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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BlackRock in 2023
    Morningstar’s specialist discusses the firm’s iShares ETFs, the company’s strengths,
    and what investors need to know about the world’s largest asset manager today.
    Video
  • Vanguard in 2023
    Morningstar’s Vanguard specialist talks about the firm’s funds and ETFs,
    costs, and new initiatives that investors should know about.
    Video
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (04/22/23)
    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including Treasury bill problems,
    the housing shortage, rising recession risks, public pessimism, and more.
    Video
    Blog
  • Buffett on Banks - Investing in Mortgages “Dumb”
    Difference between short and long-term thinking. Banks CEOs like most CEOs of publicly traded companies often only think from quarter to quarter. To accept zero yields in 2020 and 2021 as Buffett did would be unacceptable to such CEOs trying to hit quarterly earnings estimates in 2020 and 2021 and collect their sizable bonuses for hitting those quarterly numbers. Ultimately, such short-term thinking is bad for everyone but the CEOs and the analysts setting the earnings targets. Investors suffer as Buffett rightly pointed out. But society suffers as well. Banks go bust, we bail them out, people lose their jobs, etc.
    Vanguard’s John Bogle called this the “agency society” in which the agents of investors, i.e., executives are the only ones who benefit. This problem could be alleviated if CEO bonuses and other compensation were shifted from short- term ones to long-term ones based on, say, a company’s three-year or five-year profitability and if analysts and Wall Street in general stopped being so short-term oriented. Raising the taxes on short-term capital gains from 20% to 30% or even 40% and lowering the taxes on long-term gains for stocks held 5 years to 15% or even 10% might “inspire” or incentivize Wall Street analysts, traders and money managers to think differently.
    Importantly, most of Buffett’s wealth comes from his long-term ownership of Berkshire stock. His salary is minimal and I don’t think he receives a quarterly bonus.
  • Buffett on Banks - Investing in Mortgages “Dumb”
    ”In a recent CNBC interview, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) CEO Warren Buffett criticized banks for investing in mortgage securities at historically low yields, calling them a ‘very dumb holding for banks.’The problem for mortgage securities holders is that effective maturities lengthen when interest rates rise, the opposite of what the banks want. It leaves banks with relatively low yielding portfolios for potentially long periods. BofA's bond holdings yield about 2.6%, which could weigh on its returns, particularly if it has to pay more for deposits. The portfolio has an estimated average life of eight years. Unlike the banks, Berkshire chose to invest its cash of over $100 billion largely in short-term U.S. Treasury bills. It accepted rates near zero in 2020 and 2021 but is now getting 5% on its holdings. If Bank of America had taken more of a Berkshire-type approach, it now could be earning twice the current rate. Berkshire is Bank of America's largest investor, with a roughly 13% stake—some one billion shares. It's notable that Buffett has decided against putting new money into Bank of America this year even after the stock's weakness.
    Excerpted from Barron’s April 24, 2023 (Print)
    Article: “Bank of America’s $99 Billion Bond Problem” - Andrew Bary
  • New CBOE VIX1D Index
    New CBOE VIX1D Index
    The CBOE will use the current methodology for a new VIX1D index that would capture both 0DTE and 1DTE options. As these are business days, VIX1D could be, say, 2DTE (for weekends) or 3DTE (for long weekends) with calendar days. Other VIX indexes have distortions due to weekends and holidays, and those would be even more noticeable with VIX1D. The CBOE may introduce VIX1D futures later.
    CBOE VIX1D https://www.cboe.com/us/indices/dashboard/VIX1D/
    https://twitter.com/6_Figure_Invest/status/1649850486890332161
    https://twitter.com/pat_hennessy/status/1649158280923742212
  • E.P.A. to Propose First Controls on Greenhouse Gases From Power Plants
    Don't getting too misty-eyed over that time. Congress passed some of the most detailed, constraining legislation (even by Congressional standards), because it didn't trust Nixon to faithfully execute the laws if they gave him any wiggle room. I've studied the key statutes a little can attest to that characterization.
    Two parties working together? Trust Nixon? In 1972 he vetoed the Clean Water Act. Congress overrode the veto.
    An example of what an administration can do given any wiggle room is the Trump administration revocation of Obama's 2015 Clean Water Rule that clarified (and partially restored) the scope of the Clean Water Act.
    But sometimes that wiggle room doesn't really exist - administrations can't just ignore details of the statutes:
    U.S. District Court Judge Rosemary Marquez in Arizona, an Obama appointee... determin[ed] that the Trump administration’s rule last year improperly limited the scope of clean water protections. Marquez said the Environmental Protection Agency had ignored its own findings that small waterways can affect the well-being of the larger waterways they flow into.
    https://apnews.com/article/environment-and-nature-2998bdb80aadc14ef8d4c6d2fe040988
    https://earthjustice.org/brief/2021/clean-water-protections-restored-for-millions-of-streams-and-wetlands
    Current status (for now): https://www.npr.org/2022/12/30/1146355861/epa-water-protections-wetlands-rule
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    21 April, 2023: Mid-show, we are re-introduced to a new batch of "elves," stealing a page from uncle Louis Rukeyser. At the moment, they predict, on average, that the SP500 will end 2023 at 4,025.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-04-22/wall-street-week-full-show-04-21-2023
  • Gold Stolen at Toronto Airport
    @hank - good one!
    @msf - Yup, mass distribution messes with one's perception. STUDY
  • E.P.A. to Propose First Controls on Greenhouse Gases From Power Plants
    Interesting to see how XLU and utility stocks perform on Monday: https://nytimes.com/2023/04/22/climate/epa-power-plants-pollution.html
    If the stocks rise or do nothing, it means Wall Street thinks the regs will never pass. The regs are bad news for the stocks, but good news for the planet. Such regs are long overdue. An excerpt:
    WASHINGTON — President Biden’s administration is poised to announce limits on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants that could compel them to capture the pollution from their smokestacks, technology now used by fewer than 20 of the nation’s 3,400 coal and gas-fired plants, according to three people who were briefed on the rule.
    If implemented, the proposed regulation would be the first time the federal government has restricted carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants, which generate about 25 percent of the planet-warming pollution produced by the United States. It would also apply to future plants.
    Almost all coal and gas-fired power plants would have to cut or capture nearly all of their carbon dioxide emissions by 2040, according to the people familiar with the regulation, who asked not to be identified because the rule has not been made public.
    The proposed rule is sure to face opposition from the fossil fuel industry, power plant operators and their allies in Congress. It is likely to draw an immediate legal challenge from a group of Republican attorneys general that has already sued the Biden administration to stop other climate policies. A future administration could also weaken the regulation.
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    @lewisBraham
    You are correct, but when only 50% of eligible voters actually vote, a minority can control a lot of stuff.
  • Gold Stolen at Toronto Airport
    Be aware of ounces (common measure) and Troy ounces (used for precious metals).
    Other Tidbits:
    ...
    Gold is 19.32 times heavier than water, silver is 10.49 times heavier (specific gravities)
    Good point.
    As to which is heavier, gold or water, I refer you to an old riddle: Which weighs more, a pound of feathers or a pound of lead?
    Density is different from weight, though things are not always as they appear:
    "Which weighs more--a pound of lead or a pound of feathers?" The seemingly naive answer to the familiar riddle is the pound of lead. The correct answer, of course, is that they weigh the same amount. We investigated whether the naive answer to the riddle might have a basis in perception. When blindfolded participants hefted a pound of lead and a pound of feathers each contained in boxes of identical size, shape, and mass, they reported that the box containing the pound of lead felt heavier at a level above chance.
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18265850/
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Bill Wilby is a retired professional money manager with a Ph.D. in International Monetary Economics who will discuss the problems with U.S. Treasuries and why financials are uninvestable.

  • Gold Stolen at Toronto Airport
    Be aware of ounces (common measure) and Troy ounces (used for precious metals).
    Other Tidbits:
    12 Troy Ounces of gold make 1 Troy Pound of gold (unlike the usual 16 Oz of peanuts for 1 Lb of peanuts).
    1 Troy Oz of gold has 31.1034768 grams of gold (1 Oz of sugar has 28.350 gm of sugar)
    1 Tonne = 1,000 KG = 1,000,000 gms = 32,150.7465686 Troy Oz
    1 Tola = 0.375 Troy Oz = 11.6638038 gm (definition varies)
    Gold is 19.32 times heavier than water, silver is 10.49 times heavier (specific gravities)
    1 cubic meter of gold is 19.32 Tonnes
    24 Karat gold is 100% pure; 18 Karat gold is 75% pure (100x18/24 %)
  • Gold Stolen at Toronto Airport
    1) 7400 oz
    2) 462.5 lbs
    3) Less
    4) 210.23 kg
    And the price of gold is approximately $70,399.09 per kg, or 63,999.017 Euros, at today's exchange rate.
    More importantly, and certainly of greater interest: Where was @rono when this went down ???
  • What Beat the S&P 500 Over the Past Three Decades? Doing Nothing
    Comparisons hiding in plain sight. FDGRX 1024% vs QQQ 687% over 6115 trading days. If you want high octane which I do not. Comparing QQQ not SPY. Not a recommendation.
  • What Beat the S&P 500 Over the Past Three Decades? Doing Nothing
    John Rekenthaler wrote a follow-up column for Jeff Ptak's original article.
    Voya Corporate Leaders Trust was mentioned and compared to Ptak's "Do Nothing Portfolio."
    Rekenthaler's conclusions are:
    1) Don’t sweat an index’s details.
    2) Worry not about being fashionable.
    3) A little diversification goes a long way.
    I disagree with his first conclusion although he did state that low costs are a key consideration (I concur) .
    Link
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    @lewisBraham
    I don't have to write my reps, cause I live in Massachusetts. I agree in theory that democratic actions ( letters, calls, marches campaigning) would work if everyone did it, but only 50% max of the public even votes.
    Most of the reps leading the charge for this crap have been gerrymandered into districts they can't loose.
    My sister in Texas is gerrymandered into a very red district. Her Rep Chip Roy is one of the more extreme GOPers. He refuses to respond to her emails, and will not let anyone but registered Republicans into his town meetings. There are guards at the door checking names off the voter lists.
    Her local school board just voted to require the history teachers to only teach to their students that Trump won the 2020 election and it was stolen.
    Unfortunately I think until the real awful consequences of the debt ceiling refusal really hit the fan nothing will change.
  • Quick earnings report for 1Quarter, '23: Bar Harbor Bank BHB
    Link:
    https://beststocks.com/bar-harbor-bankshares-inc-reports-strong-q1-e/
    Declared a dividend, as well.
    From the Call:
    "...Mr. Simard concluded, “Despite the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and potential impacts from a weakened economic condition as elevated inflation levels are tampered, we have positioned the Company for the long-term benefit to our customers and shareholders which has once again enabled us to increase our dividend per share by almost 8%. We are also extremely honored and proud to be recognized by Forbes as one of the “World’s Best Banks” in the first quarter of 2023, based largely on service and trust metrics. Of the 75 U.S.-based banks to make the list, Bar Harbor Bank & Trust is one of only three banks headquartered in Northern New England..."
    DIVIDEND DECLARED
    The Board of Directors of the Company voted to declare a cash dividend of $0.28 per share to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 16, 2023 payable on June 16, 2023. This dividend equates to a 4.23% annualized yield based on the $26.45 closing share price of the Company’s common stock on March 31, 2023, the last trading day of the first quarter 2023.