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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Money market funds at Merrill Lynch
    In a few states (NY, Conn, Calif), if at least 50% of the MMF's assets are not invested in state-exempt Treasuries each quarter, then none of the divs are state exempt. For taxpayers in those states, it's doubly important how much of a Treasury fund is actually invested in Treasuries.
    Government Money-Market Funds Are Hot. There’s a State-Tax Catch, WSJ, Sept 8, 2023.
    (not paywalled)
  • IRS and Identity Theft
    Level5 has posted an interesting question over in the OT section: IRS and Identity Theft
    I'm mentioning that here because it deserves to be viewed by those MFO posters who are most able to possibly provide information in the matter.
  • GQEPX question
    They cost $145 to $199 a year
    I assume you do not have to also have a M* premium membership but I am just guessing
    I have subscribed to most of them of andon over the years but never found them particularly useful
    They did have model portfolios that were reasonable but I don't remember being super excited about their results
  • Trump Media
    It will be fascinating to watch this unfold. Meme stocks have proven resilient for periods of time, and then it often falls apart.
    Purchases of DJT are really "donations" in my eyes. If you buy now and hold long-term, you don't expect to get your money back. There is no plan for generating revenues.
    I was tempted to buy some puts on it but the premiums are insane* even waaaaay OTM. I kind of still am, but leaning towards 'no' -- not even on a lark with some 'fun money.'
    More important, I view Tweety Amin similar to Elon Musk -- both will say/do anything to goose their stock prices and public images (which often are intertwined) and both have friends overseas with very deep pockets who wouldn't mind supporting the share price even if it means they only do it for a likely tax writeoff. I daresay much of the retail holders are in it just to 'show their support' for the guy because they like the spectacle and can feel part of things.
    * current price 66.50, the $20 strikes in JAN25 are 9.50 ... heck the 2.50 strikes that month are $1.14.
  • Money market funds at Merrill Lynch
    Several firms, including Fido, publish the required 7-day SEC yield and an optional daily-compounded yield. So, for FIGXX, there are 5.21% and 5.34%, respectively.
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/view-all/316175108
    New money market reforms will eliminate the current distinction between the government and retail-prime m-mkt funds with $1 NAV. Institutional-prime with floating NAVs are another matter.
    Be careful with Treasury m-mkt funds - Treasury-only m-mkt hold Treasuries directly, but Treasury-obligations m-mkt hold lots of Treasury Repos.
  • Money market funds at Merrill Lynch
    @MikeW, fwiw, my 401k moved from TRP to Merrill last year. VUSXX, Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund is available to me. A quick look says it has a 7 day yield of 5.29% right now. Merrill's 401k is pretty limited in options (VUSXX is my only mm choice). I'm sure if your wife's account is an IRA, she has more options.
  • Trump Media
    This was a SPAC merger. Former DWAC acquired Trump Media and post-merger, changed the name to Trump Media and ticker to DJT (holdover from now defunct Trump Casinos). No new money was raised. Trump himself owns 58% of the merged entity but has 6-mo lockup. Remaining 42% can sell and take profits.
    What would be a bull market without speculative plays? Meme stocks, SPAC M&As, IPOs, ODTE options, cryptos, gold?
  • Trump Media
    Fascinating story in the New York Times today on the debut of Trump's "Truth Social" stock, trading under DJT. Per the Times, DJT quickly achieved a market cap of $8 billion on total sales of $3 million. Since it operates at a $49 million loss, there are no earnings with which to calculate a p/e ratio. In terms of a price/sales ratio, the stock trades a 2,300 times sales. Robinhood, the biggest of the meme stocks by market cap, trades a nine times sales. At this point, Mr. Trump's stake in the company has more than doubled his net worth.
    Axios declares the Trump Media is "officially a meme stock," which by definition says that the stock price is divorced from any traditional measure of value. It's purely a sentiment play which, they warn, is a dangerous game for "investors" to play. Robinhood's market cap peaked at $59 billion, today it's $17 billion. Upstart peaked at $32 billion and now sits at $2.3 billion. Investors in AMC Entertainment didn't fare as well: the market cap peaked at $32 billion and now sits at $1.1 billion. That would be ... hmm, a 96.5% decline from its peak.
    Axios warns, "If we learned one thing in January 2021, it's dangerous to bet against a meme stock that's going up." Perhaps because it's held by believers rather than investors, Bloomberg reports that its the most expensive stock to try to short with borrowing costs over 200 times the average.
    I wonder if state agencies in Texas are allowed to own it? And, more seriously, whether it's purely a one-off in the stock market or evidence of the underlying fragility of it?
  • Mutual Fund Managers who Left and came Back
    Hi yugo,
    I invest where markets tell me.
    1995-2000 US LC 100% indexes
    2000-2010 Value, SC, international mainly in 3 funds FAIRX,OAKBX, SGIIX
    Since 2010 mainly US LC+ PIMIX until 2018. Then mainly bond funds.
    In 2009 PAUIX(Arnott) + Cinsmond looked great, 6 months after the bottom they lagged badly, I sold both and never bought again.
    The idea is not to fight markets but to join them. In my world managers must be at the top 30% in the last 3-6 (maybe 9 months). If they don't I sell, I don't care why they lag. So, this easy system guarantee that my funds are at the top. I also look at risk-adjusted performance.
  • Mutual Fund Managers who Left and came Back
    Hi, yugo.
    In general, I invest with people who've earned my trust. That generally has two components: (1) this isn't their first rodeo and (2) I've talked with them and came away impressed. As you'll note from my annual portfolio review, my typical holding period is decades.
    I've written often about how I define "winning" when it comes to investing. First, winning is not "beating" anyone or anything else. You made more than me? Excellent!! The next round of drinks is on you. The market made more than me? That's nice. Second, winning for me is simple: "if the sum of your resources exceeds the sum of your needs, you've won." In that world, winning is driven by steadily accumulating resources (invest regularly and prudently, avoid losing money) and minimizing needs (my home is modest, my clothes last a long time, eating out is usually a celebration rather than a routine, in 45 years of driving I've owned one new car). Those two habits frees up a lot of brainspace for things that bring me joy.
    To your "who" question: Mr. Romick, Mr. Foster, Mr. Sherman, Messrs Cinnamond and Wiggins, plus some collection of low-profile professionals at T. Rowe Price and Leuthold.
    In general, Artisan is entirely a collection of stars who grew dissatisfied with their old haunts and were offered support and independence as Artisan Partners. Their misses as a firm are relatively few.
    David
  • "Market bulls won't get a 'wall of cash'"
    Don't know if the bull market needs the extra cash:
    "Since 1950, there have been 30 five-month streaks in the S&P 500, including the most recent one, along with another streak that ended last July. In all but two of the prior 28 cases, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months later, with an average gain of 12.5% and a 93% win rate. This compares to a 9.0% average one-year return with a 74% win rate.
    The bullish advantage decreases over shorter time frames, but critically, it doesn't disappear."
    As regards PVCMX, it's interesting how they try to time the market..... and how they have done more with less (invested). That ~80% cash position is hurting them YTD. I will be adding a small position at some point. But for right now, the market just wants to climb.
  • WSJ's repeat warning: it's a market on Zoloft
    Reddit doubles since debut, arguably driven by the options traders: This from Quartz, 3/26/2024
    Reddit’s share price surged even higher Tuesday morning trading after a big rally the day before. The stock rose to a new high of $74.80 after market open — more than double its initial public offering (IPO) price of $34.
    The reason? Analysts say the launch of options trading is giving bulls a chance to get extra bullish about where Reddit’s stock price will go — and that’s boosting its share price in real time. About 90,000 options changed hands on Monday, according to Reuters. (Laura Bratton, "Reddit stock has more than doubled from its IPO price after options trading started"
    Quartz is a really solid news and analysis operation. Quartz launched as an offshoot for The Atlantic magazine in 2012, targeting mostly upscale consumers worldwide. It has, of necessity, reinvented itself several times. The staff describe themselves as "nerdy and creative." That works. It's a fascinating tale of journalism in a digital "I ain't payin' for nuthin'" age, with Quartz partnering with Facebook and making money, drifting away as Facebook's model changed, getting bought by a publicly traded Japanese firm, buying itself back, then getting bought by G/O Media. G/O as in "Gawker and the Onion."
  • Mutual Fund Managers who Left and came Back
    I don't think that Eric Cinnamond is great, far from it. He looks good when markets collapsed and then he missed a lot of the upside. M* says that for one year PVCMX made under 8% while SPY made over 33% = 4 times more.
    Please don't come back with.... it's not fair to compare to the SP500.. over diversification+ using special funds is a choice.
    You want to use mangers that do well on both, see PRWCX over decades.
    https://schrts.co/IZkdiRPw
    PRWCX is a great fund which I also own and David Giroux is a great manager who's done a remarkable job while laboring under the weight of now $90B+ AUM. (Though it might be argued that others have done better in both return and risk categories: e.g. PKSFX - which I have somehow badly missed on - over the same period you have cited; or the much-discussed MRFOX - albeit over a shorter period.)
    Now about Eric Cinnamond. IMO, you are short-changing him, though it could also be a matter of taste / risk tolerance. I won't bring up SP500 one way or another to articulate reasons for my appreciation of Cinnamond's management skills precisely because in the investment style he follows (and I favor): absolute return investing - comparison to indexes is simply not relevant or of much interest.
    This is not to say that Cinnamond does not produce great returns in the long run. One has to look at managers' entire track record across various markets to appreciate their performance/skills. Unfortunately, I could not find information for the now liquidated ARIVX. So, for the sake of operating in the framework you have referenced - relative return investing - let me bring up this: if you look at his record at the still (barely) alive ICMAX, you will find that it returned ~ 100% over Cinnamond's tenure there (say, 2006 - 2011) while SP500 barely broke even.
    We are simply in a different market right now: one less suited to Cinnamond's style and, frankly, my taste. But this too shall pass...
  • GQEPX question
    [snip]
    @yogibearbull, I'm not seeing the turnover history at that link. I see a condensed M* summary of all their share classes.
    [snip]
    @WABAC,
    According to the M* GQEPX One Page Report, here are the fund's annual turnover rates:
    2019 - 155%
    2020 - 163%
    2021 - 143%
    2022 - 125%
    2023 - 211%
  • Money market funds at Merrill Lynch
    To my knowledge, through their history since 1970s, only 2 money market funds ever 'broke the buck'. So, statistically, any MM fund is as good as the other - apart from the yield (as well as management co and asset size, if one does not fully trusts statistics).
    Personally, I always pick the highest yielding one (often quoted as "7-day yield"), unless other considerations - like min investment amount, sweep, trading allowance, etc. - are at issue.
    Based on this Merrill link that would be PVOXX @ 5.37% for taxable as of yesterday. Of course, you may need to factor in the expense ratios but most top mm funds end up within a few 100'th % points, in my experience.
  • Mutual Fund Managers who Left and came Back
    @David_Snowball
    Thanks David - makes sense.
    My main interest was along the lines of making sure I did not overlook anyone worth noting who'd left for private asset management and/or just decided to take an extended break - say, at least a year or more - but then came back for another spin-at-the-wheel.
    Your example w Michael Fasciano is exactly the point: until your post and the subsequent reading of the MFO article I did not even know about the second round. Is a third coming coming - pardon the pun - else why the 2023 revision?
    My own mutual fund investment decisions are ~ 75% based on the manager (historical performance, strategy, etc.), ~ 15% on asset allocation, and ~ 10% on everything else. So, as much as possible, I try to keep track when talented managers move around and follow (e.g., Robert Gardiner: Wasatch to Grandeur). It is easier to do when, as you put it, "star managers turned entrepreneur" since non-competes are typically up to a year (am I wrong?) but when it takes longer - one just drops off the screen, as was the case with Eric Cinnamond for me... Truly, I should have been reading MFO more assiduously!
    I guess this leads to a natural follow up: You have cited several funds/families as products of first-tier managers leaving behemoths. But these are the funds with, often, a number of active/influential co-managers sharing in strategy development and asset picking. Also, many of these new shops have since diversified and grown into sizable hippopotamuses themselves, with founders spreading their talents thin across multiple offerings, assuming more supervisory/managerial roles, or leaving active association with fund management at their new ventures altogether (e.g., same Robert Gardiner).
    So, if there aren't many examples of the Eric Cinnamond (and, perhaps, Michael Fasciano) variety: can you share who are, say, the 5 best managers still most active within those - or other - funds / fund families. I.e., what is your evaluation of the best active managers rather than of specific funds per se?
  • Mutual Fund Managers who Left and came Back
    I don't think that Eric Cinnamond is great, far from it. He looks good when markets collapsed and then he missed a lot of the upside. M* says that for one year PVCMX made under 8% while SPY made over 33% = 4 times more.
    Please don't come back with.... it's not fair to compare to the SP500.. over diversification+ using special funds is a choice.
    You want to use mangers that do well on both, see PRWCX over decades.
    https://schrts.co/IZkdiRPw
  • Schwab move...Let's retire this thread. Lots of interactions. Food for thought. THNX.
    The $50.00 transfer/extortion fee will be covered by the value of some fractional shares.

    You probably know this already, but for anyone else who is not aware: Schwab does reimburse transfer fees. So, this is just a nuisance - no loss.

    No, @yugo. I did NOT know that. Good news. How does it appear, then? What should I look for?
    It's a little more work but just a bit: you will have to provide Schwab w a statement from your TRP account that shows the amount charged for transferring out and Schwab will credit you this amount. There also used to be a form but I'd recently called them and was told that all you have to do now is upload/fax/mail the statement or give it to your local Schwab office and they will take it from there.
    (If you are willing to wait, right now I am transferring to Schwab my account w BRUFX which has also promised to charge me a (modest) $15 fee. The funds are supposed to take a couple of weeks to arrive as they are held directly with the mutual fund, but I will be happy to update on how exactly the reimbursement process went.)
  • Bond funds to invest in now?
    MBSF is a new fund launched on 2/27/24; the ER is 49 bps. Its still missing basic data on yield, etc. M* shows portfolio as lower quality (unclear what ratings are used for GSEs or securitized holdings), but it invests in floating rate RMBS from GSEs (Fannie, Freddie). It would be interesting to compare it with Treasury FRN USFR, TFLO, both with ER of 15 bps only. One would have to see if the yield advantage of RMBS floaters over Treasury FRNs is all eaten up by extra 34 bps ER.
    https://www.regancapital.com/etf-mbsf/
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/mbsf/portfolio
  • WSJ's repeat warning: it's a market on Zoloft
    @WABAC, Thanks. Yes, that is a good commentary.
    I can not believe it is the $67B (small relative to the size of the market) in covered call ETF strategies that could be the catalyst for any catastrophe (as the headline reads) but the general (robust / excessive?) option activity in the market place and the corresponding institutional counter parties' activities. If the market goes down, DIVO will go down as well (as should be expected) with or without its covered call activity. (Some strategies probably write calls on SPY (naked calls) rather than on individual holdings.) There are a lot of nuances and without each strategy being dissected it is very difficult to know which ones are taking excessive (or untested) risks or if the gun powder is $67B or $67K size. Hopefully, fund managers are providing good commentary of benefits and risks of their funds and owners of funds are reading those commentaries regularly.
    Interestingly, JEPI and JEPQ have $50B AUM between them. May be owners of those can share their thoughts.
    Re covered call ETFs, OP says, '[A]ssets in such funds has topped $67 billion, up from $7 billion at the end of 2020.] I must be missing something as JEPI and JEPQ are new and JEPI assets in 2020 were not much.