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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    Everyone already saw the backward looking indicators. And everyone read that even the WSJ says "too soon" to tell. Including former Trump economic advisor. and head of Morgan Stanley, Jamie Dimon.
    "Good" is relative. Biden had essentially the same GDP, job, inflation and other stats throughout 2023/2024 with back-to-back S&P earnings of 25%. We are sitting at ~2% mid-year for 2025. All of MAGA world bemoaned similar numbers from Biden. except Biden didn't take a roaring stock market and put a muffler on it. I am sure you will admit now though, that Biden's numbers were good?
    It could be argued that Trump is enjoying the Biden tailwind. GDP has been revised downward for 2025 several times. It isn't looking pretty.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    When the general numbers don't work, try to find anything else.
    We have seen many posts about eggs over $5, they went down to under $3, and where do you find it? in the mice letters on page 50.
    wait, let's mention tariffs in every thread, no matter what.
    Read the OP "The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. It went down from 2.6% on Dec 24 to 2.1%. This is a four-year low."
    It doesn't matter how you spin it; these numbers are pretty good.
    There are always warnings and worries; the ones who write them love for you to click and how they get paid. Let's discuss actual numbers.
    Sure, nothing is guaranteed in the future, but why not admit it's good?
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    NPR the unbiased source? How about the WSJ (link).
    "Inflation was tame in May, defying fears that the impact of President Trump’s tariffs would start to show a rise in prices.
    Consumer prices rose 0.1% in May over the previous month, less than economists anticipated. Year-over-year inflation was 2.4%, in line with expectations and near a four-year low recorded in April. "
    Anyone can choose to frame and phrase event-descriptions however they like. Are you trying to tell this rather educated crowd in here that the WSJ--- known to offer a clearly conservative penchant--- is unbiased? I can't fart loud enough in response.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    Let's not listen to the people who run retail and logistics businesses, who say that job losses and higher prices are yet to come.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/11/trumps-done-deal-with-china-trade-supply-chain-damage-will-remain.html
    Let's live in a fantasy where 55% tariffs on the $440 billion we import from China is a big nothing burger. That's a $242 billion dollar tax on American businesses and consumers.
    "The CEO of the nation’s largest bank, JPMorgan, warned about again on in comments at an industry conference, with Jamie Dimon saying “I think there’s a chance real numbers will deteriorate soon,” at a Morgan Stanley event on Tuesday"
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    You want inflation info from the Wall Street Journal?? OK- here's this:
    The Canned-Food Aisle Is Getting Squeezed by Rising Steel Tariffs
    Key Points-
    • New Trump administration tariffs on imported steel may cause canned goods to become more expensive for consumers.
    • The Consumer Brands Association warns that 20,000 U.S. jobs in food could be at risk if the tariff on tin-plate drives consumers away from canned goods.
    Steel used in cans is mostly imported—and subject to the Trump administration’s new 50% levy. Edited excerpts from the Wall Street Journal report:
    Cans used for food require tin-coated, ultrathin sheet steel made from molten iron. Not much is produced in the U.S., where domestic producers have been scaling back production for years.
    The Trump administration’s new 50% duty on imported steel could increase store prices for items in steel cans by 9% to 15%, according to the Consumer Brands Association, a trade group. Tariffs are likely to drive up prices for domestic-made steel, too, as U.S. producers raise their own prices.
    Can manufacturers say they will continue to buy lots of imported tin-coated steel, known as tin-plate—because there isn’t enough of it made in the U.S. to supply them. “I would love nothing more than to allocate more purchases to the United States, but the overall production capacity is not there,” said Robert Gatz, general manager of Can Corp. of America, a Pennsylvania-based maker of food cans.
    Tin-plate is made with steel derived from molten iron, but most steel in the U.S. is now made from melted scrap, and that doesn’t measure up to the can industry’s exacting quality standards. Cans are prized for enabling long shelf lives for vegetables, fruit and other ready-to-eat foods, able to keep for years without spoiling. But can manufacturers worry that higher can costs will discourage their use.
    The Consumer Brands Association said as many as 20,000 U.S. jobs in food-can manufacturing could be at risk if the tariff on tin-plate causes consumers to shy away from higher-priced canned goods and food companies migrate to alternative packaging.
    Free link to the Wall Street Journal report-
    Comment: Yet another well-thought-through brute-force Trump dictum. But then, he doesn't do much grocery shopping himself, does he?
  • VGMS - Vanguard Multi Sector Bond ETF
    @Mitchelg -
    Here’s the independentvanguard advisor Jeff Demaso: “While technically a distinct vehicle from the Multi-Sector Income mutual fund, the new ETF is effectively a clone. It’s run by the same trio—Michael Chang, Arvid Narayanan and Danial Shaykevich—and targets the same recently updated blended benchmark.
    The ETF charges a 0.30% expense ratio, identical to the Admiral share class (VMSAX) of the mutual fund and 0.15% cheaper than the Investor shares (VMSIX). That makes the ETF a more cost-effective choice for smaller investors who don’t meet the $50,000 minimum for the Admiral share class.”
    https://www.independentvanguardadviser.com/weekly-brief-steady-numbers-cloudy-outlook-and-a-new-etf/?ref=the-independent-vanguard-adviser-newsletter
    But Vanguard says this: “The Multi-Sector Income Bond Fund is a stand alone product and is separate and distinct from Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS). Differences in scale, certain investment processes, and underlying holdings are expected to produce different investment returns by the funds.”
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    NPR the unbiased source? How about the WSJ (link).
    "Inflation was tame in May, defying fears that the impact of President Trump’s tariffs would start to show a rise in prices.
    Consumer prices rose 0.1% in May over the previous month, less than economists anticipated. Year-over-year inflation was 2.4%, in line with expectations and near a four-year low recorded in April. "
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    Here is data for the month of May’s inflation data.
    Consumer prices in May were up 2.4% from a year ago, according to a report Wednesday from the Labor Department. That's a slightly larger annual increase than the month before.
    But prices rose just 0.1% between April and May — down from 0.2% the month before. Falling gasoline prices helped to offset the rising cost of rent and groceries.
    Trump's tariffs may have contributed to the rising price of some goods in May, such as appliances and toys. But overall goods prices held steady last month. Forecasters expect the cost of tariffs to become more evident in the months to come.
    https://npr.org/2025/06/11/nx-s1-5429597/inflation-tariffs-cpi-economy
  • “No Worries: How to live a stress free financial life” - by Jared Dillian
    I fit Jared in the Grant Cardone camp of guru kind of. He's a smidge more down to earth, but these guys can't even fathom the 9-5, W2 worker lifestyle. Jared kind of tries though. but he is very much a "you have to look the part" guy. I think the issue is he attracts the day wallstreetbets type of person who is ready to go all in on the "don't cut expenses, just make more money" strategy and don't actually make any more money.
    I follow him on twitter and enjoy a lot of his tweets.
  • VGMS - Vanguard Multi Sector Bond ETF
    From prospectus,
    Online Disclosure of Complete Portfolio Holdings
    Actively managed equity funds, unless otherwise stated, generally will seek to disclose complete portfolio holdings as of the end of the most recent calendar quarter online at vanguard.com, 30 calendar days after the end of the calendar quarter. Actively managed fixed income funds will seek to disclose complete portfolio holdings as of the end of the most recent month online at vanguard.com, 15 calendar days after the end of the month. Each Vanguard fund relying on Rule 6c-11 under the 1940 Act (e.g., standalone ETFs) generally will seek to disclose complete portfolio holdings, including other investment positions, at the beginning of each business day.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Observant1 Don’t most TRP funds already trade NTF at Schwab?
    Yes, most TRP funds are NTF at Schwab.
    Being a new Schwab customer, I was unaware of this at the time.
    "T. Rowe Price compensates Schwab to market and promote its mutual funds; however,
    this compensation does not impact selection of any fund on the Select List.
    Schwab has a conflict because we receive compensation for marketing if you buy a fund from T. Rowe Price
    and we also benefit financially if you buy a Schwab-affiliated fund. This is not a recommendation."

    I screened for all T. Rowe Price mutual funds available at Schwab today.
    Results were filtered for NTF and TF funds.
    There were 135 NTF funds and 8 TF funds.
    T. Rowe Price Funds with Schwab Transaction Fees
    PBDIX - Up to $74.95
    PEXMX - Up to $74.95
    PIEQX - Up to $74.95
    POMIX - Up to $74.95
    PREIX - Up to $74.95
    PRTIX - Up to $74.95
    PRULX - Up to $74.95
    TLDTX - Up to $74.95
  • David Giroux Video

    have NEVER been able to find a shuggi interview, but was surprised to hear a few things here :
    - would not invest in tsla@95% shareprice cut. uncharacteristic hyberbole; made me quite happy. probably tied to general comments later on ceo\mgmt checklist.
    - no discount in price valution ratios for quality firms below largecap space.
    - failed to mention what % revenue&profit for his american companies is foreign, lessening need to add intnl equity. (yes, its picky)
    giroux makes me feel his multi-asset risk aware GARP approach can meet any challenge, and i have to guard against taking capital gains elsewhere to make him the family's #1 manager displacing primecap group.
  • Gold As Inflation Hedge
    Many had wishful thinking of 5-6 rate cuts this year. FED announced to hold rate flat until September’s meeting as inflation lingers. My bet is there will be no rate cut this year. The tariffs has yet taken full effect on the economy.
    Holding more gold would help to hedge inflation. Even better would be holding some gold miners funds.
  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)
    Moody's says watch out. Per Reuters:

    The rapid growth in retail investors, who put their money into private markets, could create liquidity and asset quality risks, Moody's Ratings warned on Tuesday, highlighting potential vulnerabilities within the private credit sector.
    /snip
    the shift is also raising concerns about transparency, liquidity, and underwriting standards, as firms race to deploy capital amid limited supply of high-quality assets.
    Let's see, limited supply, and yet everybody now wants to retail it. Hmmm.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold WCPNX in IRA and will use funds for upcoming 10-yr Treasury note auction.
    Still holding mine. 15.41% of portfolio.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Sven
    Schwab charges $10 for their auto investment program.
    Like Fidelity, a TF is charged only for purchases and not for sales.
    Vanguard Flagship clients were previously granted 25 free transactions per calendar year.
    Transactions included buying and selling TF mutual funds.
    I don't know if Vanguard still provides this benefit for its Flagship clients.
    I've derailed this thread and will cease making further comments...
    Schwab has the option to waive TFs on D&C funds upon request. My account is also set up to waive TFs on Vanguard and Fido funds.
  • The FED, administration policy, bonds and tariffs
    Caution, this may be triggering to those who feel an obligation to run defense for politicians. And will likely result in the usual comments that "experts are always wrong" from the peanut gallery.
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/06/05/own-gold-yen-and-german-bunds-wont-own-us-treasuries-at-all.html?
    This is a highly likely scenario IMO. And due to play out in 6 - 9 months. My plan is to jettison U.S. bonds before rates peak or inflation takes hold. MMF may go lower, but it is still better than losing money.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Sven
    Schwab charges $10 for their auto investment program.
    Like Fidelity, a TF is charged only for purchases and not for sales.
    Vanguard Flagship clients were previously granted 25 free transactions per calendar year.
    Transactions included buying and selling TF mutual funds.
    I don't know if Vanguard still provides this benefit for its Flagship clients.
    I've derailed this thread and will cease making further comments...