Econ conditions & hard-landing inflation again in detail; was other stuff, insurance bundling .... I increased auto deductible to reduce premium at the last big increase.
I went from $
1,000 to $2500 collision deductible to save when bought my last new car in 20
18. The agent seemed to think that’s high.
@Devo said “Cumulative inflation”. That’s how I look at it too. Similar to how interest compounds year to year. Didn’t Einstein call
compound interest the 8th wonder of the world?
I don’t want to
pee rain on anybody’s parade. Views differ on this.
@msf has documented very well the actual inflation rate based on the CPI index and has explained in past threads how that index is maintained / calculated. I wouldn’t argue with him.
I think we do tend to react more to
increases on prices of items we buy more than we do to
reduced prices on what we buy. From what I hear there’s a glut of chicken & pork right now. Prices are down from a year ago. On the other hand, what in #@*# has happened to the cost of a bag of coffee? As an occasional scotch drinker, I’ve noticed that prices have remained very stable in my state for the past 5+ years. A bottle of JWB can still be had here for under $40, where it’s been for most of the past decade. Maybe drink more scotch and less coffee?
PV - SWR, PWR (& SWRM) @yogibearbull, thanks for your work. Can I ask a couple questions so i can not assume I understand the data?
- the SWR gives the "initial" withdrawal for that period? Does it increase yearly for inflation? And finally, it is the withdrawal that would have taken the original balance to zero in 2023?
- SWRM, same questions but this withdrawal rate would take the balance to the original staring balance in 2023?
Very interesting that these withdrawals are mostly above the 4%. Contrary to opinions now that starting withdrawals should be 3.5% or lower.
As I rely on Portfolio Visualizer (PV) data, I have to follow its assumptions/conventions.
So, for
SWR, the balance would be near zero at 2022 yearend AFTER the withdrawal, but that would feed monthly withdrawals through 2023.
Similar for
SWRM, but that original amount would be inflation-adjusted. So, if the starting amount was $
100,000 on
1/
1/20, the ending amount at 2022 yearend AFTER the withdrawal would be near $
182,883. One can do whatever with that amount.
California Is Going to Drop a Liquidity Bomb on The Stock Market Follow up on this...
The stock market in 2023 has been tracking the Annual Seasonal Pattern (ASP) really closely, that is until a late October 2023 extra dip in stock prices that was not on the ASP's program. Since that dip, stock prices have been rallying hard to get back on track. But why did that dip happen?
Blame Californians. I wrote here back on July 21, 2023 about how the IRS had changed the tax filing and payment deadlines for most of California, because of flooding rains in January on previously burned areas that led to a lot of flooding. This led to disaster declarations, and a ruling by the IRS that taxpayers in 51 of California's 54 counties would get an extension to October 16, 2023 for filing their 2022 taxes. That extension also included a delay in having to pay any amounts owed for 2022, plus all quarterly estimated payments in 2023.
Because of this extension, smart Californians held onto their money and their tax returns until just before the deadline, presumably earning at least money market interest rates on it, but denying those tax dollars to Uncle Sam. California has 15% of the US population, but it also has more than its share of millionaires who have the wherewithal (and the accountants) to do this sort of tax planning.
Why this relates to the stock market is that we have learned from the Fed's QE and QT episodes that having money in the banks is helpful for boosting stock prices. But when a bunch of Californians all wrote their tax payment checks to the IRS in October, that created a sudden drain in the liquidity pool. The result was an extra dip that the Annual Seasonal Pattern did not forecast
californians_caused_late_oct
Amazon to sell cars in 2024 starting with Hyundai @hank, next time,
give ebay a shot.
Easier to read. Better user-protection. I don't work for ebay. And I have no idea if I own any of their stock. Just been shopping with them for years trouble-free.
Amazon to sell cars in 2024 starting with Hyundai You’ve been able to buy cars, many different makes, through Costco for a while. I looked into it the last time I was car shopping, but didn’t bite because I would have had to go through a dealer about 100 miles away. Not worth the trouble for me.
From the halls at Schwab @Derf. Earliest now would be 8 AM Saturday. CNN and others should carry it. Or find a site on the web. (Postponed from Friday.)
”Update for 3 pm ET: SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says the second Starship launch is postponed to no earlier than Saturday, Nov. 18 to replace a grid fin actuator on the launch stack, according to an update Musk posted on X, formerly Twitter. It's been nearly seven months since SpaceX's first Starship megarocket exploded in a brilliant fireball over South Texas in a failed launch test, but the company is ready to try again. If you're hoping to watch SpaceX's second Starship test flight, you'll need to know when to tune in, and for that, we've got you covered.
SpaceX's second Starship and Super Heavy booster test flight is currently scheduled to launch from the company's Starbase site near Boca Chica, Texas no earlier than Saturday, Nov. 18, at 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT). It will be 7 a.m. local time at liftoff time. The launch was originally set for Nov. 17, but SpaceX delayed it by 24 hours to replace a grid fin actuator on the launch stack.”https://www.space.com/spacex-second-starship-launch-what-time@Derf - Apologies if I misunderstood your post. I thought you were seeking opinions on the fixed income matter and just tossed out what I’ve been taking in. Not surprised Schwab feels that way. It’s a pretty common theme now and the uptick in rates has been astounding the past 2 years, Thanks for clarifying that.
QRA, quarterly refunding announcement QRA is an estimate by the Treasury of its upcoming financing needs. There was lot of press on it ahead of the October release because the needs of the US have grown substantially and people feared that a haphazard approach to issuances of T-Bills/Notes/Bonds, TIPS, FRNs, etc may cause chaos in the Treasury market. However, the October QRA release looked like a well thought out gradual plan and there was NO market reaction to it.
Info
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1864
Amazon to sell cars in 2024 starting with Hyundai 10-15 years ago that would have been heartening to hear. These days I try to stay as far away as I can from Amazon. But I digress. Somebody can start an OT thread if so inclined on the subject.
Thanks for the story. No problem. Most of us own Amazon through 1 fund or another.