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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    Half of the deposits that remained post seizure have already flown the coup:
    $119B in Silicon Valley Bridge Bank deposits on March 10th.
    $56B in deposits transferred (sold) to First CItizens
    -----
    $63B in deposits pulled out of the bridge bank.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silicon-valley-bank-rapid-withdrawals-100029288.html ($119B)
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/first-citizens-said-be-near-deal-silicon-valley-bank-bloomberg-news-2023-03-26/ ($56B)
    There's always a risk of failure. Just as we saw a move to government MMFs after Reserve Fund broke a buck, some large depositors have wised up to the fact that uninsured really means "at risk". Even though the Treasury provided temporary insurance after Reserve Fund failed and even after the FDIC covered all depositors at SVB.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    ssue not easily dismissed by red herring arguments. Of course other instances of injustice have existed throughout history. Doesn’t in any way explain or justify this instance.
    I think you missed my point. Depositors who get "only" $250K of insurance are not being cheated. They are getting their fair share of coverage. It's the fact that someone else is receiving extra that's the red herring. Sure you're envious, sure you think they shouldn't have gotten that extra coverage, but that's got nothing to do with how much coverage you fairly deserve - $250K.
    My insurer decides to cover neighbor’s loss. Says it will recoup its expenses by raising my insurance rates and those of other paying customers.
    You bring up cost, suggesting that this windfall (SVB depositor unlimited coverage) to others is costing you money. As has been recently pointed out, the FDIC bailout will be paid for by other banks, not by taxpayers. So the broad populace isn't bearing the insurance cost.
    What about the costs you bear indirectly as a customer of a bank being assessed for this bailout? In 1993 the FDIC changed the way it charged banks for coverage - the more risky the bank, the more they were charged (risk-based premiums). So some of this is already built into the system. And unlike the auto insurance example that's based by neighborhood, this premium discrimination appears to be done bank by bank.
    From what OJ posted at the top, it looks like the cost of the bailout might also be apportioned among banks according to the risks they pose. IMHO that would be a good idea.
    Finally, in your example, your neighbor was uninsured, rather than underinsured. There's a red herring FDIC does not bail out non-member banks. Those banks don't pose systemic risks because depositors at FDIC member banks will not start pulling money out upon seeing a non-member bank failing.
  • Crisis of HTM - Banks, Brokerages, Insurance, Pension Funds
    it was clear to the "market" (but not to regulators?) that IF the HTM Treasuries were marked-to-market, the equity (the book values) of the failed banks would have been wiped out.
    What does "clear to the 'market'" mean? Are we talking about the magnitude of the risk of being wiped out by a run? Wouldn't the market incorporate clearly perceived risk into an equity's price?
    If stock price is a metric of risk perception, it looks like the risk wasn't clear to the market until after SVB virtually failed. On March 8, SVB announced to the world that during the day it had run out of AFS securities and needed to raise cash immediately.
    The March 8th closing price of SIVB was $267.83, with volume in its typical range of well under 1M shares traded. The price was up 16% YTD. The next day trading volume exceeded 38M shares and the price dropped 60% while the market was open. It dropped further after the market closed before trading was halted.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SIVB/history?p=SIVB
    https://news.yahoo.com/svb-shares-slump-again-clients-105042807.html
    Technically there are only two failed US banks, SVB and Signature. Admittedly, Republic Bank would have failed without extraordinary measures.
    https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/bfb2023.html
    Signature Bank was different from SVB, because its involvement in cryptocurrency did make its risk apparent after SVB's collapse. Barron's wrote:
    Signature also had a cryptocurrency business. While Signature didn't have loans backed by cryptocurrencies or hold cryptocurrencies on its balance sheet, it had a payment platform for processing crypto transactions. But deposits associated with the crypto platform had been dropping, prompting some concern from Wall Street.
    Before SVB's failure, there wasn't too much concern. Signature had 10 Buy ratings out of 17 analysts listed on Bloomberg following earnings reported on Jan. 17. The average analyst price target was about $145 a share.
    As the crisis at SVB mounted, Signature stock fell about 50%. The company reported deposit balances of about $89 billion and loan balances of about $72 billion on March 8.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/signature-bank-shut-down-collapse-a0adf63f
    So far, I haven't found a report that Signature's security portfolio was loaded with Treasuries (not that I've looked that hard). As you noted, all types of long term securities are subject to interest rate risk - not just Treasuries, and not just illiquid securities. It would be interesting to know, strictly as a matter of curiosity, what Signature was holding.
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    House sale and capital improvements to calculate capital gains on sale question.
    So, house purchased for 'x' $ 20 years ago.
    There is a capital gain on the sale of the property, which will be taxable.
    Improvements to the property may be used to change the 'cost basis' for calculating full capital gains tax.
    My question (below) is that it was stated that the owners made numerous improvements to the property over the years; which did provide for a higher sales price.
    One example is, a very nice fence that was placed around the property that cost $5,000 15 years ago, but would cost $15,000 to build today.
    The seller, of course, wants to keep the capital gains tax on the sale as low as possible.
    It is my understanding that they may use the original $5,000 to change the 'cost basis'; whereas it is suggested they may use the $15,000 cost (when the house was sold), if the fence was installed today, to calculate the 'cost basis'.
    In effect, they are suggesting using an 'inflation adjusted' value.
    Is this allowed in the IRS tax code for calculating a property sale 'cost basis' to establish the capital gains amount???
    Thank you for your time in sorting this conflict of thought about this process.
    Catch
  • Crisis of HTM - Banks, Brokerages, Insurance, Pension Funds
    There is lot of negative news on the CRE exposures of smaller banks. The 3 US bank failures so far had high exposures to US Treasuries (HTM*, AFS*) and had industry concentrations in tech (private-equity, venture-capital) and cryptos. No US bank has failed yet for the CRE exposure, but if that happens, that may be the max negativity for CREs. Affected may be quarterly-liquid (TIAA) T-REA and illiquid/nontraded-REITs - BREIT, SREIT (typical limits 2% per month, 5% per quarter), etc.
    Story is similar. The HTM portfolio is NOT marked-to-market. While that is "legal" and "allowed" by the accounting rules, it was clear to the "market" (but not to regulators?) that IF the HTM Treasuries were marked-to-market, the equity (the book values) of the failed banks would have been wiped out. When the bank runs happened, the HTM and AWS distinction basically disappeared. In the CREs, the revaluations are slow (e.g. T-REA), or not even done (some nontraded-REITs).
    Another concern is that the HTM and AWS practices are also found among insurance/annuity companies and pension funds, not just among banks, credit unions, brokerages.
    *HTM - Hold-to-maturity (these are not marked-to-market), AWS - Available-for-sale (these are marked-to-market)
  • TAGG ETF
    Here is the fact sheet that contains additional detail on the sectors and credit breakdown. It is a total return bond fund with US Aggregate bond index as its benchmark.
    https://troweprice.com/literature/public/country/us/language/en/literature-type/quarterly-factsheet/sub-type/etf-single-class?productCode=QBX&currency=USD
    A close competitor is Fidelity’s active managed Total Bond ETF, FBND. ER 0.36%.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    Some uninsured depositors lucked out by getting coverage. We can complain all we want about how they shouldn't have gotten covered, verily how they exacerbated the problem. Still, depositors at other institutions aren't being shortchanged a nickel. They are getting all the coverage they bargained for.
    We've heard this sort of complaint before, e.g. from notch babies. With that cohort, as with depositors insured "only" up to $250K, the fact that someone else received a windfall does not mean that you should also receive more than you're entitled to.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @PressmUP
    The jury is still out. If all of SCHW deposits leave, even to their MMF, the Bank's income will drop 50%. That will obviously crater the stock. They claim they have enough cash, Marked to sale securities and can borrow enough to fund this. If you believe them, maybe they will not go bankrupt.
    I doubt all of the cash in the bank deposit program will leave, as a lot of it ( can't tell how much) is part of their asset management program where they force clients to keep a goodly amount in cash. But some will leave.
    Given all of this you could argue that buying the stock is a bet that all the money that wants to leave has left. Still I wonder where the upside catalyst is.
    I didn't buy much!
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    Following are heavily edited excerpts from a current NPR report.
    Days after one of the largest bank failures in U.S. history, the fallout continues. Some of the country's top banking and financial regulators appeared before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday to testify about what led to the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank. Policymakers will be debating whether new laws, rules or attitudes are needed to keep other banks from going under.

    Five takeaways from Tuesday's hearing:
    • Silicon Valley Bank's management messed up
    • Regulators issued warnings, but the problems were not fixed
    • Modern bank runs can happen really fast
    • Other banks will pay for the failure, but maybe not all banks
    • Bank executives could pay

    • Silicon Valley Bank's management messed up-
    Regulators had some tough words about SVB's management at the hearing. Silicon Valley Bank more than tripled in size in the last three years, but its financial controls didn't keep pace.
    The government bonds it was buying with depositors' money tumbled in value as interest rates rose, but the bank seemed unconcerned by that. "The [bank's] risk model was not at all aligned with reality," said Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chair for supervision. "This is a textbook case of bank mismanagement."
    • Regulators issued warnings, but the problems were not fixed-
    How much blame should be laid at regulators feet? That was a question that cropped up repeatedly during the hearing.
    Barr stressed that federal regulators had repeatedly warned the bank's managers about the risks it was facing, at least as far back as October 2021. The bank was served with formal notices documenting "matters requiring attention" and "matters requiring immediate attention." But the risks remained and the Fed stopped short of ordering changes, which frustrated some of the senators in the Senate Banking Committee from both sides of the aisle.
    The problems developed during a time when the Fed was generally pursuing a light touch in bank regulation. In 2021, for example, the Fed issued a rule — at the urging of bank lobbyists — noting that guidance from bank supervisors does not carry the force of law. That led some senators to call out colleagues who pushed for lighter rules, only to turn around and blame a lack of regulatory muscle for the bank's failure.
    • Modern bank runs can happen really fast-
    In their testimony, regulators also stressed the speed at which the banks collapsed. When big depositors got wind of the problems at Silicon Valley Bank, they raced to pull their money out, withdrawing $42 billion in a single day. The bank scrambled to borrow more money overnight, but it couldn't keep up. By the following morning, depositors had signaled plans to withdraw another $100 billion — more than the bank could get its hands on.
    • Other banks will pay for the failure, but maybe not all banks-
    Also under scrutiny throughout the testimony, was the federal regulators' decision to backstop all deposits at SVB as well as Signature Bank. Silicon Valley bank was taken over by the FDIC on March 10, but fears of a more widespread bank run led regulators to announce days later they would guarantee all the deposits at both SVB and Signature Bank, not just the $250,000 per account that's typically insured.
    By law, that money will come from a special assessment on other banks — and that's left many senators unhappy. The FDIC has some discretion in how those insurance costs are divided up among different categories of banks. A recommended formula will be announced in early May.
    • Bank executives could pay-
    The role of SVB's top executives came under scrutiny as well during the hearing. Lawmakers expressed frustration at reports that executives at Silicon Valley Bank sold stock and received bonuses shortly before the bank's collapse.
    Although the government doesn't have explicit authority to claw back compensation, it does have the power to levy fines, order restitution and prohibit those executives from working at other banks, if wrongdoing is found. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md, said "Almost every American would agree it's simply wrong for the CEO and top executives to profit from their own mismanagement and then leave FDIC holding the bag,"
  • RMDs and Credit Unions
    "...With so little cash it’s not worth my time and effort seeking out the best return..."
    That's where I'm always at, myself, too. So, someone shows me a better CD rate, and I seethe. For a moment. Then I remember it's just not how I operate. @hank
    I suspect there’s some others here who feel that way as well - to some extent. In fairness, the advantage of having a big cash stash (earning a decent return) is that it allows for taking greater risks in the markets with the remainder and to ride out 3, 4 or 5 year bear markets without having to touch that portion. There’s enough very smart people who invest that way for it to have credence. Some of it depends on one’s particular needs and situation.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Hi @davidrmoran Thanks for the link. I was able to 'sneak in' to read the article. I didn't think the monies our households added would place such a big bump into Fido's MMKT funds. :)
    From the article:
    While government money market funds aren’t insured, their holdings are considered super-safe: cash, US Treasuries and related debt, and securities issued or guaranteed by the US government or its agencies.
    Remember: While you can withdraw at any time, money fund yields fluctuate along with Treasury market interest rates. To lock in a yield you’ll need to tie up your money for a stretch.
    --- Not the best of writing in the bold above and misleading. The yields are more the result of FED funds rates, which does affect Treasury interest rates; AND there IS NOT a lock in period. Three of the common MMKT's at FIDO find one FZDXX that has to be bought and sold like a mutual fund; while core MMKT's of SPAXX and FDRXX are commonly linked directly to one's brokerage/MF account. NONE of them need to be held for 'X' period of time to obtain the yield.
    As of today, March 28, the following yields apply:
    --- FZDXX = 4.59%
    --- FDRXX = 4.43%
    --- SPAXX = 4.40%
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    @rforno - "I think."
    I've tried that, not much good ever ensues.
    "I was thinking, which is a thing a man should not do..." Dean Jagger as Major Harvey Stovall in "Twelve O'clock High."
    Go straight to 1:57:20.

  • RMDs and Credit Unions
    As I noted elsewhere my local credit union offered a 5+% rate on a 15-month CD with as little as $1,000 about 3 weeks ago. Took a quick look. Gosh, I hold very little cash in any form and what minimal amount is held needs to be fully liquid. I enjoy investing and spread the risk around across diverse assets which in aggregate, I believe, offer better return potential than cash. Am also inclined to lock-in short term gains (at the cost of potentially greater returns) which lowers overall risk. And it certainly helps to have a pension plus SS. So just not into cash - much as I’d like to support my local credit union.
    With so little cash it’s not worth my time and effort seeking out the best return. Fido’s SPAXX.works for me - being essentially a store of “dry powder” in case bargains appear. It’s been interesting, educational - and mildly amusing - watching many posters seeking-out the best rates across the banking industry or treasury market for many months now. I understand and respect their reasons, trusting that’s what works for them.
    As far as RMDs are concerned, at a much earlier age I converted most of my IRA anssets into Roths. The fact that they require no RMDs was a primary reason for so doing. The remaining smaller traditional IRA requires RMDs, but I typically pull more than required from that every year anyway to supplement expenses - the Roth being reserved for larger purchases / unexpected contingencies..
  • CDs versus government bonds
    Right, CDs are paying a bit more, but factoring in tax equivalency and risk, for me it's pretty much a coin toss. Not buying either at the moment. (4.9-5.0 seems to be the top of the range for shorter maturity Ts right now, at least until something shifts in inflation/recession/bank trouble expectations.)
  • No-penalty CDs
    For a few more days now, MainStreet Bank in the DC area is offering a 5% APY 15 month CD. You have to call the bank about an account. Ally Bank is offering a 4.75% 11 month CD, which is not taxable until maturity or redemption. (CDs with maturity of a year or less are tax-deferred until cashed out.)
    https://mstreetbank.com/
    https://www.ally.com/bank/no-penalty-cd/
    MainStreet Bank of Fairfax, Virginia, introduced a 15-month, no-penalty CD with a 5% rate on March 14 but the small bank had planned to roll out the product before the Silicon Valley crisis, says CEO Jeff Dick. He says the bank’s deposits have grown, rather than shrunk, in the wake of Silicon Valley's troubles.
    He added, however, that MainStreet was planning to offer the CD for just three weeks. With many customers shifting deposits since the crisis, “We’re going to keep it out there now” for another week or two. “I definitely want to have more of a cushion.”
    USA Today via MSN
    If one is expecting rates to continue rising, or at least not fall, no-penalty CDs can be a good option if one can come close to "regular" CDs with withdrawal penalties or broker-sold CDs.
  • RMDs and Credit Unions
    @motmot,
    Welcome to the board. Think many folks here may use their brokerage account to park their RMD fund in high yield money market funds (pay over 4%). In contrast, many credit unions and banks pay much less than 4%. My saving account at a credit union pays 0.5%! I keep sufficientl fund to pay the bills, the rest stays at my brokerage.
    Also other products such as treasury bills and broker CDs of various duration that pay even higher yields. One year call-protected CDs can be purchased at Fidelity that yield 5.0%.
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    @rforno: I looked at the four CGGO managers' bios and found a decidedly international bent to the team. 2 are Europeans based in Geneva, 1 a Brit based in Singapore, and 1 American working from SF. At least 3 manage(d) a global growth and income fund listed in Luxembourg. Capital Group seems to be able to keep their talent, as these folks have remained there for some time. CGGO currently holds about 50% US stocks. The fund traded more than 1M shares today, so no problem with liquidity or big spreads.
    By way of contrast, Harbor brought an international ETF to market last fall (OSEA). I have been following it, but have given up on buying it because it hasn't attracted much interest at all. This afternoon, when international ETFs were doing quite well, OSEA had traded only 1 share.
    Yup, which is among the reasons I respect them. Sure, I have quibbles about their need to offer 20+ share classes of funds, many of which have front-end loads, but on the whole, they're a huge low-key company that often flies under the radar -- and rarely has folks doing the CNBC thing, which also says a lot about their priorities, I think.
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    @rforno: I looked at the four CGGO managers' bios and found a decidedly international bent to the team. 2 are Europeans based in Geneva, 1 a Brit based in Singapore, and 1 American working from SF. At least 3 manage(d) a global growth and income fund listed in Luxembourg. Capital Group seems to be able to keep their talent, as these folks have remained there for some time. CGGO currently holds about 50% US stocks. The fund traded more than 1M shares today, so no problem with liquidity or big spreads.
    By way of contrast, Harbor brought an international ETF to market last fall (OSEA). I have been following it, but have given up on buying it because it hasn't attracted much interest at all. This afternoon, when international ETFs were doing quite well, OSEA had traded only 1 share.
  • CDs versus government bonds
    Bouncy bouncy. 4m T's back to 5%, 6m 4.92% at the close.
  • What was the San Francisco Fed's role in SVB collapse?
    Following are abridged excerpts from an excellent article by Kathleen Pender, in The San Francisco Chronicle:
    One of the biggest questions to come out of the Silicon Valley Bank debacle is: Where were the regulators?
    SVB’s regulators for safety and soundness were the Federal Reserve, primarily the San Francisco Fed, and the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, known as DFPI. Although hindsight is 20-20, there were some big red flags waving at SVB.
    Some short sellers, who bet on stocks they think will fall, and other investors saw warning signs. One author who posts under the name CashFlow Hunter on SeekingAlpha.com pretty much nailed it in a Dec. 19 post titled “SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk.”
    The Fed reportedly stepped up its oversight of SVB and issued six warnings last year. But it failed to take decisive action before the state regulator seized the bank and turned it over to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on March 10. Hoping to prevent contagion, the government agreed to guarantee all deposits in SVB and Signature Bank, which failed on March 12, and provide a lifeline in the form of emergency loans to other banks.
    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seemed to acknowledge regulatory lapses in a press conference last week, when he said, “Clearly we do need to strengthen supervision and regulation.” Both the Fed and DFPI said they are reviewing their oversight of SVB and will issue reports in early May. Until then, both declined to discuss their supervision of the bank.
    What went wrong at SVB?
    Although SVB mainly served venture-backed tech and biotech startups, it wasn’t done in by its own loan portfolio. Its problem stemmed from an old-fashioned maturity mismatch between assets (such as loans and securities) and liabilities (such as deposits). From December 2019 to December 2021 – when tech was booming and companies were flush with cash from venture capital and initial public offerings – SVB’s deposits tripled, to $189.2 billion.
    Because its customers didn’t need a lot of loans, the bank invested a big chunk of these deposits in long-term bonds backed by government-backed mortgages and Treasury bonds. Although these bonds had almost no default risk, they had gobs of interest-rate risk. SVB purchased most of these bonds when interest rates were near historic lows because they yielded a bit more than short-term securities. When the Fed started ratcheting up interest rates in March 2022 to fight raging inflation, the bonds lost value.
    To meet withdrawals, the bank announced on March 8 that it had sold bonds at a $1.8 billion loss and planned to sell $2 billion in stock. The next day, its shares fell 60%, sparking a lightning-speed run on the bank. SVB was seized the following day.
    What were the red flags?
    A big one: About 96% of its deposits at the end of last year were uninsured – the highest of any bank with more than $50 billion in assets, according to S&P Global. The average for all U.S. banks is a little below half, said Amit Seru, a finance professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business. Another was its bulging bond portfolio. In 2021, the bank had taken steps to “hedge” or reduce its interest rate risk, but by the end of 2022, it had virtually no hedging in place, according to the Wall Street Journal. Also, the bank was also without a chief risk officer for eight months last year.
    Why did SVB have so many uninsured deposits?
    It generally required its loan customers to keep all of their banking deposits at SVB. Even if it wasn’t a requirement, most startups keep all of their cash at a single bank because it’s convenient.
    Who regulated SVB?
    It’s complicated. Banks can choose to be chartered by the state or federal government. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency regulates nationally chartered banks. State-chartered banks “have both federal and state oversight,” the DFPI said via email. In California, state-chartered banks that are members of the Federal Reserve System have the Fed as their primary federal regulator. SVB was in this category.
    The FDIC is the primary federal regulator for California-chartered banks that are not Fed members. San Francisco’s First Republic Bank, which is also under pressure, is in this camp. California requires almost all banks to be examined at least once a year. “We fulfill this obligation with the help of our federal regulatory partners through joint examinations,” the DFPI wrote.
    Neither the DFPI nor the Fed would say who did what at SVB. In addition, all banks in California have FDIC insurance and therefore must comply with certain FDIC rules. SVB’s consumer activities were regulated by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. And its publicly traded parent company was regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Fed.
    Which regulator was responsible for preventing the bank’s failure?
    Did the Fed take any steps to prevent a failure? Yes, according to news reports citing unnamed sources, but not enough. As early as 2019, the Fed alerted management to problems with the bank’s risk controls, the Wall Street Journal reported. In early 2022, the San Francisco Fed appointed a more senior team of examiners to SVB, Bloomberg said.
    Last year, examiners issued about six citations known as “matters requiring attention” and “matters requiring immediate attention.” These are “supervisory memos urging but not compelling action,” the Journal reported. Powell seemed to confirm the six citations.
    According to the New York Times, by July 2022, the bank “was in a full supervisory review,” and was “ultimately rated deficient for governance and controls. It was placed under restrictions that prevented it from growing through acquisitions.” By early this year it was in a horizontal review that identified additional weaknesses. But “at that point, the bank’s days were numbered.”
    Why didn’t the Fed pay more attention to how its interest-rate increases would affect bank solvency?
    “Their mindset was inflation, inflation, inflation,” said Stanford finance professor Amit Seru.
    SVB is often called unique, because of its concentrated client base, large unrealized bond losses and enormous level of uninsured deposits. But while it was extreme, it is hardly the only bank at risk of a run. Other banks took in large deposits in 2020-21 and invested them in long-term bonds that seemed safe, at least from default.
    An academic study published shortly after the bank failed looked at more than 4,800 U.S. banks to gauge their exposure to interest-rate and deposit-flight risk, the factors that led to SVB’s collapse. They found that the average bank’s bonds and other long-term assets have lost around 10% percent of their value over the past year and are worth about 9% less than the value shown on their books. About 10% of banks had worse levels of unrealized losses than SVB. But in terms of uninsured deposits as a percent of assets, SVB was in the top 1%.
    The researchers estimated banks’ ability to withstand a run under various withdrawal scenarios. In one, it assumed that half of all uninsured deposits flee. “The bank under this case is considered insolvent if the (market) value of assets – after paying all uninsured depositors – is insufficient to repay all insured deposits,” the authors wrote. In this case, 186 banks holding about $300 billion in insured deposits would be considered insolvent. Most are small and mid-size banks but several are large, with more than $250 billion in assets.
    “There is no doubt a ton of stress in the banking system,” said Stanford’s Seru, one of the co-authors. “But because of what the Fed has done, we are not going to see failures, at least that come out, in the immediate future. The Fed has to figure out how to take many weak banks in the system and either shut them down or have them consolidate into something that is viable.” *
    * Text emphasis added.