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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    17 nov. '23.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-11-18/wall-street-week-11-17-2023-video
    Dan Senor's book on the Israeli economy. Timely? Or shameless plug--- for the book and for Israel? No one's talking about Palestine's economy, ARE they? It's been strangled by... you know. Anyhow, Dan was interesting and said pretty much what I'd have expected.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Itching to buy some ASC.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4652518-ardmore-shipping-stock-q3-earnings-continue-to-add-my-value-portfolio?utm_source=stck.pro&utm_medium=referral
    Ya, that source is suspect with many of us here. But since lately, somehow--- I've been able to get in and read the articles--- I've been paying attention. I always look at several sources of information before making a decision, or adding a prospect to my list.
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    @WABAC: we are organic coffee drinkers and my wife buys from Aldi who offers good Peruvian or Honduran beans. I prefer a much darker roast, so I order online. $10 per lb. for good organic coffee is a good price these days.
    My daughter alerted me to huge increases in MI car insurance and I have to shop around. My current insurer came in dead last in recent Consumer Reports ratings, although I had no complaints. MI had the highest rates in the country, but passed legislation under Gov Whitmer to "fix" the problem of insurers paying forever for accident victims' claims. Now no one is happy and more corrective action is promised. Did rates go down? Of course not.
    Owning old used cars solves our rate issues. :)
    I buy Sumatra and Ethiopian beans at TJ's and grind them together.
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    After several decades, I switched car insurance companies last year after GEICO jacked me up nearly 40%. (Went w/regional Erie for significant savings on more coverages). Even better, I went from a 2017 BMW 340 to a top-line 2024 Acura MDX and my premium went up an outrageous $36/yr .. the horror!
    It's interesting how the companies advertising to the masses how 'cheap' they are (GEICO, Progressive, SF, etc) are paying thru the nose to message that, which they end up passing along to policyholders. (This is especially noticeable during NFL season.) And by trying to appeal to the masses, their risk profile goes up and *everyone* suffers by having to pay for those bad apples they underwrite. By contrast, Erie doesn't advertise, is regional, and more selective in whom they underwrite and thus are exposed to riskwise -- which to me sounds kind of Vanguard-y in its approach.
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    Yeah. It’s a state by state issue. I like my local insurance agent with 5-day a week walk in or call service. Took great care of me after a big truck rear ended my rented car in Florida 10 years ago. (“No-fault” state). I never add the optional rental insurance. Was glad they stepped in and covered the full cost of the car which was totaled. If you wreck a rental, the company really inflates that “cost” thru various gimmicks.
    I was in the office with her as we walked through the various deductibles & savings. Struck a happy medium. Helped in my case. The ‘18 hybrid has higher rates due in large measure to: (1) being more expensive to repair and (2) higher incidence of pedestrian related deaths / injuries due to how quiet they are at low speeds. Goodness. Electric cars must have the same problem.
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    @WABAC: we are organic coffee drinkers and my wife buys from Aldi who offers good Peruvian or Honduran beans. I prefer a much darker roast, so I order online. $10 per lb. for good organic coffee is a good price these days.
    My daughter alerted me to huge increases in MI car insurance and I have to shop around. My current insurer came in dead last in recent Consumer Reports ratings, although I had no complaints. MI had the highest rates in the country, but passed legislation under Gov Whitmer to "fix" the problem of insurers paying forever for accident victims' claims. Now no one is happy and more corrective action is promised. Did rates go down? Of course not.
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    I buy coffee at Trader Joe's. Seems pretty reasonable to me so far. But they keep cutting back on products I used to go there for.
    And now there's an Aldi's just down the street. I'll have to see what they have. I now buy all the dairy from them. Bagels and cream cheese are near 1/3 the price of what they cost at Albertsons.
  • Should you invest in the assets or the asset manager
    Summary
    ° Asset management is a cash-minting machine of an industry with infinite growth capabilities. But, there's a catch.
    ° BlackRock and Vanguard have destroyed the traditional mutual fund industry, and now there is only one place left with fat fees.
    ° Alternative asset management is a $20 trillion industry, growing at 35% and charging about 5X higher fees than BlackRock or Vanguard.
    ° Management teams consistently earn $60 to $600 million per year and are worth it, generating Buffett-like 20% returns for investors over the last decade.
    ° Blackstone Inc. is the king of alternative assets with $1 trillion in assets, and Apollo Global Management, Inc. is #3 and the king of private credit. One of these is currently a good buy and capable of 4X the short-term returns of the other.
    A SeekingAlpha article HERE
  • Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling ....
    I increased auto deductible to reduce premium at the last big increase.
    I went from $1,000 to $2500 collision deductible to save when bought my last new car in 2018. The agent seemed to think that’s high.
    @Devo said “Cumulative inflation”. That’s how I look at it too. Similar to how interest compounds year to year. Didn’t Einstein call compound interest the 8th wonder of the world?
    I don’t want to pee rain on anybody’s parade. Views differ on this. @msf has documented very well the actual inflation rate based on the CPI index and has explained in past threads how that index is maintained / calculated. I wouldn’t argue with him.
    I think we do tend to react more to increases on prices of items we buy more than we do to reduced prices on what we buy. From what I hear there’s a glut of chicken & pork right now. Prices are down from a year ago. On the other hand, what in #@*# has happened to the cost of a bag of coffee? As an occasional scotch drinker, I’ve noticed that prices have remained very stable in my state for the past 5+ years. A bottle of JWB can still be had here for under $40, where it’s been for most of the past decade. Maybe drink more scotch and less coffee?
  • PV - SWR, PWR (& SWRM)
    @yogibearbull, thanks for your work. Can I ask a couple questions so i can not assume I understand the data?
    - the SWR gives the "initial" withdrawal for that period? Does it increase yearly for inflation? And finally, it is the withdrawal that would have taken the original balance to zero in 2023?
    - SWRM, same questions but this withdrawal rate would take the balance to the original staring balance in 2023?
    Very interesting that these withdrawals are mostly above the 4%. Contrary to opinions now that starting withdrawals should be 3.5% or lower.
    As I rely on Portfolio Visualizer (PV) data, I have to follow its assumptions/conventions.
    So, for SWR, the balance would be near zero at 2022 yearend AFTER the withdrawal, but that would feed monthly withdrawals through 2023.
    Similar for SWRM, but that original amount would be inflation-adjusted. So, if the starting amount was $100,000 on 1/1/20, the ending amount at 2022 yearend AFTER the withdrawal would be near $182,883. One can do whatever with that amount.
  • California Is Going to Drop a Liquidity Bomb on The Stock Market
    Follow up on this...
    The stock market in 2023 has been tracking the Annual Seasonal Pattern (ASP) really closely, that is until a late October 2023 extra dip in stock prices that was not on the ASP's program. Since that dip, stock prices have been rallying hard to get back on track. But why did that dip happen?
    Blame Californians. I wrote here back on July 21, 2023 about how the IRS had changed the tax filing and payment deadlines for most of California, because of flooding rains in January on previously burned areas that led to a lot of flooding. This led to disaster declarations, and a ruling by the IRS that taxpayers in 51 of California's 54 counties would get an extension to October 16, 2023 for filing their 2022 taxes. That extension also included a delay in having to pay any amounts owed for 2022, plus all quarterly estimated payments in 2023.
    Because of this extension, smart Californians held onto their money and their tax returns until just before the deadline, presumably earning at least money market interest rates on it, but denying those tax dollars to Uncle Sam. California has 15% of the US population, but it also has more than its share of millionaires who have the wherewithal (and the accountants) to do this sort of tax planning.
    Why this relates to the stock market is that we have learned from the Fed's QE and QT episodes that having money in the banks is helpful for boosting stock prices. But when a bunch of Californians all wrote their tax payment checks to the IRS in October, that created a sudden drain in the liquidity pool. The result was an extra dip that the Annual Seasonal Pattern did not forecast
    californians_caused_late_oct
  • Amazon to sell cars in 2024 starting with Hyundai
    @hank, next time, give ebay a shot.
    Easier to read. Better user-protection. I don't work for ebay. And I have no idea if I own any of their stock. Just been shopping with them for years trouble-free.
  • Amazon to sell cars in 2024 starting with Hyundai
    You’ve been able to buy cars, many different makes, through Costco for a while. I looked into it the last time I was car shopping, but didn’t bite because I would have had to go through a dealer about 100 miles away. Not worth the trouble for me.
  • From the halls at Schwab
    @Derf. Earliest now would be 8 AM Saturday. CNN and others should carry it. Or find a site on the web. (Postponed from Friday.)
    ”Update for 3 pm ET: SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says the second Starship launch is postponed to no earlier than Saturday, Nov. 18 to replace a grid fin actuator on the launch stack, according to an update Musk posted on X, formerly Twitter. It's been nearly seven months since SpaceX's first Starship megarocket exploded in a brilliant fireball over South Texas in a failed launch test, but the company is ready to try again. If you're hoping to watch SpaceX's second Starship test flight, you'll need to know when to tune in, and for that, we've got you covered.
    SpaceX's second Starship and Super Heavy booster test flight is currently scheduled to launch from the company's Starbase site near Boca Chica, Texas no earlier than Saturday, Nov. 18, at 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT). It will be 7 a.m. local time at liftoff time. The launch was originally set for Nov. 17, but SpaceX delayed it by 24 hours to replace a grid fin actuator on the launch stack.”

    https://www.space.com/spacex-second-starship-launch-what-time
    @Derf - Apologies if I misunderstood your post. I thought you were seeking opinions on the fixed income matter and just tossed out what I’ve been taking in. Not surprised Schwab feels that way. It’s a pretty common theme now and the uptick in rates has been astounding the past 2 years, Thanks for clarifying that.
  • QRA, quarterly refunding announcement
    QRA is an estimate by the Treasury of its upcoming financing needs. There was lot of press on it ahead of the October release because the needs of the US have grown substantially and people feared that a haphazard approach to issuances of T-Bills/Notes/Bonds, TIPS, FRNs, etc may cause chaos in the Treasury market. However, the October QRA release looked like a well thought out gradual plan and there was NO market reaction to it.
    Info https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1864
  • Amazon to sell cars in 2024 starting with Hyundai
    10-15 years ago that would have been heartening to hear. These days I try to stay as far away as I can from Amazon. But I digress. Somebody can start an OT thread if so inclined on the subject.
    Thanks for the story. No problem. Most of us own Amazon through 1 fund or another.
  • Amazon to sell cars in 2024 starting with Hyundai
    And in "exchange", Hyundai will start using Amazon Alexa and Amazon AWS cloud. This looks like an extension of several online car buying services that have tie-ins with the local dealers. Of course, the scale would be huge.
    It won't be direct from auto manufacturers to consumers, the model used by Tesla that required changes in some laws.
    https://apnews.com/article/amazon-aws-hyundai-dealers-b1635fcd8e85eefe983fd565185a1c99