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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Best month for bonds in nearly four decades
    Asset allocation funds are having a great day this month. The bond sleeves are rocking as the FED holds the rate hike unchanged for the rest of the year. 10 year treasury dropped again today! For example, VWINX having more long bonds is doing well. When the FED starts to cut rate, it is expected to do even better. At that time period, the 5% yield of money market, T bill, and CDs will come down as well.
    We stop buying T bills and CDs several months ago and shifted to bond funds as T bill/CD matures. Really don’t want to get caught with reinvestment issue down the road.
  • Best month for bonds in nearly four decades
    I should have said most in the thread. There was a long thread posted a few months back asking if people were going to invest in bonds again. I recall most of the posts said "why would I when I can get a 6mo CD yielding 5%? Many also cited the abysmal recent PAST performance of bond funds as another reason not to invest there again. My own comment was that it was a really good time to invest in credit. Most of the best credit managers like marathon, pimco, oaktree, canyon, KKR, PGIM were shouting from the rooftops how attractive the setup was.
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    the manager has a 15 year track record with another fund. the index did better. the reason I say I would rather own the index is because of the massive overlap in holding this fund has with the index. I am simply betting on lower costs. Also I understand the intense desire to find the manager with the secret sauce. I fell for it with SEQUX. They haven't beat the index in last 5 10 or 15 years.
    It's weird that expressing an opinion on something, I warned you it would ruffle feathers, is now considered a "drive by".
    contrary opinion. if I had to pick this or voo and hold for next ten years I would pick voo. qlty is a high cost index fund. over 15 years the spy beat it.

    QLTY is a month old fund and is an actively managed (not an index) fund. Not sure where you are getting your 15 year numbers and calling QLTY an index fund from.
    GQETX a cousin of QLTY (a US equity fund) and is allocated 20% to International stocks. To give you the benefit of doubt, I compared GQETX with SPY (same as VOO) and its total return is slightly higher than that of SPY (let us call it even) over a past 15 years. However, over the life of GQETX and over the last 10 year period, GQETX handily beat SPY. GQETX is also less volatile.
    As an opinion, one can pick VOO over QLTY for a future investment. Yes, one can have an opinion (contrary or concurring) about the future but it is not possible to have contrary (or alternate) facts about the past.
    What is the purpose of the drive by shooting?
    contrary opinion. if I had to pick this or voo and hold for next ten years I would pick voo. qlty is a high cost index fund. over 15 years the spy beat it.

    QLTY is a month old fund and is an actively managed (not an index) fund. Not sure where you are getting your 15 year numbers and calling QLTY an index fund from.
    GQETX a cousin of QLTY (a US equity fund) and is allocated 20% to International stocks. To give you the benefit of doubt, I compared GQETX with SPY (same as VOO) and its total return is slightly higher than that of SPY (let us call it even) over a past 15 years. However, over the life of GQETX and over the last 10 year period, GQETX handily beat SPY. GQETX is also less volatile.
    As an opinion, one can pick VOO over QLTY for a future investment. Yes, one can have an opinion (contrary or concurring) about the future but it is not possible to have contrary (or alternate) facts about the past.
    What is the purpose of the drive by shooting?
  • Janus Henderson Sustainable & Impact Core Bond ETF will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1500604/000119312523295531/d651596d497.htm
    497 1 d651596d497.htm 497
    Janus Detroit Street Trust
    Janus Henderson Sustainable & Impact Core Bond ETF
    Supplement dated December 14, 2023
    to Currently Effective Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    The Board of Trustees of Janus Detroit Street Trust (the “Trust”) approved a plan to liquidate and terminate Janus Henderson Sustainable & Impact Core Bond (the “Fund”), effective on or about February 21, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). After the close of business on or about February 15, 2024, the Fund will no longer accept creation orders. Trading in the Fund will be halted prior to market open on or about February 16, 2024. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to shareholders on or about February 23, 2024. Termination of the Fund is expected to occur as soon as practicable following the liquidation.
    Prior to and through the close of trading on NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE”) on February 15, 2024, the Fund will undertake the process of winding down and liquidating its portfolio. This process may result in the Fund holding cash and securities that may not be consistent with its investment objectives and strategies. Furthermore, during the time between market open on February 16, 2024 and the Liquidation Date, because the shares will no longer be traded on NYSE, there may not be a trading market for the Fund’s shares.
    Shareholders may sell shares of the Fund on NYSE until the market close on February 15, 2024 and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. Shares held as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed for cash at the then current net asset value. Proceeds of the redemption will be paid through the broker-dealer with whom you hold shares of the Fund. Shareholders will generally recognize a capital gain or loss on the redemptions. The Fund may or may not, depending upon its circumstances, pay one or more dividends or other distributions prior to or along with the redemption payments. Please consult your personal tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    "I have that [XMHQ] in the IRA. It might be a better fit for the taxable. I'll probably put that money into FMIMX."
    Do you mind elaborating why you would prefer FMIMX over XMHQ?
    Other than in 2022, an unusual set of circumstances, XMHQ seems to have done well.
    While I do not generally pay attention to ER, I think you mentioned elsewhere and so I checked. XMHQ ER 0.25% while FMIMX ER is 1%.
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    "Inker's marketing wryly amuses me."
    I agree that GMO is an annoying marketing machine. As I mentioned elsewhere, it was ballsy for them to not seed their first ETF - their overconfidence of their ability to market speaks for itself. It started with $3M AUM and got up to $30M as of yesterday (50% increase probably yesterday). The lumpy inflows could have a negative short term impact for existing shareholders.
    I have always ignored their public pronouncements. I would not have bought QLTY (an active fund) if we did not have GQETX to look at past performance. If the fund stopped performing against another Quality fund (passive or active), then it is reasonable to bail but comparing it to SPY or other active funds on a short to intermediate term basis may just be a point of entertainment. I think it is fair to compare any investment over one's investment horizon. It is also fair to question whether a retail investor (such as us) should really delve into specific factors.
    As I mentioned earlier in this thread, expect Quality to give lower returns when high Beta (or other factors) are in vogue. Also, with only 35 constituents, QLTY returns could be a bit lumpy just as with any focused fund but GQETX returns do not appear to be lumpy - active management?
    I would just sit and watch until the fund gets to a reasonable size AUM.
    I think posters in this thread raised good points, even if a bit salty! I think it is good when others take the time and effort to question what one is doing. Thanks.
  • T. Rowe Price Hedged Equity Fund will be available November 8
    I edited the PHEFX ER info in my post above to decrease from 0.78% to 0.58%.
    Also, today I reduced (on the way to eliminate) TCAF and bought PHEFX. I already have a lot of PRWCX and TCAF is also overweight HC and Utilities. It was difficult to give up an ETF and get into a new mutual fund.
    PHEFX at TRP website does not have portfolio holdings but M* says it has 318 equity holdings (but lists 96 which is similar to JHQAX).
    Info available about PHEFX is very sparse but JHQAX website has excellent amount of information, including how the JPM strategy is implemented. JPM team is seasoned while TRP team (a single manager) is relatively green.
    PHEFX AUM up to $3.1B (JPM Hedge equity strategies have a combined AUM of $25B).
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    Thanks @Mark. But what are those "quantitative and fundamental techniques" that sets QLTY apart from FUQIX or QUAL-- just to mention two large blend funds that have quality in their name.
    As of this morning, I find 54 US equity funds in the MFO premium database with quality in their name, in addition to QLTY. And many of them charge less than QLTY.
    So I am amused by the pitch that GMO alone, has discovered, and can identify, a quality premium.
  • Precious metals are breaking out
    Yuppers. Gold posted a $50+ gain yesterday and is up $62 today at last look. Miners going wild. OPGSX (used to own / still track) was up 5% yesterday. Silver’s been leading as it often does. Gold peaked above $2100 a week or two ago (a record high). Almost back to that level today.
    Not a recommendation. Play at your own risk. :)
  • Best month for bonds in nearly four decades
    Multisector FMSDX may have only 30% nominal-equity now (it varies), but it has increased HY/FR-BL/convertibles/EMs to 25%. So, it still acts as moderate-allocation. Of course, it will lag in any stock rally.
  • ARTFX
    ◾you beneficially own shares in the Funds with combined balances of $250,000;
    This is similar to the way one can access PRWCX - with at least $250,000 invested at T. Rowe Price. At TRP, that could mean all assets owned through their brokerage, or it could mean only TRP accounts (it isn't clear to me).
    The former would be similar to Fidelity ($1M in brokerage assets for Private Client status), while the latter would be similar to the Artisan Funds rule above and to Vanguard's rule ($1M in VG funds for Flagship status).
    Note that with Artisan, being gifted one share to open an account won't work as intended:
    ◾you receive shares of the closed Fund as a gift from an existing shareholder of the Fund (additional investments generally are not permitted unless you are otherwise eligible to open an account under one of the other criteria listed)
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/13/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/13/23
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (51.3%; high) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (19.3%, low); neutral became the middle sentiment (29.4%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +32.0% (very high). Investor concerns: Budget; inflation; economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine (94+ weeks); Israel-Hamas (9+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds up, oil flat, gold down, dollar down. The FED held rates & indicated possible cuts in late-2024. An everything-rally followed. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1285/thread
  • Best month for bonds in nearly four decades
    I'll believe it when I see it.
    FMSDX (heavy bonds, smart-managed, they say) down 4% over 2y and up <3% the last 3mos; BND, STIP, BSV, VGIT: the longer down 8%-10% 2y and the shorter -2% / +2%, or for 3mos all up 1.5%-<4%. Rock on. Maybe I'll buy more?!
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    My reaction also, @WABAC. I see "quality" showing up in the names of numerous equity funds. For example, VettaFi lists 25 ETFs characterized as « quality factor. » (I don't know about bond funds.) Surely the managers of these strategies differ in their approaches to quality in the same way that "growth" or "value" managers differ in how they pursue their goals. M*’s use of the term in assessing a fund’s portfolio lacks the descriptiveness of measures such as size, momentum, yield, or volatility. Quality may be easier to assess after the fact, but its use as a predictor of performance might be unreliable.
  • ARTFX
    @stillers,
    Sorry, I read the OPs question rather than getting in any fund managed by Mr. Krug as to getting in a closed fund managed by Mr. Krug.
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312523227441/d515026d497.htm#xx_1e50d048-f5f7-47a0-b2d4-07301b86b98f_2
    The only way to purchase ARTFX as cited from the most recent prospectus:
    Who is Eligible to Invest in a Closed Fund?
    Artisan High Income Fund, Artisan International Small-Mid Fund and Artisan International Value Fund are closed to most new investors. From time to time, other Funds may also be closed to most new investors. The Funds do not permit investors to pool their investments in order to meet the eligibility requirements, except as otherwise noted below.
    If you have been a shareholder in a Fund continuously since it closed, you may make additional investments in that Fund and reinvest your dividends and capital gain distributions in that Fund, even though the Fund has closed, unless Artisan Partners considers such additional purchases to not be in the best interests of the Fund and its other shareholders. An employee benefit plan that is a Fund shareholder may continue to buy shares in the ordinary course of the plan’s operations, even for new plan participants.
    You may open a new account in a closed Fund only if that account meets the Fund’s other criteria (for example, minimum initial investment) and:
    ◾you beneficially own shares of the closed Fund at the time of your application;
    ◾you beneficially own shares in the Funds with combined balances of $250,000;
    ◾you receive shares of the closed Fund as a gift from an existing shareholder of the Fund (additional investments generally are not permitted unless you are otherwise eligible to open an account under one of the other criteria listed);
    ◾you are transferring or “rolling over” into a Fund IRA account from an employee benefit plan through which you held shares of the Fund (if your plan doesn’t qualify for rollovers you may still open a new account with all or part of the proceeds of a distribution from the plan);
    ◾you are purchasing Fund shares through a sponsored fee-based program and shares of the Fund are made available to that program pursuant to an agreement with the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC and the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified the sponsor of that program in writing that shares may be offered through such program and has not withdrawn that notification;
    ◾you are an employee benefit plan and the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified the plan in writing that the plan may invest in the Fund and has not withdrawn that notification;
    ◾you are an employee benefit plan or other type of corporate, charitable or governmental account sponsored by or affiliated with an organization that also sponsors or is affiliated with (or is related to an organization that sponsors or is affiliated with) another employee benefit plan or corporate, charitable or governmental account that is a shareholder of the Fund at the time of application;
    ◾you are a client, employee or associate of an institutional consultant or financial intermediary and the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified that consultant or financial intermediary in writing that you may invest in the Fund and has not withdrawn that notification;
    ◾you are a client of a financial advisor or a financial planner, or an affiliate of a financial advisor or financial planner, who has at least:
    ○$2,500,000 of client assets invested with the closed Fund at the time of your application; or
    ○$5,000,000 of client assets invested with the Funds or under Artisan Partners’ management at the time of your application and, with respect Artisan International Value Fund only, the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified such financial advisor or financial planner, or affiliate of such financial advisor or financial planner, in writing, that that you may invest in the Fund and has not withdrawn that notification;
    ◾you are an institutional investor that is investing at least $5,000,000 in the Fund and the Fund or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified you in writing that you may invest in the Fund and has not withdrawn that notification (available for investments in Artisan International Small-Mid Fund and Artisan International Value Fund only);
    ◾you are a client of Artisan Partners or are an investor in a product managed by Artisan Partners, or you have an existing business relationship with Artisan Partners, and in the judgment of Artisan Partners, your investment in a closed Fund would not adversely affect Artisan Partners’ ability to manage the Fund effectively; or
    |
    Prospectus—Artisan Partners Funds
    155
    ◾you are a director or officer of the Funds, or a partner or employee of Artisan Partners or its affiliates, or a member of the immediate family of any of those persons...
  • FOMC Statement, 12/13/23
    Ah, thanks guys for the info. I thought maybe there was some shenanigans going on.
    If you have access to streaming futures data, the time 1359-1402 is always fun on Fed day to see markets in action. The wibbles, spikes, drops, and microsecond volatility is *insane* as places jockey to position prior to the announcement and then after once it sinks in. 'Fading the rally' often was a great strategy in years past if I was tempted to play on Fed day instead of sitting and watching -- I'd sell S&P futures at a best-guess point higher and usually could be in/out of a nicely profitable trade in under a minute or two. Even better were the huge pops to the upside which then reversed over the next few hours during the press conference into the close. (of course that was before Big Algo(tm) took over trading desks and killed the fun of intraday futures trading....)
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    contrary opinion. if I had to pick this or voo and hold for next ten years I would pick voo. qlty is a high cost index fund. over 15 years the spy beat it.
    QLTY is a month old fund and is an actively managed (not an index) fund. Not sure where you are getting your 15 year numbers and calling QLTY an index fund from.
    GQETX a cousin of QLTY (a US equity fund) and is allocated 20% to International stocks. To give you the benefit of doubt, I compared GQETX with SPY (same as VOO) and its total return is slightly higher than that of SPY (let us call it even) over a past 15 years. However, over the life of GQETX and over the last 10 year period, GQETX handily beat SPY. GQETX is also less volatile.
    As an opinion, one can pick VOO over QLTY for a future investment. Yes, one can have an opinion (contrary or concurring) about the future but it is not possible to have contrary (or alternate) facts about the past.
    What is the purpose of the drive by shooting?
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    Nice piece today from Ben Inker, co-director of GMO's asset allocation team. Timed to reflect the launch of their US Quality ETF, Inker argues that "quality" is systemically mispriced - that is, underpriced in one market cycle after another - for both equities and high-yield bonds. As a result, "quality" should be considered an investor's one permanent bias in portfolio construction.
    As GMO launches its first ETF, it seemed like a good time to share my thoughts on the market inefficiency that the strategy seeks to exploit ­– the quality anomaly. The basic goals of any active investor are to achieve higher returns and/or lower risk than a passive portfolio. These goals are, or at least should be, in conflict with each other. If financial markets were efficient, it would be impossible to sustainably achieve higher returns without taking on additional risk. And any portfolio that embodied lower risk would pay for it with lower long-term returns. At the highest level, markets basically work this way. Government bonds and cash are lower risk than high yield bonds and equities and have delivered lower returns across almost all markets and most time periods. But within risk assets, things get weird. Within both stocks and high yield bonds, you have historically been able achieve both higher returns and lower risk by owning the highest quality securities in those universes. This quality anomaly has been around for a long time and exists within multiple subsets of the equity universe. And for what it is worth, their opposite numbers have also been mispriced – low-quality stocks and CCC (and below) bonds have underperformed their broad universes despite their obviously greater downside in bad economic times. In an investing world where most trade-offs are difficult, this one is pretty easy. If you were going to have one permanent bias in your equity and high yield bond portfolios, it should be in favor of high quality.
    He looks at the returns and volatility for higher quality vs lower quality in US stocks, high-yield (BB vs CCC) bonds, small cap stocks, global stocks and value stocks.
    Looking over a 20-year period, higher quality stocks in various classes return maybe 400-550 bps more than low quality stocks yet suffer something like 400 bps less in volatility.
    I've included a link, but I suspect you'll hit a wall. Happily, at least in my case, registration was free and quick. The argument is worth considering.
  • FOMC Statement, 12/13/23
    YBB Notes
    Rates were maintained - fed funds 5.25-5.50%, bank reserves rate 5.4%, discount rate 5.5%. Rates are at/near peak. Rate cuts are possible in late-2024 or 2025. LT rate decline is market-driven.
    QT continues at -$60 billion/mo for Treasuries, -$35 billion/mo for MBS; total -$95 billion/mo. Total QT so far -$1.2 trillion. The QT policy is independent of the rate policy. However, the Fed monitoring declining Fed balance sheet and bank reserves.
    Inflation has come down without hurting the jobs market, but it is still high. Fed +2% average inflation target is reiterated. The public may be unhappy because prices remain high, but low inflation won't fix that. May be rising wages can address some of that.
    Monetary policy is restrictive and acts with some lag. The Fed got behind the curve in starting the tightening and doesn't intend to repeat that error.
    Job market remains strong, but wage growth has moderated.
    Economy has slowed down. But it isn't expected to fall into a recession. Soft landing remains possible. Housing is flat due to high mortgage rates.
    New CPI data on Monday and PPI on Tuesday affected some of the SEPs.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1284/thread