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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    I am surprised this hasn’t gotten more discussion on the boards today.
    Ditto. It came up on the Off-Topic board yesterday in a post by @Baseball_Fan - but I was the only one to make any remarks. - LINK
    No - I don’t think this is anywhere near the equivalent of Lehman. Don’t expect a repeat of ‘08 either. But depending how far the Fed decides to push its 2% inflation goal, it might get nasty. Aside from all this, the competition from higher interest rates - especially at the short end - is putting pressure on equities. And banks have to be struggling due to the inverted curve. Not to make too much of 1-day, but was surprised to see an intermediate term high yield fund I own break even yesterday. Expected worse.
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    El-Erian ***US banks can contain contagion risk and system stress stemming from the turmoil unleashed by SVB, says
    @elerianm
    But he warns that while the US banking system "is solid as a whole... that does not mean that every bank is"
    Think most large banks performed well w last previous stress test/check ups past few yrs
    Futures flat lined
    Everyone waiting unemployment reports this morning
    Think most index crossed 200mda yesterday critical support zones.... Perhaps bounced if morning reports extremely poor and feds consider 0.25 basis points, Macd stotastics also rolled over. If no bounce perhaps sp500 3820s next support levels closing in.
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    I am surprised this hasn’t gotten more discussion on the boards today. I can’t recall the last time I saw a component of the S@P 500 lose 60% in one trading session. Various banking indexes got hit hard today in the aftermath and a couple other west coast bank saw double digit losses. Of course SVB pales to the once size and importance of Lehman during the financial crisis. And preeminent banking analyst Mike Mayo said today with the major banks we could be much closer to a bottom. SVB continued downward in after hours trading impacting the stock futures which are looking ugly as I post this.
    On the bright side this could tempt the Fed to take its pedal off the gas. The employment report could also change things around in a hurry - or not.
  • Harris Associates sells remaining shares of Credit Suisse
    Call me skeptical, but it sounds like the rep just looked at the current literature, i.e. Artisan's page giving the backgrounds of its international value strategy managers and as you wrote, the current prospectus. Neither you nor the rep know whether what he was reading was correct, just that Artisan had put something on paper. And he didn't dig any further.
    Artisan may not have been able to tell you what Oakmark funds it claims that Samra managed, but I can, by referencing Artisan's old prospectuses. In the final prospectus (Aug 26, 2002) before ARTKX launched (Sept 23, 2002), Artisan names a OAKIX and OAKEX as funds Samra had managed.
    It looks like Artisan's legal beagles promptly went to work. The full annual Artisan prospectus put out two months later (Nov 1, 2022) dropped the claim that Samra had been an Oakmark portfolio manager by dint of his having worked in the investment team (as an analyst?).
    From this point on, Artisan's prospectuses said only that Samra had been a senior analyst on these funds. Then in 2012 Artisan stopped giving Samra's Oakmark history.
    A related curiosity is that Artisan didn't say anything about Samra having worked on OAKGX until it was about to launch its own global fund (2007). Then Samra's global fund history with Oakmark (as an analyst) apparently became worth mentioning.
    Prospectus chronology:
  • Inflation funds
    This suggestion by YBB is very wise indeed. Keep TIPS maturities <= 5 years. I frankly like the idea. So why go longer maturities? No two portfolios are the same. There are a 1000 ways to make potatoes in India. We must all solve for what works for us.
    Incidentally I have been listening to a lot of Myron Scholes lately on this podcast:
    https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/bio/myron-scholes-phd/
    This podcast is available online for free and I listen to it on my phone while walking. He speaks fast and there are many complex topics but he is dealing right in the heart of all the topics related to portfolio construction. Listening to it is humbling because there is just so much to it even for the sophisticated investors.
    None of this is supposed to be easy. But I do agree that YBB's suggestion is a step in the direction to make it easier.
  • Inflation funds
    If the idea is to keep up with inflation (CPI), shorter-term (=< 5 yrs) TIPS held to maturity would do that approximately. Then, roll them over and over. Make a ladder. Chart below shows CPI vs 2 common TIPS funds, ST and IT/LT; default timeframe is 1 yr but that can be changed.
    Using funds introduces rate and duration factors.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VTIP&compare=$$CPI,TIP&id=p06767927681
  • Inflation funds
    Stinky poopy day, today.

    We're just pricing in the 50 basis point FED hit next week. My crystal ball doesn't see anything good happening for a while. Don't fight the FED. Isn't that the motto?
    No argument here. Interesting guest just now on Bloomberg tv. From Quill Intelligence, out of Dallas. Danielle DeMartino Booth. She says, "YES! Don't fight the Fed, but that's exactly what the markets are doing." She sounds like she knows a thing or two. Nothing about what she said on camera felt "canned" to me.
  • Inflation funds
    SCHW down 12.76% today. Part of a big sell off in financials. Re +.50% rate increase. Let’s wait and see. This Fed “toes the line” about as well as a drunken sailor. (Admittedly, they’ve been slip-sliding into the gutter lately.)
  • Inflation funds
    Stinky poopy day, today.
    We're just pricing in the 50 basis point FED hit next week. My crystal ball doesn't see anything good happening for a while. Don't fight the FED. Isn't that the motto?
  • Inflation funds
    @sma - this is supposedly a free link
    So far as I can tell it, it in fact is.
    One thing to know is that when you get instant ‘Subscribe here / subscribe now’ popups or similar , just click x and close them; I had more than one, but when I got rid of them , carefully and patiently , there was the article in full , albeit pocked with house ads
    but I was able to read the entire thing
  • Playing small ball with the Non-Equity side of my portfolio
    @hank @Junkster et al
    UST yields..... 1, 3 and 6 month; as well as 1, 5, 10, and 30 year. The chart starts at October 25, 2022. This was the start reference for the BONDS thread. Call it intuition or whatever, but the pricing/yields caused me to look more closely. I don't know that the chart will help 'see' anything; but it is one I've used for some time, and is real time, if you choose to save the site. KEEP in mind, this is a 'yield', nor NAV/pricing chart.
    The Ukrainian war and the inflation pressures everywhere had started to pull the FEDS chain, although they can't do much about many aspects of inflation. And as been noted previous, how far are they going to go with rate increases to 'fix' what they don't like, NOT break the economy and have a 2% inflation rate. Glad I'm not piloting that ship.
    @Junkster noted too about the MMKT and CD rates. One may look at MMKT charts and see the steps in yield increases following the Fed Funds rates, at least with a chart view inside Fido for FZDXX. The chart from left to right looks like a side view of stair steps.
    I agree with @Junkster about 'clear mud'. There are so many moving parts that the FED and the private sectors are focusing upon, that the best I can do is try to do at this time is be close enough to seeing a meaningful change to cause a change in the portfolio. NOT a fun time, right now; although I'm not a short term trader, I still want to have most of the gains between the high or low of an investment.
    IG bonds had their 'protective' place today, yields down/prices up amidst the equity burn.
    Perhaps something of consequence from some of the words. In a funk today, so I'm out of thinking gas.
  • Playing small ball with the Non-Equity side of my portfolio
    If you are a baseball fan you know the term small ball. If not, it means trying to score runs without hitting a home run. I have been tracking money market and brokered CD’s at Schwab. In the last month the steady rise of MM fund rates has ground to a halt while brokered CD rates have moved up,,,even moving out from the shortest terms.
    MM SWVXX. FEB 8. 4.41%. Today 4.48%
    12 month CD. 4.75%. 5.25%
    24 month CD. 4.55%. 5.25%
    36 month CD. 4.25%. 5.00%
    My question for those with greater insights than I. Does this relative increase in intermediate term and a flattening of the shortest term(Money Market) rates have any meaning going forward?
    The flattening in money market funds is normal because they are limited by the Fed funds rate. There was a 25 basis point increase in Fed fund on February 1. At that time your fund was yielding 4.27. So you would expect a rise close to 25 basis points after the Fed funds increase and that is pretty much what we have had - a 21 basis point rise to 4.48. It could still rise to around 4.49 to 4.50 before the next Fed funds rate increase in two weeks. Then, like before there will be a rapid one week to 10 day increase of close to 25 points or 50 points in your money market depending on which of those two rates increases the Fed decides upon.
    As for why the CD rates have risen further that is based on what has transpired since the shocking January employment report on February 3 which came two days after the last Fed meeting and rate increase, Expectations of even more and longer Fed rate hikes. Hence longer rates have soared since February 3 resulting in higher CD rates. You can bet if tomorrow’s monthly employment report is the reverse, longer rates will fall and those high CD rates will no longer be available. Or if it is again another upside shock in employment even higher CD rates in the future and more talk of a terminal 6%+ Fed fund rates down the road.
    Clear as mud right?
  • Playing small ball with the Non-Equity side of my portfolio
    Putting @Larry aside … :)
    I’d like to chime in that we’re living through a very abnormal period of interest rates. And (not unlike black holes in space) this abnormality tends to distort everything else associated with it.
    In a “normal” healthy economy, longer term interest rates would be higher than short term rates. That’s because investors are taking a lot more risk locking up money in a 10, 20 or 30-year bond than they are in buying a 1-year CD. Think about the last time you took out a mortgage. Weren’t the rates for a 30 year mortgage higher than those for a 10 or 15 year one? That’s how it’s supposed to work. However, due to some very unusual circumstances, rates across the curve are highly distorted now with 1-year notes paying a higher rate than a 10-year treasury bond. I think we can be fairly certain that this “upside down” rate structure won’t last indefinitely.
    As alluded to, I’m probably unusual in my approach - especially at an advanced age - because I don’t carry much cash. The bond funds I own are intended more to balance out a portfolio than to yield anything. @catch22 studies this a lot and may want to weigh in. Maybe he could give a short snap-shot of the current highly inverted yield curve as it affects bonds at different maturities … But you can be certain this can’t go on forever. And so much depends on things like stock valuations, inflation, recession, Fed policies - and even other global currencies and central banks that it’s a real puzzle. The “experts” I think are as confounded as any of us!
  • Advisers love bonds, cash and value stocks, shun growth and gold - BofA survey
    @hank and @Old_Joe - but did you copy and paste the non-working link? Who does that? Anyway try this LINK and maybe....
    FWIW in his original post the address shown was highlighted and a simple click should have taken one to the article. I don't know what he's done to it since because it is no longer highlighted. Maybe it's just my Mac messing with me.
  • MS Mike Wilson Flipping
    It will be interesting to see over the next days and weeks. If I understood Mike Wilson, key resistance on the S&P 500 is at 4,150 and if the bear market rally is to continue, it will need a weaker dollar and lower yield on the 10-year Treasury.
  • Playing small ball with the Non-Equity side of my portfolio
    BTW, fed fund rate is the overnight rate for banks to borrow from each other. Discount rate is the rate at which troubled banks may borrow from the Fed Discount Window (looks like it was shut for crypto-friendly Silvergate/SI that is shutting down and liquidating - probably a buyer couldn't be found either). Reserve rate is that paid by the Fed to banks just to park their excess reserves at the Fed.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/158/fomc-statements-6-7-weeks?page=2&scrollTo=918
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/8/23
    For the week ending on 3/8/23, bearish remained the top sentiment (41.7%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (24.8%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (33.4%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -16.9% (very low). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed (tough talk by Powell); dollar; cryptos (Silverbank/SI to shutdown); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (54+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds up, oil down, gold down, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/966
  • Playing small ball with the Non-Equity side of my portfolio
    Not trying to change the topic. Treasury bill and notes are also competitive to broker CDs. They are good vehicles to build ladders.
    As of 3/8/23, 6 months yield 5.34%,12 months yield 5.25% and 2 years yield 5.05%.
    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202303
    Treasuries are highly liquid that can be sold in open market before reaching maturity.