.25% by March 19th and then to 8.36% by July 9th. But what a buying opportunity it proved to be because the fundamental low was 5.19%.
Go back to the first jumbo cut of -50 basis points on October 11th, 1984 (after a pair of -25 basis point cuts) and the 10-year T-note yield again refused to rally initially — it was 12.31% that day, and days later, it was sitting at 12.32% — and yet, the low was 7% and this did not even require a recession. Just sustained disinflation.
So, stay the course and stop freaking out over daily or weekly gyrations. History shows that equity investors rejoice more than bond investors do to the initial jumbo rate cut. But the early “sell the fact” that engulfs the bond market proves to be a very attractive buying opportunity because in disinflation cycles, when the Fed is easing, with or without a classic recession, the trough in Treasury yields is down the road. And history shows that, on average, the decline in the 10-year T-note yield from the start of the first jumbo cut to the low is closer to -300 basis points. That would put sub-2% in sight for the 10-year T-note, as an aside.

Just one day. But the 10-year was anything but “golden” today. Rose .062 ppt to 3.795%. Has been doing a slow climb ever since the Fed cut the discount rate last week. So, chances are some intermediate / long-term bond funds have taken a bit of a hit over the past week - esp today.
Rieder has a good reputation and talks a good game. “Bubbly” with enthusiasm for bonds whenever he appeared on Bloomberg the past 12-18 months. For some stability (not looking to make a lot) I sent a chunk to a Gundlach investment grade bond etf last week. Never invested with him. Was very impressed by an hour long interview a few months ago - his intelligence & his read on the longer term macro. I posted the video here. But got the sense from lack of board interest Mr. G may have fallen out of favor.
Thanks for the great thread @Junkster

The 401k is responsible for more millionaires than any other way of investing IMO. how companies manage their offerings is so different. Prior to the aforementioned gig, I along with the business owners son was tasked with finding a new plan as we were growing tired of our SIMPLE IRA's custodians neglect and then eventual pivot to most of us at the small company desperately "needing" whole life insurance.
We found a great 401k option and acted on it. but we were an office of 30 and appalled at the number of people opting out of it all together. most manager/tenured people saw the value but the base workers were all like nah. We decided to auto-enroll and match 3% of the salary regardless of contribution.
That company, after I left, was sold and I remain great friends with the owners son who said there are still many who's accounts still reside at the 401k.
So there is a ton of behavioral issues that need to be addressed. Sometimes i feel like we could begin to take a % of peoples SS deductions and auto-enroll them in the TSP plan.

Blog - https://bilello.blog/2024/the-week-in-charts-9-25-24
These got my attention -
The 20% gain in the S&P 500 is the best start to a year since 1997 and 17th best in history.
Retail sales grew 2.1% over the last year, well below the historical average of 4.6%. And if we adjust for higher prices, they actually fell 0.5% versus the typical inflation-adjusted gain of 2%.
The Personal Savings Rate in the US has moved down to 2.9% . . .The average savings rate over the last 30 years is 5.8%.
The months’ supply of Existing Homes has moved up to 4.2
[If I remove from the chart the 2005 to 2012 years supply skewed by housing fraud, 4.2 months supply looks pretty normal to me on the chart. Existing home supply seems pretty good and if there is not enough demand, then watch for prices to come down.]

Any one intetested in WBA (Walgreens) at $8.30, with a dividend yield of nearly 12% (Yahoo Finance)?

Hi @mskursh Welcome to MFO. I think you'll find this forum of value.
And 'hats off to you' for helping co-workers have a better understanding of investing.
401k's and/or 403b's are surely not perfect depending on the plan sponsor and the amount of support by the employer; but I saw too many over many years who wouldn't have saved a dime if not for having a 401k/403b plan available. And, of course; some will never learn or have prudent spending/saving habits.
I operated an investment club within a small office and convinced 15 of 25 people to place $100/month into the account and I would manage the money. I also provided a monthly report of all values and totals; and where and why the money was invested. The club operated from 1985 to about 1992, until disbanded by vote. But, the $100/month formed good habits for many; and this helped them later when a 401k plan became available.
Remain curious,
Catch

A few minutes ago I pointed out that Howard Marks fails to contemplate or incorporate any modifications to reflect the necessity of ... attempting to control the inevitable manipulations of large financial interests. Coincidentally I just happened across this from NPR:

The Justice Department sued Visa on Tuesday, accusing the company of illegally monopolizing the debit card market and therefore driving up prices for businesses and consumers.
The lawsuit, filed in the Southern District of New York, says Visa handles more than 60% of debit card transactions in the U.S. and collects more than $7 billion in annual processing fees. The company allegedly used its market power to stifle competition and keep fees artificially high, according to the suit.
"We allege that Visa has unlawfully amassed the power to extract fees that far exceed what it could charge in a competitive market," Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement. "Merchants and banks pass along those costs to consumers, either by raising prices or reducing quality or service. As a result, Visa's unlawful conduct affects not just the price of one thing — but the price of nearly everything."

Q.E.D.

2 issues here. Cryptos & the SEC mode of operation.
I was pointing to the "Exemption" racket by deliberate misnaming the SEC. So, make tough rules and then grant exemptions one by one, then hundreds, even thousands - unlike IRS Letters or Rulings that are almost treated as added rules.
So, the SEC allowed eTFs to operate for 30+ years as exemptions for the mutual fund rules - when those were written in 1930s and 1940s, nobody had heard of, or imagined, eTFs. Only a couple of years ago, the SEC had new and formal rules for ETFs - it should have had those in 1990s.
This ad-hoc way of operation by the SEC is becoming a joke - and the cryptos are just its current football, tomorrow it will be something else.

Securities & "Exemptions" Commission to issue SAB 121 exemption to BoNY Mellon/BK re crypto custody.
Edit/Add
https://bitcoinist.com/bny-mellon-cleared-for-bitcoin-custody/
https://unchainedcrypto.com/bank-of-new-york-mellon-identified-as-first-bank-to-receive-sec-exemption-from-sab-121/

Howard Marks credits his initial understanding of different economic systems to a book he read in junior high school!
Lengthy excerpt from near the conclusion:
“My first step toward understanding the workings of the various economic systems came in junior high school in the late 1950s, when I read George Orwell’s Animal Farm. Orwell wrote it in 1945 as a thinly veiled critique of Russia and communism/socialism. That book taught me most of what I needed to know about free markets versus command economies. If you haven’t read it, or if you read it so long ago that you can’t remember what it says, I suggest you pick it up.
“In the allegory of Animal Farm, the animals took over the running of the farm. For me, the key lesson emanates from the motto they painted on the barn wall, borrowed from Karl Marx: “From each according to his ability; to each according to his needs.”
“What an idealistic statement! It would be great if everyone produced all they could, with the more able members of society producing more. And it would be great if everyone got what they need, with needier individuals getting more. But, as the animals on the farm soon learned, if workers only get to keep what they need, there’s no incentive for the more able among them to put in the additional effort required to produce a surplus from which to fill the needs of the less able. The great challenge, of course, is to strike the proper balance: to take enough from the successful in the form of taxes to fund services, government programs, and wealth transfers without eroding their incentive to work or encouraging them to seek out low-tax jurisdictions.”

” … I did not read the rest of the thread, except the last two posts.”

Well, I surely would encourage you to read the entire thread. Howard Marks is one of @Mark’s and my favorite financial writers. Admittedly, he can be a tough read. But he provides a valuable, somewhat unique perspective on valuations and investor attitude. ISTM he goes “off the rails” a bit here. I’ve not known him to wade into politics before. But none of us is exempt from all the shouting / loud political posturing and promises being made in the run up to Nov. 5.
I also thought @Crash made some salient points and his comparison to Denmark adds to Howard Marks’ analysis of the U.S. at this juncture.
Don’t get caught up in the sparring with OJ. Been going on for about 15 years. Never ends. But truth be told - I like him. And he adds immensely to the board.

Let's test fund flow and look at taxable bond as an example.
Inflow was going high from early July to mid July. From mid July to mid Aug is was an outflow.
Now, look at a 4 months chart of BND(https://schrts.co/EdAKFnRT). In the first period, BND was up about 2%. In the second period, it was up more than 2%.
Second test, BND is the US tot bond index, which is held by millions. THOPX is an unknown fund. What do you think matters more during the first 6 months of 2024? the amount of flow or the performance? See the chart(https://schrts.co/QxETIhez).
To be more specific I also found the following (link) "February 2024 was a big month for Fixed Income funds"
Look at the first 6 months chart of BND, do you see how BND did later? I'm sure BND got more flows than THOPX.

The Week in Charts (09/23/24)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:25 Free Wealth Path Analysis
01:11 Topics
02:14 The Easing Cycle Has Begun
15:15 Everything Is Up
18:32 Is the Consumer Pulling Back?
24:50 Will Lower Mortgage Rates Unfreeze the Housing Market?
29:42 The Other Side of Mania
31:34 Democratizing Education
Video
Blog - 09/23 blog not currently available