CD Rates Going Forward Something that does not discussed when considering CDs, is the importance of coupon frequency. In my taxable account I prefer shorter term CDs, withh monthly coupons, to ensure I have greater liquidity options. I use a lot of 6 month, 9 month, and 1 year CDs, which pay monthly coupons/dividends, although I will have a maturity date coupon for smaller CD amounts. I buy CDs in the 5 and 6 figure range, and it is not uncommon for the principal amount to drop thousands of dollars before the CD matures, and I do not want to be faced with potential needs for that principal, with heavy redemption penalties, in my taxable account. I try to maintain 7 or 8 of these shorter term CDs, with their maturity dates being staggered, so I am having CDs maturing quite frequently for liquidation options.
In my IRA accounts, I am fine with longer term CDs, with more semi-annual, intermixed with a few monthly coupon CDs. I do not have as much liquidity concerns, but I do need these CDs maturing every few months, because of a need for annual RMDs.
A few days ago I had a 6 month, 5 figure CD mature in my taxable account, and I chose to put it into my MM account with some big ticket insurance, travel, and holiday expenses occurring--I needed the liquidity. I also had a six figure CD, mature in my IRA account, and I have decided to reinvest that coupon back into a CD of one to two years, probably on a semi-annual or monthly coupon frequency. I am not as concerned about liquidity in my IRA, have no plans to redeem them, and if I should unexpectedly die in the middle of the term, I have survivor benefits for these CDs.
Others may not care as much about coupon frequency, but liquidity and accessibility factors are important to me, along with ensuring I have sufficient number of CDs to stagger their maturity dates for frequency.
SP500 Pullback Numbers Watching, too. One suspects that those who don't watch often may be surprised with your time frame and more so with YTD numbers. The annualized rates of returns at this time should find some sell pressure and perhaps a rotation into other sectors that have not performed as well.
A few I monitor: FTEC (Fidelity tech), QQQ (growth stocks overall), FBCG (Fidelity Blue Chip Growth) and FBALX.
Chart of these four from Oct.
18, 2022. Some of the YTD numbers are better. EX: FBCG was +48 YTD prior to this weeks sell down.
SP500 Pullback Numbers A healthy pullback for SP500 would be -5% to -
10%. Note that from 7/27/23 high, the 50-dMA is -4.35% below and 200-dMA -
11.08% below. So, the pullback may be seen as the tests of 50-dMA, then 200-dMA.
Once the selling starts, where does it stop? Hopefully, -
10% to -
11% (200-dMA).
Don't forget that
10/
13/22 low was a decent amount BELOW the MAs, -
11.42% BELOW 50-dMA, -
16.2
1% BELOW 200-dMA. Keep your fingers crossed that we don't go there as that would be -24.2
1% below 7/27/23 high.
As a practical matter, I may start buying somethings when we are down -5% to -
10% and scale in more as needed.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11025466305
CD Rates Going Forward I'm OK with "only" 5.2% using SCOXX(Treasury) which has a guarantee for no locks. I stopped using SNOXX in 2022, and I'm not coming back anytime soon.
This allows me to trade anytime with ease and flexibility.
Another 0.1-0.2% for 6 months isn't worth for me the hassle. While MM keeps going up, the CDs you bought 3-6 months ago were lower.
@FD1000 what are the differences between SCOXX (Schwab Treasury Obligations Money Fund) and SUTXX (Schwab U.S. Treasury Money Fund), besides the former yielding 5.20% and the latter 5.08%?
CD Rates Going Forward Us cibc CD rates
12 MONTH CD
5.36% APY
24 MONTH CD
4.75% APY
We may charge a 30 day penalty if you withdraw your CD funds before maturity.
We’re backed by CIBC, a
150-year-old Toronto-based global financial institution. Our U.S. headquarters is in Chicago, Illinois.
https://us.cibc.com/en/agility/certificates-of-deposit.html
CD Rates Going Forward Hank. You were actually right. VWINX has a 37.39% allocation to equity. 60.41% to FI. As of June 30. Using Portfolio Visualizer to back test since 1/1 2019 I would be ahead if I would have been 100% in VWINX. Of course my equity allocation was never above 33%. And I had more fun messing around.
CD Rates Going Forward M* shows VWINX at 5.23% annually for 10 years. I hadn’t realized they hew to a 60/40 allocation until I looked tonight. Somehow thought it was more like 30/70. That 10-year average stacks up very well against similar funds. And it managed to shed less than 10% in a tough 2022.
Hardest thing is to try to anticipate how a fund like that might perform in an era of stable or rising interest rates. Funds holding bonds had a nice tail-wind over the past decade as rates fell - actually more like 2 decades.
CD Rates Going Forward +1
Thanks Larry. I haven’t followed VWINX too closely. But seems to be in a bit of a funk compared to earlier years.
MARKETPLACE- Let's do the numbers on CEO pay Nothing new and is especially rampant in the USA. No need to go further than Toyota CEO compared to the USA car company CEOs, while Toyota is a much better company.
But, the solution is simpler in the US. Join the best stock market in the world and enjoy your retirement, you don't need to make a lot of money, just start young and invest 10+% of your salary in the SP500. The US has the lowest fees and the lowest min to start on mutual funds + ETFs.
CD Rates Going Forward "The focus should be on the minimum needed to achieve an income required in retirement."The focus should be on risk-adjusted performance and after that look for the income. Income by itself doesn't guarantee better performance or better risk/SD.
Example:
PIMIX in its glory days 20
10-20
13(
https://schrts.co/TRyXMDdV) was better than SPY, 20
10-20
18 better than many bond funds. In these periods it beat many funds for SD too.
On the other hand, PDI, managed by one of the best teams in the world, paid about
10% annually in the last 5 years but made less than 6% total in 5 years. RCTIX made a total of close to 23% and SPY made 7
1% (
https://schrts.co/vszPEmPD)
CD Rates Going Forward Perhaps because of some of the ideas that this discussion brought up I started organizing our “family office” in case something happens to me sooner than expected. I ran across something from the esteemed Rick Ferri from 2/6/15. The piece was titled “The Center of Gravity for Retirees.”
“Retirees and those almost retired shouldn’t care what their highest level of risk tolerance is because they shouldn’t be investing anywhere near it. There is no economic reason for a person to take more investment risk once they have accumulated enough money for retirement.
The focus should be on the minimum needed to achieve an income required in retirement.
I believe Mr. Ferri says 30/70 is ideal.
CD Rates Going Forward I'm OK with "only" 5.2% using SCOXX(Treasury) which has a guarantee for no locks. I stopped using SNOXX in 2022, and I'm not coming back anytime soon.
This allows me to trade anytime with ease and flexibility.
Another 0.1-0.2% for 6 months isn't worth for me the hassle. While MM keeps going up, the CDs you bought 3-6 months ago were lower.
CD Rates Going Forward We bought a retirement home on Cape Cod in a spur of the moment decision, but we were smart enough to buy one less than 20 years old, built by a guy who over engineered everything ( It was his fifth personal build). BR on first floor, etc. IF we took more time we might have gotten something with a view etc, but we love the quiet neighborhood and new friends.
We passed on new dog, because my daughter moved here too and has two lovely dogs we use to get dog fix every several days. As we helped her buy her house, she frequently acknowledges that she will help us when we can't drive etc. Not including travel expenses, our income needs so far have been met with SS and dividends, even in high tax Massachusetts ( realestate taxes up 30% since 2018)
I became convinced that going into retirement is not the best time to have large equity exposure, given risk of serious bear market, so in 2015 to 2018 I cut stocks back and now am around 30%. The fact that rates shot up has made that decision easier obviously.
I think there is more downside ahead than upside, at least for US market and I don't mind making 5 to 6% rather than 20% if it means avoiding a 40 % loss in capital.
This sorta makes up for the fact that in CT for the last 30 years our house lost us lots of money, my salary was stagnant and we were taxed to the max.
But you can't focus on the past, and we are grateful we are both healthy, our kids are generally happy and educated and employed, although one is 1200 miles away.
The case for a soft landing in the economy just got another boost Following is a transcription of
a current NPR article:
Odds of a soft landing may have just gotten a little better.
The latest employment report from the Labor Department shows job growth held steady last month, boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve may be able to curb inflation without triggering a sharp jump in unemployment. U.S. employers added 187,000 jobs in July. While job growth has moderated, it hasn't come close to stalling, even after the Fed raised interest rates to the highest level in 22 years.
Here are five takeaways from the report.
Keeping up with population growth
Over the last three months, employers have added an average of 217,000 jobs per month. That's down from an average of 312,000 jobs in the first three months of the year, but it's still a healthy pace of growth.
Employers are still adding more than enough jobs each month to keep pace with population growth. Health care, hospitality and construction were among the industries adding jobs in July, while factories and transportation saw modest job cuts.
Historically low unemployment
The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5% in July from 3.6% the month before. The jobless rate has hovered in a narrow range for more than a year, hitting a half-century low of 3.4% in April.
Unemployment among African Americans hit a record low of 4.7% that month before rebounding to 6% in June — raising some concerns. In a relief, the African American jobless rate dipped again in July to 5.8%.
It's best to take those numbers with a grain of salt. The figures can be noisy because of the relatively small sample size.
People are earning more
Here's another bit of positive news: Wages are finally outpacing inflation, boosting workers' buying power. Average wages in July were up 4.4% from a year ago. Wage gains have moderated in the last year, but inflation has cooled as well, so workers' paychecks now stretch farther.
For the twelve months ending in June wages rose 4.4%, while prices climbed just 3%. (The inflation rate for the year ending in July will be released next week.)
Coming off the sidelines
The number of people working, or looking for work, increased by 152,000 last month. Importantly, the share of people in their prime working years (ages 25-54) who are in the labor force is growing. After hitting a two-decade high in June, it fell just slightly last month. That's important, because a growing workforce allows the economy to expand without putting upward pressure on inflation.
And it's good news for women
Before the pandemic, women briefly outnumbered men on U.S. payrolls. The ranks of working women fell sharply in 2020, when schools and restaurants were shuttered and many women were forced to leave work to look after family members or for other reasons. Women's share of jobs has been slowly recovering, however, thanks in part to job growth in health care and education — fields where women outnumber men. (In contrast, the male-dominated manufacturing industry lost 2,000 jobs last month.)
As of July, women held 49.9% of all payroll jobs, up from 49.8% the month before.
CD Rates Going Forward Thanks
@dtconroe,
Hope both of us are alive & well in
15 years.
Worth noting that money market funds back in the 70s and up to the 2007-09 financial crisis were less regulated and, while quite safe, took on more risk than they can today. So those
15-20% rates are a bit over-stated. Apples to oranges.
Doubt I’ll ever succumb to going all to cash. Admittedly, that would have been the smart move
18-20 months ago before the bottom fell out of equities. I enjoy investing and tracking a widely diversified portfolio too much to give it up (
a “fool’s errand” perhaps). But the bumps in the road are getting harder to ride out with age.
CD Rates Going Forward “ … in my lifetime as an investor, I haven’t seen cash yields this high ”
Gosh, I do remember earning 15-20% on money market funds during my early working years. :)
Along with that, the aisles in grocery stores (1970s) were often filled with store employees busy changing the previously marked prices to try and keep up with the ongoing increases. Without bar codes / scanners every bottle of ketchup or loaf of bread carried a marked price. One wonders if all this remarking itself contributed to the inflation rate.
No doubt. Cash at today’s 5% (+ -) looks very compelling, especially to the “over the hill” crowd.
I am also experiencing some degree of nostalgia with some of the recent posts, especially looking at the past
15 years. Around the 2000 to 2007 period, CDs were paying 5+% and I was shopping banks for the best CD rates and terms. Then the financial markets went into a crisis period, with banks closing, major business closings, and the government cutting rates, stimulating the economy, and trying to focus on financial stabilization and economic growth. I have never seen anything like the Covid years, supply chain and manufacturing disruptions, and the renewed fight against inflation in the last few years. 5+% CDs are back, we are fighting inflation again, but now I am in retirement, focused more on preservation of assets than accumulation of assets. I hope I am around for another
15 years so I can participate in investing philosophy, but the odds are that I will not be alive.
Hood River International Opportunity Fund investor share class now available https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1359057/000089418923005408/hoodriverintl497einvestorc.htm497
1 hoodriverintl497einvestorc.htm 497 HOOD RIVER INVESTOR CLASS
Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
Registration Nos. 333-
13369
1; 8
11-2
1897
Hood River International Opportunity Fund (the “Fund”)
Institutional Shares (HRIOX)
Retirement Shares (HRITX)
Investor Shares (HRIIX)
Supplement dated August 4, 2023
to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
each dated October 3
1, 2022, as supplemented
Effective August
11, 2023, the Investor Shares of the Fund will be offered for purchase.
The Prospectus and SAI are hereby amended to add HRIIX as the ticker symbol for the Investor Shares and to remove all statements to the effect that the Investor Shares are not currently offered.
Please retain this supplement with your Prospectus and SAI for future reference.
CD Rates Going Forward “ … in my lifetime as an investor, I haven’t seen cash yields this high ”
Gosh, I do remember earning 15-20% on money market funds during my early working years. :)
Along with that, the aisles in grocery stores (1970s) were often filled with store employees busy changing the previously marked prices to try and keep up with the ongoing increases. Without bar codes / scanners every bottle of ketchup or loaf of bread carried a marked price. One wonders if all this remarking itself contributed to the inflation rate.
No doubt. Cash at today’s 5% (+ -) looks very compelling, especially to the “over the hill” crowd.
CD Rates Going Forward @msf — I agree with you that the next 5-
10 years could be very different. That’s why I’m maintaining significant holdings in bond and stock funds. However, in my lifetime as an investor, I haven’t seen cash yields this high and I doubt that it will continue for long. As soon as the Fed starts cutting rates, yields will drop. If that doesn’t happen for a while, I will keep buying CDs and Treasuries as issues mature.
My wife and I will start taking required minimum distributions before long, and it’s nice to have cash holdings we can rely on if stocks and/or bonds are down. BTW, I checked my watch lists for bond funds and very few have topped 5% over the past
15 years either— and those funds are all high yield funds that tend to drop in stock market crashes.