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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • GM's driverless car company Cruise is under investigation by SEC and other agencies
    Following are edited excerpts from a current NPR report:
    The GM-owned driverless car company Cruise is under investigation by several federal agencies for an October crash that seriously injured a pedestrian.
    The company on Thursday said it is being investigated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the U.S. Department of Justice, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, in addition to California agencies. Cruise said it is "fully cooperating" with the regulatory and enforcement agencies that have opened the investigations.
    In the Oct. 2 crash, a vehicle struck a pedestrian and sent her flying into the path of the self-driving Cruise car. The Cruise vehicle then dragged the pedestrian for another 20 feet, causing serious injuries.
    Cruise, which owns a fleet of robotaxis in San Francisco, then failed to adequately inform regulators of the self-driving vehicle's full role in the incident. Since then, Cruise's driverless ride-hailing services have been paused in all markets. The CEO resigned, along with other senior executives.
    Cruise also hired outside law firm Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan to investigate the incident. In a scathing report, released Thursday, the law firm said Cruise's interactions with regulators revealed "a fundamental misapprehension" of the company's obligations to the public.
    The company says it accepts the law firm's conclusions and is focused on "earning back public trust."
    "Poor leadership" cited as one reason for the Cruise's failing
    In its initial explanations of the crash to the public and to regulators, Cruise did not acknowledge that the robotaxi dragged the pedestrian. Instead, it focused on the fact that the collision was originally caused by another vehicle.
    The law firm did not conclude that Cruise intentionally misled regulators. The report states that Cruise did attempt to play a full video for regulators that showed the pedestrian being dragged, but "internet connectivity issues" repeatedly caused the video to freeze. And instead of pointing out the video's significance, "Cruise employees remained silent, failing to ensure that the regulators understood what they likely could not see."
    Letting a video "speak for itself" when the video couldn't even play didn't quite rise to the level of concealing the truth, the law firm concluded. But the report said it revealed a lot about Cruise's corporate culture.
    "The reasons for Cruise's failings in this instance are numerous: poor leadership, mistakes in judgment, lack of coordination, an 'us versus them' mentality with regulators, and a fundamental misapprehension of Cruise's obligations of accountability and transparency to the government and the public," the law firm wrote.
    Personal Comment: Despite obvious similarities in failure to accept responsibility for basic safety requirements, the Cruise company is not believed to have any connection with the Boeing Corporation. However, it would seem that there is a high degree of potential interchangeability in upper management between the two companies.
    Note: Text emphasis in the NPR report was added.
  • Relying On Stock Investments For Income After Retiring
    Taking dividends is a lot easier than figuring out total return. The money just shows up if you aren't reinvesting. No doubt there's lots of academic arguments over this.
    Not really.
    Example: you can use a simple index = SP500 = FXAIX at Fidelity to sell shares every month for a specific amount ($2-4K) on a certain day and let it run for years, problem solved and you know exactly how much you get every month.
    The only thing that matters is total returns which include the distributions.
  • T. Rowe Price - Arrrgh!
    @hank
    You noted: Seriously … I’m convinced that moving from TRP to a Fido brokerage account several years ago took 2-3 years off my life. Horrendous experience.
    Horrendous regarding which organization? Thank you.
    -
    Thanks for the ”catch” Catch. Some may remember the episode from about 3 years ago. In fact, you were one of the members who answered technical questions and provided encouragement.
    - In the first half of 2021 I initiated a transfer of assets from TRP to Fidelity (cash method).
    - A paper check from TRP arrived at Fido after about 2-3 weeks.
    - Fido opened an account and deposited credited the proceeds from this check.
    - I than purchased several different funds.
    - 1-2 days later TRP cancelled the check (refused to pay).
    - I learned of this only after Fido had sold the funds I’d purchased (at a loss to me).
    - Fido notified me I was in violation of SEC rules (“free-riding”) and their own policies as well.
    - I struggled for answers with a number TRP’s (mostly inept) phone reps over several days.
    - 15-20 minute phone “holds” in the middle of discussions were common over this period.
    - TRP admitted error, apologized and said they would rectify it.
    - After 7-10 days another check from TRP arrived at Fidelity.
    - All 4 of my accounts (Roth, Trad, 2 TOD) were placed on 90 day probation.
    - Being on probation prevents using / reinvesting / proceeds from sales of investments for a number of days (until after Fido receives the funds). Further “infractions” could lead to being bared from trading.
    Arrrgh!
  • Writing checks can be risky. Here's how to protect yourself.
    I wouldn't sleep on debit card risks which I think are just as significant, or even more so, than check writing risks.
    https://www.techchecks.net/resources/debit-card-or-check-which-one-is-safer
    It all comes down to a person's attention to their respective risks and steps taken to mitigate them. I for one have never known anyone who had their bank account drained due to a check writing issue, but do know someone who had theirs drained via debit card fraud, having not recognized or notified their bank of the loss for over 60 days.
    https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/credit-cards/credit-card-vs-debit-card-safer-online-purchases
    Excerpt BOLD added:
    Debit card fraud
    According to the EFTA, your potential liability for fraudulent debit card transactions is virtually unlimited. You have up to 60 days to report a lost or stolen card under the EFTA. After that, you simply lose whatever money was taken, even funds siphoned from linked accounts. The exact liability limits under the EFTA are:
    Lost or stolen card reported before unauthorized transactions: zero liability.
    Lost or stolen card reported within two days: $50 liability limit.
    Lost or stolen card reported within 60 days: $500 liability limit.
    After 60 days: no protection.
    It's important to note that if your card is not physically lost or stolen, you have 60 days to report fraudulent transactions with zero liability. If only your card number is stolen, the 60 days start from the date of the statement on which a fraudulent transaction appears.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/24/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/24/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (39.3%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (26.1%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (34.8%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +13.2% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed/FOMC, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (100+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (15+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar down. Other Sentiments have been slipping too since mid-December. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1328/thread
  • T. Rowe Price - Arrrgh!
    I should have listened - any interaction with TRP is fraught with peril, even moving assets into TRP.
    I was just rearranging accounts, and it seemed to make sense to consolidate my TRP fund shares there to keep free M* access. At least until M* retail customer features finish self-destructing. I would be transferring shares of a TRP fund I didn't already hold at TRP. Also a small amount of cash.
    1. First attempt: move fund shares in kind into the mutual fund (not brokerage) side.
    a. TRP won't let you create a new fund position via a transfer. So I did a small exchange within TRP to create a position into which to transfer the shares.
    b. I filled out the fund transfer form with full fund account number including the hyphen and digit at the end. TRP accepted this form as correct.
    c. TRP filled in its part of the transfer form but excluded the hyphen and digit from the account number in its section.
    d. Transfer was rejected (after many days) because account numbers didn't match.
    TRP subsequently told me that the hyphen and digit are not part of the account numbers. It was my fault for including them.
    2. Second attempt: open TRP brokerage account and do an ACAT transfer.
    a. This took a couple of weeks but shares were now on brokerage side.
    b. TRP told me that the TRP fund position would be moved automatically over to fund side where I could exchange funds.
    c. Transfer was not automatic, I could not move shares online, I could not exchange shares.
    d. Phone call, manual intervention, shares finally moved to fund side.
    3. Third attempt: use small amount of cash in outside brokerage to buy more shares of existing TRP fund position at TRP.
    a. TRP told me to use mutual fund transfer form and write "CASH" for the fund being transferred.
    b. TRP forwarded form to outside brokerage indicating that check was to be mailed to TRP.
    c. Three weeks after submitting form to TRP, and two weeks after outside brokerage had mailed a check, nothing. TRP said I should wait longer - after all, there were weekends and holidays during those two weeks. Give it another three business days.
    d. Check was still "in the mail". TRP said there was nothing it could do. I would have to contract the brokerage to have it reissue the check that TRP, not I, requested from them. I had TRP do a three way call.
    e. Current ETA is another three weeks - a couple of days to stop payment, get the money back in the account, reissue check. After that, another 10-12 business days according to TRP. The outside brokerage said they could not send the money by ACH or wire or ACAT because all they could do was resend the check as originally requested.
    6-7 weeks to transfer cash! TRP even suggested that the mail between Florida and Baltimore was slow. I guess there's a lot of traffic on I-95.
    Ya, when I hear that junk, I just wish I owned weaponized drones to send their way. That is SO LAME.
  • T. Rowe Price - Arrrgh!
    I'm trying to get past the part where you filled out a paper form in section one.
    LOL
    And @msf, traffic here between DC and Baltimore on I-95 really does suck during the workweek.....
  • T. Rowe Price - Arrrgh!
    The account numbers look like: 0123456789-4. Except that the "-4" in this example is not considered part of the account number.
    Here's the mutual fund transfer in kind form I used (see section 1 asking for account numbers). T Rowe Price adds another page when it requests the transfer from an outside brokerage. On that form, T. Rowe Price fills in 0123456789 only.
    https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/iinvestor/Forms/TransferInKindFormJuly2006.pdf
  • T. Rowe Price - Arrrgh!
    I should have listened - any interaction with TRP is fraught with peril, even moving assets into TRP.
    I was just rearranging accounts, and it seemed to make sense to consolidate my TRP fund shares there to keep free M* access. At least until M* retail customer features finish self-destructing. I would be transferring shares of a TRP fund I didn't already hold at TRP. Also a small amount of cash.
    1. First attempt: move fund shares in kind into the mutual fund (not brokerage) side.
    a. TRP won't let you create a new fund position via a transfer. So I did a small exchange within TRP to create a position into which to transfer the shares.
    b. I filled out the fund transfer form with full fund account number including the hyphen and digit at the end. TRP accepted this form as correct.
    c. TRP filled in its part of the transfer form but excluded the hyphen and digit from the account number in its section.
    d. Transfer was rejected (after many days) because account numbers didn't match.
    TRP subsequently told me that the hyphen and digit are not part of the account numbers. It was my fault for including them.
    2. Second attempt: open TRP brokerage account and do an ACAT transfer.
    a. This took a couple of weeks but shares were now on brokerage side.
    b. TRP told me that the TRP fund position would be moved automatically over to fund side where I could exchange funds.
    c. Transfer was not automatic, I could not move shares online, I could not exchange shares.
    d. Phone call, manual intervention, shares finally moved to fund side.
    3. Third attempt: use small amount of cash in outside brokerage to buy more shares of existing TRP fund position at TRP.
    a. TRP told me to use mutual fund transfer form and write "CASH" for the fund being transferred.
    b. TRP forwarded form to outside brokerage indicating that check was to be mailed to TRP.
    c. Three weeks after submitting form to TRP, and two weeks after outside brokerage had mailed a check, nothing. TRP said I should wait longer - after all, there were weekends and holidays during those two weeks. Give it another three business days.
    d. Check was still "in the mail". TRP said there was nothing it could do. I would have to contract the brokerage to have it reissue the check that TRP, not I, requested from them. I had TRP do a three way call.
    e. Current ETA is another three weeks - a couple of days to stop payment, get the money back in the account, reissue check. After that, another 10-12 business days according to TRP. The outside brokerage said they could not send the money by ACH or wire or ACAT because all they could do was resend the check as originally requested.
    6-7 weeks to transfer cash! TRP even suggested that the mail between Florida and Baltimore was slow. I guess there's a lot of traffic on I-95.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... NASA may send Starliner home without its crew
    Yes, I knew of this incident, but it occurred on a 757, which has been in service for a very long time with no major issues that I'm aware of. That suggests that it's highly likely to be a Delta maintenance issue, and I don't want to be piling on Boeing ... they have more than enough of their own problems right now.
  • CrossingBridge 4Q23 Investor Letter
    The commentary is great and essential, I try to keep it "simpler".
    2022 was one of the worst for bonds. MM+RPHIX were great. Then the Fed first blink was 11/2022. From that point, you should start looking to make more money.
    You have 3 great choices (funds)...from lowest risk/SD to highest...RPHIX,CBLDX,RSIIX. Their distributions match the above RPHIX has the lowest and RSIIX = highest.
    I'm not in the prediction business but there is a good chance that in 2024 RPHIX will make 5+%...CBLDX 8+%...RSIIX 9+% and that is just the distributions. CBLDX would be an easy choice to make.
    I invest only in bond OEFs and why I never invested directly in indexes, treasuries, or no flexible funds, think VG.
    This is exactly what I'm looking for, which is great performance with much lower risk/SD.
    Disclaimer: I don't own any of the funds above...at this moment.
  • Down Market Strategies
    @hank
    Eric Cinammond ( PVCMX) calls it "the art of looking stupid" . This is a good read.
    ( BTW PVCMX was ahead of SP500 last three years until October with lot smoother ride!
    https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/post/the-art-of-looking-stupid
    "In our opinion, current equity valuations do not justify aggressive positioning. However, as we witnessed in Q4 2023, valuations alone have not deterred investors from chasing asset prices higher during the current market cycle. With small caps soaring into the end of the year, we're sure our patient positioning didn’t look very bright. But this isn’t new for us. Patient positioning almost always looks unintelligent during periods of sharply rising asset prices. And while we can’t predict the future, we expect we’ll continue to experience periods of looking stupid, and maybe even smart, but rarely will our paths look the same."
    I would think the worst thing to do is to be forced to go 109% in equities because your staff ( or investors) don't like bonds.
    Individual investors do not suffer from GMO's career risk where they can be fired for underperformance, unless your partner pays much more attention to the bottom line than mine does.
    We just have to answer to ourselves and be able to sleep at night
  • EM local currency bond fund recommendation
    Up until 2017, TEI would have been well ahead of all the top OEFs. However it has faltered since then. Approx 15% leveraged; yield > 11%.
    https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/TEI
  • Down Market Strategies
    IMO, the only way to avoid a crash is to sell to MM and buy back after that. Yes, it is timing. Most can't do it so just own several funds up to 6-7, using indexes and good managed funds(PRWCX), according to your goals and risk, and hardly trade.
    See (link).
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    @Derf - I ‘ll go with Ernie Harwell who used to say …
    ”It ain’t over til the fat lady sings.”
    I’ll note gold appears to be rising from the dead this morning. It’s been camatose at around $2,000 for week upon week. Miners have fared worse than the metal. So, even a 1.75% spike in GDX (miners index) premarket and a $10 jump price in the metal to above $2030 this morning,is encouraging.
    My portfolio doesn’t have a ton of gold, but there’s enough exposure thru PRPFX and 1 CEF that it often exerts an outsized daily influence.
    Good luck there!
    Edit - I spoke too soon. Gold & miners turned negative shortly after market opened.
  • The bucket strategy is flawed …
    Hank, I'm not a typical trader. My trades are based on my system. In "normal" market I may hold a fund for weeks/months, in risky market a lot shorter. One day can be very meaningful.
    When I discussed trading funds it was all about none Schwab/Fidelity funds.
    Why not ETF? Because most ETFs for bond fund are generic. Can you find an ETF for PIMIX,RCTIX,SEMMX,CBLDX,RSIIX?
    Another crucial difference, in volatile market ETF will lose a lot more money while OEFs don't which is another reason for me to get out before a crash.
    Transfering money from Schwab to someone's bank can be quicker than the usual 2-3 days. You can write a check and deposit it in your bank account via your phone, I have done it many times and the money was available the next morning. Schwab supplies me with free checks.
    From memory, Schwab is a real bank while Fidelity isn't.
    But the biggest advantage I get at Schwab is when they waive the $49.95 fees when I buy Institutional shares.
  • Down Market Strategies
    I have found inverse funds helpful for taxable accounts when selling would trigger large gains, and to damp down volatility when things go really south. Of course when they go wat up ( 2008 and 2020), I can never sell them at the top so it usually is a round trip.
    I am rereading Taleb's Black Swan and "Fooled by Randomness" both highly recommended. A recent book "Chaos Kings" details how Taleb and other guys make money during crashes, usually with deep out of the money puts, I guess. Some of the ideas mentioned in the book pay off huge profits if the drops are severe enough.
    The author of Chaos Kings says "finally there is a similar product for retail investors " and says it is SPD an ETF from Simplicity designed to capture downside convexity.
    When I checked, SPD lost 19% in 2022, presumably because of the decline in the treasury collaterals. They also have another hedged ETF CYA ( what a sense of humor!) that is hard to figure as it lost 50% in a three day period in October ( early in the week).
    I was going to talk to them about this stuff when I get a minute. Simplicity is a pretty sharp group of option guys whose specialty is custom ETFs with complex strategies.
    Another idea I haven't used but maybe someone else has are the new "buffered" ETFs.
    Now interest rates are back up it is simpler and probably more profitable to use short term treasuries
  • CrossingBridge 4Q23 Investor Letter
    @davidsherman, Thanks.
    Everyone, The commentary on fund management starts on page 5 of the pdf.
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    YTD:
    My long-long-term portfolio is -0.14.
    My long-term portfolio is + 1.15 (mostly income-generating stocks)
    403(b) is +1.17 (all in RWMGX, so using that YTD since TIAA's not updated YTD data yet!?)
    Roth IRA balance is +4% in an American Funds G&I portfolio
    Not complaining - I am planning for muted returns this year anyway, but the income on DRIP everywhere is quite nice.
    Still mostly equity-based, btw.