When I was looking to buy my first house, mortgage rates were 16%.
Folks who had 6% mortgages were in clover. Banks were offering them CASH to refinance at higher rates. A guy in my department said his bank told him he HAD to refinance.
I bought using a land contract at 11%, not realizing the risks.
(I can also remember when gas was 25.9, and a Lotus Europa was $7,000.)

It’s odd because I often hear from the usual pundits that any attempts to tax people or regulate industry are socialist and anti-American, but I can’t think of anything quite so anti-American on the right wing as crypto. Its existence is an attempt to undermine and circumvent the U.S. dollar, and what could be more American than our sawbucks? Our currency is arguably the most powerful representation of America worldwide, and if the dollar fails as the world reserve currency it doesn’t bode well for us as a superpower.
Perhaps that is the actual value of crypto as an investment— it represents a belief and perhaps even a hope that America will fail. I don’t think it’s an accident by the way that Russia has become intensely interested in crypto. It is a nation state and currency weapon of mass destruction, like investing in a missile pointed at the dollar. The problem with even that thesis is America has ample financial and legal means to defend itself against crypto. One of them is interest rates. A lot of investors want dollars now so they can buy T-bills, CDs and money markets yielding almost 5%. You get 0% on your crypto investment, and any entity issuing yield-paying debt on crypto would be of dubious credit quality versus the government which has taxing authority to pay its bills, the financial terrorists in Congress notwithstanding.
Then there are the legal defenses. As Yogibearbull rightly pointed out, it wouldn’t be too hard for regulators to clamp down on crypto for attempting to muscle in on the dollar. Moreover, if blockchain technology is the most interesting and valuable aspect of crypto—and I believe it is—it wouldn’t be too hard to use that technology for our existing all-American much beloved dollar.

*** Bonds of most flavors received a face slap again this week, although many bond sectors were positive on FRIDAY, easing some of the losses. I'm still inclined towards IG bonds for the longer term, being year(s) not months; when the FED rates increases begin to stop and move downward. Duration right now is important for we investors, as the yield's for the short end are 'high'; as noted in the yield curve notations at MFO. At some point, when the economy finds a defined direction; longer duration will find a path. I keep watching for rotations with yields/pricing, as I lean more towards attempting to find the profit from pricing; but right now I'm happy with the +4% yields of a MMKT. This was not the case in April, 2022.

Inflation still persists while consumer spending is healthy. The street now is expecting 3 more 25 bps rate hikes this year. All my core bond funds took a sizable hit last week. Noted that the 2 yr and 10 yr T notes are moving in recent weeks that contributed to lower bond prices. This week we are buying T bills instead as they yield close to 5%.
Rotation from larger caps to smaller ones, especially value funds net good gain this year. Not so sure with oversea markets as the conflicts in Ukraine and China continue.

Anything is dangerous in the wrong (or uninformed) hands.
In crypto's case, IMO it's just another vehicle to invest in. I would trust Bitcoin or Etherium versus any number of 's--tcoins' out there as something that might be fun to invest/trade/speculate in. (Heck, I toyed with the idea of rolling my own coin as a lark once.) That said, don't get me started on 'NFTs' -- which truly are horsesh--t ideas that if you buy them, you deserve to lose all your shirts on.
Crypto's past year reminds me of the housing crisis - bubble, mania, things only go up, you can't lose, tons of hideous corporate sponsorships, even worse counterparty risks, black-box systems, etc, etc. But of course, retail investors during the pandemic with extra cash in a ZIRP climate wanted yield, 'needed' something to do, and they speculated hard w/o thinking things through.
And then there's the 'tech-bro' arrogance factor. I mean, how the heck do you run a billion-dollar crypto exchange/brokerage using QuickBooks as your accounting software? smh....
I went into crypto viewing it akin to L3 debt - it was money that if I lost it all, I could still sleep that night. I made some nice profits yield farming, but punched out in April last year when my investing gizzard got an often-accurate queasy feeling. So thankfully, I didn't lose anything. But then again, I did my homework and knew what I was getting into ... how many people throw money into the markets (stocks, bonds, futs, options, crypto, etc) not knowing anyhting except that it MIGHT make them richer?
In terms of crypto, I'm reminded of this early part of the 'The Big Short' when Steve Carrell's team is researching if there's a housing bubble -- and especially the stripper conversation he has, which starts ~3:50: (yes, the scene in this video link is safe-for-viewing.)

While there are several ways to achieve absolute-return strategies, NOPE uses long-short strategies as noted in the Yahoo Finance Profile before, and in its prospectus below. Noble-Impact is a subadvisor under Toroso, so the next news may be that the subadvisor is fired, and after a few weeks, the ETF is shut - my guesses without any inside knowledge.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1742912/000138713122009588/nope-497k_090722.htm
"Principal Investment Strategies
The Fund is an actively-managed exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) that seeks to achieve its investment objective by purchasing long positions in securities expected to increase in price and/or taking short positions in securities expected to decline in price. The Fund will generally have net exposure ranging from 100% short to 150% long. When the value of the Fund’s outstanding short positions is equal to the Fund’s net assets, the Fund is 100% short. The Fund’s net exposure at any time is the total of the Fund’s percentage long holdings (including leverage) less the percentage of its short holdings. For example, if the Fund’s long holdings totaled 60% and its short holdings totaled 40%, the Fund’s net exposure would be 20% (60%-40%)."
Among the risks mentioned,
"Principal Investment Risks
...
New Sub-Adviser Risk. The Sub-Adviser is a newly formed entity and has no experience with managing an exchange-traded fund, which may limit the Sub-Adviser’s effectiveness...."
A search on "benchmark" showed no mention at all in the prospectus. Conservative absolute-return strategies mention risk-free rate + some spread as the goal/benchmark although those may be missed too.

I have maintained that strategies such as absolute-return, long-short (with tilt) and market-neutral (50-50 L-S) sound appealing, but the manager(s) can make mistakes twice, on the long side AND on the short side. Then, it is like candle burning from the both ends.
Looking at the chart of this new ETF (9/28/22- ), it had a spectacular rise in December (when SP500 fell) and a terrible crash YTD when SP500 rose. So, I would say that it bet net short and lost big by overstaying with that bet.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NOPE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24793772873
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOPE/profile?p=NOPE

Related Twitter exchange (it should be open),
https://twitter.com/syouth1/status/1627288210148655105

The article singles VEDTX out for having a large cap gains distribution. Modest cap gains distributions are not all that unusual. Here's a piece on Vanguard's 2012 ETF distributions, reporting that all but one of Vanguard's bond ETFs distributed cap gains that year.
https://www.etf.com/sections/features/15419-vanguard-sets-cap-gains-on-12-bond-etfs-.html
It goes on to describe conditions in 2012 that led to bond ETF distributions, viz. "a post-crisis environment that has seen investors pile into fixed income in one-way traffic that has limited many managers’ ability to offset cap gains through sales of available low-cost-basis securities at the portfolio level." A storm perhaps, but apparently not, according to the M* piece you linked to, a perfect storm ("Such events have not occurred since [2009].")
The 2012 "imperfect" storm affected pure bond ETFs as well as Vanguard's hybrids.
Most recently, even Vanguard's broadest based bond fund, BND, had cap gains distributions in 2021 (Q2 and Q4) and 2022 (Q2).
https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/quote/dashboard/distributions-expenses?symbol=BND
Or take BNDX. In 2021, it had not only long term gains but short term gains.
https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=49817
https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/quote/dashboard/distributions-expenses?symbol=BNDX

@Old_Joe … I was ”living large” in those days. Paisley vinyl top and all. Always thought you to be the more practical type. :)
Image / Funny - that $2,800 car brand new now sells for $19,900 used. Damn. Should have held on to it.

" In 1970 I walked away with a new Plymouth Fury for $2800."
@hank- last of the big spenders! In 1970 we bought our very first new car- a Plymouth Valiant, for an even $2000. It was blue.

So disgust by Parker in today’s age. The $1.5 million fine is way too small for labor violations. Is that considered human trafficking?

I also agree that if the Fed were to make a straight dash for 2% the economy would really tank. I'm hoping that they will talk 2% but actually settle for maybe 3 or 3.5% and declare victory. The bright side of that for the Fed is that it stores up more gunpowder to use in the next cycle of recession. They aren't stupid... not by a long shot.

Gibson Smith is bullish on the overall bond market:
"Thanks to the significant repricing of yields and risk assets in 2022, the bond market has returned to yield levels of 5%, 6%, 7%. The market is set up for potentially good returns over the next 12 to 24 months. We could see high-single digit, if not low-double digit-type returns across the board in fixed income if things play out as we anticipate in 2023."

One year rankings¹ are of little value.
Out of 49 fund families, Vanguard was ranked 21st (43rd in 2021)
while T. Rowe Price was ranked 36th (13th in 2021) in 2022.
The methodology used for Barron's annual Fund Families feature should be questioned
due to large annual rating changes and eligibility requirements².
¹ 5-Yr and 10-Yr rankings are also included.
² Only 49 asset managers out of the 854 in Lipper’s database met the criteria for 2022.

...And yet, I still want to stay Stateside--- mostly. Every time I go foreign, I get burned. I like my ADR in Norsk Hydro. And about my erstwhile favorite, CIBC bank in Canada: once AGAIN, they're in legal trouble. The bank just had to settle this matter:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cibc-settles-cerberus-matter-220000945.html?.tsrc=fin-srch
"Flood of liquidity in Asia and Europe?" Huh? The G7 are all raising rates to fight inflation, no? Yes, Lizanne Saunders is great. I think Feeney is sensible. Clements is a one-note samba.

Packers Sanitation Services had children doing Blackstone's dirty work:
https://nbcnews.com/news/us-news/feds-find-100-children-cleaning-slaughterhouses-pssi-rcna71171

Federal officials say more than 100 children worked in dangerous jobs for slaughterhouse cleaning firm....The Labor Department says the children who were working overnight shifts used “caustic chemicals to clean razor-sharp saws.”

Packers was acquired by Blackstone in 2018. The company was just fined only $1.5 million by the DOL for having 102 children as young as 13 working hazardous overnight jobs cleaning slaughterhouses in eight states. This in my view makes such fines just a cost of doing business. BlackStone's stock is already up 27% year-to-date, despite this announcement. Meanwhile, workers in general at the slaughterhouses have said conditions have been unsafe since Blackstone acquired it:
https://pestakeholder.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Packers-Sanitation-Blackstone-Leonard-Green-PESP-March-2022.pdf

• In July 2021, the US Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) cited PackersSanitation Services Inc, and three other companies in connection with a nitrogen leak that tragically caused the deaths of six workers and injured almost a dozen others at a Georgia poultry processing plant.
• OSHA’s 2021 investigation found 17 serious and two repeat violations by Packers at the plant.
• Packers Sanitation Solutions Inc. has been acquired by four different private equity firms since 2007.
• Blackstone and Leonard Green/ AlpInvest extracted hundreds of millions of dollars from PSSI through
transactions known as dividend recapitalizations, in which the private equity firms added debt to Packers
Sanitation’s balance sheet in order to collect dividends for themselves.
• According to a 2017 report by the National Employment Law Project (NELP) looking at OSHA severe injury data, PSSI stood out as a particularly dangerous workplace with one of the highest numbers of serious injury reports compared to its relatively small number of employees.

Again, the fact that the stock is up strongly this year indicates Wall Street doesn't care.

我能说什么 ... Wǒ néng shuō shénme (Wah nung sscho shen ma) ... What can I say.?!
'What can I say?
--- Indicating that nothing that could be said would add to or improve the situation.
--- Something you say when you don't have any other good response to what someone says.
--- A phrase used to emphasize the fact that one is unable to explain, excuse, or clarify something any further.
I had the 'opportunity' to live in Taiwan for two years. A busy work period; but I did attempt to study some Mandarin language; to the point of learning common phrases and words, as others may when traveling. So, the reference to the phrase; also found of use in Chinese, too.
@hank placed a quote from Bloomberg last week, and I also don't recall who stated it there: 'If your're not confused, you're not paying attention.' The original statement is placed to Tom Peters, a long time author of business modeling books. The quote is from his book, 'Thriving on Chaos: Handbook for a Management Revolution'. I still have his early work, 'In Search of Excellence' book.
Thriving on Chaos seems to be a current summation, of follow the money, in this current investing environment.
***** As to, 'What can I say': Those here who follow 'Wall St. Week' and/or 'Real Yield' should be able to absorb a decent overview of the market week. There are market pieces, here and there; that may not be covered. But, I remain limited to add more many times. I continue to discover some of the 'other'. In light of this, being redundant becomes an issue with writing. I will attempt to add something of consequence, every week, aside for the data list.
--- Tuesday, CPI: Inflation rose in January by 0.5% following a 0.1% increase in December.
The CPI was up 6.4% from the same period in 2022. Both numbers were higher than expected.
Across-the-board increases in shelter, food and energy boosted the index after inflation had shown signs of receding in recent months.
--- Wednesday, Retail sales at 2 year high. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. But even accounting for the technical distortions, Americans are still spending. I don't find any slack in folks going to the restaurants in our area; as they are quite busy all days of the weeks.
--- Thursday, PPI (Producer Price Index) at +.7% from December. Estimate was +.4%. Jobless claims down...194,000 v 200,000 estimate. I suspect the recent layoffs are not reported by those who could claim....yet; if they received a severance payment package, etc., or they have immediate employment elsewhere.
--- Snippet: Reported that credit card debt hit $1 Trillion. Reporting agencies suggest card holders are paying off other debt or other necessary payments with cards. and not with a checking/savings account.
--- U.S.$ UP +.24% for the week, +.49% YTD
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference.
*** Bonds of most flavors received a face slap again this week, although many bond sectors were positive on FRIDAY, easing some of the losses. I'm still inclined towards IG bonds for the longer term, being year(s) not months; when the FED rates increases begin to stop and move downward. Duration right now is important for we investors, as the yield's for the short end are 'high'; as noted in the yield curve notations at MFO. At some point, when the economy finds a defined direction; longer duration will find a path. I keep watching for rotations with yields/pricing, as I lean more towards attempting to find the profit from pricing; but right now I'm happy with the +4% yields of a MMKT. This was not the case in April, 2022.
Lastly, one may expect the FED to go back to the well of high rates, eh???; as they may not be pleased with all of the data points they gather.
A good day to you.....
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, Febuary 13 - Febuary 17, 2023
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds rate and ended the week at 4.47% . The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.20%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time.
--- AGG = -.43% / +1.29% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.12% / +1.13% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.07% / +.2% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.35% / +.2% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -.57% / +.87% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -.21% / +.95% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = -.04% / +.49% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = -.1% / +.42% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -.32% / +2.85% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -1% / +3.1% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -1.4% / +4.2% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -1.47 / +4.3% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +2.2% / -5.6% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -3.5% / +6.2% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -.51% / +1.35% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = -.675% / +1.84% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = -.38% / +3.3% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = -.29% / +1.75% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = -1.5 %/+1.95% (VanEck HY Muni
--- MUB = -1.18% /+.56 (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -.57%/+1.27% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +.12% / +6.27% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = +.03% / +8.36% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.47% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch

It's my sense -- or perhaps it's only a hope -- the Fed will unofficially tolerate a VERY long runway towards reaching their 2% goal. (And, if that goal proves to be an elusive target they can eventually de-emphasize the importance of reaching it.) Why would a 3% to 4% inflation rate be a big problem anyway?
2% Inflation

REVIEW. After doing well in FY 2021 (07/2020-06/2021), university ENDOWMENTS did poorly in FY 2022 (07/2021-06/2022) (but now is 02/2023! It takes that much tome to collect data from 678 institutions). Average allocations of 30% alternatives (some not marked to market, a concern) and 28% US equity meant that they outperformed the SP500. Gifts/donations remained strong.
FUNDS. Best Fund Families are ranked based on performance in 8 fund categories and are asset-weighted.
For 2022: 1-DFA, 2-Victory, 3-Neuberger Berman, 4-Capital Group/AF, 5-JPM,…, 18-Franklin Templeton,…, 21-Vanguard,…, 23-Pimco,…, 30-Fidelity, 31-Nuveen/TIAA,…, 36-Price.
For 5 Years: 1-Fidelity, 2-MFS, 3-Putnam, 4-Mainstay, 5-Amundi US, 6-Pimco,…, 10-Neuberger Berman,…, 13-Capital Group/AF,. 14-JPM,…, 17-DFA, 18-Vanguard,…, 21-Price,…, 26-Victory, 30-Nuveen/TIAA,…, 41-Franklin Templeton.
10-year rankings and rankings within the fund categories are also provided. (Too much detail to be included here, so access Barron’s online, at newsstand, or at local library)
INCOME INVESTING. Be wary of higher-yielding EM debt, whether dollar-denominated (EMB) or in local currencies (EBND, LEMB). Many EM countries are at different stages of the rate cycle, and dollar can also have a significant impact.
FUNDS. Gibson Smith, Smith Capital (core-plus SMTRX, etc); formerly, Janus Hendersen FI-CIO (JABAX, etc). After a disastrous 2022, BONDS in 2023 are the most attractive in a decade and may remain so for 12-24 months. Money is flowing into bond funds. The FED is near the tail end of its monetary tightening (rate hikes, QT). Remember that slowing economy or recessions are good for the bond market (true for investment-grade bonds, but not for spread products, HY, EMs, etc). He doesn’t like short-term bonds – yes, yields are attractive, but for how long? He likes IT/LT bonds and a BARBELL approach. Bond volatility will remain (Treasury MOVE 110.11). For corporates, he looks at company fundamentals first, and then invest in its bonds, investment-grade or HY. He also likes MBS and CMOs.
(EXTRA) FUNDS. ETFs that are benefiting from higher rates include DIVO, DGRW, GCOW, LVHI, ROUS, TBF (short Treasuries).
https://www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/403/barron-february-20-2023-2

Legendary Fed Chairman Paul Volcker was highly critical of the Fed’s policy of targeting 2% inflation, saying he saw “no theoretical justification” for it and that if successful, it “would mean the price level doubles in little more than a generation.” In this EXTRA exclusive, Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida defends the 2% solution.