CrossingBridge Funds 2Q23 Commentary Hi folks. I encourage you reaching out directly of Mr. Snowball can arrange an MFO call. Regardless, let me take this moment to quickly respond.
Bobby: Not sure when RiverPark Short Term High Yield (RPHIX, RPHYX) commentary will some out as it is in the RiverPark hands. That said, the basic commentary will remain. As for your yield question - not 9%! I don't believe yield-to-worst or yield-to-maturity are figures readily provided as they can be very misleading since a significant portion of the the Fund rolls into cash every 30 days so a price can make a big yield impact with so little time remaining on the life of the holdings that a position(s) can impact the yield calculation. Below are some figures for June 30th (unaudited):
38% portfolio rolling off in 30 days or less
62% portfolio rolling off greater than 30 days
57% portfolio rolling off within 90 days
7.32% yield-to-worst on holdings greater than 30 days
Weighted average yield on purchases during the month was 5.88% with 2.2 month maturity.
Feel free to reach out to me directly if you need a further xplanation.
BaluBalu: Patience is a virtue. We don't like chasing the market. CMBS started to run (a little bit) post our 1Q letter. We will add as opportunity arises but price matters. Also, the opportunity should be around for some time. We expect the portfolios will continue to add,
Junkster:
Ed Shagrue is a seasoned veteran and thoughtful in the CMBS space. Although I do not own his Fund, I respect him. You should reach out to him.
I want to reiterate a comment in the 2Q commentary:
With respect to the portfolio, we remain nimble. At the end of 2Q23, we had elevated levels of “dry powder”. If high yield spreads tighten and the market rallies, we may increase our level of dry powder to take advantage of what we believe will be a correction thereafter. We had a healthy position in leveraged loans and are looking to add. At the same time, we are selectively nibbling in the CMBS market. Based on our expectation of increasing volatility, the portfolios are likely to continue experiencing above normal turnover as we adapt to reflect the changing environment.
Perils of Chasing Star Managers + Other Fund Stories from Barron's There are only far and a few star managers, these managers do well in most markets for 1-2 decades and are flexible enough to change. The first that comes to mind is Giroux managing PRWCX.
A reasonable way is to invest in top-performing categories/funds, just as stock traders find top-performing categories and then look for stocks in that category.
From my experience after watching and researching funds for decades, most times, managers that outperformed, it's because their style fit markets in that period...or...they found a niche that worked well.
These types of markets can last for years:
2000-2010: the SP500 lost money; value, SC and international did much better(FAIRX,SGIIX)
2010-2021: US LC growth did better than most (QQQ)
PIMIX took advantage of the broken MBS of 2008 and had several years of better performance than stocks + better performance than many bond funds for more years + better SD = better Sharpe ratio.
Basically, invest in the market you have, not the market you wished you have.
BTW, the above does not mean fast trading and/or trading 100% of your portfolio.
CrossingBridge Funds 2Q23 Commentary Commercial Real Estate bond fund OEF - RCRIX/FX. YTD 6.
10%. Not exactly the Armageddon the pundits have been predicting for CRE. Albeit the fund holds 0% in office buildings.
Edit:
https://www.riverparkfunds.com/assets/pdfs/rpfrcf/commentary/RiverPark_Floating_Rate_CMBS_Fund_2Q23_Investor_Letter.pdfRecent commentary on this fund. I spoke with the manager early in the year. He feels there are tremendous opportunities in CRE. He seemed a bit discouraged that his AUM were so much smaller than pre Covid as he wished to take advantage of such opportunities. I should add that River Park is by far the most stringent when it comes to short term trading of their funds. As I mentioned previously, they will send you a ban notice even before your sell order is processed. Meaning, if you have an early morning order in there to sell, they will ban you before close of day.
CrossingBridge Funds 2Q23 Commentary From the article:
"As discussed in our 1Q23 letter, capital flows favor assets with the highest risk-adjusted returns. Investors that have been large buyers of investment grade CLO debt are now able to earn significantly better yields in newly issued commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)15 debt of comparable quality. In the AAA tranche, CMBS debt offers slightly less spread for much higher credit quality based on loan-to-value (LTV). For tranches below the AAA tranche, CMBS yields are, on average, significantly higher with better LTV"
"At the same time, we are selectively nibbling in the CMBS market. Based on our expectation of increasing volatility, the portfolios are likely to continue experiencing above normal turnover as we adapt to reflect the changing environment"
Music to my years.
Utilities @hank, the higher sum is from January to June, as I said in my post. The more time that goes by, the more the disparity grows.
Start the comparison from 2021 and the disparity is now
164 bucks.
Where you start and stop your year also matters. For example, at M* you can chart the two against each other for the past year,and the difference is 57 bucks. Take a look at the chart in the new link I posted. At the end of December 202
1, the discrepancy from January is 63 bucks.
The difference of .25 is not just a drag on the upside. It also sinks the fund deeper on the downside. As you can see in the link, at the end of January 202
1, GLFOX is
13 bucks behind. And it will never catch up. It will fall inexorably behind.
I don't need to take IRA distributions for six years. If I back test the two funds for six years the CAGR for GLIFX is 8.63 vs, 8.35 for GLFOX. And the difference in dollars is 562 if 20K were the amount invested.
But what if stocks had not just a rough year or two, but a dismal stretch for over a decade The SP500 is the most recognized index that represents stocks and over decades it has done better than most other stocks, including thousands of managed funds and professional managers that worked very hard to beat it.
Diversifying did not help much either, and I'm talking meaningfully about extra performance. There is a good reason why Bogle build the Vanguard Empire, it was based mainly on VOO or VTI for stocks. Buffet tells the same story.
The SP500 lost money in
10 years during 2000-20
10, mainly because of the excessive performance of
1995-2000 when the SP500 made 250% in 5 years which is 28+% average annually (
link).
Can the SP500 go sideways for years? Of course, it can. Are you going to switch to the right categories?