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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PV - SWR, PWR (& SWRM)
    An update.
    PV PWR is less commonly used, so I have stopped using it in more recent data.
    PV SWR is the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawals).
    New SWRM is the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment but at the end of the term, the leftover amount is inflation-adjusted original principal (dollar amount withdrawals).
    Three examples below use the start dates of 01/2007 (Pre-GFC), 01/1987 (Year of 1987 Crash), 01/2000 (Year of Dot.com bubble burst). Idea is to select "bad" starts of withdrawal programs in recent history and see how various hybrid funds did; VFINX/SP500 is included for benchmark comparison. The end date is common 10/2023 (so, these data are not comparable to those in the examples in the June 2023 Post).
    Example 1 - Period 01/2007 - 10/2023 that included GFC 2008-09 and pandemic 2020.
    FUND SWR SWRM SWRM (corrected)
    VWELX 8.63% 4.35% 4.37%
    FBALX 8.17% 4.28% 4.09%
    ABALX 8.27% 3.92% 3.99%
    VFINX 8.05% 5.02% 4.82%
    Example 2 - Period 01/1987 - 10/2023. Limited by 11/1986 inception for FBALX, although the (free) PV data goes back to 01/1985.
    FUND SWR SWRM SWRM (corrected)
    VWELX 7.89% 7.03% 7.035%
    FBALX 7.43% 6.58% 6.545%
    ABALX 7.63% 6.69% 6.70%
    VFINX 8.82% 8.15% 8.106%
    Example 3 - Period 01/2000 - 10/2023 captured the dot.com bubble burst and was possibly the worst start for withdrawal programs in the recent history.
    FUND SWR SWRM SWRM (corrected)
    VWELX 7.25% 4.80% 4.82%
    FBALX 6.83% 4.58% 4.47%
    ABALX 7.40% 4.83% 4.865%
    VFINX 4.34% 2.52% 2.40%
    If higher withdrawal rates than indicated are used, then the goals would be missed. But if lower withdrawal rates are used, then the balances at the end would be higher than the goals. The goal for the SWR is $0 balance; goal for the SWRM is the inflation-adjusted original principal.
    It is interesting that all-stock SP500 did the best in Examples 1 and 2, but the worst in Example 3. That is the danger in using all-stock portfolios in withdrawal programs - they may work much of the time, but may bite occasionally.
    Another point is that the "bad" times are more recent, and don't go back to 1920s or 1930s that included even worse times. And the withdrawal rates these funds sustained in the recent history are higher that the typical Bengen Rule of 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1249/thread
    Edit/Add, 11/19/23. SWRM (corrected)
    For data consistency, the PV runs should be to 2022 (recent full year), not 2023 (partial year in 11/2023). While SWR is unaffected, SWRM is affected and is corrected.
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    @BaluBalu GMO rebalances the portfolio monthly, so the 15% on M* seems low...it's more like ~50% from our view.
    Appreciate your responses to my questions. Do you by any chance know the monthly rebalance dates / schedule? My interest is more not to sell right before rebalancing if I ever get an urge to sell. Obviously, I am hoping this to be a buy and hold but like to think about exit strategy before I need to exit.
    Thanks Yogi re M* port
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    @BaluBalu GMO rebalances the portfolio monthly, so the 15% on M* seems low...it's more like ~50% from our view.
  • High Yearend Distributions
    @Observant1 mentioned this high CG distribution earlier - JPEAX, JPECX, JPDEX, JPELX (AUM $853 million)
    How can things go so wrong in a "Tax Aware" fund? Of course, heavy redemptions and/or manager incompetence.
    JPM is also mad and is just shutting down the fund, TwitterLINK
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312523277672/d372772d497.htm
    Edit/Add. Looking at fund data for JPDEX from Fido and M*, this Fund has been in redemption for years, and has distributed large CGs before. So, the question is, what took JPM so long to kill it?
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/view-all/4812A1654
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/jpdex/performance
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/15/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/15/23
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (43.8%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (28.1%, tie; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (28.1%, tie; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +15.7% (above average). Investor concerns: Budget; inflation; economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine (90+ weeks, 2/24/22-now); Israel-Hamas (5+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds flat, oil up, gold up, dollar down. The US budget extended to January/February. Presidents Biden & Xi (China) met at APEC in SF. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1256/thread
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    @yogibearbull,
    Thank you for checking. That is transparent.
    M* shows portfolio turnover for GQETX - 15%; JQUA - 18%; QUAL - 58%. The as of dates are different and as you all know because of how M* calculates turnover, fund flows can impact the turnover percentage. When I look at outflows, they are very small for all three funds. @rsorden can perhaps clue us in about the actual portfolio turnover for GQETX.
    Folks might complain even more about the ER if the turnover is truly so low but I guess GMO can not undercut its own mutual fund with a lower ER for the ETF, though the products are not identical. I checked a few active ETFs I know and their ER varies from 0.3% (TRP) to 0.6% (Fidelity). JPM is in between.
    I only talked about ER in my earlier post only as one of the measures of the fund's appeal for investors (e.g., liquidity) because a lot of investors are sensitive to ER, which M* and Vanguard have drilled into investors' psyche. Per M*, MOAT ER is 0.46%.
    To me the 0.5% ER is acceptable if the fund outperforms the indexed quality ETFs and I hope (for my sake) that is acceptable to other investors as well.
  • American Beacon FEAC Floating Rate Income Fund share class conversion
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000113322823006031/abfeacfrif-html6974_497.htm
    497 1 abfeacfrif-html6974_497.htm AMERICAN BEACON FEAC FLOATING RATE INCOME FUND - 497
    American Beacon FEAC Floating Rate Income Fund
    Supplement dated November 15, 2023 to the
    Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    each dated December 29, 2022, as previously amended or supplemented
    The Board of Trustees of American Beacon Funds has approved (i) the automatic conversion of the SP Class shares of the American Beacon FEAC Floating Rate Income Fund (the “Fund”) into A Class shares, and (ii) the termination of the SP Class shares of the Fund, effective as of the close of business on December 29, 2023 (the “Conversion Date"), based upon the recommendation of American Beacon Advisors, Inc., the Fund’s investment manager. Effective immediately, the Fund will no longer accept purchases of SP Class shares.
    No action is needed on your part. Each SP Class shareholder will receive A Class shares in an amount equal to the value of the shareholder’s SP Class shares as of the Conversion Date. Please be advised that the net annual fund operating expenses of the A Class shares will be the same as the net annual fund operating expenses of the SP Class shares as of the Conversion Date. No sales loads, commissions or other transactional fees will be imposed on shareholders in connection with the automatic conversion of their shares. Prior to the Conversion Date, shareholders of SP Class shares may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus. No sales charges, redemption fees or termination fees will be imposed in connection with such redemptions. In general, redemptions are taxable events for shareholders. For federal income tax purposes, the conversion of shares of one share class of the Fund to shares of a different share class of the Fund is not expected to result in the realization of a capital gain or loss. You should consult your tax adviser to discuss the conversion and determine its tax consequences.
    For more information, please contact us at 1-800-658-5811, Option 1. If you purchased shares of the Fund through your financial intermediary, please contact your broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for further details.
    ***********************************************************
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    It started the day with an NAV of $25.28. Took a bookmark position to see how it trades.
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    It started with 35 investments. I am calling it focused to semi-focused - there may be an industry definition but I have not checked. I think the 35 is consistent with @rsorden earlier post.
    Its ER is 0.5%, the same as the ER of GQETX - their Global Quality mutual fund. The two popular US Quality ETFs, QUAL and JQUA, sport an ER of 0.15% or less - but both follow their respective indices; while QLTY is active.
    QLTY disclosed its holdings; perhaps, they are not worried about others trying to mimic GQETX, assuming the US holdings of GQETX and QLTY are always the same. May be someone can check the prospectus if QLTY is designed to be a transparent ETF.
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    I took an initial position as today's volume was decent and B-A spread was the acceptable 1 penny. I tried to figure out its starting AUM and the two sites I use for ETFs do not even recognize the ticker yet. Neither did M*.
    Looking at the holdings spreadsheet at their site, its launch AUM was $3.1M. That is very, very low relative to the trade volume today and unless the AUM bulks up soon, trade volume could drop drastically and exiting the position could become a problem, with wider B-A spreads. I normally do not buy into any ETF until it reaches close to $100M in AUM and never bought one, if ever, with less than $50M in AUM. I am surprised GMO did not seed their first ETF! Not enough commitment to the first born! If I had known about the low AUM, I would not have bought it. Now I will wait and watch.
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    I just checked at Schwab and it is available now… trading at 25.26
  • Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Cashes In on Blue Chip Stocks
    Thanks for that @BaluBalu. Sorry it didn’t work. The FT (to which I subscribe) indicated it would be acceptable (and workable) to share this story.
    Below, I have summarized most (but not all) of the article’s key points. And, I’ve quoted near the end, one especially telling sentence.
    - Berkshire Hathaway cut positions in a number of blue-chip US companies in the third quarter.
    - Buffett used the proceeds to boost cash.
    - The company sold its remaining position in General Motors during the quarter.
    - It closed out a small investment in UPS.
    - It kept HP but reduced the holding by 15 percent.
    - It sold off (completely) small positions in Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble,
    - It reduced holdings in Amazon, Mondelez International, Markel and Globe Life (the last two both insurers).
    - The Financial Times estimates that over the past year, Berkshire has divested itself of $40bn in public equity shares.
    - The paper asserts (without direct substantiation) that Buffett found “5%” T-Bills more attractive.
    - The paper puts Berkshire's cash position at $157bn at the end of September (a record high).
    Here’s one interesting sentence quoted directly from the referenced FT Article:
    “As part of its disclosure, Berkshire noted it had omitted at least one holding from the closely followed report, writing that it had requested confidential treatment from the Securities and Exchange Commission.”
    The article asserts that these types of secrecy arrangements are used occasionally by Buffett to mask especially large purchases. I’d assume that’s to prevent front running or other “unsavory” attempts by investors to profit indirectly from Buffett’s trades (although the article did not so state).
    Referenced Article: ”Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway cashes in on blue-chip US stocks”
    Published in The Financial Times, November 14, 2023 / Byline: Eric Platt
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Hi folks
    Should I sell 25% of portfolio and place in corp bonds (6.5-7% annual returns??)
    -4% from ath
    Scare rug pull another 30% haircuts like from July 20th 2022 until Oct 22 2023
    But Seasonality may show we have another potential +4 +6% upswings til new yr
    Ty for any suggestions
  • Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Cashes In on Blue Chip Stocks
    Sold some big names like Amazon, HP, GM. Boosted cash in most recent report. Received permission from SEC not to disclose one recent purchase.
    Link copied from FT on 11/15/23 with consent
    https://on.ft.com/40HhJ3q
  • GMO U.S. Quality ETF in Registration
    OK, just got info thru 9/30 (all vs S&P 500):
    YTD 22.2 vs 16.9
    1Yr 25.0 vs 19.6
    3Yr 18.5 vs 14.6
    5Yr 15.5 vs 12.3
    10Yr 14.8 vs 12.9
    That is impressive.
    Just to make sure I understood the above returns.
    They are GMO's SMA portfolio returns using the US-only (Quality) strategy for one of their clients. Right? Why returns for only one client. If they have the strategy already implemented, I would have thought multiple clients would have already had SMA under this strategy. I am a bit confused. Please clarify / expand on your returns post.
  • Interactive Brokers for Mutual Funds
    What would be covered under "Equity"?
    I don't pretend to know what IBKR has in mind. However, generally speaking equity means an ownership interest regardless of the form of ownership. It is broader than stock ownership, i.e. owning shares of a stock-issuing corporation.
    Perhaps the most obvious example here is owning shares of a mutual fund. Funds are typically structured as trusts, not as corporations (though they can be). Nevertheless, "Mutual funds are equity investments, as individual stocks are. When you buy shares of a fund, you become a part owner of the fund, and you share in its profits."
    https://www.finra.org/investors/investing/investment-products/mutual-funds
    I simply searched the IBKR website
    A good way to search IBKR for answers is to use the FAQ search box.
    https://www.interactivebrokers.com/lib/cstools/faq/#/
    I tried to figure out if I can wire funds from IBKR to other brokerages and banks and how much IBKR would charge.
    Searching FAQs for "wire fees" comes up with the following questions:
    Why was I charged a fee for a wire deposit?
    Neither IBKR or its agent bank charges for electronic deposits of any currency other than MXN
    https://www.ibkr.com/faq?id=27284795
    Why was I charged a fee for a cash withdrawal?
    IBKR allows one free withdrawal request per calendar month. Subsequent withdrawals, regardless of method, are charged a fee. The fee charged depends upon the denomination of the currency withdrawn and the withdrawal method. Please see the Interactive Brokers website for details.
    https://www.ibkr.com/faq?id=46314916
    That embedded link to "the Interactive Brokers website" brings you to the same page I gave above for withdrawal fees.
  • Medicare Part D Plans
    There are a few Medigap plans that offer additional benefits, like dental, vision, and hearing. I think I read somewhere that these amount to 5% of Medigap plans, but the fraction may not be even that high and I don't know how to find such plans easily.
    The added benefits may be included automatically or may be available via optional riders (as opposed to separate policies). Medicare Advantage plans likewise may bundle benefits in either of these ways.
    Some Medigap plans may also offer dental or vision benefits as a rider or “add-on” to the standard Medigap policy. These benefits may provide coverage for routine dental and vision care, such as dental cleanings, eye exams, and eyeglasses. With add-on coverage, you can turn it down but you usually cannot purchase without buying a Medigap plan at the same time.
    ...
    [Another variant] is the dental, hearing, and vision Medigap insurance bundles. In this case, when you purchase the Medigap policy, you get added dental, vision, or hearing whether you want it or not.
    https://www.senior65.com/medicare/article/what-medigap-plan-covers-dental-vision-and-hearing
    The term of art is "innovative benefits" or "innovative plan". See, e.g.
    https://www.medicarefaq.com/medicare-supplements/innovative-plan-f/
    The number of innovative plans seems to be trending downward.
    https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2021/small-share-medicare-supplement-plans-offer-access-dental-vision-and-other-benefits-not
    Note that a Medigap plan, no matter how innovative, cannot include Part D coverage, unless it was grandfathered before 2005:
    Medigap plans sold after 2005 don’t include prescription drug coverage. So, if you enroll in Medigap for the first time, it won’t include drug coverage.
    https://www.medicare.gov/health-drug-plans/medigap/basics/how-medigap-works
  • Medicare Part D Plans
    WellCare Value Script PDP. That's mine. It bites. It truly bites. I don't yet need anything more expensive. My doctor helps a LOT with samples. The time may come when I bail out on this Part D Plan. It sucks year-old goose-eggs that have spent the winter in the snow.
    Something I bumped into: if I understand correctly, the HUGE, MONSTROUS, GARGANTUAN co-pay for the Tier 3,4 and 5 drugs is a one-time thing, each year. Thereafter, it's not so egregiously awful, but still big-time expensive to buy those drugs. I just won't do it.
    (Trulicity = $450 co-pay. That's not a typo. Doesn't matter if it's for 1 month or 3 months. Either way, it ought to be f*****g ILLEGAL.)
  • The BOND KING says
    Shave every day? Hell, I gave that junk up a long time ago. Grew up Irish and Catholic. Poured into a stiff, unbending, inflexible mold while growing up. Stuck with it for too long. Then I made a marriage mistake, but it opened up a whole new world. And I also have a son. :)
    Symbolism is powerful and runs deep. Lots of folks throw it over their shoulder and don't see the sense it makes. That's anti-intellectualism. That's a damnable sin.
    https://www.amazon.com/Power-Myth-Joseph-Campbell/dp/0385418868
    Now, what did Jeff Gundlach have to say about anything today? Gotta stay on-topic.