$21.65, down another 2.5% at the moment...

Rforno, I believe the software companies that will win the AI race are not household names yet. As viewed from a % gain perspective over the next 15 years.

Agreed. But I'll bet most of 'em will get snapped up by the tech companies that *are* household names ... I always keep my ears pinned for interesting AI opportunities, but don't plan on doing a deep-dive to try and find them.

"I didn’t sense as much angst among the public back then over rising prices as today. ... I think it came on gradually over many years and people got used to it. They say if you put a frog in a pot of cold water and heat it up to a boil slowly the frog will die of the heat rather than jump out."
Inflation is expressed in annual change of price. If inflation goes up from 17% in one year to18% inflation the next year, people will know they are paying 18% more in price than what they paid the previous year. Not sure how people can get used to it.
It is possible your memory is kind to previous generations or the current populations are more whiny - you have to figure that out for yourself.

Watch a movie like Network. It's clunky to watch these days, but yeah, people were "mad as hell" about a lot of things, including inflation.
Growing up through that era is the main reason I'm not convinced we're out of the woods yet.

"It wasn't until fairly recently that I became aware that I had helped build an enormous coal-fired generating complex. Who knew?"

@Old_Joe, that was the Navajo Generating Station, and it was demolished in 2020, so it's no longer messing with regional air quality and the climate. Video of the three smokestacks coming down here:

Vox article.

Two are still in operation.
I wonder if @OldJoe's called bonds were for the Kaiparowitz project that was cancelled.

Rforno, I believe the software companies that will win the AI race are not household names yet. As viewed from a % gain perspective over the next 15 years.

FWIW, Fidelity shows DJT down a nickel ($22.19) at 9:29, pre-market, just before market open.

- For income, stability, safety the short to intermediate part of the curve (1-5 years) is easier to ride. Much less volatile. Not a lot of difference now in rates.
-There may be reasons to go further out if you believe rates will be lower than. Plain vanilla bonds might work better however, than a fund.
- I sometimes use longer term bond funds as a volatility hedge - but only the highest quality ones. Depends on a lot of factors like how volatile your portfolio is, what current interest rates are, how much growth you are willing to exchange for the reduction in volatility.
- I am surprised by the extent WEA has served to dampen equity volatility on down days. Might just be freakish exception. Have only owned it a couple months.
- I have my eyes on JMBS - mortgage backed bonds. High quality. Actively managed. Reasonable fees. It does tend to rally on big equity down days. But the flip side that it can fall quite a bit on solid equity days - much more than a short term bond fund typically does. Expected growth is low unless we enter another 2008 during which only the highest credit quality bonds held up.

Oh Yeah. Cruising was big along Woodward. I recall hearing of Kensington Lake, but was never there. I put a 14 footer in a couple times on Union Lake.

Yes Woodward was for racing for some but just cruising between royal oak and north to Ted’s and back. I was at OU and graduated in 71. My go to lake was Kent or was it Kensington? You could rent a row boat. My first command at sea.

There is a growing amount of target vol products on Wall Street They hedge dynamically. They sold a lot when the volatility blew out. Now they might be buying in again. Btw i don’t believe any report which claims to explain why the market does what it does. You should throw my explanation as exhibit 1 into the toilet.

@soupkitchen and others. You might check out the VOX podcast of May 13 titled “The world after Ozempic.” I became interested after a young family member got a bootleg version from an online shop. He wasn’t willing to change his diet or do any exercise. The podcast clearly makes the link between the crummy food industry and the growing success of these drugs.

”Negatives: below 4360 the fund is not protected as it is short the 4360 puts. You would be long 100% Large cap equities if the market was to head down 50%. (however unlikely a scenario it is in such a short time frame, it is a tail risk) …
Thanks @Devo
I sometimes compare investment risk to the ice that covers local lakes in winter - some a mile or more across. Generally speaking, a half-inch of “good” ice will support a 150+ lb human (quality can vary). And were I to traverse the lake 100 times on a half-inch of ice, chances are I’d make it across safely every time. (Who? Me worry?) However, if something unexpected occurs (maybe the ice has been weakened by numerous freeze - thaw cycles) and I fall through into 200 feet of cold water, I might decide crossing on a half-inch of ice, however small the risk, just isn’t a risk I care to take.

+1.

@Crash
For some reason M* portfolio manager does not list even a $1 as the asset price for most Schwab MMF. ( Some of Fido's work fine) I have to do a manual transposition to another symbol or just put in "cash"

update:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141819/000089418924004910/crossingbridgesupplementna.htm

Seems like a good time to build a replicating portfolio for LCORX. Devo describes the process at this dinky linky.
Portfolio Visualizer gives us ten free years of data, and over that period of time LCORX shows a beta of .49. So we're going to test LCORX against a portfolio that is 51% cash and 49% SPY--I think that's the right breakdown.
And here are the results: YADL (yet another dinky linky.)
To get the betas to match over time I had to adjust the breakdown to 50/50/ And here is the result for that.

It is interesting he makes such a big deal out of GLP-1 but apparently has only a small % in Lilly and no NOVO. While detailed portfolio stats are not available except for 12/31 the most recent Quarterly fact sheet shows a persistent 17% in healthcare. In December it was similar but only LT 2% Lilly
Over weight technology, it will be interesting to see how he is going to be les risky than the market. The portfolio ( other than the utilities) seems similar to a lot of "High Quality" growth funds
It fell just as much as SP500 early this month

@Observant, I am glad you read the 2 Options articles I wrote. In addition, I am curious if you took @wabac lead and replicated the portfolios. You might want to do that for not just JHQAX but also JHQDX and JHQTX which are the 2 of the 3 funds of the same ilk run by JPAM.
Here's some numbers to consider. Assume all of the below to be Approximately true:
As of July 31, 2024, portfolio on their website,
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-hedged-equity-fund-a-46637k315#/portfolio
JHQAX held about $19.7 Billion in Large Cap stocks.
They use some active management to decide on which of the stocks to hold and what to avoid. I dont know what active management they do and if it is any good for stocks.
On that date, the SPX was at 5522.
JHQAX was long $20Bn of the SPX 5170 Put, short $20Bn of the SPX 4360 Put and Short $20 Bn of the SPX 5750 Calls. This structure is called a Put spread collar.
This structure expires on Sep 30th 2024.
Somewhere around the expiry, (I know there are fixed rules but I am going with the big picture), this collar is retired and new 3 month collar is initiated.
Thus every 3 months, $20bn * 3, or $60Bn of options are traded, or about $240bn a year for a portfolio of about $20bn in stocks. That, as you might suspect, has transaction costs in terms of bid-offer paid to market makers of options, clearing fees paid to exchanges, etc.
Now, if you look at the Beta of JHQAX to SPY, its around 44%
And if you create the replication basket of 44% spy and 56% tbills, you will notice the portfolio is basically a replica of JHQAX (give or take).
So, my question back, is why pay the 85 bp in fees per year, and then have the fund go through hundreds of billions of dollars of options transactions, when all can be accomplished with a low weight SPX portfolio.
Positives of JHQAX: it IS long the 5170 put and were the market to drop 20%, you would feel good about holding the fund,
Negatives: below 4360 the fund is not protected as it is short the 4360 puts. You would be long 100% Large cap equities if the market was to head down 50%. (however unlikely a scenario it is in such a short time frame, it is a tail risk). Also above 5750 on the SPX, you would lose all exposure to equities.
At the end of the day, remember these JPM funds have a cool 80-90BN$ in AUM. That should tell you that large portions of the market believe these products make sense. (even if I suggest otherwise).
I hope the above is enough for now. No perfect answers. I always find it is better to play and invest a small amount. Live with it and breathe it. If you dont like what you own you will have better reasons to avoid it in the future.

A recent article in The NY Times about an Iowa pig farmer converting his farm to mushroom production states that there are 4000 factory farms in Iowa. An Iowa farmer interviewed on CNN last night said it’s good for the earth to raise beef cattle. I suspect there’s a connection between the American diet and our obesity problem. I am not neutral on the issue: I think bacon is a carcinogen and avoid animal products, processed foods, and the like.

Indeed. Having eaten beef in Europe, South America, and Asia, it tastes totally different than American beef which often has been fed all sorts of crap and given all sorts of drugs to help provide 'greater yield' compared to those other regions ... such Frankenfoods definitely play a role in the obesity problems, even if they're not necessarily processed. The same with wheat, which is engineered and grown more for 'yield' and 'cost savings' than nutritional value -- the wheat of today, especially in the USA is NOT the wheat from 200 or 1000 years ago.

@WABAC: because of DNC coming up, CNN had a documentary on with lots of scenes of the Chicago 1968 convention. Most striking thing to me and my wife was how skinny, almost scrawny, the young kids looked. The same slice of the population these days is either muscular or beefy to obese. Kids in elementary school in my day (the fifties) were not fat; this is not the case today. What has happened to cause this?
A recent article in The NY Times about an Iowa pig farmer converting his farm to mushroom production states that there are 4000 factory farms in Iowa. An Iowa farmer interviewed on CNN last night said it’s good for the earth to raise beef cattle. I suspect there’s a connection between the American diet and our obesity problem. I am not neutral on the issue: I think bacon is a carcinogen and avoid animal products, processed foods, and the like.