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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Paychecks, Not Portfolios: Why Income is the Key to Financial Success
    Income investing is a myth that has been promoted for years. In many cases, the writer wants to sell you something. Income investing as someone's main/first criterion has no legs in reality because TR=total return (performance) is the ultimate indicator. TR includes everything and all distributions are part of it. Risk-adjusted performance is the first thing you look for, after that, you can look for high distributions.
    I have been discussing HIGH INCOME since 2010.
    First came ATT,VZ,IBM as a must vs SPY,QQQ. A simple chart can prove how pathetic ATT,VZ,IBM were since 2010.
    Then came MLP which lost more than half.
    Then came fixed income CEFs where they made a total of 6-7% in the last 5 years while SPY made over 70%.
    Lastly, I'm not against high distributions, I'm against using it as someone's main criterion.
    At times like this, the young people say:
    "Sir, this is a Wendys."
    Older folks might remember what Emily Litella used to say.
  • Paychecks, Not Portfolios: Why Income is the Key to Financial Success
    We know that compounding on investments made early in one’s lifetime makes a huge difference in one’s financial success. Even though I was a very low earner when I started my career in 1970, we still were able to buy a house in 1973 based on my income alone. Interest rates were around 4%. I borrowed the 5% down payment from my father. My employer, despite paying me a pittance, paid 10% into my retirement account at TIAA. With one kid, one starter home, one car, and a frugality drummed into us by our Depression-era parents, we eventually realized quite amazing gains on what we honestly did not know would become our sources of “wealth.”
    In today’s economy, as @Anna aptly points out, the young couple setting out on a path similar to ours, face overwhelming obstacles. The price of a starter home, in almost any part of the country, now presents the biggest barrier, to say nothing of the huge down payment. What employer these days would be paying 10% of base salary into retirement? It seems trite to say that our kids won’t do as well as their parents, a complete reversal of what had been accepted wisdom about the American economy. The American Dream, for a great many of our brethren, is nothing more than a chimera. The participants on MFO, IMHO, have a whole lot to be grateful for. I’m not sure that my kids, who are between 25 and 43, will be able to feel secure in their retirements.
  • Moody's downgrades 10 US banks
    My preference is to use a local institution for checking and direct deposit.
    I'm a member of a locally-based credit union with many nearby branches.
    If any issues arise, I can readily speak to someone in person.
    Over the years, I've found that CUs generally offer better terms for loans, credit cards,
    and checking/savings accounts than many brick-and-mortar banks.
    Their customer service is also superior to big banks in my experience.
    My credit union provided a Medallion signature guarantee when I transferred
    a Roth IRA from one institution to another.
    Note: I also have an Ally online savings account.
    Same here. They do banking basics very well and efficiently. They're not out to beat quarterly numbers and 'analyst estimates' or start making tons of money for themselves. I've been a member of my CU since 1995 and for the most part I remain very happy with them.
  • Moody's downgrades 10 US banks
    Ally was in the 3rd category - outlook changed to negative.
    Category 1 - Downgraded now
    Category 2 - Under review, for potential downgrade soon
    Category 3 - Outlook negative, meaning that those may be downgraded at some point in the future (or not).
    Link again, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/moodys-downgrades-banks-list-of-downgraded-banks/
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/9/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/9/23
    Bullish remained the top sentiment (44.7%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (25.5%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (29.8%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +19.2% (above average). Investor concerns: Inflation (still high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (76+ weeks, 2/24/22-now); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds up, oil up sharply, gold down, dollar flat. Moody's downgrades several regional banks due to concerns about real estate/CRE exposures, deposit flights, credit card delinquencies. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    LINK
  • Moody's downgrades 10 US banks
    @Observant1- if I remember correctly Ally was one of the outfits that Moody's growled at. You might want to take a look at that.
    Add: Yes, it was mentioned in Yogi's post, above: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/moodys-downgrades-banks-list-of-downgraded-banks/
  • WSJ: Banks’ Problems Aren’t Over, According to the Bond Market
    "There is something wrong with a bank that relies primarily on brokered deposits."
    Yes, it would certainly seem so. I don't think that we, as purchasers of those brokered CDs, can realistically find enough accurate information to have any idea of the actual stability of any given bank offering brokered deposits.
    That means putting a lot of faith in the FDIC. It's also why I mentioned, in the "CD Rates Going Forward" thread, using multiple CDs in smaller amounts at multiple banks for any step in a CD ladder, rather than having one large CD in any one bank. Spread the risk- it's worth the small amount of extra bookkeeping.
    It's also an argument for using Treasuries when possible.
  • WSJ: Banks’ Problems Aren’t Over, According to the Bond Market
    Following are excerpts, heavily edited for brevity, from a current Wall Street Journal report:
    Moody’s [downgraded] the credit ratings of 10 banks and put others under review, or giving their ratings a negative outlook. Credit ratings are very important for banks, which fund themselves partly with deposits, but also by selling bonds.
    But the ratings moves are a reminder that many of the core issues revealed by the crisis this year—such as the risks posed by higher interest rates—are only beginning to be addressed. And one risk that investors can’t afford to ignore is that longer-term interest rates could keep pushing higher, even as the Federal Reserve looks to be pausing its rate hikes.
    However, Moody’s also wrote that it saw some key issues unaddressed by the Fed’s thousand-plus-page proposal.
    Moody’s analysts acknowledged in their Monday report that the Fed’s tougher capital requirements for banks with over $100 billion in assets should be positive for their credit risk, [but also said] that interest-rate risk is “significantly more complicated” than that. For example, there is the diminished value of loans like fixed-rate mortgages—a huge problem for First Republic, for one. In its analysis, Moody’s applied a 15% haircut to the value of banks’ outstanding residential mortgages.
    The bond market’s focus on worst-case scenarios may explain the gap between the performance of many lenders’ debts versus their shares. In theory, higher capital requirements coming for many banks ought to provide more comfort for bondholders, who focus more on existential risk, than shareholders, who should be worried about the drag on banks’ returns on equity from higher equity levels.
    But this security cushion isn’t what markets appear to be reflecting. Across regional banks with A ratings, though their bonds have rallied in recent weeks, investors are still demanding a lot more return to own them than they were prior to SVB’s collapse. The gap between those banks’ senior bond yields versus Treasurys was still about 50% wider than on March 8 as of Monday.
    It is a relief that banks have found a number of ways to stabilize their earnings and rebuild some capital, but bond market jitters show there is still a lot more work to be done.

    Note: text emphasis in above was added.
  • The case for a soft landing in the economy just got another boost
    Following are excerpts from that article, edited for brevity:
    The "overall message" is that food prices have greatly increased globally due to a number of reasons, and that the US is actually doing better than most:
    image
    Given that huge rise in global prices, how could prices in the United States not have gone up a lot? Indeed, there have been big food price rises around the world, for example, in Europe:
    image
    So food inflation is mainly a global story. But what caused that global food spike? It seems to have been a perfect storm of adverse events (including actual storms).
    Now, the prices U.S. consumers pay for food haven’t closely tracked the global price index, and in general have gone up by less. But that’s not surprising, because the indexes are measuring somewhat different things. The World Bank is estimating the prices of raw foodstuffs, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics is measuring the prices of purchased foods
    The bottom line is that even though many people would like someone to blame for high grocery prices, it’s really hard to find domestic villains. Despite what the American right claims, Joe Biden didn’t do this. Despite what some on the left would like to believe, neither, at least for the most part, did greedy corporations.
    Sometimes, as the bumper stickers don’t quite say, stuff just happens.
  • Paychecks, Not Portfolios: Why Income is the Key to Financial Success
    "@FD1000 - I think you missed the point of the article if you even read it at all."
    @Mark- You be readin' my mind. Stop that. :)
  • Paychecks, Not Portfolios: Why Income is the Key to Financial Success
    @FD1000 - I think you missed the point of the article if you even read it at all. He was saying that if you have limited income (i.e. from your paycheck or earnings) it's difficult to construct or build a portfolio. That is the situation for millions of potential savers. If one is living from paycheck to paycheck just in order to make it through the day/month/year then where do you find money to save? Where does the income come from to stash away for a rainy day, an unexpected medical bill, an appliance or vehicle that needs replacement/repair and so on and so forth. From personal experience it's a struggle to get to that point or stage in one's life.
    The author in this article is most definitely NOT saying to invest for income. He's saying that folks need income to invest.
    @Anna - what you said is quite true. The cost of shelter, living in general and the salaries to afford it all play a critical part. It pains me to see that companies and even states (I'm talking about you Texas) don't even want to give their workers water breaks much less reasonable pay for their labor.
  • T-Bill Coupon-Equivalent Yield
    Thanks for the info. We bought some 12 months T bill this week as other T bills matured. Yields are rising after Fitch’s downgrade of US Treasuries. For taxable account we prefer T bills due to the state tax exemption. Otherwise, brokered CDs are very competitive.
    By the way, Warren Buffet buys $6 billions worth of 3 or 6 months T bill every week. He does not like longer term T bills.
  • Moody's downgrades 10 US banks
    Moody's downgraded 10 banks (M&T, etc), placed 6 under review (Northern Trust, BoNY/Mellon, etc), and changed the outlook to negative for 11 banks (Capital One is in this category; others are PNC, Ally, etc).
    Moody's concerns are real estate/CRE exposures, deposit flight, debt/card delinquencies. It is more like regional bank industry downgrade. I tried to get details from Moody's site but it requires login.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/moodys-downgrades-banks-list-of-downgraded-banks/
  • Paychecks, Not Portfolios: Why Income is the Key to Financial Success
    Income investing is a myth that has been promoted for years. In many cases, the writer wants to sell you something. Income investing as someone's main/first criterion has no legs in reality because TR=total return (performance) is the ultimate indicator. TR includes everything and all distributions are part of it. Risk-adjusted performance is the first thing you look for, after that, you can look for high distributions.
    I have been discussing HIGH INCOME since 2010.
    First came ATT,VZ,IBM as a must vs SPY,QQQ. A simple chart can prove how pathetic ATT,VZ,IBM were since 2010.
    Then came MLP which lost more than half.
    Then came fixed income CEFs where they made a total of 6-7% in the last 5 years while SPY made over 70%.
    Lastly, I'm not against high distributions, I'm against using it as someone's main criterion.
  • Country Garden (HK) missed two coupon payments to bondholders: 8/8/23
    China has a lot of problems. Among them:
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/end-made-china-crippling-world-050000386.html
    Direct investment liabilities – a key measure of foreign direct investment (FDI) in China – plummeted 87pc to $4.9bn between April and June. This was the lowest amount in any three-month period since at least 1998, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
    The true investment numbers are in fact likely to be far worse, says Magnus, as official figures include Hong Kong.
  • Country Garden (HK) missed two coupon payments to bondholders: 8/8/23
    This is big.
    I can't even think about investing in mainland China, nor Hong Kong, given the curtailment of civil and human rights being forced upon Hong Kong by Beijing. I just read a news report that a guy is being arrested for just putting a protest song on the internet. I was in HK in 2018. Much worse, even since then.
    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/china-country-garden-missed-bond-two-dollar-coupons-3684971