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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Invesco Developing Markets Fund reopens to new investors
    https://www.invesco.com/us-rest/contentdetail?contentId=067257c5-8d2f-41c8-9293-c5ae4a3faf66&dnsName=us&title=invesco-developing-markets-fund-to-reopen
    or
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/826644/000119312523037648/d458668d497.htm
    SUPPLEMENT DATED FEBRUARY 14, 2023 TO THE
    CURRENT STATUTORY PROSPECTUS FOR:
    Invesco Developing Markets Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    This supplement amends the Statutory Prospectus of the above referenced Fund and is in addition to any other supplement(s), unless otherwise specified. You should read this supplement in conjunction with the Statutory Prospectus, as supplemented, and retain it for future reference.
    Effective as of the open of business on February 28, 2023:
    The following sentence is deleted from the front cover: “The Fund has limited public sales of its shares to certain investors.”
    Additionally, the information appearing under the heading “Other Information – Limited Fund Offering” is deleted in its entirety.
  • CPI, 2/14/23
    I-Bonds use 6-mo change in unadjusted CPI for their May 1 & November 1 announcements. That is definitely collapsing on May 1.
    TIPS use monthly CPI changes with 2-mo lag. How is that looking now?
    I am definitely skipping I-Bonds, but I am still evaluating 5-yr TIPS.
  • What to do?
    + @larryB
    I can remember not to many years ago, all the comparison and clear winner from that comparison was CAPE over the S&P 500. It was the clear winner - until it wasn't. I'm sure many bought into CAPE high and sold when it faltered. The key is having the conviction to stay with one scheme over another. Value and dividend stocks will have their day, same as growth or tech or using the CAPE methodology. Isn't the S&P500 a collection of all those sub sets?
  • Tom Madell and Lynn Bolin articles
    Global hybrids are difficult to find. Two good ones are SGENX & TIBAX, both no-load/NTF at Fido & Schwab. TIBAX also has an unleveraged CEF cousin TBLD that can be bought anywhere.
    The cheaper TIBIX share class can be purchased (with a TF) in a Fidelity IRA with a $2500 min. It can be worth the fee if you're planning to hold the fund for a few years. And via Fidelity's automatic investment system, it should be possible to buy additional shares with just a $5 fee.
    Fidelity comparison of TIBIX and TIBAX
  • What to do?
    Some things can appear so obvious that they become difficult to explain, yet be so unclear to others. I watched an economics teacher struggle to explain something having to do with averages, I forget what. As a 3rd party observer, these different perspectives were visible to me. Perhaps what is happening here is like that and I'm not explaining things well.
    I wrote: there's a tendency for people to look at "what have you done for me lately" even when trying not to - sometimes it's baked into the numbers.
    Here's a paragraph from CBS News describing how "what have you done for me lately" is baked into M*'s ratings. On the surface, it looks like M* is biasing its ratings toward long term performance, because it weights 10 year performance at 50%, while weighting 5 year performance at 30%, and 3 year performance at just 20%. But something else is going on.
    Obviously, the past three years account for 30 percent of the past ten years, which means that they account for 15 percent of the overall rating (30 percent X 50 percent). They account for 18 percent of the five-year rating (60 percent X 30 percent); and 100 percent of the three-year rating. Sum them all up, and we find that the past three years account for 53 percent of a fund's overall long-term rating.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-right-and-whats-wrong-with-morningstar-fund-ratings/
    There's a similar problem in looking at good 1/3/5/10 year figures and concluding that performance is somewhat uniformly good, especially over longer terms. The final year's performance is influencing (I would say skewing) all the numbers. We saw this effect clearly (though with respect to bad, not good, performance) in figures published after March 2020. Suddenly good (and not so good) funds looked terrible, even long term.
    Now I'm not expecting another once in a century pandemic anytime soon, nor do I think that nothing has been done to make economies more robust. So I'm inclined to discount (but not ignore) 2020 figures to the extent that they distort averages.
  • What to do?
    >> what have you done lately
    ? SCHD longterm performance shows this is, again, a rather misleading way to put it.
    >> Had you looked at the same figures at another point in time,
    sure, cherrypick away
    You pick one trading day out of 2800+ and I'm the one cherry picking?
    I looked at the long term (read lifetime) performance of SCHD on every trading day since inception and found that on most of them, its long term performance was superior to that of FXAIX. At least by eyeballing it.
    The easiest way to see this is to plot the two over SCHD's lifetime, and note that there are long (multi-year) runs where FXAIX's cumulative performance exceeds that of SCHD:
    11/2/13 - 2/5/16 (2¼ years), 7/27/16 - 5/12/21 (4¾ years).
    Here's Portfolio Visualizer's graph. You won't get quite the same detail I'm providing (gory details below). The PV graph looks as though FXAIX led the whole way until five months ago. Though that's not far off from what happened.
    FXAIX outperformed SCHD for virtually its whole life until five months ago. Are those few recent months supposed to stand in for long term performance?
    When you talk about cherry picking, recognize that if one were to pick a date at random, much more likely than not, FXAIX would have outperformed SCHD to that point in time.
    >> that we can expect, or at least hope for, another huge year (relatively speaking) for SCHD in the future? One that will make up for its typical slightly underperforming years?
    and now you make it sound like SCHD is more this volatile / Heebnerlike instrument.
    I'm looking not at SCHD, but the difference in annual returns between the two funds. This has got little to do with volatility of either component, but of volatility of their correlation.
    If, for example, you take two share classes of the same, wildly volatile fund, differing only in ERs, then the volatility of the gap in performances will be zero.
    The difference in annual returns ranges in magnitude between a half percent (0.52%) and 4½ percent (4.59%) except for 2022, when the difference in performance is more than triple the next largest annual difference. In the "biz" we call that an outlier.
    Lewis linked to a couple of pieces that suggest an explanation for this outlier. Assuming you buy the reasoning, the question for you is whether you believe similar conditions (with similar results) will happen again.
    11/1/11 - 1/24/12 - SCHD leads
    1/25/12 - 5/15/12 - FXAIX leads
    5/16/12 - 5/18/12 - SCHD leads (ends on a Friday)
    5/21/12 - 5/23/12 - FXAIX leads
    5/24/12 - 5/25/12 - SCHD leads (ends on Friday, Mon holiday)
    5/29/12 - one day - FXAIX leads
    5/30/12 - 6/19/12 - SCHD leads
    6/20/12 - one day - FXAIX leads
    6/21/12 - 8/16/12 - SCHD leads
    8/17/12 - 3/20/13 - FXAIX leads
    3/21/13 - 8/13/13 - SCHD leads
    8/14/13 - 8/16/13 - FXAIX leads (ends on a Friday)
    8/19/13 - one day - SCHD leads
    8/20/13 - 9/18/13 - FXAIX leads
    9/19/13 - one day - SCHD leads
    9/20/13 - 11/5/13 - FXAIX leads
    11/6/13 - 11/12/13 - SCHD leads
    11/13/13 - one day - FXAIX leads
    11/14/13 - one day - SCHD leads
    11/15/13 - one day - FXAIX leads (ends on a Friday)
    11/18/13 - 11/20/13 - SCHD leads
    11/21/13 - 2/5/16 - FXAIX leads (ends on a Friday)
    2/8/16 - 2/9/16 - SCHD leads
    2/10/16 - one day - FXAIX leads
    2/11/16 - one day - SCHD leads
    2/12/16 - 6/23/16 - FXAIX leads
    6/24/16 - 6/28/16 - SCHD leads
    6/29/16 - one day - FXAIX leads
    6/30/16 - 7/11/16 - SCHD leads
    7/12/16 - one day - FXAIX leads
    7/13/16 - 7/15/16 - SCHD leads (ends on a Friday)
    7/18/16 - one day - FXAIX leads
    7/19/16 - 7/26/16 - SCHD leads
    7/27/16 - 5/12/21 - FXAIX leads
    5/13/21 - one day - SCHD leads
    5/14/21 - 4/25/22 - FXAIX leads
    4/26/22 - 4/27/22 - SCHD leads
    4/28/22 - 5/4/22 - FXAIX leads
    5/5/22 - 7/20/22 - SCHD leads
    7/21/22 - one day - FXAIX leads
    7/22/22 - tie, Friday
    7/25/22 - 7/27/22 - SCHD leads
    7/28/22 - 8/18/22 - FXAIX leads
    8/19/22 - 8/24/22 - SCHD leads
    8/25/22 - one day - FXAIX leads
    8/26/22 - 9/8/22 - SCHD leads
    9/9/22 - 9/15/22 - FXAIX leads
    9/16/22 - present - SCHD leads
  • What to do?
    Mama largest holders are:
    * fidelity 2015 tdf FFVFX (bulk of her holdings)
    *Dodge cox and balance
    *Fidelity contrafund FCNTX
    *tlt and shy
    *Lots Corp/ private Bond %large companies ytm ~5 6%, Ave ytm 5 YRS.
    Portfolio moves upward like turtle since xmas but did not loose much last yr (-12%), think 5 7% from all time high
    Capital preservations are keys. She is happy w fixed 3 5% annually returns
    For mine very aggressive 15% in tsla + growth stocks
    * 35% in sp500 (spy spxl)
    *30s% in mid caps + small caps ( vo vong Tna soxl tqqq )
    *10% in overseas etf indexes (yinn FXI veu)
    *15% in private Corp Bonds.
    Few % in speculative plays and btc ethe silver 3xgold etf tmf labu Tsll Fngu + smallcaps plays VRM nvta bbig, ~3% daily tradings (short term p&l was up 33% last wk but now only +13%)
    Use 12% of margin powers for CSP
    Lots leap call or monthly cover calls contracts for Tsla bros nvda snow Rivn amaz goog brk.b O. Sold lots bonds last 6 months cover csp and assignments
    Mine overall portfolio is 10% down from all time high since dca aggressively past 6 wks
    I am happy w yearly 5 7%% returns but hard to say
    Hope bottoms don't fall out under
    PLS do critique thankyou
  • What to do?
    You're proving my point - it's all about "what have you done lately".
    Had you looked at the same figures at another point in time, say on SCHD's 10 year anniversary (10/31/2021), SCHD's cumulative performance would have underwhelmed:
    10 year: 309.10% vs 348.91% (FXAIX)
    5 year: 118.00% vs. 137.75%
    3 year: 71.20% vs. 79.20%
    1 year: 44.08% vs. 42.89%
    The fairly recent outperformance should be obvious from my table showing SCHD outperforming FXAIX by a cumulative 20% over the three past calendar years (2020-2022).
    Do you give any consideration to "regression to the mean"? The same table shows FXAIX outperforming SCHD by as much as 10% cumulative in other three year periods. With actively managed funds, there's a lot that can change. But with index funds, a "true buy & hold type" is going to need more than a one year anomaly to "sell & trade":
    2023 YTD: 1.67% (SCHD) vs. 6.71% (FXAIX)
    2022: -3.23% vs. -18.13% <-- 15% spread
    2021: 29.87% vs. 28.69%
    2020: 15.08% vs. 18.40%
    2019: 27.28% vs. 31.47%
    What's the theory for buying SCHD? That any time the market goes down, SCHD will win big? Or that we can expect, or at least hope for, another huge year (relatively speaking) for SCHD in the future? One that will make up for its typical slightly underperforming years?
    At least we can dispense with the former idea - that SCHD outperforms in down markets.
    2018: -5.56% (SCHD), -4.40% (FXAIX)
    2015: -0.31% (SCHD) vs. 1.38% (FXAIX)
    interestingly, FXAIX/IVV is on the honor roll too, and not SCHD
    This is a good example of why I continue to urge people to understand numbers, not just quote them. Honor roll status is based on raw performance relative to category, i.e. top quintile over 1,3,5 year spans. Immediately we see one potential issue - these are funds in different categories.
    At least as important is the fact that FXIAX's performance is being compared with that of (only) other S&P 500 funds. With a 2 basis point ER, it's a sure bet that FXIAX will always be in the top quintile of its narrow category of peers. Instant honor roll.
    SCHD is in Lipper's Equity Income category - a broad category, and SCHD doesn't always come out in the top 20%.
    The fact that FXAIX is a LC Blend fund (M* terminology) while SCHD is LCV goes far to explaining the 2022 split in relative performance. Value simply had a once in a generation (relative) banner year: VVIAX lost 2.08%, while VFIAX lost 18.15%. This 2σ+ fluke is hardly suggestive of future outperformance.
    To reiterate, SCHD is a fine fund. But a better long term fund? I wouldn't place heavy bets on one style of investing - value or otherwise. Sure, use SCHD, but then counter balance it.
  • What to do?
    Over the long term they do slightly better than FXAIX
    Do they do any better, or are you just looking relative to a particular moment in time (i.e. now)? Comparing their three year rolling cumulative returns by calendar years (e.g. Jan 2019-Dec 2021), the figures (from M* charts) are:
         2020-2022  '19-'21	'18-'20	'17-'19	'16-'18	'15-'17	'14-'16	'13-'15	'12-'14	'11-'13
    FXAIX 24.75% 100.32% 48.80% 53.10% 30.38% 38.28% 29.02% 52.54% 74.51% 56.77%
    SCHD 44.56% 90.14% 38.51% 45.45% 32.84% 40.22% 29.53% 48.09% 65.32% 56.42%
    CDC 38.27% 78.90% 27.03% 30.48% 31.78% 38.76% - - - -
    Over its lifetime (July 1, 2014 through Feb 10, 2023), CDC has done slightly worse than FXAIX, returning a cumulative 138.04% vs FXAIX's 143.78%.
    More importantly, all the cumulative figures ending Dec 31, 2022 are significantly skewed by FXAIX's sizeable underperformance in 2022 relative to the other funds: -18.13% vs -3.23% (SCHD) or -7.76% (CDC). (FXAIX has done better so far this year.)
    I'm not knocking any of these funds, and I can certainly see the point in suggesting dividend oriented funds to someone who has been focused on cash returns. It's just that there's a tendency for people to look at "what have you done for me lately" even when trying not to - sometimes it's baked into the numbers.
    For true buy & hold types, the argument for SCHD over SP500 is clear: SCHD has nontrivially outperformed 10/5/3/1y. (A flip occurred 4mos ago.) For those who fancy themselves slightly more conservative or at least 'non-volatilist', a second argument for SCHD is clear. For preservation Lipper gives SCHD 5* and FXAIX/IVV 4*. MFOP gives Great Owl status to both (interestingly, FXAIX/IVV is on the honor roll too, and not SCHD) but shows SCHD's UI to be ~50%-75% of SP500, depending on time period.
  • M* Charts for TIAA/CREF VAs
    Update 2/12/23. New links for TIAA/CREF VA Charts
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/932/thread
    CREF VAs have classes R1 [highest ERs], R2, R3 [lowest ERs] since 4/1/15. Old single-class VAs had ERs similar to the new R2 class. TIAA has also populated the old/non-existing histories of newer classes with those for the older single-classes. TIAA T-REA remains a single class VA.
    Links for CREF VAs, R3 classes and T-REA.
    CREF Bond Market R3 QCBMIX
    CREF Equity Index R3 QCEQIX
    CREF Global Equity R3 QCGLIX
    CREF Growth R3 QCGRIX
    CREF ILB R3 QCILIX
    CREF Social Choice R3 QCSCIX
    CREF Stock R3 QCSTIX
    TIAA Real Estate Account (T-REA) QREARX
    The Q-symbols for CREF VA classes differ only in the 5th place: R1 has R, R2 has P, R3 has I. So, the charts for R1 and R2 classes can be created from the corresponding R3 class charts by simply adjusting the Q-symbols in the URL. See the following example for the CREF Stock.
    QCSTRX https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/QCSTRX/chart
    QCSTPX https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/QCSTPX/chart
    QCSTIX https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/QCSTIX/chart
    I have tested these links in M* LOGOFF mode too, so they should work for everybody.
  • Default Denialism is real

    I guess I could try switching to physical NYT and Washington Post but the amount of paper we would have to take to the landfill weekly is overwhelming
    It's not like the old days, when a Sunday paper could clock in at 12 pounds. These days it seems that I can fold the entire Sunday NYTimes.
    https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/heaviest-ever-newspaper
    With the rapid rise in print edition costs (about 25% cumulative over the past two years), I've trimmed back to just the (ever lighter) Sunday paper. It is delivered in two parts (Saturday for fill sections, Sunday for news), so I still get to touch a paper for the whole weekend.
  • Default Denialism is real

    2013 -48.83%
    2014 -15.39%
    2015 -23.14%
    There's a typo. It should be -47.83%.
  • Anybody know when the 2022 (December ‘22) Annual Report for DODBX will be available?
    Your cynicism is not unjustified, though the process of introducing streamlined reports was a bit more neutral than that.
    From the SEC proposal:
    We request comment on the proposed scope of disclosure for the annual report, including the following: ...
    4. A fund may have multiple share classes with differing fee structures. Should these multi-class funds be permitted to reflect only one or a subset of classes, rather than all share classes in a shareholder report so long as a fund produces a shareholder report that relates to each share class? Would such an approach reduce the complexity of the disclosure and provide more-tailored information that is specific to a shareholder’s investment in the fund? Or, conversely, would such a requirement not benefit shareholders? For example, could it reduce shareholders’ ability to compare classes of a fund? Should there be limits on the number or types of classes that a single annual report may cover to reduce potential complexity or length? For example, should we prohibit an annual report transmitted to retail shareholders from including disclosure related to a fund’s institutional class? Are there potential complexities or burdens associated with such an approach? Please explain.
    https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2020/33-10814.pdf
    The comments received by the SEC can be found here:
    https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-09-20/s70920.htm
    Few comments addressed the streamlined reports, as the bulk of the proposal deals with changes to the "full" reports. One comment worth noting is from Barbara Roper (at the time, the director of investor protection for the Consumer Federation of America).
    Seeing [multiple share class] information could, for example, cause the investor to question why they are invested in shares that carry higher costs or suffer poorer performance relative to other available share classes.
    ...
    We are therefore at least preliminarily opposed to the idea ...of permitting funds to reflect only a subset of share classes in a shareholder report. Despite our initial skepticism, we believe this approach is worth testing to see whether it results in a better investor experience. If testing demonstrates that limiting the number of share classes reported on in a single report offers benefits that outweigh the potential downsides, the Commission should proceed accordingly. However, ...
    https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-09-20/s70920-8204376-227513.pdf
    All I can find in Capital Research and Management's comments regarding the streamlined reports is that it is generally supportive of adopting them:
    We support the Commission proposing a rule that creates a new streamlined shareholder report with key information and provides funds with an alternative way to keep shareholders informed instead of delivering annual prospectus updates to existing shareholders. We believe this approach furthers the Commission’s goal to address the concern that shareholder report and prospectus disclosures may appear redundant or inconsistent to shareholders, as well as the belief that prospectus disclosures in particular may often be less relevant to the informational needs of a shareholder who is simply monitoring his or her fund investments. However...
    https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-09-20/s70920-8204356-227509.pdf
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    @Sven
    This is a chart of the 10 yr yield for the past year. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on the line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date.
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund
    Interesting question...I do remember BLNDX falling ~ 5% in a day I believe it was autumn of 21'. Kept thinking, nah, it's too early for a distribution etc...it was real...it stung.
    ISTM it all depends on how much you have in that investment and how much/if you are hedged..
    I'd ask what is the largest drawndown in a week...most flushes seem to take place over 3 days...some Friday night are tougher than others if you get the whammo down in your portfolio and have all weekend to fester on it...
    I also remember reading something online where some "limit" what they are willing to risk in the market based on what they earn in 12 or 6 months or 3 months etc...my personal limit is 3 months but likely cause I am so risk adverse?
    Good Luck and Good Health to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    @hank, Many thanks to your info on what Fed and the market control. I too notice the 10 year treasury yield has moved up from the low 1.3% (1/5/23) to 3.74% (2/10/23), and that is sizable change in short time. High quality IG bond funds I am invested are yielding 4.0% that is encouraging from that of last year.
    For the w/e Feb. 3, LQD was +5.2%, HYG was +4.25% and AGG was +3.17%, YTD. This past week found these 3 cut in half for YTD performance. A serious 'hair cut'.
    @catch22, profit taking - interesting only for a small gain. Bond market this year is quite volatile even in high quality bonds including treasuries and IG bonds. I left the bond sector since fall 2021 and bought back some % this year with the yields being more attractive at about 4%. Still trying to better understand the bond volatility and opportunities to make some gain this year.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Hi @Sven
    Strictly my own opinion, but as the 10 year Treasury still remains a benchmark for many forms of consumer loans, it's yield forms a benchmark for other bond yields, too. Although the yield curve that has been and is in place for some time now, fully perverts the normal historic range of yield spreads with 'somewhat normal economic conditions'; of which is not clear at this time, eh? The economy is in a 'coin toss' right now, at least for the big money and traders. I do my best to understand where the money wants to travel within bonds, not unlike equities.
    As with the list of bond NAV's, there are many different sectors for various needs; not unlike the 11 sectors of the SP-500, and they find there own path for a variety of reasons.
    For this past week, I think we find a pure profit taking event with some bonds.
    For the w/e Feb. 3, LQD was +5.2%, HYG was +4.25% and AGG was +3.17%, YTD. This past week found these 3 cut in half for YTD performance. A serious 'hair cut'.
    Hopefully, others will offer a viewpoint.
    I've placed a link below about the large issuance of bonds early this year that may help define some of this week's sell down.
    Record global bond issuance to start 2023.
  • What to do?
    Over the long term they do slightly better than FXAIX
    Do they do any better, or are you just looking relative to a particular moment in time (i.e. now)? Comparing their three year rolling cumulative returns by calendar years (e.g. Jan 2019-Dec 2021), the figures (from M* charts) are:
         2020-2022  '19-'21	'18-'20	'17-'19	'16-'18	'15-'17	'14-'16	'13-'15	'12-'14	'11-'13
    FXAIX 24.75% 100.32% 48.80% 53.10% 30.38% 38.28% 29.02% 52.54% 74.51% 56.77%
    SCHD 44.56% 90.14% 38.51% 45.45% 32.84% 40.22% 29.53% 48.09% 65.32% 56.42%
    CDC 38.27% 78.90% 27.03% 30.48% 31.78% 38.76% - - - -
    Over its lifetime (July 1, 2014 through Feb 10, 2023), CDC has done slightly worse than FXAIX, returning a cumulative 138.04% vs FXAIX's 143.78%.
    More importantly, all the cumulative figures ending Dec 31, 2022 are significantly skewed by FXAIX's sizeable underperformance in 2022 relative to the other funds: -18.13% vs -3.23% (SCHD) or -7.76% (CDC). (FXAIX has done better so far this year.)
    I'm not knocking any of these funds, and I can certainly see the point in suggesting dividend oriented funds to someone who has been focused on cash returns. It's just that there's a tendency for people to look at "what have you done for me lately" even when trying not to - sometimes it's baked into the numbers.
    For a set and forget fund that covers all bases ("foreign, global, world and U.S", and fixed income) one might consider VGWIX / VGYAX. Not an index fund, but still a low cost fund. Its 35/65 stock/bond mix may also suit someone moving from a cash portfolio. Funds with more traditional blends include VGWLX / VGWAX and CIBFX (though jumbo). A drawback of these funds (notably the Vanguard ones) is a dearth of EM investment. You may consider that a plus (arguably a more conservative approach).