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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • New Retiree question. Use more than one retail brokerage for whatever reason ???
    Hi @hank et al
    I recall others here, over the years writing about similar restrictions at other organizations, too, regarding restrictions; trading mutual funds (OEF's).
    This is a general Fidelity overview, believed to be accurate. Full legal details are available at their web site, regarding trading restrictions.
    --- Fidelity has strict rules regarding trading its own funds to discourage excessive, short-term trading. These include a "roundtrip" policy that blocks future purchases for 85 days after a second roundtrip is made within 90 days or the fourth across all Fidelity funds in a 12-month period.
    Other rules include specific trading restrictions for different account types, such as pattern day trading restrictions for margin accounts, and restrictions for "good faith" and "free riding" violations in cash accounts. 
    Excessive trading policy Roundtrip limit: A roundtrip is defined as a purchase and then a sale or exchange sell of a mutual fund within 30 days.
    Second roundtrip: A second roundtrip in a single fund within 90 days results in an 85-day block on purchases and exchanges for that fund.
    Four roundtrips: Making four roundtrips across all Fidelity funds within 12 months will trigger an 85-day block on purchases and exchanges for all accounts linked to the same Social Security number.
    Exemptions: These rules generally do not apply to amounts under \(\$25,000\), Fidelity Money Market Funds, dividend/capital gains reinvestments sold within 30 days, or through automatic investments/withdrawals. 
    Account-specific restrictions Margin accounts: Day trading is defined as buying and selling the same security on the same day. Pattern day traders must maintain a minimum equity of \(\$25,000\).
    Cash accounts: "Good faith" violations can occur by selling a security purchased with unsettled funds before it settles. A "free riding" violation occurs when you sell a security without ever having paid for it.
    Consequences: Three good faith violations or one free riding violation in a 12-month period will result in a 90-day restriction requiring you to trade only with settled funds.
    Day trade calls: For margin accounts, a day trade call is generated when opening trades exceed your day trade buying power and are closed the same day.
    Meeting calls: You have five business days to meet a day trade call.
    Restrictions: Three day trade liquidations (selling an existing position to meet a day trade call) within a 12-month period will result in a restricted status. 
    Other trading rules 
    Day trading: A "pattern day trader" is generally defined as someone who executes four or more day trades within a 12-month period.
    Good faith violations: Selling a security that was purchased with unsettled funds before the funds have settled is a "good faith" violation.
    Free riding violations: This occurs when you sell a security without ever having paid for it.
    Restrictions: Violations can lead to trading restrictions, such as the 90-day restriction to only use settled funds. 
  • BOA Warns of Emerging Credit Risks Tied to Sports Gaming & Prediction Markets
    Story
    “Easy access and gamified interfaces encourage frequent and impulsive wagers, which can lead to overextension of credit and rising loan defaults,” wrote a team of analysts led by Mihir Bhatia. “For investors this convergence of entertainment and speculative finance signals heightened behavioral risk that could pressure credit quality, increase delinquencies, and impact earnings for issuers and subprime lenders.”
    Similar Story
    “At its best, the embrace of events-based contracts could represent a new asset class: event outcomes traded with derivatives-grade infrastructure transparency and liquidity,” the report said. “At its worst, it could serve as a potential regulatory arbitrage path around state gaming laws, one with thin consumer protections and opaque payout mechanics.”
  • New Retiree question. Use more than one retail brokerage for whatever reason ???
    Fido put trading restrictions on my account for a time for reasons they wouldn’t share with me (although I had an inkling). There was no ETA for when they would be lifted nor was there any information I could provide to allay their concerns. The restrictions were eventually lifted. I was glad I had accounts with Chuck if I needed to make some market moves.
    Sorry to hear. I had trading restrictions big time at Fido right after transferring to them. Sucks. So you make a great point about spreading risk around. To view restrictions click on “Balances” at the top first. Then scroll down to near bottom of page.
    ISTM a trading restriction prevents your using the proceeds from a sale (unsettled funds) immediately for some other purchase. That was a bigger problem before they cut settlement time back from 2 days to 1. The easiest way (but not the only way) to incur a restriction is to buy something with unsettled funds and then turn right around and sell it before the funds used to buy it have settled.
    In addition I found Fidelity had some unusually strict rules regarding trading their own funds that are different from dealing with other providers. So be sure to check those if own any. It’s one reason I hardly ever own their own funds.
    Support? As I noted elsewhere, I think the phone support at Fido has slipped since I transferred in 5-6 years ago.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Continuing to re-invest redeemed agency bonds:
    Federal Home Loan Bank - 5yr w/2-y call protected
    CUSIP 3130B8JD5
    YTW - 3.847
    YTM - 3.863
    YTC - 3.847
    Coupon - 3.875
    Picked this agency bond for our taxable acct. As a federally funded loan, it is state tax exempt.
  • This Day in Markets History
    From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
    On this day in 1835, Andrew Carnegie was born in Scotland.
    Carnegie came to the U.S. when he was 13 and went on to forge the steel industry
    that made America’s railroads, bridges and cars possible.
    By 1901 he was the world’s richest man.
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    @sma3. Good info....but.
    As usual, you need to know what you are doing.
    Original is great in most places.
    Advantage choices are great in big cities with many options.
    I would never go for HMO.
    If I lived in a smaller town and/or not many choices, Original would be my choice.
    I'm reviewing Boston-area PPO plans. The Medicare.gov site clearly lists hospital options.
    The Mass General Brigham Advantage website is not user friendly. I'm not spending much more time on it. I added two providers from Mass General Hospital, and several PPOs show up as accepting them, including Mass General Brigham Advantage (PPO).
    Given that, I’m confident I can use providers and get procedures at Mass General under this plan.
    Worst case: if coverage becomes an issue, you can relocate or establish residency in another county to qualify for Original Medicare.
    Yes, this is the one I signed my wife up for, as it most resembles our defunct Tufts MCA zero-prem PPO w lots of bennies. (For myself I am waiting for some cancer path lab testing this or next week before I think harder about what would be best.) I get why companies have had to fold the cheapest MCA plans.
    Note that the MGB provider pdf database is really poky ... you can think your fave docs are not showing and not there, and then after 20s of thinking they appear.
    sma3's insider remarks are, well, interesting is hardly the word. A friend of mine used to head BCBS, but I have not socialized with him much recently.
    When you call Tufts (not really anything to do w Tufts) to kvetch about their ceasing zero-prem MCA PPOs, they steer you hard toward MC gap and drug supplements.
    I believe that if one is unhappy in January - March with their new plan, there is an option to switch. Probably already covered here.
    Mona et alia,
    Speaking of ACA, this will curl your hair if you care about those who do not know what they are doing (link good for a few days):
    https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-obamacare-open-enrollment-google-search/?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc2NDEwMzY4NCwiZXhwIjoxNzY0NzA4NDg0LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUNjRKV1FLSVAzSVkwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI4NzhCQTQyMzJFOTU0RTVBOTI5M0JCMzI5MjU0NjkwRSJ9.z66KZy45Nl9LupQqJz-jAwgk8f80jyCJZ49633CEElE
  • SSGA to split five ETFs
    https://investors.statestreet.com/investor-news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/State-Street-Investment-Management-Announces-Share-Splits-for-Five-Select-Sector-SPDR-ETFs/default.aspx
    The Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund
    The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR® Fund
    The Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund
    The Utilities Select Sector SPDR® Fund
    The Materials Select Sector SPDR® Fund
  • Sentiment & market Indicators, 11/19/25
    ”Should one buy here? There seem selected opportunities - lots of stuff is lagging in this narrowly led market. But beware that the lagging stuff would also be hit hard in any market selloff.”
    All true.
    I’m leary of markets overall (especially high-flying tech). Continue to hold small 1X shorts on the S&P and Dow which dampens daily volatility. Shorting the QQQ would be too risky IMHO. I think there’s opportunity in some of the really beaten up stuff in the mid or small cap area, left behind by the momentum chasers. Own small slices of 12 such stocks. Most were down 30-50% over the past year when I bought. They’ve dipped and then gotten back above break-even in the few weeks since picking up most. You really need to close your eyes if holding this stuff - and spread the risk around. Also, buy in over time, not all at once.
  • Are you taking distributions this year in cash or reinvesting?
    I do both depending on which holding is distributing the cash. Most of my distributions originate in my Roth account where currently taxation is of no concern.
    For single equities I generally take the cash and reinvest it where I think it might do me the most good. For equity ETF's I tend to let the distributions just be reinvested because they are never that large to worry much about.
    For my CEF funds I am split 50-50. Some offer a 5% discount to market price on reinvestments or reinvestment at NAV vs. market price. Those I tend to reinvest. Other CEF's don't offer those perks so their distributions I just let accumulate in my cash account for dry powder or where again I feel they do the most good.
  • The ‘S&P 493’ reveals a very different U.S. economy
    Here an animation that does a nice job of illustrating how, over any period of time, the S&P 500 has always had a group of over weighted (by cap weight) set of companies, that move in and out as well as up and down on the top ten list.

    S&P top ten over time:
    The-10-Largest-SP-500-Companies
  • The ‘S&P 493’ reveals a very different U.S. economy
    From @Sven's link:
    Nonetheless, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft are set to collectively sink around $400 billion on AI this year, mostly for funding data centers. Some of the companies are set to devote about 50% of their current cash flow to data center construction.
    Or to put it another way: every iPhone user on earth would have to pay more than $250 to pay for that amount of spending. "That's not going to happen," Kedrosky said.
    One reason it won't happen is because Apple is not investing in AI the way the other companies are. https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/apple-s-12-7b-ai-bet-defies-big-tech-s-capex-arms-race.
    OTOH, they do have a history of making big announcements to placate politicians. This article at Forbes is paywalled, but I got in for free, you might too.
    When I asked Andy Thurai, VP and principal analyst at Constellation Research, what he thought about Apple’s latest announcement to invest all that money in the United States, he said “Apple is known to navigate the political scenes smartly but never follow through with it.” That’s not what you’d expect to hear, especially when you consider the sheer size of this multibillion dollar investment — but Thurai’s answer is steeped in history.
    For example, he said, right after former U.S. President Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021, Apple pledged to spend $430 billion and add 20,000 jobs over five years and that never materialized. “They also pledged during Trump’s first term that they would directly contribute to the U.S. economy in the order of $350 billion over the next five years and create 20,000 jobs, which they didn’t follow through either,” Thurai added.
  • The ‘S&P 493’ reveals a very different U.S. economy
    Thanks for sharing @Old_Joe. Someone said this AI-mania ended worse, much worse than that of the dot-com bubble.
    Here is a piece I read from NPR (there are many others i come across). Short excerpt:
    There is reason to be skeptical. A growing body of research indicates most firms are not seeing chatbots affect their bottom lines, and just 3% of people pay for AI, according to one analysis.
    "These models are being hyped up, and we're investing more than we should," said Daron Acemoglu, an economist at MIT, who was awarded the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
    Bubbling questions about the limits of the AI revolution
    CONSIDER THIS FROM NPR
    Bubbling questions about the limits of the AI revolution
    "I have no doubt that there will be AI technologies that will come out in the next ten years that will add real value and add to productivity, but much of what we hear from the industry now is exaggeration," he said.
    Nonetheless, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft are set to collectively sink around $400 billion on AI this year, mostly for funding data centers. Some of the companies are set to devote about 50% of their current cash flow to data center construction.
    Or to put it another way: every iPhone user on earth would have to pay more than $250 to pay for that amount of spending. "That's not going to happen," Kedrosky said.
    To avoid burning up too much of its cash on hand, big Silicon Valley companies, like Meta and Oracle, are tapping private equity and debt to finance the industry's data center building spree.
    https://npr.org/2025/11/23/nx-s1-5615410/ai-bubble-nvidia-openai-revenue-bust-data-centers
  • Conestoga Mid Cap Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1175813/000139834425021228/fp0096306-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0096306-1_497.htm
    CONESTOGA FUNDS
    CONESTOGA MID CAP Fund
    Supplement dated November 24, 2025
    to the Prospectus dated January 31, 2025
    THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED IN THE PROSPECTUS. THIS SUPPLEMENT SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROSPECTUS.
    On November 19, 2025, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Conestoga Funds determined to close and liquidate the Conestoga Mid Cap Fund (the “Fund”), effective on or about January 31, 2026. This decision was made after careful consideration from the Fund’s investment adviser, Conestoga Capital Advisors, LLC, of the Fund’s asset size, strategic importance, current expenses and historical performance. In connection with the pending liquidation, the Fund will discontinue accepting orders for the purchase of Fund shares after the close of business on November 24, 2025.
    On or around the close of business on January 31, 2026, the Fund will distribute pro rata all of its assets in cash to its shareholders, and all outstanding shares will be redeemed and cancelled. Prior to that time, the proceeds from the liquidation of portfolio securities will be invested in cash equivalent securities or held in cash. During this time, the Fund may hold more cash, cash equivalents or other short-term investments than normal, which may prevent the Fund from meeting its stated investment objective.
    BECAUSE THE FUND WILL BE CLOSED AND LIQUIDATED ON OR ABOUT JANUARY 31, 2026, WE RECOMMEND THAT YOU CONSIDER SELLING YOUR SHARES PRIOR TO THAT DATE. You may sell shares on any business day by contacting us directly by mail or by telephone at 1-800-494-2755. If you invest through a financial institution, you should contact the financial institution for more information on how to sell your shares. If you still hold shares of the Fund on or about January 31, 2026, we will automatically redeem your shares for cash and remit the proceeds to you (via check or wire) based on the instructions listed on your account.
    The sale or liquidation of your shares will generally be a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation.
    Please contact Conestoga Funds at 1-800-494-2755 for more information.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • The ‘S&P 493’ reveals a very different U.S. economy
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post:
    A few trillion-dollar companies are powering the market’s gains. Here’s what’s happening to most other businesses in the United States.
    On its face, 2025 has been a good year for the stock market. The S&P 500 was dragged out of its tariff-induced springtime slump by a small subset of AI-forward power players whose spectacular gains defied an otherwise softening economy. Even now, despite a rocky November, the benchmark index is up more than 12 percent since the start of the year.
    A group of trillion-dollar brands known as the “Magnificent Seven” — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — has been at the forefront of those gains, thanks in large part to corporate spending and intense interest in artificial intelligence. But economists and investors are raising concerns about the companies that aren’t part of the AI investment boom — in other words, most businesses in the United States.
    An index that leaves out the seven high-flying tech firms — call it the S&P 493 — reveals a far weaker picture, as smaller and lower-tech companies report lackluster sales and declining investment.
    “You have the headwind of de-globalization and tariffs, and the tailwind of AI … those forces are battling to a draw, and in that crosswind you get winners and losers,” said Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. “Anything that is not connected to AI is throttled lower.”

                            Strip out the Magnificent 7 and the rally looks less impressive
    image
    Some experts are worried that the S&P 500, an index of large-company stocks that underpins the fortunes of millions of Americans with 401(k) and other retirement accounts, has become too reliant on the Magnificent Seven; they collectively account for about a third of its value, leaving the broader stock market heavily dependent on the continued success of “the AI trade,” says Torsten Slok, chief economist at the private equity firm Apollo Global Management.
    “There is no diversification in the S&P 500 anymore in my view … it is all the AI story now,” Slok said.
    Publicly traded small and midsize companies have taken a beating by comparison. The Russell 2000 lost 4.5 percent in the one-month period leading up to Friday, compared with a loss of around 2 percent for the S&P 500. A little more than a third of the companies in the Russell 2000 index either don’t make money or are losing money.
    The market’s concentration in Big Tech has also given rise to concerns about what would be left if an AI bubble were to burst. Those fears have been amplified in recent weeks as Big Tech names suffered a modest sell-off, with some analysts raising concerns that the AI industry has overspent on infrastructure at a time when the technology’s actual profit-generating potential is still nascent.
    Tech stocks have endured a series of rocky sell-offs since late October, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index falling around 7 percent from its Oct. 29 peak. Markets rebounded Friday, with the index trimming some of its losses from earlier in the week.
    Slok, the Apollo economist, says he is particularly worried about the recent AI losses because so much of the recent economic growth has been shored up by free-spending wealthy households. A deep correction in AI stocks, if it ever arrived, could threaten the “wealth effect” that is doing so much to prop up the economy, Slok warned.

  • Sentiment & market Indicators, 11/19/25
    SENTIMENT & MARKET INDICATORS, 11/19/25
    AAII Bull-Bear Spread -11.0% (below average)
    CNN Fear & Greed Index 11 (extreme fear)
    NYSE %Above 50-dMA 34.41% (negative)
    SP500 %Above 50-dMA 36.40% (negative)
    These are contrarian indicators.
    Good information, but the above indicators are not accurate about how markets are likely to react over the next 1, 4, or 16 weeks.
  • New Retiree question. Use more than one retail brokerage for whatever reason ???
    I have accounts at Schwab, Fidelity and Vanguard. Schwab imo is the best one stop shop solution because it has a real bank vs. the other two. So you get Zelle for example. A real bank also makes it easier to wire in/out vs. the convoluted nonsense at Fidelity.
    The biggest downside of Schwab is that the MMF cannot be used as a core fund, there's always manual MMF trading required when one is buying/selling investments. I have never stepped into the offices of any brokerage in 25+ years.
    Schwab has excellent customer service, better than Fidelity or Vanguard by a long stretch. Fidelity has a solid website. Vanguard lowest ER's for sure but sub-par website and customer service.
    The 500K SIPC limit reason for splitting across multiple brokerages and accounts makes intuitive sense but at some point it becomes unwieldy to manage. Honestly, if any of these three brokerages melt down, it will pretty much be beans and bunker time so I wouldn't worry about the 500K thingy.
  • New Retiree question. Use more than one retail brokerage for whatever reason ???
    @gman57 "Haven't been to a brick and mortar bank/brokerage in 20, maybe 30,40 years that I can remember."
    Are you printing your cash needs?
    Joined a credit union back in the early 80's, everything done by mail back then, internet now.
    Cash == ATM's that have been around forever at local business like grocery store, gas station once every 6 months or so, even less now. I guess you could call an ATM at 7-11 or Lowe's Food a bank.
  • New Retiree question. Use more than one retail brokerage for whatever reason ???
    @gman57 "Haven't been to a brick and mortar bank/brokerage in 20, maybe 30,40 years that I can remember."
    Are you printing your cash needs?
  • Vanguard Launches Three New Active Equity ETFs
    Vanguard is getting sloppy. What it says about the differences in the two funds is:
    Differences in scale, certain investment processes, and underlying holdings are expected to produce different investment returns by the funds.
    VDIG prospectus
    But on the ETF page Vanguard says:
    Differences in scale, portfolio management strategy (i.e., actively managed or seeking to track an index), certain investment processes, and underlying holdings are expected to produce different investment returns by the funds.
    Both VDIG and VDIGX are actively managed.
    As to the extra 18 basis points, how much is Vanguard paying Wellington Management to market the fund with Wellington™ in its name? (Tongue halfway in cheek, though Wellington could be getting something for allowing its name to be used this way.)