AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/24/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (43.2%, above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (25.1%, below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (31.7%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +11.5% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (126+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (41+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil down, gold down, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 62.40% (positive). Democratic ticket changed. FOMC Statement & presser on Wednesday. Treasury spreads 2Y/10Y negative, 2Y/30Y positive. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1575/thread

Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site through May, which includes month to date performance through Friday, 19 June.
Beginning with this update, all flow data now rolls-up to the oldest share class level. Flows of other share classes remain as reported by Refinitiv.
This update was adopted after me getting alarmed at the billions of dollars of outflows from DODGX, who has rewarded investors handsomely these past three years. But alas, the outflows were just inflows to newly established DOXGX share class.

I have home/auto/umbrella through State Farm. I've had a couple major (~$100,000) home claims and a few minor claims over the years. Perhaps it is my local people, but I would say they have done more than right by me. No jumps in rates due to claims, either. Not interested in pursuing lower cost.

Small note - The Mag 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla) dropped -4.8% today and are down -10.4% from their July 10 high. That's “correction” territory, though from grand heights tis still just a small blip.

@FD1000 And when you can't get the scumbags to either answer the phone OR return messages??????? That is MY Schwab-World experience. I could go downtown to the office, and deal with a RECEPTIONIST. And where would THAT get me?

MRFOX is classified as Equity by Empower.
I don't have any fixed allocation targets that I am trying to hit but fwiw, I do use PV to assess every few months if the projected returns of my portfolio will be better than a 60/40 like say VWELX or VBINX. Because imo if one can't beat these then what is the point of active portfolio management.
Very broadly I have three themes in my portfolio -- cash flow, diversification(beyond stocks and bonds) and risk adjusted returns. Accordingly I pay close attention to and pick/cut positions on the basis of Yield %, Sortino Ratio and Correlation to SP500.
Overall I'm not looking to blow the lights out but a (reasonably) steady return. I'll take the "steady" annual 8-10% over a range of -20% to 20%. So when I am using PV to fine tune the portfolio I'm also looking to manage to the Max DD.

@staycalm,
Thanks.
Your allocation info is what I was looking for to see how large an Alt allocation you have. I thought it might be easy for you to just copy and paste from your portfolio tracker and so I made a broader request.
The purpose of the price movement request is to see how each of your Alts did today. I have a sense for how general equity and fixed income have performed today.
I do not think I ever got to more than 15% in Alts. Of the many I tried, I had success with only one (QMNIX) because it trended for some time. I thought it was too much work and gave up on them for years. Instead I was happy just to dial up or down equity allocation and to go out on the credit spectrum - seemed less work for me. I got into QLEIX earlier this year and very recently into BLNDX - both meaningless size positions for me - I think my mental block is I need to be able to explain the price movement of what I own (the "too much work" comes from this mental friction).
Do you include tactical allocation funds like MRFOX in equity or Alts?

Hey Balu,
% allocation per position is a level of detail I'm not comfortable sharing. In broad strokes, here are some allocation metrics.
Alts: 46% Includes Real Estate, Long Short, Market Neutral, Private Debt
Equity: 33% Includes US, International, Private Equity and SMA
Bonds: 21% Includes MMF and short term Treasuries
As for up/down today here's a few of each but what is the purpose of this question? Is it because today was a huge down day? Below numbers come from my Empower dashboard, I haven't cross checked against brokerage account for accuracy
Notable Ups Today
- T: 5.22%
- BiVIX: 1.91%
- QMNIX: 0.10%
Notable Downs Today
- SPD: 2.16%
- KRE: 1.83%
- GENIX: 1.66%
Overall across entire portfolio down 0.11% today but this number is somewhat meaningless because not all positions in my portfolio are marked daily.

Here's my portfolio, all commentary welcome! Some of the positions are due to 401k limitations.
QLEIX, CEDIX, QMNIX, NICHX, CELFX, CCLFX, QRPIX, IMPCX, GENIX, MRFOX, XPEBX, CPIEX, DODGX, DFALX, CPEFX, FPADX, TRAIX, CORFX, CBARX, FTIHX, JAAA, BIVIX, SPD, KRE, SIL, T, INDA.
**With the usual disclaimer: Buyer beware**

Do you mind listing what %age of your portfolio is each fund? If you can easily list, also provide what %age up or down each fund price is today.

@BaluBalu,
I could see over the next several years stepping into VELIX to be 10%-15% of the portfolio...I'm likely a couple years away from stepping away from the corporate work environment...who knows, still enjoying most days what I do...and am therefore in that danger zone, within 5 years of retirement (whatever that means, right?) and post 5 years retirement...I'm very very high in cash equiv's, like over 90%...works for me, wouldn't recommend it for most but I should be transparent and state my wife and I were in the highest tax bracket for quite a few years...so what we left on the table with the uptick in markets we overcame slippage of inflation with salary/bonus/stock options etc...fully acknowledge that I've been actually taking on risk by being too conservative but on days like this, I'm going for a bike ride this evening and not overly concerned about what the markets are doing...back in my younger days, in the 20's and 30's, was uber aggressive in the stock market...not anymore...
Kind Regards,
BF

OK.
Take 2.
1 if you're a purest.
2 if you're a traditionalist.
3 if you're an experimentalist.
5 if you're a conformist.
More than 5 funds, you should have your keys taken away.
c

Excellent. I'm going to frame this. :-)

My portfolio is overweight with energy sector investments. FANG has been trading places with AVGO and RPHIX this year as my largest single portfolio holding. I have been wondering if Trumps pledge to increase domestic energy production could bear much fruit given the already high level of production under the Biden administration. This article fleshes out some of the ways he could try to accomplish his goals and suggests he may be able to succeed. That possibility leads me to wonder more about whether his agenda would be likely to benefit or hurt energy sector investments. Any thoughts about possible impacts will be appreciated. (Please remember to keep any comments focused on the investment implications of Trump's energy sector agenda.)
Trump’s Energy Agenda

:). +1.

It sounds like you're in good shape - drawing modest spending cash from T-IRAs annually and owning no or little tax on those draws. From that perspective, conversions may indeed be just an added complication.
I've spoken with enough people who prefer simplicity, so take the following nudge toward conversions as just a suggestion, perhaps not worth the effort as you say.
I expect that the RMDs will have to be bigger than the amount I'm currently taking each year in January, but I'm confident we'll still owe no 1040 tax.
Roth conversions now can reduce the size of those RMDs and keep more of the money tax-sheltered for longer. This may not matter to you since you don't expect to owe taxes either way.
But if you're thinking of leaving a legacy, it could matter to your heirs. They'll owe taxes on an inherited T-IRA as they withdraw money. They won't owe taxes on inherited taxable accounts (they get a step-up in basis), but all future earnings will be taxable to them. They won't owe taxes on inherited Roths and the money can continue growing tax free for up to ten years. Even longer for a spouse who inherits.
Each person's situation is different. The amount of money you might convert could be small enough that it's just not worth the hassle. In my case, some of my beneficiaries are nonresident aliens living where there is no tax treaty. They will be subject to 30% withholding. So I'm doing conversions over many years to reduce my T-IRAs.
Finally, the good news - you get another year (until age 73) before RMDs kick in.

@msf. @catch22
Hello, guys. For several years after retirement, wifey's salary served to fund my T-IRA. We just chose to throw the $$$ into my IRA instead of hers. Mine is much more substantial. Then some life changes made funding ANY T-IRA impractical. Her IRA lives, and so does my own. Under current circumstances, converting to a Roth just seems like a needless complication. We grow the taxable side now, and I'm in the habit of taking X amount from my T-IRA in January each year. We owe no 1040 tax. When I get to age 72 in a couple of years, I'll continue with the same habit, taking out my RMD in January and I'll just redeploy the money, investing it on the taxable side. I expect that the RMDs will have to be bigger than the amount I'm currently taking each year in January, but I'm confident we'll still owe no 1040 tax.
When all our stuff (except her small T-IRA) was with TRP, we were limited to just their own funds. After switching everything to Schwab, the field is wide open. But I'm rather pleased, still, with my TRP selections, plus the Weitz fund that her T-IRA is in. So, no changes are expected or needed, until junk bonds turn South. Then that money will need a new home. I'm always looking for new prospects, and have some in mind, as needed. Our tax bracket will not be going UP, even after RMDs kick-in at 72. (Two more years.)
Your responses are much appreciated. The people on this MFO discussion board actually care. I do thank you.

The key word in Random Walk was COULD but why would anyone do it?
The SP500 or VTI beat most manage stock funds and definitely individuals over long term.
Malakiel, Bogle, and Buffett all agree.
Add to it the fact that these fund managers are trained professionals who work 40 hours weekly.
So why buy individual stocks?
I can see an exception such as, take 10% of your portfolio and buy 5 stocks and let them run for decades.
I have a good friend who invest $3000 in several stocks in early 90s, all trailed the SP500, except MSFT who made him 1.5 million.
--------
Many still miss a point. VOO,VTI can also be one of the 3-5 funds you select.
I never believed in holding your funds for decades because leading categories change, market change, and good managers can start lagging, the reasons don't matter, they just lag.
Finally, the execution matters, when to switch or not.

BF,
I am reading your objective with VELIX is to beat SPY over a 5 yr period, starting now, which is a narrow, targeted focus than the broader theme you explained 2 days ago which prompted my suggestion to look at the broader fixed income space.
What %age of your portfolio are you targeting VELIX and equities in general?
BTW, I personally know people of 8 and 9 figure portfolios with 95% equity exposure. I also know people with 8 and 9 figure portfolios that are 100% in fixed income. Each group is motivated by maximizing their long-term wealth for the unit of Risk they take. The definition of Risk likely varies but they all play primarily in equity or below A rated credit.

Here's my portfolio, all commentary welcome! Some of the positions are due to 401k limitations.
QLEIX, CEDIX, QMNIX, NICHX, CELFX, CCLFX, QRPIX, IMPCX, GENIX, MRFOX, XPEBX, CPIEX, DODGX, DFALX, CPEFX, FPADX, TRAIX, CORFX, CBARX, FTIHX, JAAA, BIVIX, SPD, KRE, SIL, T, INDA.
**With the usual disclaimer: Buyer beware**

Consider yourself fortunate that you haven't been doing this for fifty years (or have you?)
My father purchased shares of "One William Street" back when mutual funds issued certificates (image below not his certificate)

This was originally a fund run by Lehman. Subsequent owners due to mergers, sales of investment units, etc. were Lehman Brothers Kuhn Loeb Inc, Shearson Lehman Brothers, Shearson Lehman Hutton,

Salomon Brothers, Salamon Smith Barney (under Travelers, then Citicorp), Smith Barney (under Citicorp),

Legg Mason, and now Franklin Templeton.
Fund family/fund name changes didn't always coincide with parent changes (as with Mainstay changing to NY Life).
Fund names evolved from One William Street to Salomon Brothers Investors Fund, Salomon Brothers Investors Value Fund, Legg Mason Partners Investors Value Fund, Legg Mason Clearbridge Investors Value Fund, Legg Mason Clearbridge Large Cap Value Fund, Clearbridge Large Cap Value Fund. (The three Legg Mason names were in a span of just four years: 2009-2013.)
Alas, same as it ever was. Yes, most of it is nonsense - the name changes, the mergers, the ads.
I wrote a more detailed description of this fund's evolution a decade ago:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/21862/#Comment_21862