I never cared about crowding in bonds and stock funds years ago for about 30 years now. It meant that I'm in the right fund/category and made good money.
We have been hearing about the big tech companies crowded trade for about 15 years.
Do I really want to be in the unloved/uncrowded ones that are lagging?
And that's why I jump on the new leaders, and many times they lead for months and years.
There is only one undeniable indicator: the price, and why I watch for uptrends. Never predict and never front run.
Remember: in early 2024 many predicted 6-7 rate cuts and SP500 to finish at about 4900. Both were wrong so far.

Stock fund flows have been declining since mid-July and money has been leaving stock funds since early-August despite new highs for major indexes.
Flows into m-mkt funds have slowed since September.
Where is money going?
BONDS - taxable bonds & muni bonds.
This is from Barron's Cash Track that shows weekly flows.

Down 10% today and now $12.15 in today's AH trading..... it's still $12 over-valued, imho.
For context, today's volume was ~19.2m shares, the average is ~9m.

The table towards the end of the JAAA article (in last Junkster post) is worth a look. Gives historical metrics farther back (Jan 2012) than JAAA inception (post Covid) and I was a bit surprised by the differences in worst Quarter vs best Quarter relative to the same IG corp credit. As the article says, do not put your short term cash needs into this fund. So, I was wrong in using JAAA as a cash substitute! I had read this article previously but not to the end, thinking it is just a promotional article. Thanks @junkster for bringing it up again.
I generally do not read SA articles but gave it a shot with the last article in FD’s post. A good article and expanded on the info I mentioned above and is a well balanced article. One thing this article emphasized worth noting is that though the default losses for CLOs relative to senior loans is lower, the volatility for CLOs is higher. I have to contemplate why the CLO structure makes default losses lower at the same credit rating but from experience I have to agree with the volatility statement made by the article. It is possible the rating agencies underrate CLOs. Thanks @FD1000.

From the track map published with that link: watch out, Apalachicola.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/225635/000119312524221496/d862021d497.htm
BLACKROCK MUNICIPAL BOND FUND, INC.
BlackRock High Yield Municipal Fund
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated September 18, 2024 to the Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information of the Fund, each dated October 24, 2023, as supplemented to date
At a meeting held on September 13, 2024, the Board of Directors of BlackRock Municipal Bond Fund, Inc. (the “Board”), on behalf of the Fund, approved the Reorganization (as defined below) of the Fund into an exchange-traded fund (“ETF”), which will be managed by BlackRock Fund Advisors, an investment adviser under common control with BlackRock Advisors, LLC, the Fund’s current investment adviser (“BlackRock”). The Board, including all of the Directors who are not “interested persons” (as defined in the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended) of the Company, determined, with respect to the Reorganization, that participation in the Reorganization is in the best interests of the Fund and the interests of existing shareholders of the Fund will not be diluted as a result of the Reorganization.
The Fund will be reorganized into an ETF through the reorganization of the Fund into a newly-created ETF, iShares High Yield Muni Active ETF (the “Acquiring Fund”), which is a series of BlackRock ETF Trust II. The Fund and the Acquiring Fund have identical investment objectives and fundamental investment policies and substantially similar investment strategies. Following the reorganization, the Fund will be liquidated (such reorganization and liquidation, the “Reorganization”).
The Reorganization is anticipated to close as of the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on February 7, 2025. The Acquiring Fund has not commenced investment operations.
Importantly, in order to receive shares of the Acquiring Fund as part of the Reorganization, Fund shareholders must hold their shares of the Fund through a brokerage account that can accept shares of an ETF (the Acquiring Fund). If Fund shareholders do not hold their shares of the Fund through that type of brokerage account, they will not receive shares of the Acquiring Fund as part of the Reorganization. For Fund shareholders that do not currently hold their shares of the Fund through a brokerage account that can hold shares of the Acquiring Fund, please see the Q&A that follows for additional actions that such Fund shareholders must take to receive shares of the Acquiring Fund as part of the Reorganization. No further action is required for Fund shareholders that hold shares of the Fund through a brokerage account that can hold shares of the Acquiring Fund.
BlackRock believes that the Reorganization will provide multiple benefits for investors of the Fund, including lower net expenses, additional trading flexibility and increased portfolio holdings transparency.
The Reorganization will be conducted pursuant to an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”). The Reorganization is structured to be a tax‑free reorganization under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended. As a result, Fund shareholders generally will not recognize a taxable gain (or loss) for U.S. tax purposes as a result of the Reorganization (except with respect to cash received, as explained elsewhere in this Supplement).
In connection with the Reorganization, shareholders of the Fund will receive ETF shares of the Acquiring Fund equal in value to the number of shares of the Fund they own, including a cash payment in lieu of fractional shares of the Acquiring Fund, which cash payment may be taxable.
Completion of the Reorganization is subject to a number of conditions under the Plan, but shareholders of the Fund are not required to approve the Reorganization. Existing Fund shareholders will receive a combined prospectus/information statement describing in detail both the Reorganization and the Acquiring Fund, and summarizing the Board’s considerations in approving the Reorganization...

"For institutional investors looking for diversification strategies, collateralized loan obligations can be a stable option that provides downside protection in an uncertain macro environment. A market that tops $1 trillion, CLOs are floating-rate instruments that sit within the larger structured credit market. They have different tranches, each with its own risk-reward profile, cash flow structure and credit rating. As such, CLOs can fit into different allocation sleeves within an institutional portfolio. CLO managers Barings, Polen Capital and Sycamore Tree Capital Partners dig into current market dynamics and the potential impact of lower rates on the asset class. They unpack what increased CLO issuance means for investors and highlight manager characteristics needed to successfully navigate this market."
https://www.pionline.com/CLOs-strategy2024

Regarding CBYYX where a few are invested including me. I re entered this fund in July after Hurricane Beryl had no impact whatsoever. Hurricane Beryl was a cat 5 and broke all sorts of meteorological records. Yet none of the cat bonds got hit. Since Beryl the cat bonds have been the best performers in Bondville even outperforming the S@P. Oddly enough almost all the gains have come on Fridays. Unlike earlier in the season predictions, this has been a historically quiet hurricane and tropical storm season. Partly due to of all things Sahara dust in the atmosphere.
There is another possible cat 4 or 5 storm brewing in the Gulf now to be named Helene. It may prove to be much ado about nothing as it is still developing or it could be another Hurricane Ian. Hurricane Ian was almost two years ago to the date and one of the most destructive on record for the reinsurance market. The cat bonds trading back then plummeted 15% in a matter of a few days. So being better safe than sorry selling out of my cat bond position today. Will probably re enter next week. Going back some twenty years there have only been three hurricanes that have impacted the cat bond market. So the odds of this impeding weather pattern being meaningful is extremely low. But again, for me would prefer to err on the side of caution.
https://www.artemis.bm/news/helene-may-strike-gulf-coast-as-hurricane-this-week-wide-range-of-model-intensity-forecasts/

@FD1000 Thanks for the archive.fo link. That is new to me. (I had to look up where the Faroe Islands are located.)

There has to be a happy medium. allocations in defined benefit plans are too risk averse for the young worker. (this is changing I read where allocations to stocks in many state plans is growing. what was once the norm (a 30/70 stock/bond allocation) is not in some places 50/50 (IL is considering 60/40).
But it solves the "me" problem lots of people face. I don't know how much to save, have the where with all to save it and don't have any idea how to pay myself.
the 401k introduces a ton of freedoms and is probably responsible for more millionaires than ever before which is great but I think the roll out of the 401k was awful and still to this day pretty rough for most providers.
I think automatic opt-in rule is fantastic and I think there needs to be more of that stuff.
the 401k programs have come a long way but its taken too long. There is a friend of my father who put money in his 401k for almost a decade during the 90's before he realized that none of it was invested in anything. just sitting in the account. there was no training not anything.
but even today at my old job they would have meetings every 6 months on how to participate once enrolled. it was the most convoluted hour on the planet. In my dept, people know that I pay attention to this stuff (the type of guy to have an account on a website like this) and I usually get "hey can you help me?" I'm also older and they are usually in their 20's and so I say "if you were my child, this is what I'd recommend" I give them "if you can" and call it a day. they are like this is much more helpful than anything in that meeting.

Good thread.
Juan de la HOZ has been discussing CLOZ and explaining it in simple language since 8/2023. See (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4627176-cloz-bbb-bb-clo-etf-strong-10-7-percent-sec-yield-low-interest-rate-risk).
He published another article in March 2024 (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677263-cloz-high-yield-clo-debt-etf-strong-9-6-percent-outstanding-performance).
Another one is JBBB VS CLOZ (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4689549-jbbb-versus-cloz-which-high-yield-clo-etf-is-best-for-income-investors)
Sorry if you can't read it.

+1 / Yes, that’s pretty much the gist of the more bearish money managers I’ve listened to of late. One I heard recently (sorry don’t have name) thinks China will blockade Taiwan sometime in the next 10 years. Doesn’t see an effective U.S. response. I don’t know …. Just passing on …
Fear is not an investment strategy.

Hi @BaluBalu

"Some bond NAV's had positive moves after NOON, on Friday." Do you mean price? If not, which bond [fund?] NAVs do you follow?

Yes, the NAV's are the price; or what we would pay to buy a particular etf through the day. This isn't necessarily critical information; but allowed me to think that buying, at the week ending (Friday), was taking place after being down from the previous days. One may look at this link below, again on Monday and follow the pricing to discover whether there is any follow through in buying from the week end.
I can't provide anything useful about PFF; but apparently the current investments are in the proper places at this time. We do not hold this etf.
I follow about 20 funds via Google Finance. About 8 of them are investments we hold, but others are market sector etf's; be they bond or equity related. One may create their own 'follow' list at Google Finance, without the need to 'sign in'; unless there have been changes I'm not aware of. You may give it a try to discover if there is any value, if you really choose to follow items through the day. Otherwise, you can enter a ticker as needed for a 'look'.
This is what the etf PFF looks like for 1 day at Google Finance, which is this past Friday. You may also click 5 day to see all of last week and price moves. Return numbers do not include distributions; so not total return, to the best of my knowledge.
M* quote page for PFF. This is the Friday data on the graph. One can see the price rotation to positive after NOON. The etf IEF and other bond etf's show a similar pattern. You may save this page link and type in any ticker in the search at the top for a quote; and/or click on the 'performance' icon for that info.
Lastly, this is all for now. Our COVID funk is still hanging around with fatigue; and for me, I've lost my sense of taste...........bummer, for sure.

How will CLOs, which typically involve floating-rate loans, react while the Fed is easing rates?

If you want to read a nice essay on that very topic see the attached link
https://www.janushenderson.com/corporate/article/do-aaa-clos-still-make-sense-in-a-declining-rate-environment/#:~:text=However, when rates start to,rates hypothetically go to zero.
Also don’t confuse the floating rate bonds in CLOs with the floating rate bank loan funds. Everything floating rate related in Bondland has held up well so far after the rate cuts. The BBB CLOs would be susceptible to recession fears. Lastly check out the chart below of investment grade CLO PAAA. Talk about picture perfect.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?PAAA

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/16/blackrocks-rick-rieder-says-a-golden-age-for-fixed-income-begins-this-week-with-the-fed-rate-cut.html
From last Monday. “ Take advantage of this golden age for fixed income….and buy yield and just watch it do its thing”. He likes securitized products, high yield, and European credit, Breaking that down further agency residential mortgages, and CLOs. Especially investment rated CLOs which he believes are a bargain. I have always thought Mr Rider the CIO of BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income division and responsible for 2.4 trillion in assets had more of a clue that most other so called bond gurus.
On a related note re bonds. A case could be made that the real golden age for bonds began last year in 2023. We had double digit gains throughout various categories ala high yield, bank loans, catastrophe bonds, emerging markets debt, and BBB CLOs as well as many specific funds in the non traditional and multi bond sectors. The bond hybrid categories of convertibles and preferred also saw several funds churning out double digit returns.

"Some bond NAV's had positive moves after NOON, on Friday." Do you mean price? If not, which bond [fund?] NAVs do you follow?
I think a deeper dive into PFF would be good for us to understand its TR behavior YTD and its prospects going forward (on any time scale you prefer). As I look at TLT or IEF, PFF did very well. Was the difference driven by getting to par ($25, $1000, whatever it holds) because equities (credit?) have done well or something else? So, is a higher duration BBB- / BB+ fund a good approximation for PFF, except prefered's tilt to financial sector?
I plan to look into later -
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239826/PFF?cid=ppc:ishares_us:google:fund-names&gad_source=1&gclsrc=ds

NOTE:

My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the select bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.

W/E September 20, 2024..... FED actions = mixed returns for bonds
--- With FED Reserve actions this week found the w/e with mixed results for bond sectors. High yield is still happy, quality corp. bonds did well, as did short duration TIPs related, short duration Treasury was mixed and long duration was NOT very happy. Some bond NAV's had positive moves after NOON, on Friday.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, September 16 - September 20, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 5.04% yield. MMKT's yields found LARGE yield drops after Wednesday (FED Reserve) . Fidelity's MMKT's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MMKT's. As a percentage of YIELD, yields were down from 1.42% through 2.14% for 3 Fido MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. SOFR rates had a yield drop of -9.57%. WHAT is SOFR?

--- AGG = -.26% / +4.77% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.17% / +4.40% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.07% / +4.07% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +1.06% / +4.29% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -.47% / +4.48% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +.10% / +4.92% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = +.28% / +4.87% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = +.24% / +4.92% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -.41% / +4.93% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -1.54% / +2.65% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -2.08% / +1.62% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -2.47% / -.31% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +3.06% / +.52% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -4.64% / -6.07% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -.20% / +5.21% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = +.21% / +5.58% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = +.19% / +5.53% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = +.79% / +8.04% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.07%/+5.31% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = -.07% /+1.95% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = +.65%/+8.63% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +1.20% / +5.64% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = +1.49% / +11.86% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 5.04% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch

Funds report flows differently. Some, like QQQ daily and timely; others, monthly and timely. And even others, monthly, but lagging a month, like DODGX. Historically, some have both daily and monthly.
The FLOW chart will depict however they report: flow, net flow, return, and aum.
The FLOWS chart, which enables fund flow (or aum) comparisons, is month ending only.
Flow and aum roll-up to oldest share class level throughout site.
Lipper drops full flow data twice each month: 1st and 3rd Saturdays. We then try to post latest later that day or next morning.