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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The view today (stinky) from 30,000 feet
    @crash. Take a look at Charlie Garcia at market watch today and a listen to the recent Thoughtful Money episode with Stephanie Pomboy. Similar theme. I don’t know if the markets can handle chaos and insanity at the top for much longer. The best near term temporary solution would be a 25 amendment. Can we count on professional repugnants to do what is right for the country? Hardly.
  • The view today (stinky) from 30,000 feet
    I see today's drastic moves--- both up and then down---as an instance in the manufactured pattern of excess volatility in the Markets brought on by an Orange regime which is like a child put in charge of constructing a skyscraper. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
  • December Rate Cut in Doubt as Fed Fault Lines Deepen, Minutes Show
    Jobs report:
    “These numbers are a snapshot from two months ago and they don’t reflect where we stand now in November.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/20/jobs-report-september-2025.html
  • Structural Goods Recession
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/20/trump-tariffs-trade-china-import-decline-freight-recession.html
    •Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, the nation’s second-busiest port after Los Angeles, says the record year in freight container volume triggered by President Trump’s tariffs has given way to an accelerating decline in Chinese imports.
    •Real-time container tracking data shows ocean freight bound for the U.S. is decreasing and volumes throughout the supply chain are under pressure. “This isn’t just a seasonal dip or temporary correction,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of freight data tracker Vizion. “This is a structural goods recession.
    •The latest U.S. Census trade data, released on Wednesday after a long delay caused by the government shutdown, showed a significant import decline.
    It seems that the front-loading of imports is over. The consequences of tariffs are stacking up.
    “We are now forecasting nearly a 16.6 percent year-over-year decline for U.S. imports in December, after a 12% decline in Q3,” said Ben Tracy, vice president of strategic business development at real-time container tracking platform, Vizion. “There is no bounce back in sight,” Tracy said.
  • Sentiment & market Indicators, 11/19/25
    VIX has crept up to 25!
    Nice. I have a bit in TAIL. Up 1% at the moment. Wow. Did the markets turn on a dime today. We’ll see if it lasts.
  • How Bad Is Finance’s Cockroach Problem? We Are About to Find Out.
    I hope this article is relevant to the discussion. I’m only familiar with the kind of cockroaches that invaded a once inviting Marathon Fla. hotel a decade ago. Haven’t returned since.
    Sorry. The article surfaced in Chinese. Trying to locate better source.
    When all else fails, pull up AI
    A portfolio of private credit loans managed by BlackRock Inc. has failed key performance tests, specifically the over-collateralization (OC) test, in November 2025, leading to the firm waiving some management fees—a rare occurrence in the credit market. This failure, tied to deteriorating performance of underlying loans, particularly those linked to the bankrupt home improvement company Renovo, has raised concerns about the stability of the private credit market.
    OC Test Failure and Fee Waiver: In October 2025, the portfolio's value declined below the threshold required by the OC test, indicating that the value of the underlying loan assets was insufficient to cover the most senior tranches of the CLO. As a result, BlackRock has waived a portion of its management fees, a significant move in the credit industry.
    Underlying Causes: The failure is attributed to poor performance of specific investments, including a $150 million private loan to Renovo Home Partners, which BlackRock had previously valued at 100 cents on the dollar but later assessed as worthless. The portfolio's struggles are part of a broader trend of rising defaults in the private credit sector.
    Market Implications: This event is one of several recent signs of stress in the private credit market, which has seen a surge in defaults and a recent halt to a major fund merger by Blue Owl Capital. The incident underscores growing concerns about the credit quality of assets in this rapidly expanding segment.
    BlackRock's Response: While BlackRock has not provided a public statement, the firm reportedly took corrective actions, such as redirecting interest income from riskier tranches to safer ones, to address the test failure. The company has described the situation as a one-off event.

    (Above Quotation - Credit to BING’s AI robot.)
    Story first reported on Bloomberg Media today. I’m gifting the link below, but some have expressed concerns about having to jump through hoops and disable tracking apps with this source. I certainly enjoy reading Bloomberg as a quick overview of daily investment news, although often lacking in depth.
    Bloomberg
  • vanguard 351 exchange
    having read a bit more, it seems all the heavy administrative lifting is done by the companies that provide the etf. it is a relative minor issue whether vanguard will custody the etf . am seeing lower entry requirements than in 2024.
    my impression of following the alphaarchitect blog for ~5 years is they are a high integrity firm.
    curious if anyone on mfo has executed this.
  • In the A.I. Race, Chinese Talent Still Drives American Research
    My son attended a Big 10 university with a large Chinese student population. When most of the American kids were falling down drunk, the Chinese students were studying, mainly STEM. Those students also pay full tuition. Many Chinese students come from well-off families too. They have had "prep" school educations and speak the language.
    Still imagine how hard it is to excel in STEM - in a second language.
    Meanwhile: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/09/09/nations-report-card-student-low-scores/86054902007/
  • Sentiment & market Indicators, 11/19/25
    SENTIMENT & MARKET INDICATORS, 11/19/25
    AAII Bull-Bear Spread -11.0% (below average)
    CNN Fear & Greed Index 11 (extreme fear)
    NYSE %Above 50-dMA 34.41% (negative)
    SP500 %Above 50-dMA 36.40% (negative)
    These are contrarian indicators.
    INVESTOR CONCERNS: Budget, debt, tariffs, inflation, jobs, Fed, dollar, recession, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (194+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+27 weeks; fragile peace).
    For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up.
    It will take time to fully restart US Government. Losses for hourly federal workers are permanent. Late gov reports: jobs, Nov 20 (today); PPI, Nov 25. There are more exceptions to tariffs on food items & more trade deals are coming.
    #AAII #CNN #Sentiment
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2308/thread
  • Gina Raimondo on Trump tariffs
    "Former US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to outlive his administration, sustained by political fears that removing protectionist barriers will alienate workers who fear losing their jobs to off-shoring and AI."
    I could not disagree more.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-19/raimondo-says-trump-s-tariffs-hard-to-remove-for-next-president?srnd=homepage-americas
  • Investing In AI Technology
    Thanks everyone - good information. Where can one hid from this AI-mania ? Money market fund?
    Edits after NVIDIA reported great sale number yesterday after the market close, one would expect the market to rally. It petered out by noon, and S&P 500 is down over 1%, NASDAZ down, 1.5%, and DJIA down 0.4%. All AI-related stocks are down.
  • December Rate Cut in Doubt as Fed Fault Lines Deepen, Minutes Show
    CME group says there is 33% probability that a 25 bps rate cut will take place. Many things can happen between now and December FOMC meeting. If labor market worsen in the busy holiday season, that is a bad sign. At the same time, inflation is increasing due to the tariffs.
    https://cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
    Edit:. The probability has increased to 71% of a 25 bps rate cut. The reported labor market looks weak and the unemployment rate is still at 4.4%.
  • A panel convened by Trump rejects his idea to abolish FEMA.
    Well, that was the House Transportation and Infrastructure committee. I believe that such large government committees typically have a number of smaller subcommittees, each assigned to specific areas of interest. After a subcommittee agrees on a proposal, it's presented to the entire committee for approval (or not).
    And with a 57-3 majority, they seem to have gotten their act together. Remarkable, in this day and age.
  • A panel convened by Trump rejects his idea to abolish FEMA.
    57-3. Now THAT is what you call an absurdly unwieldy committee. How many humps does that camel have?
  • Texas Capital Texas Small Cap Equity Index ETF will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1972459/000158064225007359/txss_497.htm
    497 1 txss_497.htm 497
    TEXAS CAPITAL FUNDS TRUST
    Texas Capital Texas Small Cap Equity Index ETF
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated November 19, 2025 to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus,
    and Statement of Additional Information, as supplemented to date
    This Supplement contains new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) and should be read in conjunction with the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI. Capitalized terms and certain other terms used in this Supplement, unless otherwise defined in this Supplement, have the meanings assigned to them in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and/or SAI.
    On November 12, 2025, the Board of Trustees of Texas Capital Funds Trust (the “Board”) determined that closing and liquidating the Fund were in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders, and approved a Plan of Liquidation to conduct an orderly liquidation of the Fund to occur on or about December 15, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
    The Fund will be closed to new investors and will no longer accept creation orders from Authorized Participants after the close of business on December 8, 2025 (the “Closing Date”). This is also expected to be the last day of trading of the Fund’s shares on the NASDAQ Stock Market, LLC (the “Exchange”). Shareholders may sell their holdings in the Fund on the Exchange until market close on the Closing Date and customary brokerage charges may apply to these transactions. Authorized Participants may redeem baskets of shares of the Fund through the Closing Date.
    From the Closing Date through the Liquidation Date, shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Fund’s shares during this time period. It is anticipated that the Fund’s portfolio will be positioned into cash, cash equivalents, or other liquid assets on or prior to the Liquidation Date. This process will result in the Fund increasing its cash holdings and, as a consequence, not pursuing its investment objective.
    The Fund is expected to cease operations, liquidate its assets, and distribute the liquidation proceeds to shareholders on or about Liquidation Date.
    Shareholders who remain invested in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will automatically receive cash at the net asset value of their shares as of that date, which will include any capital gains and dividends as of such date. The liquidating cash distribution to shareholders will be treated as payment in exchange for their shares. The liquidation of the Fund’s shares may be treated as a taxable event. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. Once the distributions are complete, the Fund will terminate.
    For further information, please contact the Fund toll-free at (844) TCB-ETFs.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    1
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Level5 : Fed Farm Cr Bk agency bonds (2-yr with 1-yr call protected) what rate are they running at, please.
  • Anyone talk investments with friends?
    Winning, as it relates to investing, means having the financial means to achieve your goals.
    Beating some arbitrary benchmark is irrelevant.

    To some extent the goals can be modified as return dictates: Less expensive motor vehicles, shorter vacations, $25 scotch instead of $50. 2 - 3 dolls instead of 10.
    And for some, making 2% less than the next fella and not avoiding ulcers is a fine trade off.